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NFL Betting Primer: Top Picks & Player Prop Bets for Every Game (Week 2)

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Introducing the Week 2 edition of the NFL Betting primer, proudly brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m thrilled to be your guide as we delve into each game on the NFL slate. Here, you’ll find expert insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and enticing player props that could pave the way for impressive single-game parlays. Note that early in the week the props are limited to just Underdog and Prizepicks, until normal sportsbooks release their player props closer to Sunday.

Before we dive into Week 2, let’s take a moment to celebrate our solid performance in Week 1, where our picks were on point and made a lot of bettors happy!

The official record on the recommended picks from Week 1 (not including Thursday night football).

  • Spread: 5-7
  • Totals: 5-2
  • Player Props: 10-9
  • ML: 0-1
  • Overall: 20-18

We are also off to a RED-HOT start coming off a Week 2 Thursday night clean 4-0 sweep with the over, the Vikings covering and both starting tight ends going over their projected receptions totals. Fade Kirk Cousins in prime time? Couldn’t be me.

Whether you’re a seasoned betting aficionado or just beginning your journey into the captivating world of NFL wagering - like myself, now that my state has embraced sports betting - this primer is your go-to source for valuable perspectives and well-informed picks for the upcoming NFL week.

Prepare to approach the NFL season with a sharp betting focus as we break down the Week 2 matchups and unveil our favorite bets and top picks. So, without further ado, here are my top selections for all remaining 15 Week 2 games. Get ready to elevate your NFL betting game!

NFL Betting Primer

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons – Spread Line: ATL -1.5

The Packers’ convincing Week 1 victory over the Bears may not be what it was all cracked up to BE. At least from the Green Bay perspective. The Bears' defense is a mess, specifically in the red zone where the Packers went a perfect 3-for-3. But I am not sure we should back the Packers as 1.5-point road favorites after they posted an average net success rate in Week 1.

Although Chicago lost handily, the game was closer in the first half before a few big plays and a pick-six buried the Bears in the second half. I think we see more of a back-and-forth contest between the Falcons and the Packers.

And Atlanta's defense is a much bigger threat to Jordan Love than Chicago. The Bears cannot rush the passer and that was super apparent on Sunday. Love was the second-least pressured QB in Week 1 (20%). When Bryce Young faced the Falcons in Week 1, he was pressured on 45% of his dropbacks. That was the sixth-most among QBs in Week 1.

Speaking of pressure, it was the same story with Desmond Ridder versus Carolina and Justin Fields versus the Packers defensive line. Chicago's OL was a mess and Fields was pressured on 53% of his dropbacks in Week 1. Ridder - like Love - was kept upright seeing just a 22% pressure rate.

Both QBs in this matchup benefitted from a lack of pass rush from opponents in Week 1.  That will not be the case in Week 2, which is why the total for this game has been bet down from 42.5 to 40.5. I'd bet the under if I could find any 42.5 lines still out there. Atlanta wants to run the football, and GB won't move the ball as easily versus a tougher defensive opponent on the road.

And I still think the advantage in the trenches slightly goes to the Falcons. They are a strong run-blocking unit that has shown the ability to run over any defense dating back to last season.

Let's also not pretend the Packers are an unstoppable run defense after they finished 31st in DVOA versus the run last season. And I fully expect the Falcons offensive to take more advantage of their RBs in the receiving game than the Bears did.

Chicago targeted its RBs on 44% of its passes in Week 1. Atlanta led all teams with a 53% target share of its RBs.

That paired with a strong rushing attack makes it less likely that Ridder is put into a position to have to go out and win the game, which is what the Falcons would prefer. As 2023's newest game manager, I'll continue to ride Desmond Ridder's perfect home-winning streak. The former Cincinnati quarterback has never lost a home game in college or the pros. At worst, they cover the spread even in a failing effort.

It should be a run-fest given the Packers also ranked 5th in neutral game script rushing rate. Atlanta allowed the Panthers to rush 154 yards at 4.8 yards per clip in Week 1.

Given the tightness of the two teams, the under might be the safest play. But the Falcons losing 8 of their 10 games in one-possession games last year has me betting this is a spot where the regression kicks in. We’ve seen the Vikings be extremely “unlucky” through two weeks of play after finishing 11-0 in one-score games last season. I expect the opposite to occur for the Dirty Birds, starting in Week 2.

Considering the low total in this game, you bet we are going back to the player prop unders. Kyle Pitts barely got to his receiving prop last week, while Drake London was nowhere to be found. I am leaning toward the latter having another tough day at the office in Week 2.

We saw D.J. Moore just got absolutely erased by Jaire Alexander and the GB Packers secondary in Week 1. Darnell Mooney was the only WR who was productive, and it was all production from inside the slot. 4 catches for 53 yards and 1 TD on 6 slot targets. London ran two slot routes last week. 9% slot rate on a 91% route participation.

Keep him on your fantasy football bench in a bad matchup and bet his under. I'm afraid things might be unfolding badly for London in 2023 with Ridder at quarterback in this run-heavy approach. A poor stretch of production is not out of London's range of outcomes. After a hot start as a rookie, London went Weeks 4-12 without exceeding 40 receiving yards.

Las Vegas Raiders at Buffalo Bills – Spread Line: BUF -8.5

The Bills opened as 7.5-point home favorites, and the line as moved all the way to 8.5/9.5 at some sportsbook. Bettors are not buying into the Las Vegas Raiders' road win over the Broncos - which I nailed last week as did the Jakobi Meyers over 4.5 receptions prop - and forgiving Buffalo for a prime-time OT collapse versus an Aaron Rodgers-less Jets team.

But Raiders QB Jimmy Garoppolo is 17-9 over his last 25 games. Garoppolo is no world-beater, but when's kept healthy and upright, he can win games for the teams he plays on as he showed in Week 1.

And the Raiders are hardly short on offensive weapons between Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs.

Jacobs should be able to find running room versus a run defense that got diced up for 172 yards at 6.1 yards per carry. Also don't believe there's a Bills cornerback that can hang with alpha WR, Davante Adams.

They also have Hunter Renfrow if Jakobi Meyers can't play due to a concussion. And the Raiders OL shined in Week 1, allowing just four pressures on Jimmy G (14%).

The Bills also have been super overrated against the spread since they started to fall off last season. Reminder, this team was 13.5-home favorites against the Miami Dolphins starting a 3rd-string QB, and they won by 3 points last year in the postseason. Buffalo is 4-8 against the spread over their last 12 games, many of which they have been heavy favorites in. Will they win? No doubt. But Buffalo showed their fair share of issues Monday night on both sides of the ball which suggests to me the Raiders can hang around to cover the largest spread (tied with Dallas and New York) on the Week 2 betting card. The Bills aren't the 10-point home favorite you want to bet on this week.

Given how undervalued the Raiders' offense is, I also like the over in this game at 46.5 (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook). The Bills are 6-6 toward the over in their last 12 games, but three of the unders have been versus the Jets (including this past MNF). LV's team total is also firmly in play at just 17.5 points (DK Sportsbook -112)

The Raiders know they don't have a strong secondary, so they sat back comfortably in a two-high shell versus the Broncos in Week 1. The result? 12 targets for a 38% target share to the team's RBs. That was the 4th-highest in Week 1. Denver targeted TEs at the 7th-highest rate (22%). Russell Wilson threw to WRs at just a 41% clip - the third-lowest mark on the week. His aDOT rank was 5.0 - 4th lowest among 32 QBs in Week 1.

Considering how wild Josh Allen was on Monday Night Football, I'd bet he dials it back and looks more to his underneath options between the TEs and RBs because that is what the Raiders defense will most likely give him.

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals – Spread Line: CIN -3.0

Week 2 is overreaction season. I am not overreacting to the Bengals' abysmal defeat versus the Browns. As I noted in last week's primer, the Browns have been Joe Burrow's Achilles heel -sorry Aaron Rodgers. But that is not the case with the Ravens, whom Burrow has OWNED through his time as the Bengals QB1. Last two seasons, Burrow is 4-1 versus the Ravens with the team averaging 36 points in victories. The only loss was a two-point defeat at Baltimore last season.

Considering the Ravens' offense also looked pretty out of sync versus the Houston Texans, I am taking the Bengals to show up in a major bounce-back effort. Joe Burrow is 13-4 against the spread following a loss. Joey Covers.

Baltimore is dealing with a ton of injuries to key players such as Mark Andrews, Marlon Humphrey, Tyler Linderbaum, Ronnie Stanley and Marcus Williams. Secondary is suspect.

And the Bengals’ defense also wasn't as horrible as the Week 1 box score suggests. Sure, they couldn't stop Nick Chubb - nobody can - but No. 2 Browns RB Jerome Ford was inefficient with his carries. Second-worst rushing EPA. Given the downgrade going from JK Dobbins to other Ravens RBs, there could be some struggle to run the football. The Bengals should be able to harass Lamar Jackson especially if Stanley is not at 100%. When Stanley missed part of their Week 5 matchup last season, Jackson was pressured on 43% of his dropbacks. Averaged 5.4 yards per attempt and was held under 180 total passing yards. I like the under on Jackson's passing yards prop in Week 2. He's gone under this number in 10 of his last 13 games played.

As for overs, you NEED to buy the dip on Tee Higgins. 60.5 receiving yards. He can easily surpass this after he saw 8 targets and over 150 air yards in Week 1. The Ravens allowed Nico Collins and Robert Woods for a combined 137 receiving yards when they faced the Texans.

Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions – Spread Line: DET -4.5

The look-ahead lines for this matchup had this matchup pegged as a field goal game, but Seattle's big home loss versus a no-named Rams unit has bettors backing off Geno Smith and company. But should they? Again, Seattle's BIG loss to the Rams might have been overblown. The net success rate for LA was average versus the Seahawks. And it's not like the Rams are getting credit for their big win over Seattle as they are massive home underdogs (+8.5) versus the 49ers. Completely writing off the Rams without Cooper Kupp was a big oversight on my part last week. When we saw last season, a Baker Mayfield-led Rams team forced an OT contest with Seattle in Week 18.

Regardless, the market is stating its claim that it's already off the Seahawks bandwagon.

But what really happened to Seattle versus the Rams? Because they were up 13-7 at halftime. Well, they lost both starting offensive tackles, between Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas. So, after they scored on their first three drives, they missed a FG and it was all downhill from there. Four straight punts. 2 for 9 on third downs. 180 yards of offense to the Rams’ 426. The Rams DOMINATED the time of possession. Nearly doubled 40 vs. 20 mins. Game over.

It's looking unlikely that either tackle is ready for Week 2, as the Seahawks brought in two more tackles from their practice squad: Jason Peters and Greg Eiland. Abe Lucas will not play after being placed on IR. Obviously, that is problematic for the offense, but they may be able to game plan around the tackle issues with a full week to prepare without them, as opposed to in-game where it's tougher to adjust on the fly. Also needs to be noted that the Lions don't possess an elite pass-rush unit. So, the OT problems may be slightly overblown in the line.

Especially considering Seattle entered the year as PFF's 30th-ranked OL. The rookie tackles were not as good during the second half of the 2022 season. And that lead to Seattle underperforming versus expectations. From Week 12 onward Seattle went 1-7 versus the spread. Including their home loss last week, that jumps to 1-8 versus Sincethe spread (4-5 toward the under).

All things considered, I don't think we are in a spot to confidently back Seattle against a Lions team coming off extra rest and playing at home. Again, the Lions were the league's top offense at home (33.1). Detroit is also 18-7 (72%) vs. the spread in games with 54 points or fewer scored since current offensive coordinator Ben Johnson took on a larger role in calling the Detroit offense.

And Seattle's defense is still horrible with a severe lack of pass rush. Only Denver posted a lower pressure rate in Week 1. When Jared Goff plays at home and has time in the pocket, he delivers. Back Detroit in this matchup and be confident they put up points at home. Seattle's offense should do enough to keep things competitive, but I think their OL issues will show up in the second half like they did in Week 1.

As for props, I have two that I like. Over for tight end Sam Laporta on his receiving yards and over on Kenneth Walker's receiving yards. LaPorta went over his projected total in his rookie debut, and there's nothing about his usage that suggests he won't continue hitting this number. He commanded five targets for 5 catches and 39 yards. He finished third in the team in route participation (72%). This number in a vacuum is excellent for a tight and is even better considering, the Lions offense is mostly depleted of talent outside of Amon-Ra St. Brown. We got Tyler Higbee over last week when he took on Seattle -3-49 – so let's just keep targeting tight ends versus Seattle's defense.

As for Walker, he's coming off a game where he ran a route on more than 50% of the dropbacks and drew 4 targets. He was targeted on 25% of his routes but failed to turn any into worthwhile gains. But note, he would have easily hit the OVER last week has he not been screwed by a 6-yard loss on his first reception. After that, Walker caught 3 balls for 9 yards at the start of the second quarter. Given the injuries on the OL, I think the quick game may be more apparent in Seattle's approach leading for Walker to see continued work in the passing game. He also possesses an explosive skill set, so it just takes one for him to go over 8.5 receiving yards. Both Jerick McKinnon and Isiah Pacheco surpassed 10 receiving yards vs. the Lions in Week 1.

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans – Spread Line: HOU -1

Love the over in this game as I did when the Colts played the Jaguars in Week 1. The Colts’ offense is going to be fun this season, given the pace of play they are running under new head coach Shane Steichen. Per the FantasyPros Week 2 Primer, Indy was fifth in neutral pace and 11th in neutral passing rate in Week 1. Anthony Richardson was another rushing TD away from 28 total points for the Colts in the home opener. The rookie passed for 228 yards and added another 40 yards on the ground. I don't expect his numbers to dip anytime soon given how bad the Colts defensive secondary is. Keep in mind, Richardson threw for 100 yards in the first half alone, none of which were targets to No. 1 WR Michael Pittman Jr.

And did I mention they have no confidence in their running backs? Starter Deon Jackson was horrible in Week 1. Evan Hull was just placed on IR. They are praying Zack Moss returns from a broken arm. All signs point to more overall touches for Richardson...through the air and the ground.

As for the Houston Texans, they ranked third in neutral pace and seventh in neutral passing rate in C.J. Stroud's first start. And I was very impressed watching the Ohio State quarterback move given the horrible situation he was placed in behind a patchwork offensive line. Looked more mobile than he ever was at Ohio State. 4 scrambles for 20 yards. Big things are coming for Stroud. 242 passing yards was a top-5 mark in Week 1. If he can create more off-script plays, he can shred the Colts’ secondary for massive gains. I anticipate he will have more time to throw after the Colts’ defense generated a bottom-six pressure rate in Week 1 versus a banged-up Jaguars offensive line. The Colts' main strength is their run defense, not their pass rush or coverage abilities.

From a side perspective, I view this game as a pick 'em so I'll just take the Texans at plus money to win in Stroud's first game at home. Houston's defense is far superior to the Colts’ defense which had no answers for the Jaguars offense in Week 1. Meanwhile, DeMeco Ryan's unit gave Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens a fit for all four quarters.

As for props, it's all over-correlated on the QBs. C.J. Stroud over 185.5 passing yards is by far my favorite. Way too low. Projections have him pegged at 215 yards. The Colts allowed 237 passing yards in Week 1 to the Jaguars. Stroud also looked more mobile than he ever was at Ohio State. 4 scrambles for 20 yards in Week 1. Easy over play here with him likely forced to scramble behind his subpar offensive line. The Texans gave up 38 yards on the ground to Lamar Jackson in Week 1.

Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars – Spread Line: JAC +3.5

We've seen these two teams face off against each other twice last season, with the Chiefs coming away victorious at home by 10 and 7 points. Totals of 47 and 44. Games were totaled at 51 and 52.5. Now on the road, the sportsbooks have made the line even tighter between two of the top teams in the AFC to 3.5 points. Travis Kelce's status is still TBD, but the Chiefs got back defensive lineman, Chris Jones, to plug the interior. His return will be impactful as the Jaguars could be without star offensive guard, Brandon Scherff after he got hurt in Week 1. And the extra time off coming off a loss works in favor of the Chiefs. As should the return of All-Pro tight end, Travis Kelce.

I don't envision a scenario where the Jaguars are able to hold the Chiefs offense down, given they were one more Anthony Richardson scramble away from allowing 28 points to a rookie QB in his first start. The Chiefs offense ranked first in points per game on the road last season (33.3). I think the Chiefs easily get to 28 total points. The question is...will that be enough to cover the 3.5-point spread versus an improved Jaguars passing game with the addition of Calvin Ridley? Especially given that the Jaguars also can run the football behind the explosive Travis Etienne. Jacksonville showed they are more than happy to run the football when the matchups call for it, indicated by the 11th-highest neutral rushing rate. Now that was in Week 1 versus a rookie QB, where you can be more conservative. Doubt we see them rev up the rushing with Patrick Mahomes moving the ball up and down the field at ease.

Don't like betting against Andy Reid with extra time to prepare for the Jaguars. However, I am not overly convinced that the Chiefs’ defense will contain Trevor Lawrence with how deep his receiving corps is. But the fact that they were horrible on third downs 3-12 (25%) against a downright atrocious Colts defense has him bolstering my Chiefs pick. KC held the Lions to a 33% third-down conversion rate in Week 1.

I don't usually do exact game predictions, but this one smells like a 28-24 Chiefs road win. Like the over even with "unders" all the rage.

Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Spread Line: TB -2.5

Although Chicago lost handily in Week 1, the game was closer in the first half before a few big plays and a pick-six buried the Chicago Bears in the second half. As did Green Bay going a perfect 3-for-3 in the red zone. The Bears had more yards in the 1st half down 10-6. I think there might be some value in backing Chicago at +3.0 underdogs after they initially opened as 1.5-point favorites playing at Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay had everything work their way to beat the Vikings in Week 1. Their defense allowed 369 total yards and 5.9 yards per play (tied for second highest in Week 2). They recovered two lost fumbles and one interception that killed scoring opportunities for Minnesota. The Vikings turned the ball over twice inside Buccaneers' territory. And Tampa Bay got lucky with a few big plays versus a blitz-heavy defense. And they still only averaged 5.1 yards per pass attempt. Overall, they netted the third-worst yards per play (3.6) in Week 1. The Bears are not a blitz-heavy defense.

The Buccaneers are simply getting too much credit for their victory over the Vikings. Give me the Bears in a field goal game. Don't even hate the ML bet (+122 FanDuel Sportsbook). Anytime you get plus odds versus Baker Mayfield, you take it.

On the Bears offense as a whole, they were relying way too heavily on just RB targets and rushes by Justin Fields. Still, the Bears QB attempted 37 passes and completed 24 passes for 216 passing yards. 37 attempts was more than any game he had ALL last season.

The fact that the passing volume -accompanied by a bad defense – will lead to much better days for Chicago’s No. 1 WR, D.J. Moore. Pound the over 3.5 receptions at plus-money odds.

The Buccaneers allowed 242 receiving yards to WRs in Week 1. Buccaneers are a heavy blitzing team; more scrambles are coming for Justin Fields. And big plays in the passing game when Tampa Bay sells out on a full-out blitz.

 Los Angeles Chargers at Tennessee Titans – Spread Line: TEN 2.5

Ryan Tannehill was 8-5 toward the under as the team's starter dating back to last season. Just twice the total went over 48 points. I was firmly on the under last week for the Titans-Saints matchup and it came through with flying colors.

Tannehill was a disaster with three picks, 3 sacks and a grand total of 198 passing yards - behind an overmatched OL versus a mid-Saints defense line. He held the ball too long - 3.09 average time per throw - and that kept the Titans’ offense from moving. They were shut out in the red zone and went 2-12 on third downs. (16.7%). Horrible.

I think we see the Titans get back to the basics with the Derrick Henry run game script in Week 2, versus a Chargers run defense that has traditionally struggled versus the run since Branon Stanley took over as the head coach. Many will point to the high passing yards that the Chargers gave up in Week 1 against the high-flying Miami Dolphins offense, but Miami and Tennessee couldn't be more different offenses. Tannehill doesn't get the ball out nearly as quickly as Tua Tagovailoa, and hardly has the same receiving speed weapons at his disposal. Tannehill totaled 62 air yards versus the Saints. The Chargers defense faced 306 air yards versus Miami.

Still, even with Tannehill at quarterback, I hardly feel comfortable back in Staley's Chargers flying West to East for a 1 PM ET kickoff. Like last week, Mike Vrabel has the big coaching advantage. But last year in this matchup - played in LA where there really are no home-field advantages - the Chargers were victorious 17-14. Herbert threw for 313 yards but tossed zero TDs and was intercepted twice.

However, my biggest conviction still lies with the Bolts QB in this matchup versus a patchwork Titans' secondary that Derek Carr threw for 305 passing yards and 9.2 yards per attempt against in Week 1. But New Orleans stalled in the red zone, limiting their points to 17. LA's red-zone offense is better than the Saints, scoring TDs on four of their 5 red-zone possessions in Week 1 versus Miami.

With Austin Ekeler banged up and the Titans the quintessential "run-funnel defense" my bet is on Justin Hebert to get the Chargers a road win. With the line moved to -2.5 at some books, I think they can pull out the field goal victory on the back of their franchise quarterback in a very favorable matchup. Again, this team scored 34 points last week (4th-most) but just happened to give up 36 versus a high-powered unit. Had they just won the shootout (as they should have) the line wouldn't be nearly this close. Grounding penalty, J.C. Jackson's dumb pass interference penalty killed the Chargers.

LA averaged nearly 25 points per game last season on the road versus 21.8 at home. But because I don't think the offense necessarily needs to be pushed by the Titans’ "let's run this through the mud" philosophy, I lean toward the total under. The only way I see it gets over is if Derrick Henry rips off a bunch of huge runs to finish out the game in the second half.

But because the Chargers are undoubtedly the most painful team to bet on, I'll likely be getting the majority of exposure to his matchup through the props market.

I like the overs on both of the Chargers' WRs. Keenan Allen has gone over 67.5 yards (including last week) in seven of his last ten games. Mike Williams has gone over 58.5 receiving yards in his last four games where he has been healthy. Both guys hit the "over" in their matchup versus the Titans last year, when Austin Ekeler caught just two passes.

Both WRs should gobble up targets if Austin Ekeler is limited or not playing in this matchup.

New York Giants at Arizona Cardinals – Spread Line: ARI +4.0

The Cardinals were viewed as 7-point underdogs versus a Sam Howell-led Commanders squad in Week 1. They covered because Howell had a fumble-six. That was the only TD they scored. They averaged 3.6 yards per play (4th-worst). They had nine penalties resulting in 122 yards for Washington. Three fumbles (2 lost). The Cardinals offense is HORRIBLE with Joshua Dobbs as their starting QB. So although I understand where the line is coming from (likely 7 points if the Giants were at home), New York is being too harshly penalized after a prime-time blowout loss to the Dallas Cowboys. Facing Big D's elite defense versus the Cardinals is a night-and-day difference. The line has moved since opening at +4 Cardinals to 5.5/6 (and now back down to +4) which I feel is great value. Back Big Blue and a bounce-back effort for Brian Daboll and company.

Last season aside from games versus Dallas (which seems to be the Giants' kryptonite) New York was a perfect 5-0 versus the spread following a loss, with an average margin of victory by over ten points.

Daniel Jones posted 27 rushing yards on the team's opening drive before things unraveled versus the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. He finished with 43 total rushing yards on 13 carries. Even after signing the big contract this offseason, Week 1 showed that the offense is not going away from using Jones' legs as a lethal weapon. He is often making the decision, considering his 7 scrambles tied Justin Fields for the most among QBs in Week 1. His 35.5 rushing yards line is fair, but the projections have him legged at 42 yards for Week 2. I like the over. In two games versus the Jonathan Gannon defense on the Eagles, Jones averaged 28 rushing yards the last two seasons.

The other prop I love is for tight end Darren Waller. Waller only played slightly over half the snaps on Sunday but was heavily targeted. (5 targets, 17% target share, 22% target rate per route run). He ended with 3 catches for 36 yards. But he was far and beyond Jones’ favorite target. And the way that the Commanders offense attacked the Cardinals last week, bodes well for Waller to continue to see heavy targets. Arizona faced a 34.5% target share to TEs, the second-highest rate in Week 1. Commanders TEs Logan Thomas and Cole Turner combined for 5 catches for 60 yards on 10 targets.

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams – Spread Line: LAR +7

The Rams shocked the world in a big road win versus the Seattle Seahawks in Week 1. But had the Seahawks not suffered a mirid of tackle injuries, they may not have won so connivingly. After all, their next success rate was just slightly above average in the win. And Matthew Stafford converted third downs at crazy rate (65%). Bills were No. 1 in that category last season at 50%. The Rams converted 11 3rd downs, five of which were 3rd and over 5 yards.

Meanwhile, the 49ers showed they are a true contender, after curb-stomping the Steelers in their first road win of the season. And it was a dominating performance, however, you shape the numbers. Therefore, I am backing the 49ers on the road even as touchdown favorites. They played a Matthew Stafford-led Rams team with Cooper Kupp twice last season, and the Kyle Shanahan team won handsomely. 24-9 and 31-14. The year prior - versus the future Super Bowl-winning Rams - SF went 2-1 against Sean McVay's team, going a perfect 3-0 ATS averaging a touchdown margin of victory. This 2023 Rams team is nothing like that Super Bowl squad. Lock in the 49ers.

And load up on player props, because there are a lot of great ones in this contest.

Cam Akers under 8.5 receiving yards is a gimme. He ran 2 routes last week in a game where the Rams ran 78 plays. Kyren Williams is the preferred receiving back in the Rams' offense, not Akers.

Deebo Samuel has surpassed 70 receiving yards in four straight games versus the LA Rams. In Week 1, Deebo finished with 5 catches for 55 yards on 7 targets. Although Brandon Aiyuk stole the show, Samuel still had a solid game. 25% target share. 32% air yards share. 97% route participation. He ran the most routes. I think Samuel is a savvy buy-low with all the shine on Aiyuk.

New York Jets at Dallas Cowboys – Spread Line: DAL -9.5

As a starter last season, Zach Wilson was not good. But the Jets still found ways to win games by playing elite defense and running the football. Wilson posted a 5-4 record straight up and only lost one game by more than one score (8 points). Again, nobody expects Dallas to win and for the Jets to completely roll over. But they showed grit Monday night that they can win by playing elite defense with a top-tier ground game. I think they roll that momentum into Week 2 and cover the massive 9.5-point spread. And given the two elite defenses, I'd lean toward the under-even at 38.5 points.

As for props...duck your head for the unders. Garrett Wilson has averaged 52 receiving yards in nine games started by Zach Wilson (including Monday night). But the average is inflated by two big games versus last year's Patriots and Bills (both home matchups). 77% hit rate toward the under, combined with Dallas D? No thanks. Take the under.

Washington Commanders at Denver Broncos – Spread Line: DEN -3.5

This game is gross. Two offenses coming off rather uninspiring performances versus inferior opponents that they should have taken advantage of. But I'll give more credit to the Commanders in this capacity because they would have covered the seven points had it not been for a fumble-six. And outside that they dominated the game. Washington's defense didn't allow any room for the Cardinals to move the ball, and I'd expect Denver's offense to struggle as well after their poor showing versus a very underwhelming Raiders defense at home in Week 1. Their offense is totally anemic with RB and TE dump-offs as the forefront approach with Russell Wilson under center. Wilson averaged 5.2 yards per attempt in Week 1. 38% target share to RBs. Not conducive to scoring points. This team NEEDs Jerry Jeudy to save the offense coming off a hamstring injury.

And no team shut down the run more than Washington in Week 1, as their fiery defensive front generated the most expected points versus the run.

This game screams like a dull struggle fest, where I don't want to back either side. Bet the props (mostly unders). But if I must pick a side, I'll take the Commanders +3.5. I'll continue to bet against Russell Wilson, who is a combined 10-20 in his last 30 games. Until I see Sean Payton work his magic on Wilson, I'll continue to fade the overvalued Broncos.

Take the under on Terry McLaurin. Two words. Patrick Suratin. Brutal matchup. Also, McLaurin posted just a 14% target share in Sam Howell's second start. 4th in targets in Week 1. Just four targets overall. Woof. Conversely, bet the over on Jahan Dotson. Dotson (7 targets) went 5 for 40 receiving yards in Week 1. He led the team in routes run (95% route participation) and air yards share (30%). Sell McLaurin and buy Dotson after a quiet Week 1. WR1 Alpha usage. Denver couldn’t cover Jakobi Meyers with No. 2 cornerback, Damarri Mathis, who Dotson will get plenty of in Week 2.

Brian Robinson just barely got over his rushing yards prop last week versus the Arizona Cardinals. I doubt he will find success this we though, as we pound the under on his rushing line set at 55.5 rushing yards. Denver stifled the Raiders ground game in Week 1, holding 2022's leading rusher, Josh Jacobs, to just 48 yards on 19 carries (2.5 yards per carry). Robinson isn't 50% of a runner Jacobs is. The under is the play.

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots – Spread Line: NE +3

The Patriots’ defense made the reigning NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles look mortal in their home opener, and they got robbed on the +4.5 cover after spotting their opponent's 16 points from the jump. The Patriots defense generated pressure at a top-5 rate versus Jalen Hurts in Week 1. And they allowed just 5.2 yards per attempt with zero explosive plays. That was the exact opposite of how the Miami Dolphins boat-raced the L.A. Chargers, with explosive plays galore. Miami averaged 10.4 yards per attempt. Twice as much as the Patriots defense allowed on Sunday. The Dolphins offense versus the Patriots defense is the matchup many are looking at with Tua Tagovailoa boasting a perfect record versus Bill Belichick. However, the New England defense is beyond what the Chargers were trotting out, so I like New England's defense to limit Miami more than the Bolts were able to do, even if they do not completely shut it down.

But I think what the Patriots offense showed in Week 1 is flying under the radar versus a Dolphins defense that was absolutely gashed by LA.

The Dolphins allowed a 60% conversion rate on third downs. LA scored on 80% of its red zone drives. New Patriots offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien dialed up the pace for the offense putting them second in neutral pace and sixth in neutral passing rate. I think both through the air and the ground attack - Dolphins allowed 233 rushing yards in Week 1 - will put the Patriots in a position to move the ball effectively.

Mac Jones showed out for 300-plus yards and 3 TDs versus a much better Eagles defense in Week 1, and I don't see why he can find more success in a much softer matchup in Week 2. He plays so much better when the team plays WR Kendrick Bourne at full capacity.  New England's implied team total is 22 points which is higher than the Vikings offense this week.

Maybe it's a Homer pick. But Sunday night, I am going with the Patriots to win outright.

And I bet a lot of that stems from Rhamondre Stevenson having a productive game on the ground. He predictably struggled in Week 1 versus a stout Eagles defense. It's the no-run zone versus Philly's fierce line as shown by Alexander Mattison's most recent struggles on Thursday night. Expect a major bounce-back effort for Mondre against a defense that allowed 5.8 yards per carry in Week 1. Projections have him pegged for 53.4 total yards on the ground.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers – Spread Line: CAR +3

The Saints were unable to cover the 3.5-point last week, despite a total implosion by Ryan Tannehill. I was suspect of how "good" they would be under Derek Carr and my fears were realized as they struggled in the red zone, converting on just one of their four red zone drives. They were unable to fully take advantage of how badly the Titans played, which makes me concerned about backing them as three-point road favorites.

However, the head coaching advantage is not as stark as it was last week. Especially considering Frank Reich's track record of slow starts.

And the Panthers offense just looked downright dreadful versus the Falcons. 3.9 yards per play. 48.8 passer rating. 33% pressure rate versus a Falcons defense that has traditionally struggled to rush the passer.

New Orleans’ defense is far from elite - only a 20% pressure rate last week versus a bad Titans OL - but I can't bet on this Panthers offense until I see dramatic improvement from blocking upfront. It's by no coincidence that the Panthers have the fourth-lowest implied team total on the slate. I am not sure how the Panthers actually plan on moving the ball and sustaining drives, with not much changed in their outlook from last week aside from the fact they are at home and will likely be getting WR D.J. Chark back.

And although I am not high on Derek Carr, I feel better about backing him with the weapons he has at his disposal versus a secondary that will be without star cornerback, Jaycee Horn. Their secondary got destroyed when he missed time last season. And New Orleans' play calling was encouraging. The Saints were sixth in neutral pace and 14th in neutral passing rate in Week 1. Carr threw for over 305 yards.

Still, a potential lack of overall offensive fireworks - both teams hit the under in Week 1 – has me sniffing around for player prop unders. However, there are not a ton of passing/receiving lines currently up, so I'll opt for backing the running game versus the Panthers.

Jamaal Williams had a volume-based RB1 role in Week 1. 18 carries and 2 catches for 53 yards. Just 45 rushing yards. But the volume was there for him to hit this number, especially with a 75% snap share.

The Titans' run defense was an elite run-stuffing unit to avoid all last season, and they looked the part in Week 1. For Williams, he should benefit from an easy matchup in Week 2 versus the Panthers. Their defense allowed 5 yards per carry to the Falcons in Week 1.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers – Spread Line: PIT +2.5

This just smells like a massive underdog bounce-back spot for the Pittsburgh Steelers after their home shellacking versus the San Francisco 49ers.

Because even as badly as the 49ers completely curb-stopped the Steel Curtain, the pass rush led by T.J. Watt did not give up. No team generated a higher pressure rate (56%) than the Steelers did in Week 1. And there was never a time where Pittsburgh was facing obvious passing scripts down 20-0 in the first half. The Browns will be without their stud offensive tackle, Jack Conklin, after he got hurt on Sunday.

And the Steelers are 3-2-1 as home underdogs over the past three seasons. And when these two teams matched up last season, both home teams emerged victorious by double-digits.

Even though the narrative on the Steelers offense isn't great given the injury to Diontae Johnson and how the Browns clamped down the Bengals offense in Week 1, I don't think the Cleveland offense excelled particularly in the passing game. Think the Steelers’ defense can create enough havoc to keep this game close and potentially win ugly in a classic AFC North dogfight.

If it ain't broke don't fix it. The rushing line props moved one yard for Deshaun Watson from last week. It's listed at 24.5. Not high enough. So again, we are smashing the over. Watson rushed for 45 yards in a non-competitive game in Week 1. He's averaged 30 rushing yards since becoming the Browns starter last season. And with the Steelers boasting an elite pass rush, I expect Watson to scramble more than ever to pick up yardage with his legs. The stone-cold lock of the week is BACK.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:


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