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NFL Betting Primer: Top Picks & Player Prop Bets for Every Game (Week 15)

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Let’s dive into the action for Week 15’s slate of NFL games! Here are my top picks and player prop bets for each NFL Week 15 game.

    And there’s more! Catch my new weekly video on FantasyPros, where I highlight the week’s most enticing early lines on Prizepicks. The excitement of NFL Week 15 is just around the corner, so stay tuned!

    Before we leap into this week’s games, let’s rewind to the highlights and lowlights of Week 14’s matchups.

    Week 14

    • Spread: 4-9
    • Totals: 9-4
    • Player Props: 21-17

    Overall: 34-30 (53%)

    2023 season

    • Spread: 76-87 (47%)
    • Totals: 107-74 (59%)
    • Player Props: 228-204 (53%)
    • ML: 6-4

    Overall: 401-389 (51%)

    Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value, & Star Rating >>

    NFL Betting Primer

    As always, at the top, I’ll feature my top bets, categorized into underdogs, favorites, and Over/Unders. This quick-hitting guide is your shortcut to accessing my best plays. Keep an eye out for my favorite player props, released in a separate article every Saturday. Let’s dive into the Sunday frenzy of NFL Week 15!

    Top Favorites:

    • Titans -3
    • Falcons – 3
    • Ravens -3
    • Browns -3

    Top Underdogs:

    • Giants +5.5
    • Cardinals +12.5
    • Commanders +6.5

    Top Totals:

    • ATL/CAR under 33
    • ARI/SF over 48.5
    • NYG/NO under 39
    • CLE/CHI under 37.5
    • DAL/BUF under 49.5
    • KC/NE under 37

    Green Bay Packers (-3.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

    The Packers are 2-4 toward the over at home this season averaging 39 points per game. These teams have averaged 41.5 points per game.

    Four of the Packers’ last five games have gone OVER the total points line.

    But both defenses rank inside the top-10 in the fewest red-zone conversions allowed. Both offenses rank outside the top-10 in scoring in the red zone.

    Tampa Bay is also 8-5 toward the under this season. 7 of the Buccaneers’ last 11 games have gone UNDER the total points line.

    Both teams are riding 3-game streaks of overs entering this contest. But based on the matchup at hand, it seems like we are potentially inline for more of a letdown spot from both sides offensively. The Packers have won 16 of their last 17 games in December. 4-2 overall at home. As favorites…1-2 overall. The Packers are also 6-2 when they allow fewer than 23 points on defense. 5-3 ATS.

    But the Buccaneers have averaged more than 23 points per game on the road this season.

    The Packers are now 6-7 straight up with wins over the Bears, Saints (Derek Carr played half a game) Rams (led by Brett Rypien), Chargers team coached by Brandon Staley, the Lions, and the Chiefs. I’ll admit that I was swayed by some of their most recent wins. And they have mostly taken care of business against vastly inferior teams.

    The Buccaneers have covered the spread in six of their last seven road games. TB has also played under super thin margins. (-0.6 average scoring margin, 18th). The Packers’ average scoring margin is +1 (13th). The Buccaneers are 3-4 in one-score games while GB is 4-5.

    The Buccaneers’ defensive strengths are in their ability to stop the run. 16th in run defense DVOA. But their secondary is a mess, and Jordan Love can take advantage. However, to the extent he can do so with injuries surrounding his pass-catchers makes it less likely we see a ceiling performance from this offense. But Jayden Reed looks probable to play, so that bodes well for GB’s offense.

    Tampa Bay also ranks 6th-worst in 3rd down conversion rate on defense. TB’s defense is all about bending but not breaking, and that will probably not work versus the Packers that have the 6th-best third-down conversion offense.

    Last week they allowed 24 points to the Giants. They wouldn’t have covered even if Big Blue didn’t hit the game-winning field goal, but they would have won.

    With the O/U set a 42.5 – remember these teams average 41.5 points – I think that’s the play to make. Along with backing the Buccaneers +3.5, because these teams rank extremely closely from everything I can tell. But there’s no denying that Tampa Bay has been a strong bet on the road, where the market has continued to undervalue them. And I don’t feel comfortable taking GB with the 3+hook.

    All in all, this game doesn’t have any of my true “best bets” from a sides/totals perspective.

    There are some player props I like a ton.

    Rachaad White led the rushing game with 102 yards on 25 carries, while Chase Edmonds also contributed effectively with 40 yards on 8 attempts. Bell cow with an 85% snap share.

    With White getting fed left and right, I love taking the overs on his 64.5 rushing yardage prop against the run-funnel Green Bay Packers. The last five RBs the Packers have faced have gone OVER their projected rushing totals. With a run-heavy game plan on deck, expect little passing production from Baker Mayfield.

    Only two QBs that have faced the Packers this season have gone for 270 yards plus. 8 of the last 10 QBs that have faced GB’s defense have finished under their projected passing yards. Mayfield has gone under 225.5 passing yards in 3 straight games. Pair it with the Rachaad White rushing yardage prop.

    Note that both of these props have been heavily bet up and down, respectively, since the lines opened.

    The Buccaneers defense is allowing the 3rd-most receiving yards per game to WRs in 2023. When the Reed props drop, you pounce.

    The Bucs are also allowing the 6th-most yards and 5th-most receptions per game to tight ends. Last week, Packers tight end Tucker Kraft had 64 yards on 4 catches on 4 targets (100% snap share). He had 37 yards the previous week. Take the over on his receiving yards props this week.

    My Picks

    • Under 42.5
    • Buccaneers +3.5

    My Props

    Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons (-3)

    The Falcons have covered the spread in five of their last six games against NFC South opponents. Against familiar opponents in the division, Arthur Smith’s squad has come through.

    The Panthers defense can’t stop the run – very problematic against a team that would voluntarily run the ball 40 times and not throw once to avoid putting the ball in Desmond Ridder’s hands. When these teams first played back in Week 1, the Falcons posted a -13% pass rate over expectation. Ridder attempted 18 passes.

    Overs on Bijan Robinson rushing? You bet. Over 64.5 rushing yards. Or better yet, take the over on his 2.5 receptions prop. Gone over in 3 straight games. His average this season is 3.1 receptions per game. When he faced the Panthers back in Week 1, Robinson caught all 6 of his targets for 27 yards.

    Robinson led with 6 carries and 5 targets in the first half of last week’s game. Robinson finished with 34 yards and a touchdown on 10 attempts. The rookie contributed more to the receiving game with 54 yards on 5 receptions from 7 targets.

    The betting line opened with Falcons as 3-point road favorites, where it has stayed at the time of this writing. As we have said in many versions of the BP Primer, Atlanta is not a team you want to lay points with on the road or when they are a favorite. 4-2 at home versus 2-4 on the road. Away from Atlanta, they have averaged a meager 15 points per game. They also failed to cover the spread as favorites in 7 of their last 8 games.

    Woof. But what element works in their favor is that they are still due for some positive one-score game regression. Last year, the Falcons lost 8 of their 10 one-possession games.

    This year? 4-5 entering Week 15 after losing by one score to the Buccaneers last week at home. Would presume they come out of the positive side of this mark this week.

    Atlanta’s defense is also superior in forcing punts, ranking third-best in the third-down conversion rate allowed. Any guesses to how Carolina’s third-down conversion rate is on offense? 22nd. Atlanta also has the No. 2 red-zone defense. The Panthers defense ranks 31st in the red zone. Their offense ranks 22nd.

    Back the Dirty Birds on the road and take the under. Run heavy game scripts from both teams don’t project for a high-scoring environment.

    And as gross as it is to back Ridder on the road, HE is the only reason why the Falcons are just 3-point favorites. But with the Falcons running game and their underrated defense poising such significant matchup advantages against Carolina, I don’t think Ridder will be put in a position to blow this for us.

    After all, Ridder covered on the road two weeks ago against a bad Jets team. The Panthers might be worse. No NFC teams are worse ATS than the Panthers (2-10-1, 23%) as they boast the worst record overall in the NFL.

    More on the total.

    Six of the Panthers’ last seven games have gone UNDER the total points line. The Panthers are a perfect 5-0 toward the under at home (average 36.4 points scored).

    These teams have averaged 40.5 points scored. But Carolina’s offense has also been worse at home, averaging under 14 points per game.

    Atlanta is 9-4 toward the under this season.

    On to the more fun stuff. Player Props!

    Adam Thielen went over his receiving yards last week, against a heavy man coverage team. The Falcons are not that team, playing more zone than man coverage. Thielen did nothing the first time these teams played in Week 1, posting 12 receiving yards. Even though the Falcons have been bad versus slot receivers, it may not matter with Bryce Young at QB.

    Drake London was a perfect 5-for-5 for 73 yards in the first half of last week’s game. Flew OVER the receiving yards prop at the jump. London led the receiving group in the end with 10 receptions for 172 yards on 12 targets (28% target share and nearly 180 air yards). Monster game.

    But I have to admit this game for London – as great as it was – was very much matchup-based. He’s great at home and the Buccaneers’ pass defense is horrible.

    Carolina is a run-funnel and they have an underrated secondary. On the road in Week 15, I’d be fading London in most cases for fear of a predictably heavy run-game script dialed up by head coach Arthur Smith. The weather in Carolina also forecasts for rain/wind.

    Because Carolina is competent against the pass. 11 of 12 QBs have finished UNDER their passing yardage props when facing the Panthers this season.

    Therefore, take the UNDER on London’s 56.5 receiving yards prop against Carolina on the road. London has gone over 50 yards on the road just twice this season, in 6 road games.

    And in the games he went over, it was against the horrible pass defenses of the Bucs/Titans. Carolina held him catchless when these teams played in Week 1. Carolina is also facing the 3rd-fewest targets and 8th-fewest yards to WRs this season.

    Younghoe Koe LESS THAN 1.5 field goals. The Panthers are tied for the league lead in the fewest field goal attempts faced this season (1.3). Koo has gone less than 1.5 FGs in 2 of his last 3 games. Koo missed two FGs last week.

    It’s the run-heavy nature of this game from both sides that has me HAMMERING the over on Chuba Hubbard’s 15.5 rushing attempts. Gone over in the last three games. Gone over in 3 of the 4 games called by Thomas Brown as the team’s offensive coordinator. Again, Hubbard has averaged 24 carries in the last 2 games.

    The Panthers’ defense has also been elite versus tight ends, allowing the 2nd fewest catches allowed to tight ends this season. 8 of the last 10 tight ends Carolina has faced have gone UNDER their projected receptions totals. Also have allowed the fewest fantasy points to TEs aligned in the slot, where Kyle Pitts runs a lot of his routes.

    He was held to two catches for 44 yards when he last faced the Panthers earlier this season. Take the under on his 3.5 receptions prop. He’s gone under in 8 of his 13 games played this season. Gone under in 4 of his last 6 road games and 5 of his last 7 games played.

    My Picks

    • Under 33
    • Falcons -3

    My Props

    New Orleans Saints (-5.5) vs. New York Giants

    The Saints have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games against NFC opponents.

    But more notably, they are on a 7-game streak of failing to cover the spread after a victory. It’s par for the course with the Saints, who have been one of the biggest disappointments this season compared to their preseason expectations.

    The Saints have failed to cover the spread in 7 of their last 8 home games. And the Saints have also failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 13 games as favorites.

    The Saints continue to struggle immensely in the red zone (22nd) offensively.

    The Giants have lost five of their last six road games.

    However, they can and will be able to run the ball with Saquon Barkley. And that’s a key part of how the Giants can pull the upset against the Saints. +220 on the Giants ML.

    Not only running the ball with Barkley – as the Saints have allowed the league’s most rushing yards to RBs over the last four weeks at 5.1 yards per carry – but they are notorious for struggling against mobile QBs.

    Tommy DeVito flashed his rushing upside in recent weeks rushing for 40 or more yards in two of his last 4 games. The Saints are allowing the 3rd-most rushing yards to QBs this season. Take the over on Tommy Cutlet’s rushing yardage props this week when they get posted.

    The biggest issue facing DeVito is his high sack rate. He avoided it last week versus Green Bay, but can he continue to make magic (or Mariana sauce) in the face of pressure? The Saints have faced the league’s easiest schedule and rank 30th in sacks. 5th worst in sack rate.

    Against a super overrated Saints team, give me the Giants +6. DeVito is 3-0 ATS over his last three starts. The Saints have COVERED three games…all season.

    And do not let last week’s final box score of 28-6 fool you. The Saints were out-gained by nearly 100 yards on offense by the 1-12 Panthers. Derek Carr was sitting on 75 passing yards halfway through the 4th quarter. Woof.

    As for the total. Under. Shocker.

    The Saints are 2-4 toward the over at home this season. An average of 43 points have been scored.

    Fifteen of the Saints’ last 19 games have gone UNDER the total points line.

    9 of the Giants’ last 11 games have gone under the projected total.

    My Picks

    • Under 39
    • Giants +5.5

    My Props

    Tennessee Titans (-3) vs. Houston Texans

    Three words folks. Titans. At. Home. Fade them on the road (which should have worked last week) but back at that home…just last like the last 2 weeks.

    Need I say more? The line opened TEN as a 1.5-point home favorite, and it has moved to TEN -3. I think this is less about their big win on Monday night – nothing about the 14-point comeback is sustainable in any shape or form unless you bring momentum into play – and more about the Texans’ injuries.

    Regardless, you know where I am going to settle. Titans -2.5.

    The Titans have covered the spread in four of their last five games at Nissan Stadium. 4-1 straight up in the Music City. Note that their one failed cover came in an OT loss to the Colts where they had a 3-point lead in OT. Top-10 scoring offense at home this season.

    Ride the Big Dog, Derrick Henry, for another week at home. Henry is NOTORIOUS for steamrolling defenses in early December. 5.5 career yards per carry in December for Henry – the highest mark in any month. He has 75-plus rushing yards in all the Titans home games this season.

    And we know Henry’s track record against the Texans. He has 100 or more yards in five of his last 6 games versus the Texans. 4 of those games he went for 200-plus.

    Overall, Houston is 6-5 versus the spread over their last 11 games. There are a lot of question marks when it comes to handicapping this game based on the myriad of injuries Houston is dealing with. But what we do know is that the Texans have continued to be overvalued by the market every single week.

    Rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud will miss the game after suffering a concussion last week. Nico Collins reaggravated a calf injury from earlier this season last week. Even with Stroud under center, it’d be asking a lot from a rookie QB to go on the road and win with Noah Brown and Robert Woods as his top 2 WRs. Note that his passing yards have dropped in six straight games.

    The Titans’ pass defense isn’t good, but a hobbled Stroud or Davis Mills with limited weaponry and offensive lineman will struggle.

    The Texans have gone under in 8 of their last 11 games, which featured them playing offenses that are averaging fewer than 20 points per game.

    The Titans are 3-2 toward the over at home, averaging 44 points per game.

    More importantly, ten of the Titans’ last 11 games following a win have gone UNDER the total points line. Considering they also have the No. 1 red-zone defense, I lean under. But I mostly just prefer the Titans side.

    My Picks

    • Titans -3

    My Props

    • N/A

    Cleveland Browns (-3) vs. Chicago Bears

    The Browns have covered the spread in each of their last five games as home favorites, winners of their last four home games. The Browns have also covered the spread in 6 of their last 7 home games.

    At home this season, Cleveland is 6-1 straight up and 6-1 ATS.

    And as I pointed out last week, they have stark road/home splits on defense. Elite at home, dreadful on the road.

    When Chicago has established an effective ground game – as they did versus Minnesota, Las Vegas, New Orleans, Carolina and Detroit but not vs. the LA Chargers – their offense has been effective, and they have played games tight. 6-2 ATS in recent weeks.

    This may not be the case against the Browns, who have allowed the 7th-fewest rushing yards per game to QBs. And despite playing the league’s highest rate of man coverage – which lends itself to a plethora of QB rushing – the Browns have limited opposing signal-callers to less than 14 rushing yards per game. In two games against Lamar Jackson, the Browns held the Ravens’ dynamic dual threat to 27 and 41 rushing yards.

    Five of the Bears’ last six games have gone UNDER the total points line. The Browns are 5-2 toward the under at home. 33 points scored on average.

    But eight of the Browns’ last 10 home games have gone UNDER the total points line. The new defensive trend is beginning to form, as the Bears’ defense rounds itself out after a tough start to the season. 2-0 toward the under the last two weeks even after the team started 6-0 toward the over with Justin Fields as the starting QB.

    The Bears have one of the league’s best run defenses allowing just 69 yards per game to opposing backs at a top-5 mark: 3.6 yards per carry.

    For props, I love the under on Joe Flacco’s passing yards at 226.5 yards. 8 of the last 11 QBs facing the Bears have gone UNDER their yardage totals, including 6 of the last 7. The Bears’ pass defense has improved dramatically since a rocky start. 3rd lowest yards per attempt faced the last 3 weeks. They haven’t allowed more than 225 passing yards to any QB since Week 8 (Justin Herbert).

    The matchup in Cleveland will be tough for the Bears’ passing game. Leaning toward the under on Bears passing yards prop early in the week, despite the elite connection between Justin Fields/D.J. Moore. D.J. Moore’s prop line is set at 62.5 receiving yards against the Browns’ defense that has held WRs to the second-lowest receiving yards per game.

    But I love the OVER on Jerome Ford’s receiving props. Look for them when they get released. The Bears are allowing the most receiving yards to RBs this season.

    My Picks

    • Browns -3
    • Under 37.5

    My Props

    Miami Dolphins (-8.5) vs. New York Jets

    The Jets have failed to cover the spread in six of their last 7 games. The Dolphins have covered the spread in 9 of their last 10 games against teams that held a losing record.

    Miami is 4-2 ATS and 5-1 straight up at home this season, winning by no less than two TDs in all but 2 contests.

    They have been a solid bet backing at home, even as heavy favorites. 8-2 overall as a favorite.

    I believe – as does the market – Miami can mostly overwhelm bad teams and fail to beat good teams. But that’s when the team has their MVP, Tyreek Hill, healthy in the lineup.

    When these lines were available before MNF, the Dolphins were 12.5-point favorites. They are now 8.5-point favorites. I can’t touch Miami’s side here without knowing the availability of Hill, as the true engine to this offense.

    Even if Miami’s defense has played better than how they started the season, allowing fewer than 285 yards per game in five of their last 6 games. 3-3 toward the O/U.

    Zach Wilson returned from his “benching” last week and played better than he ever has at the NFL level. Some were citing that Wilson was playing more freely, with no pressure of being the Jets quarterback in the future. Whatever caused Wilson’s dramatic improvement last week, Robert Saleh is praying it happens again.

    The Jets allow fewer than 200 passing yards per game to opposing QBs. Only one QB they have faced this season has gone over 256 yards…

    They have also allowed the fewest receiving yards per game to WRs, ranking 3rd in fewest fantasy points per game to perimeter WRs.

    They are more vulnerable versus the run. And I’d bet Mike McDaniel knows this and will be game planning around this strategically with Hill limited due to an ankle injury suffered on Monday night football. But rushing is used more to grind out wins and hit unders, rather than cover TD-plus point spreads and go OVER projected totals.

    7 of the Jets’ last 8 games have gone UNDER the total points line.

    For props, Breece Hall rushing unders at 43.5 yards. He has hit the under in his last five games (7 of last 8) as the Jets cannot run the football on the ground effectively in any way. He got to just 25 yards the last time he faced the Dolphins. Note that last week, Dalvin Cook out-carried  Hall 4 vs 5 in the first half. Hall ended with 10 carries and 40 rushing yards versus Cook’s 13 yards on 7 attempts. 62% snap rate to Cook’s 24% snap share.

    The Dolphins’ defense is going to present major issues for the Jets’ rushing attack. Miami is the 5th best defense vs RBs over the last 4 games in terms of rushing yards allowed.  They are also allowing the lowest explosive run rate at 5.3%. Allowing the fewest rushes over 10 yards (16).

    They haven’t allowed many explosive plays overall on defense, which will put the Jets offense in a bind to score points quickly.

    When these teams first played on Black Friday, the game total under was going to hit. Note that it took a Hail Mary pick-six to move the game from 16 points scored in the first half alone.

    Miami is 4-2 toward the over at home this season. But the Jets suffocating defense has me strongly just backing the under. Bad weather is also in the forecast. And I don’t want to bet on the Dolphins offense without Hill (or him not at 100%) nor the Jets offense with Wilson at the helm.

    Forced to pick a side, I lean toward New York. 8.5 points is just too big a number against one of the league’s elite defenses. Not to mention all the other injuries aside from Hill the Dolphins are dealing with.

    And they are playing on a short week. Woof.

    My Picks

    • Jets +8.5
    • Under 36.5

    My Props

    New England Patriots vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-8)

    The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games at Gillette Stadium.

    The Patriots have also failed to cover the spread in 12 of their last 14 games as underdogs. The New England Patriots have the worst overall record and ATS in the AFC (23%). 3-10 ATS this season. Woof.

    Money has come in on the Patriots moving the line from -9.5 to -7.5 as the concerns for KC grow. If we could get this line to -6.5, I’d jump on the Chiefs. But outside that, I’ll stay away. I was hoping when the lines first opened, I could snag the Patriots as double-digit home underdogs, but the line went in the total opposite direction.

    So, when in doubt, take the under. Because the trends back it up.

    Five of the Chiefs’ last six games against AFC opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.

    The Patriots games have gone UNDER in four of their last 5 games.

    These teams have combined for an 18-8 record toward the under averaging 37 points scored. This is a matchup between two defenses that rank 9th and 10th in total defensive DVOA.

    7 of the Chiefs’ last 9 games have gone UNDER the total points line. 9/12 QBs that have faced the Chiefs have gone UNDER their projected passing yards total this season.

    This game has everything you’d find in a grind-out gross game. Take the under and don’t look back.

    Or just bet player props…

    The Patriots are the No. 1 defense versus the run, allowing 3.3 yards per carry to opposing RBs. Take the under on Chiefs RB rushing props. Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s rushing line opened at 45.5 rushing yards. Against a horrible Bills run defense last week, he mustered just 39 yards in spot start duty with Isiah Pacheco out. Easy under play.

    Conversely, go over on Rashee Rice’s receptions prop set at 5.5 receptions at plus money. Over three straight games, as his role in the offense has increased. With Bill Belichick throwing everything at stopping tight end Travis Kelce, Rice should be the focal target for the Chiefs passing game. The Patriots defense is a top-12 matchup for WRs in fantasy football this season. Allowing the 3rd-most fantasy points per game to perimeter WRs.

    Last week, Kelce and Rice were the top two targets, receiving 10 targets each (26% target share). Kelce made 6 receptions for 83 yards, while Rice caught 7 passes for 72 yards and a touchdown. 3 red-zone targets.

    But again, it’s a tough matchup for Kelce this week versus the Patriots’ defense, who will undoubtedly throw everything at Kelce to make other Chiefs WRs beat them defensively.

    They have allowed the 5th-fewest yards to TEs this season. Lean toward the LESS than on Kelce’s 62.5 receiving yards prop. He’s gone over that number in 5 of 12 games this season (42%).

    Rice is getting fully unlocked in this offense as all the other Chiefs WRs continue to underwhelm. The rookie played 85% of the snaps. Ran a route on 83% of the dropbacks. Justin Watson was second in routes run.

    My Picks

    • Under 37

    My Props

    Los Angeles Rams (-6.5) vs. Washington Commanders

    The Commanders have lost each of their last four games. But the Commanders have also covered the spread in five of their last six games as road underdogs. 62% ATS as an underdog overall. The Rams are 67% ATS as a favorite.

    The Rams have gone just 6-5-2 ATS this season. Their 6 covers? Seattle twice, Arizona twice and against Joe Flacco and the Ravens last week. Last week was impressive. But their defense was gashed again. Against offenses not named the Browns, Cardinals, Seahawks or injury-plagued Bengals, the Rams have allowed no less than 20 points on defense this season.

    Only thrice (Both vs Seattle and Arizona) have they allowed fewer than 300 yards of offense.

    A super pass-heavy offense lends itself to covering large spreads. And the Rams run mostly zone coverage, which Sam Howell has been much better against this season than man coverage. The Rams also give up a fair share of explosive passing plays – 8.7% – akin to the likes of the Chargers, Colts and Steelers leaky secondaries.

    Also hate to beat a dead horse here, but the Commanders’ covering always goes back to turnovers.

    When the Commanders have failed ATS they have combined for 18 offensive turnovers. In the 5 games they have covered, just 3 turnovers on offense.

    The Rams rank 31st in takeaways on defense this season. As always is the move in shootouts – take the underdog with the points. I like that Washington is also coming off a bye week.

    For the massive total…

    Each of the Commanders’ last four games has gone OVER the total points line. The Rams are 5-3 toward the under their last 8 games.

    Should be noted that if Washington doesn’t allow 20 points on defense, they are a perfect 4-0 toward the under. When they allow 20 points on defense – 8-1 toward the OVER. What are the Rams’ odds of scoring over 19.5 points? -750. Aka an implied probability of 88%.

    Take the over. Washington’s defense can’t stop anyone. And their offense will do whatever it takes to crawl back and try to keep pace.

    These teams averaged 47.5 points this season. So if you don’t want to risk it falling just short of 50.5, just take the Commanders +6.5.

    The player props are mostly all-overs. Correlate them to your heart’s desire. Matthew Stafford’s passing yards and Puka Nacua’s receiving yards. But fade Demarcus Robinson into oblivion. It took him 10 targets last week to catch 3 passes.

    As for the Commanders’ offense, buy the dip on Terry McLaurin. He has caught at least four passes in all but 2 games this season. He caught zero the last time Washington played. That won’t happen two weeks in a row.

    Note that 9 of the 10 most comparable players to McLaurin have gone OVER their receptions prop the last time they faced the Rams defense. LA is allowing the 8th-most fantasy points per game to perimeter WRs this season. This week, Sam Howell acknowledged the offense has not done enough to get McLaurin the ball. Squeaky wheel get the grease.

    My Picks:

    • Commanders +6.5
    • Over 50.5

    My Props:

    Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers (-12.5)

    Each of the Cardinals’ last six home games has gone OVER the total points line. 52 points scored on average with a perfect 6-0 record toward the over this season. With the 49ers’ high-powered offense coming to the desert against the porous Arizona defense, I think this is a huge spot for the game to go over the projected total. The 49ers have scored at least 27 points in 10 of their 13 games played this season.

    Therefore, it’s another week to take the early line projection OVERs on 49ers players. The last time these two teams squared off, it was a massive game for Brandon Aiyuk and CMC.

    Purdy’s favorite target was Aiyuk, who recorded an impressive 148 receiving yards on 6 targets. 129 air yards (79%). McCaffrey showcased his versatility by rushing for 106 yards on 20 carries and scoring three rushing touchdowns. In the passing game, he added 71 receiving yards and a touchdown on 8 targets. His rushing line has opened at 82.5 rushing yards. 3 straight games he’s gone over.

    Deebo Samuel…had no catches or targets back in Week 4. Came into that game banged up. And when one 49ers is hurt/limited all the others FEAST. Well, in this case, just two. George Kittle. 1 for 9 despite running a route on all but one of Purdy’s dropbacks.

    Purdy threw for 283 yards back in that game. In his last 7 games, Purdy has thrown for fewer than 270 yards once. Take the passing yards MORE THAN with Purdy on Prizepicks with his line set at 251.5 passing yards.

    Correlate it with Aiyuk’s receiving yards prop set at 67.5 yards. Projections have him hitting nearly 80 YARDS.  Arizona is allowing the 10th-most receiving yards to WRs this season and the league’s highest catch rate to WRs.

    On the other side of the ball, look at Kyler Murray. He has gone over this in both of his two home starts this season. The Cardinals at home has been a natural shootout, with the team a perfect 6-0 toward the over in Glendale Arizona.

    And no team in the NFL faces a higher pass rate than the 49ers defense. The passing volume will be there for Murray.

    As for sides…

    The spread opened at 49ers -14. I jumped all over that. The line has moved to -12.5. It’s still too many points for a team playing a division road game against a team with a threat at quarterback. Not to mention, the Cardinals are also coming off a bye week. The Cardinals are 4-2 ATS at home this season. 1-1 under Kyler Murray.

    The 49ers were massive double-digit favorites (13.5) at home against a Drew Lock-led Seahawks team and didn’t cover last week. With them on the road, it’s an easy bet to make backing Arizona as double-digit home underdogs.

    Take the under on James Conner’s rushing yards and receiving props in Week 15. Set at 51.5 rushing yards. The 49ers are allowing just 57 rushing yards per game to opposing RBs. This line is 52 yards because that’s how many yards Conner got the last time he played the 49ers defense.

    So if you’d rather shy away, I get it. But I would not shy away from the under on his receiving yards prop. The stone-cold lock the week.

    Conner has been losing out on targets in the passing game to the likes of Emeri Demercado and Michael Carter throughout the season. He’s no longer a locked-and-loaded three-down RB, with him ceding snaps on third downs to other Cardinals RBs.

    Conner has gone over 9.5 receiving yards ONCE this season. In 9 games played. EMPTY THE CLIP.

    The Arizona Cardinals are allowing the 4th-fewest receptions to tight ends this season. George Kittle has 3.5 or more receptions in just two games played this season alongside a healthy Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. With those guys both healthy in Week 4 against the Arizona Cardinals, he caught one pass pass for 9 yards.

    My Picks:

    • Cardinals +12.5
    • Over 48.5

    My Props:

    Buffalo Bills (-2) vs. Dallas Cowboys

    The Dallas Cowboys are 0-2 as an underdog this season. They have been nearly untouchable at home this season, but have been more vulnerable on the road. 3-3 ATS on the road this season compared to 7-1 ATS at home. Keep in mind, that the overall favorites have covered the spread in 12 of the Cowboys’ last 14 games.

    The Buffalo Bills are 5-4 as a favorite this season. Buffalo has failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 9 games.

    They were a mess entering Week 11 – even though their offense has been a top unit across several advanced metrics – but they righted the ship against Zach Wilson-led Jets squad. But other than that, it’s been disappointment after disappointment until last week’s big road win over the Chiefs.

    They have also been a team – similar to Dallas – that has played much better at home. Buffalo has either dramatically underwhelmed or blown their opponents’ doors off this season. Particularly at home where they are 5-1 and 3-3 ATS (including 4 straight unders).

    And despite all their injuries on defense, they have been rock solid in limiting chunk passing plays, ranking 7th in the lowest explosive pass play rate faced. Their defense is allowing the league’s lowest average depth of target.

    This is potentially problematic for the Cowboys’ passing game which thrives on generating chunk pass gains.

    Defensively for Dallas, they play the third-most amount of man coverage in the NFL. Not ideal for a mobile QB like Josh Allen. Allen against man coverage: No. 1 in fantasy points scored and 1st in TD passes (9).

    Stefon Diggs has a 30% target share against man coverage this season with 8 TDs. Gabe Davis has 6 TDs vs man coverage this season with a 13.6 aDOT.

    As for the bloated total at 50.5.

    These teams have averaged 48 points scored on average this season.

    Ten of the Bills’ last 12 games as underdogs have gone OVER the total points line. But in this game, they are home favorites.

    Buffalo is 2-4 toward the under at home this season including 4 straight unders hitting in their last four home games. Overall, five of the Bills’ last six games have gone UNDER the total points line.

    Meanwhile, 7 of the Cowboys’ last 9 games have gone OVER the projected total, with their offense firing on all cylinders the last 6 of 7 games through the air. Dallas has played 8 straight games with 300-plus yards on offense. 20-plus points in all games.

    But the games that didn’t go over? 2 of the 4 road games Dallas has played over that stretch.

    I was shocked when the Bills opened as 1.5-2.5-point favorites against a red-hot Cowboys unit. I felt like taking Dallas +2.5 was too easy of a bet to make. But whenever I have been strongly on the side where I say to myself “why is this team even favored at all” I get burned.

    There’s a reason why Buffalo is the 1.5-point favorite in this game, as I have outlined so far. Their bad luck is starting to regress more in their favor, and I think that will aid them in another tight back-and-forth contest.

    I also prefer the under with such a high game total.

    As for props…

    Only 3 QBs that have faced Dallas have thrown for more than 230 passing yards this season. 7 of the last 10 QBs they have faced have gone UNDER their projected passing yards. More fuel to backing the overall under in this game if Allen’s passing yards aren’t out of control.

    Dawson Knox received 3 targets in Week 14, effectively utilizing them with notable yardage. 3 for 36 yards. He played 47% of the snaps in his first game back.

    That hurt No. 3 WR Khalil Shakir, who saw his snaps drop to 61%. Shakir has only played one game this season with Knox active, where he has gone over 2.5 receptions.

    Dallas is also allowing the 6th-fewest receiving yards and 6th-fewest receptions per game to WRs this season.

    I love the over on Tony Pollard’s rushing yards on the Cowboys’ offense. He has been on a heater after a slow start to the season. He’s gone OVER 51.5 rushing yards in 5 straight games and for 51-plus in 7 straight games. The Bills run defense is allowed the league’s 3rd-highest explosive run rate (12.8%).

    My Picks:

    • Bills -2
    • Under 49.5

    My Props:

     Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Baltimore Ravens (-3)

    Baltimore has covered the spread in the last seven of the last 9 games against a team with a winning record.

    As I have pointed out in previous editions of the BettingPros Primer, the Ravens are a team that plays to the level of their competition. Against good/winning teams, they bring out their best.

    Trevor Lawrence will face a Ravens secondary that has allowed just 203 passing yards per game to opposing QBs this season. Only 2 QBs they have faced since Week 7 has gone over 230 passing yards. The Baltimore defense is allowing the league’s lowest yards per attempt (4.8) and the second-best red-zone conversion rate.

    The Ravens offense ranks 9th best in terms of third-down conversion rate, 6th in red-zone conversion rate and 4th in yards per pass attempt (7.7)

    This is not a favorable matchup for the Jaguars. Take Baltimore to win by a FG-plus on the road. They are the best team in AFC and will show that on Sunday night.

    The Jaguars are 3-4 straight up overall at home while the Ravens are 5-1 on the road this season. Jacksonville is 2-3 as an underdog with just a 40% cover rate as an underdog. They have dropped back-to-back games ATS.

    As for the total…

    The Jaguars are 4-2 toward the over at home this season. An average of 48 points scored. These teams have averaged 45.5 points scored this season. And in their combined last 10 games, 6-4 toward the over.

    The Jags overall are 7-6 toward the over this season. The Ravens are 7-6 toward the under. 11 of 15 last Ravens’ games have gone UNDER the projected total.

    When they don’t fear an opposing QB, the Ravens tend to go under the game total.

    Lawrence has shown enough to move this offense even in tougher matchups, so I lean toward the over at 42.5 points in this game. I know Baltimore’s offense will score, and the Jaguars have scored 24-plus points in four straight games (all games hitting the over). 27 points against the Browns in Cleveland is no easy feat to accomplish.

    There’s enough offensive firepower on both sides – along with some injuries on Baltimore’s defense – to back the over at 42.5 points.

    Every QB the Jaguars have faced this season has gone OVER their projected passing yards total except for Kenny Pickett (injured) and Will Levis (who couldn’t complete a deep pass to save his life) back in Week 11.

    I love the over on Lamar Jackson’s passing yards prop this week. 214.5 passing yards is too low. Lamar has gone over this number in 3 of his last 4 games. Also, the Jags have allowed 296 or more passing yards in 4 of their last 5 games.

    Correlate it with overs on Odell Beckham Jr. OBJ’s yardage prop is suppressed at a lowly 37.5 yards. He’s got 40-plus in four of his last 5 games. Last week, Beckham had 4 receptions for 97 yards and a touchdown. He received 10 targets (25% target share, 41% air yards share, 218 air yards). OBJ only played 53% of the snaps, as the team monitors is workload. But it’s clear that when he is on the field, he is highly involved in the passing game.

    The Jaguars are allowing the 6th-most receiving yards per game to WRs this season – including the most over the last four weeks at nearly 200 yards per game.

    Evan Engram has gone over 47.5 yards in 8 of 13 games this season (62%) including three straight. Baltimore has allowed an over to an opposing tight end in 5 of their last 6 games, with four tight ends going over 50 yards.

    With the loss of safety Kyle Hamilton, Engram should be peppered with targets over the middle of the field as Trevor Lawrence’s most reliable target. In Week 14, Engram, caught 11 passes for 95 yards and 2 touchdowns, showing his significant role in the offense. Engram was targeted 12 times, giving him a target share of 24% (2 red-zone targets).

    The Jaguars are facing the 3rd-fewest rushing attempts per game this season. Gus Bus has gone under his rushing attempts prop and yardage totals in his last 2 games as the team ramps up rookie Keaton Mitchell.

    My Picks:

    • Ravens -3
    • Over 41.5

    My Props:

    Seattle Seahawks vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-3)

    The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games against teams that held a losing record. Good teams win. Great teams cover.

    Since Week 2, Seattle has been 6-5-1 ATS. The favorites have won 9 of the last 10 Seahawks games. When Seattle is a dog, good things don’t happen. Seattle is 1-6 as an underdog. The Seahawks have lost each of their last six games as underdogs.

    3-5 ATS in their last 8 games played (2-2 over the last four games). The Seahawks have covered the spread in five of their last 7 games as home underdogs.

    The biggest issue for the Seattle offense has been a lack of TDs scored. 22nd-ranked red-zone scoring offense. Lucky for them the Eagles cannot stop anyone in the red zone. 30th in red-zone conversion rate allowed.

    The Eagles have also covered just 3 spreads when they have allowed 20 points on defense. 3-4-2 ATS when their defense allows 20 points. Been very lucky to snag pushes at the right times. These teams average 48.5 points scored per game.

    Jalen Hurts has thrown for fewer than 250 yards in 4 of his last 5 games. Seattle in their last four home games has allowed one 250-yard passer (Sam Howell). Hurts has failed to pass for 250 yards in 4 of his last 5 games played.

    4 of the last 6 QBs the Eagles have faced have gone for 300-plus passing yards.

    This Eagles team is not what its record at 10-3 suggests. They have been the luckiest team this season, rallying from first-half deficits every week. The last two weeks the Eagles have been exposed to the 49ers and the Cowboys. It was bound to happen based on how close to the margins the Eagles were winning against NFC juggernauts.

    Interestingly enough, the Seahawks have played the same two teams (in reverse order) but have fared better despite losing both games as well.

    The Eagles have been outscored 75 to 32 in the last two weeks vs SF/DAL. Outgained 657 to 850 yards. 0-2 ATS. Meanwhile Seattle (playing both games on the road with one start having their backup QB in) has been outscored just 69 to 51. Outgained 730 to 938. 2-0 ATS.

    Simply put, against common opponents the last two weeks, Seattle has held their own MORE on the road, covering both those games versus the Eagles.

    For the total. 6 of the Seahawks’ last 8 home games have gone UNDER the total points line. The Eagles are 7-6 toward the over this season, but it’s been mostly home games that have gone over. Last 6 road games? 5-1 toward the under including back-to-back against the Chiefs/Cowboys.

    Lean toward the under on Monday night football, and the Seahawks with the points at home. Classic case of the Eagles winning (yet again) but failing ATS with only a FG victory.

    Seattle ranks 22nd in DVOA versus tight ends, allowing 54 receiving yards per game to the position this season. Like the over on Dallas Goedert’s 4.5 receptions.

    The Eagles are allowing the most fantasy points per game to slot WRs this season. Seahawks slot WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba had 8 targets last week, approximately 23% target share (5 targets in the first half). JSN led the team in targets for the second straight game, but he only managed 4 catches for 25 yards. Played 71% of the snaps and ran a route on 79% of the dropbacks. Both increased from last week. He should fly over 42.5 receiving yards this Monday night.

    My Picks:

    • Seahawks +3
    • Under 47.5

    My Props:

    Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

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