Navigate

NFL Betting Primer: Top Picks & Player Prop Bets for Every Game (Week 3)

by |

Introducing the Week 3 edition of the NFL Betting primer, proudly brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m thrilled to be your guide as we delve into each game on the NFL slate. Here, you’ll find expert insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and enticing player props that could pave the way for impressive single-game parlays. Note that early in the week the props are mainly limited to just Underdog and Prizepicks, until normal sportsbooks release their player props closer to Sunday.

Before we dive into Week 3, let’s take a moment to reflect on the performance in Week 2 and overall.

Below is the official record on the recommended picks from Week 2 (not including Thursday night football where we went 4-0). Week 3 Thursday night football was also profitable, with us going 4-1 with the official picks. Feel good about player props, and see that I’ve been much better with betting totals then sides. Something to monitor.

Week 2:

  • Spread: 3-9-2
  • Totals: 5-8
  • Player Props: 15-12-1
  • ML: 0-1
  • Overall: 20-18

2023 season:

  • Spread: 8-16
  • Totals: 10-10
  • Player Props: 25-21
  • ML: 0-2
  • Overall: 43-47

Whether you’re a seasoned betting aficionado or just beginning your journey into the captivating world of NFL wagering – like myself, now that my state has embraced sports betting – this primer is your go-to source for valuable perspectives and well-informed picks for the upcoming NFL week.

Prepare to approach the NFL season with a sharp betting focus as we break down the Week 3 matchups and unveil our favorite bets and top picks. So, without further ado, here are my top selections for all remaining 15 Week 3 games. Get ready to elevate your NFL betting game!

NFL Betting Primer

Baltimore Ravens (BAL) vs. Indianapolis Colts (IND) – Spread: BAL -7.5

The Baltimore Ravens are just one of two teams that remain undefeated in the AFC, after two weeks of play. They’ve won both of their games rather handily, with the highest net success rate overall.

Their offense hit its stride after a bumpy Week 1, with Lamar Jackson getting back his No. 1 tight end, Mark Andrews. Back at home, they will take on a Colts team that is coming off their first win of the season versus the Houston Texans. However, rookie sensation, Anthony Richardson suffered a concussion and is questionable for Week 3. Gardner Minshew is a good enough veteran to steady the ship, but he’s hardly enough of a reason to back the Colts with a potential road upset. Their defense is atrocious, specifically in their secondary. Bottom-five in both passing yards and yards per attempt. The Colts are emerging as one of the league’s premier pass-funnel defenses with the team avoiding their strong defensive front. They have allowed just 2.6 yards per carry on the ground this season. Essentially a no-run zone aside from one big rush allowed to Travis Etienne Jr. back in Week 1. Therefore, I expect the offense to flow through Lamar Jackson and the passing game to get the Ravens the big home win and continue their flawless streak against the spread in 2023. The Ravens are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games.

Jackson’s completing nearly 75% of his passes through two games, getting the ball out faster than he has ever done in his NFL career. Bet the overs on his receivers. Zay Flowers’ receiving yards prop is set at 48.5 despite him going over that number in his first two NFL starts. Over his first two games, Flowers ranks 5th in the NFL with a 31% target share and 90% routes run rate.

For a bigger payout, look for his receptions prop over 4.5 at plus-money odds (+124 DK Sportsbook). The Colts have allowed the 4th-most receiving yards and receptions to WRs this season.

However, my favorite bet (assuming we get the green light from Richardson) is to bet the over in this game. The Colts have been an overmachine through two games, with Shane Steichen dialing up a fast-paced heavy-passing offensive game plan. Baltimore’s secondary has been shaky through two weeks and got diced up pretty well from Joe Burow in Week 2. These two teams are combined 3-1 toward the over.

But just keep tabs on the weather conditions. Rainy conditions and wind. If Richardson can’t go combined with bad weather, I am likely going to stay away from the over in this spot.

Lamar Jackson is also at plus-money odds to toss two-plus passing TDs. Both QBs the Colts have faced this season have thrown 2 passing TDs. Jackson has thrown at least 2 TDs in five of his last 8 games played with Rashod Bateman (basically just a healthy WR) in the starting lineup.

Given the weather as well, probably smart to be the over on Lamar Jackson’s 7.5 rushing attempts prop. Hit the over in 10 of his last 14 games. Averaged 9 rushes per game. 12 scrambles and 6 designed runs in total. Jackson had five designed runs last week after all the running back injuries. With Justice Hill also questionable to play, think Jackson continues to see plenty of usage as a rusher.

My Picks:

  • Ravens -7.5 (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • Over 44.5 (-110 BetMGM)

My Props:

Cleveland Browns (CLE) vs. Tennessee Titans (TEN) – Spread: CLE -3

I don’t think we need to overthink this one folks because this is the single worst matchup you could want from the Browns’ perspective. The Titans boast the league’s second-best run defense based on expected points and the Browns just lost their best running back on Monday night. Jerome Ford and newly signed Kareem Hunt are not going to be able to run on this front. That’s going to put Deshaun Watson in the driver’s seat to win the game with his arm. Bet the over on his passing attempts with QBs averaging considering QBs have averaged 39.2 pass attempts versus the Titans since the start of last season. Watson threw 40 times on Monday Night Football after Nick Chubb got injured.

If you’ve watched any of Watson this season, he has been miserable as a thrower. Per Fantasy Points, he ranks last in adjusted completion percentage and fourth worst in completion rate over expectation (-5.8%). And although the Tennessee Titans do not have a great secondary, their defensive line will be able to apply pressure on Watson, who ranks fourth in longest time to throw. He’s been sacked an average of four times through two games. The loss of tackle Jack Conklin cannot be understated. He’s going to be forced to take off and scramble.

The Titans have a knack for keeping games close and winning ugly, so I’m confidently backing them here with three points to work with on the road. I don’t think their offense will move the ball much either against the league’s No. 1 best run defense based on expected points, but Derrick Henry only needs to get loose once to shift the tides of a game. The Browns also currently rank second in expected points added in pass defense – allowing a league-low 47% completion rate – so I project tough sledding for Ryan Tannehill in the passing game. But at least Tannehill was able to bounce back in a big way in Week 2, finishing as PFF’s highest-graded QB.

And I always bring this up when it comes to the Titans, but having Mike Vrabel is an edge that might matter more than home-field advantage. All the games Tennessee has played in thus far have been decided by three points, with Tennessee covering in both games. Tannehill is 5-1-1 versus the 3-point spreads in his last 7 starts. The Titans have also played extremely well on the road. Last 10 road games, they are 5-5 straight up but have only lost two games by more than a 4-point margin.

Also wouldn’t shock me at all to see them win outright. Sprinkle in some money line action at +142 (FanDuel Sportsbook).

The under is my pick from a totals perspective because I am not hopeful either offense moves the ball with much ease. Tannehill is 8-6 toward the under as the team’s starter dating back to last season.

The props are more unders. DeAndre Hopkins needs volume to get to his yardage totals and that doesn’t work in his favor in a tough matchup. He’s averaging just 1.0 yards after the catch per reception this season. He’s still dealing with an ankle injury that has limited his practice repetitions. He only ran a route on 72% of dropbacks in Week 2 and was targeted once in the first half. Considering how much better Tannehill played when he wasn’t just jamming targets to Hopkins, the under of his yardage is the recommended play.

The weather also doesn’t look great in Cleveland for Sunday’s game. Rain and wind up to 14mph in the forecast.

My Picks:

  • Titans +3 (-105 DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • Under 39.5 (-108 DraftKings Sportsbook)

My Props:

Miami Dolphins (MIA) vs. Denver Broncos (DEN) – Spread: MIA -6.0

The Dolphins will win by AT LEAST seven points against the completely overrated Denver Broncos. Denver – now 0-2 versus the spread – has been a team profitable to bet against, and that doesn’t stop even as near touchdown home favorites. The Dolphins’ offense is firing on all cylinders and could not be stopped by the Patriots’ defense on Sunday night football. I’d hardly say that Denver’s defense allowing 26 points per game is going to be a formidable opponent. They have faced the Raiders and Commanders to open the year – and underwhelmed tremendously despite playing at home. Through two weeks, Denver is tied with the Broncos for the most penalties per game (9.5).

Meanwhile, Miami answered their main questions regarding their Week 1 poor defensive performance, by stepping up in the spotlight versus the Patriots offense.

And things are already spiraling with the Russell Wilson and Sean Payton relationship. We are just two weeks in. Things might get worse before they get better. I’ll continue to bet against Russell Wilson, who is a combined 10-21 in his last 31 games. Go Dolphins. Miami finished 6-2 at home last season (5-1 with Tua Tagovailoa) with an average margin of victory of 10.5 points.

As for props, here’s where we will get Denver into the action. I like the over on Javonte Williams at 50.5 rushing yards. This was the same number Rhamondre Stevenson had last week, and he got there despite the Patriots facing a major negative game script. Williams has averaged 12 carries for 48 rushing yards I in his first two games, but Miami’s poor run defense is the easiest matchup he has had seen. And although Samaje Perine continues to see snaps, Williams owns the bulk of the rushing share. Miami’s defense ranks fourth in rushing yards allowed to RBs this season.

I also like the over on Williams’s 2.5 receptions prop. Listed as plus money when he has averaged 3 catches per game this season. He ranks second behind only Jahmyr Gibbs in target rate per route run among RBs this season.

Courtland Sutton saw his first target in Week 2 in the third quarter. Sutton’s numbers have traditionally tanked when Jerry Jeudy has been healthy, so I wouldn’t be overly rosy about his 5 catches for 66 yards on a team-high seven targets versus Washington. I expect Jeudy to be more involved another week back from his injury. The projections agree, with Sutton forecasted for 44.4 yards in Week 3. Conversely, I like the over on Jeudy. Last season, Jeudy went over this number in 10 of 12 games when he played at least a 60% snap share.

My Picks:

  • Dolphins -6 (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

My Props:

New York Jets (NYJ) vs. New England Patriots (NE) – Spread: -2.5 NE

I was really excited about the Patriots’ matchup last Sunday. Despite my Patriots falling short of my money line bet, it was an entertaining game to watch, nevertheless. Cannot say I feel the same way about this week’s matchup between the Jets-Patriots. This game is just so gross. Two elite defenses versus two offenses that are mediocre at best. New England’s offense has been encouraging compared to last season, but the New York Jets defense presents a tough challenge for them to overcome. Meanwhile, Zach Wilson will make his fifth start versus the Patriots, going 0-4 in his four prior matchups. Last year alone, Wilson had one game with three interceptions and another with just 77 passing yards averaging 10 points per game. As tough of a matchup the Jets present Mac Jones and company, the Patriots’ offense is still at a significant advantage over Gang Green led by Wilson. Zach Wilso ‘s bad. Ranks dead last in passing EPA through two games.

The only way I can envision the Jets finding success on offense is if they really dig into the ground game with Breece Hall. The Patriots could not stop Raheem Mostert on Sunday night football. Overall, they rank 10th in most rushing yards allowed. Still, I don’t think an efficient rushing attack will be enough to save the Jets even at home.

The Patriots come away with their first win of 2023 by 3-plus points in Week 3, after two tough one-possession losses at home. Note that this figures to be the first game the Patriots are forced to go super pass-heavy after falling behind by 14-plus points in both of their previous games against two of the NFL’s best teams. The Jets have averaged 6.5 points in the first half (28th) in 2023. They ranked 31st in that metric last season.

For props, my favorites are for the RBs. Starting with Patriots No. 2 RB, Ezekiel Elliott. After being super involved in the passing game in Week 1, Zeke ran a route on just 19% of dropbacks in Week 2 with zero targets. Wouldn’t surprise me at all if he catches zero passes for the second straight game. Regardless we are slamming the under on his receiving yards prop set at 7.5 yards. Elliot is averaging fewer than 3 yards per reception this season. So even if he does catch a couple of passes, chances are he won’t actually pick up the yardage to get over the receiving line.

Buy the dip on Breece Hall. If the Jets have any hope of winning this game, it will be because they establish the run. The Pats have allowed at least 54 rushing yards to opposing RB1s in back-to-back weeks, and Hall possesses the explosiveness to hit this number on one rushing attempt.

The projected rainy and windy conditions in the forecast further bake in the under as the play.

My Picks:

  • Patriots -2.5 (-115 FanDuel Sportsbook)
  • Under 37.5 (-115 BetMGM)

My Props:

Jacksonville Jaguars (JAC) vs. Houston Texans (HOU) – Spread: JAX -8.5

Until the Houston Texans’ offensive line gets healthy, it’s going to be impossible to back them in most situations. The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been slightly overshadowed by not many household names, but they are generating a whole lot of pass rush. They rank third in total pressures and 6th in pressure rate. Ergo, C.J. Stroud will continue to have to make plays happen as the seventh-most pressured QB in the NFL.

As for the offense, they had one of the worst run-outs versus the Chiefs. Dropped passes and some near misses in the end zone along with some key questionable play calling ended their chances of beating the reigning Super Bowl champions. But after re-watching that game, I really think they were far from overmatched.

Luckily this Jaguars squad has shown the ability to rebound after underwhelming offensive performances. When held to 20 or fewer points in 2022, the Jags averaged 28 points per the game following week going 5-2 straight up wins versus losses.

And the biggest issue with this team is the lack of sustained drives. They rank dead last in the third-down conversion rate. The easiest way to fix this? Pick up some yardage with the run game to make third downs more manageable. I think that going back to Travis Etienne Jr. versus a suspect Texans run defense will get the Jaguars offense back on track. Zack Moss averaged nearly 5.0 yards per carry against them in Week 2. They are tied for the third-most missed tackles on defense.

Houston also ranks 29th in third-down conversion rate and 29th in red zone conversion rate allowed this season.

Feels weird backing a Jaguars team with an 8.5-point spread, but the Texans were completely overmatched versus the Colts, who Jacksonville had a lot of success against back in Week 1. Eventually, we will get to see what this Texans team can really do later down the road, once they get healthy. But until then expect more of the same from the team that is minus 27 in point differential with back-to-back 10-point losses.

My one concern would be the backdoor cover –Stroud is going to make some plays in this game despite his horrible surroundings – indicated by the Texans’ 10 4th-quarter points in Week 2.

I don’t hate the Jaguars’ -5.5 first-half spread an alternative approach to this game. At home after a big loss to the Chiefs, have to imagine the Jaguars want to get started fast. The Jaguars’ team total at 26.5 is also in play (13.5 first-half team total). Houston ranks 31st in first-half points allowed (17.5)

Also, firmly on the over in this game with Stroud bringing enough to the table to keep points on the board. Houston ranks third in passing attempts per game, and with no run game to speak of…I don’t see that changing anytime soon. Bet the over on Stroud’s 222.5 passing yards and parlay it with the over on WR Nico Collins. He went 7 for 146 and 1 with nine targets in Week 2. 25% target rate per route this season. 5th in receiving yards (226). 5th in total air yards. A monster after the catch looking to dish out punishment. Looks like he is on the cusp of a true breakout. OVER. The Jaguars are allowing the second-most yards after the catch this season.

My Picks:

  • Jaguars 1st half -5.5 (-110 FanDuel Sportsbook)
  • Over 43.5 (-110 BetMGM)

My Props:

Detroit Lions (DET) vs. Atlanta Falcons (ATL) – Spread: DET -3

Ford Field is the Coors Field of the NFL. We just saw a game shootout between the Lions-Seahawks that amassed over 60 points in Week 2. The Lions were the league’s top offense at home (33.1) last year and that trend continued in Week 2 of this season. In their last 10 home games, the average total has been 59 points. 90% of the games have scored at least 51 points.

When Jared Goff plays at home and has time in the pocket, he delivers. Be confident they put up points at home against the Falcons. Because I’m not overly convinced that the Falcons will put insane pressure on Goff. Versus Jordan Love last week, they pressured him on just 22% of dropbacks. That ranked 6th-lowest in Week 2. And although the Falcons have not allowed many passing yards – third-fewest passing yards allowed per game – they have not faced super pass-heavy offenses between the Panthers and Packers. The Lions’ passing attack will be their biggest test yet, and it comes in their first road game of the season. Love has the highest passer rating from a clean pocket this season (122.2). Second? Jared Goff.

There are some injuries the Lions are dealing with that also should be monitored. Left tackle Taylor Decker and right guard Halapoulivaati Vaitai missed practice to start the week. WR Amon-Ra St. Brown is listed as day-to-day but has been practicing. I think these injuries are the reason we have not seen the total increase.

Because I’m confident the Falcons are going to put up points versus the Lions. Geno Smith led the Seahawks offense without its starting tackles to nearly 400 yards of offense against them in Week 2.

Starting safety, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson is out for the Lions. Detroit ranks 27th in red zone defense. Whether it be by the pass or run, look for Atlanta to expose a middling Lions defensive unit that won’t have the answers to stop a dynamic Falcons offense. Atlanta was pushed in Week 2 and scored 25 points with over 400 yards of offense versus a talented Packers defense.

As for the sides, I like backing the Falcons in a close projected game. As I noted last week, the Falcons lost 8 of their 10 games in one-possession games last year. We saw the regression kick in Week 2 when they beat the Packers in a close contest. Wouldn’t surprise me at all to see them pull off another tight win. But I’ll play it safe with the +3.5 to work within their first road game of the year.

Josh Reynolds was really productive again in Week 2 with two TD scores. For those holding out hope for Jameson Williams…Hard to see him supplanting Reynolds as WR2 after he has shined with his old QB. Last two weeks, Reynolds owns a 20% target share and a team-high 31% air yards share. With Amon-Ra St. Brown banged up, I expect Goff to lean on Reynolds in a projected shootout.

My Picks:

  • Falcons +3.5 (-110 BetMGM)
  • Falcons over 21.5 points (-108 BetMGM)
  • Over 46 (-110 BetMGM)

My Props:

Green Bay Packers (GB) vs. New Orleans Saints (NO) – Spread: GB -2

The Packers were unable to win back-to-back road games, falling to the Falcons in Week 2. But it was a game that they were certainly capable of winning if a few plays had gone in a different direction. Remember they were up 24-12 entering the fourth quarter, but just failed to put away the Dirty Birds.

But despite the loss, Jordan Love has played extremely well. His pass protection has been great and that has allowed him to execute the offense to a tee, despite the absences of Christian Watson and Aaron Jones.

And Love’s ability to thrive in a clean pocket gives the Packers’ offense the edge versus New Orleans. They have the league’s 5th-worst pressure rate – despite playing two games versus the Panthers and Titans.

As for New Orleans, they have gotten to a 2-0 start only because they have played Tennessee and Carolina. Their red-zone offense ranks 4th-worst in the NFL, which has netted them just 18 points per game with Derek Carr at quarterback. Carr has thrown just 1 TD in two starts, versus two interceptions. He has the fifth-worst passer rating from a clean pocket. Love has a perfect 6-0 TD-INT ratio while boasting the league’s highest passer rating from a clean pocket (122.2).

I think the Packers have the major edge on both sides of the ball, and they get to play at home. They should be favored by more with their major weakness versus the run (3rd-worst in expected points added by run defense). Although I love Kendre Miller, I am not sure a rookie RB making his first start – Alvin Kamara is still suspended, and Jamaal Williams is hurt – will vault the Saints to a road win.

For props, I am eyeing WRs unders for the Saints. GB has not allowed a WR to surpass 67 receiving yards this season, so I am taking the under on Michael Thomas’ line at 55.5 receiving yards. MT plays the fewest percentage of his snaps from the slot, meaning he will align more with Packers stud CB, Jaire Alexander. The prop bet cheat sheet agrees, projecting Thomas for just 50.2 receiving yards in Week 3.

My Picks:

  • Packers – 2 (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • Under 42.5 (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)

My Props:

Washington Commanders (WAS) vs. Buffalo Bills (BUF) – Spread: BUF -6.5

The Bills head on the road after a big home demolition of the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 2. The line has moved heavily in Buffalo’s favor since the Bills opened as 4.5-point favorites. Now a near TD favorite on the road, Buffalo will take on an undefeated Washington team, that is 3-0 under Sam Howell. But these wins are not against the most legitimate competition aside from the win versus Dallas last year. Arizona and Denver are easily two of the league’s bottom-dwelling teams, so Buffalo will be a true test for the nation’s capital. Especially considering Howell as led two 4th quarter comebacks, something that he won’t be able to achieve every single week.

Both defenses rank inside the top 8 in pressure rate this season, while both QBs have faced average pressure from the pocket in their first two matchups. Even so, Howell has taken the second-most sacks in the league (10), with the highest percentage of pressures that turn into sacks. Sacks are drive-killers, and I am concerned that with a total lack of sheer plays, Washington’s offense might be overmatched in this spot. Again, their average yards per play this season ranks 23rd (4.9). The Bills’ opponents have generated the fewest plays per game.

Washington’s offense has benefitted from generating a lot of raw big plays – 10th in yards per completion – as they have not been great at sustaining drives. 28th in third-down conversions. That was problematic for the Raiders last week, as the Bills just dominated the time of possession to overwhelm their opponent. Buffalo ranks 6th in the third-down conversion rate. Washington has been able to “bully” two inferior opponents, but still needs 4th quarter comebacks to come away with victories.

Even if they find success running the football with Brian Robinson against Buffalo – which remains to be seen after they allowed just -2 yards on the ground to Josh Jacobs a week ago – I think Washington is too overmatched.

Don’t think we ever see Washington get in any type of rhythm, while Buffalo continues its strong play from last week.

The Bills are 7-6 toward the over in their last 13 games, but three of the unders have been versus the Jets (including this year’s MNF). The Howell-led Commanders have scored at least 20 points in all their games averaging 27 points per game. The Bills narrowly got to the over last week with no help from the Raiders, but I am less confident about the 43.5 total with Washington’s offense a concern for me this week. The Commanders’ defense also plays better at home. Arizona’s offense didn’t score a TD against them in Week 1. And they allowed fewer than 20 points per game at home last season. No offense exceeded 24 points versus Washington at home, with 7/9 teams all scoring between 20-24 points.

Also per the FantasyPros Primer…the playcalling suggests a slower-paced game. As does the weather in the forecast calling for windy and rainy conditions.

“The Bills have taken the slow-and-throw approach. They have the ninth-slowest neutral pace while also rocking the third-highest neutral passing rate. The Commanders are running at the seventh-slowest pace while utilizing a run-balanced offense (15th in neutral passing rate).”

Originally, I liked the spot where I’ll just back Buffalo’s offense over 24.5 points, but the Commanders’ strong home splits have me backing off. Instead, I’ll opt for the points band for Buffalo between 21-30 points. They averaged 26 points per game on the road last season. Likely they score 20-plus but potentially be held under 30 points.

As for props, I leaning toward the under on Sam Howell’s passing yards. He has only gone over this number in one of his two NFL starts (last week) and that came on the back of three passing plays of 30-plus yards. The majority of the chunk yardage the Commanders picked up versus the Broncos was YAC. The Bills have allowed the 6th-fewest yards after the catch and fewer than 200 passing yards in both contests this season. The Commanders had one play of 20-plus yards versus the Cardinals in Week 1.

I like parlaying the Howell under with the under on Terry McLaurin’s receiving yards prop. McLaurin has just a 14% target rate per route run – same as Jahan Dotson, and Curtis Samuel – and a 16% target share this season. Outside a 30-yard TD catch in Week 2, TMC has totaled six catches for 55 yards through two games. Prefer the 4.5 receptions under versus the yardage.

The BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet projects running back Brian Robinson Jr. to fly over his carry total set at 14.5 (projected for 17 attempts at -110) which correlates and bolsters my stance on betting the under on the Commanders passing game.

My Picks:

  • Bills -6.5 (-110 BetMGM)
  • Buffalo total points band 21-30 (+135 DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • Under 43.5 (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)

My Props:

Minnesota Vikings (MIN) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (LAC) – Spread: MIN -1

Two 0-2 teams face off in what is projected to be a high-scoring affair. I think this game is fascinating from a handicapping perspective because both teams just find ways to lose their NFL games in dramatic fashion. But come the late afternoon window in Week 3, somebody must emerge the victor. Although I’d be lying if I didn’t say that betting +7500 on a tie outcome won’t be on my betting card this week. Because let’s be honest. A tie between these teams would be so on-brand.

As for the matchups, the high projected total is spot on. These defenses will not be able to stop the opposing offenses, especially in dome conditions. Both offenses play fast and are more than happy to pass the ball at will. LAC has shown more of a willingness to run the football than Minnesota, but that might not be the case if they go another week without Austin Ekeler. And we saw Kellen Moore’s offense absolutely obliterate this Vikings defense back in Week 11 of the 2022 season, with Dallas posting over 450 yards of total offense.

All in all, I opened viewing this game as a straight pick ‘em, but I am leaning toward the Vikings coming off extra rest playing at home. The only case for LA rests on its quarterback, Justin Herbert, as the superior quarterback. But that has resulted in 0-2 versus the spread so far this season.

I still think Kirk Cousins is the inferior QB, and Minnesota’s hot run of one-score victories from last season is already regressing. Minnesota is 0-2 in one-score games thus far as are the LA Chargers. That scares me.

But, the Brandon Stanley defense and coaching – or lack of it – is just killing the Chargers. They have the second-worst pressure rate in the NFL.

And at least the Vikings showed some promise on defense with a smart defensive game plan to try and limit the Eagles in Week 2. Brian Flores coaxed the Eagles into running – they did – and it may have worked had it not been for Jalen Hurts ripping the ball downfield for big plays.

Flores also has experience against Justin Herbert dating back to 2020. Held Herbert to 20 points and under 200 passing yards.

And although both offenses are excellent overall, Minnesota owns a slight edge in nearly every category. And aside from the QBs, Minnesota boasts the more talented group of playmakers headlined by Justin Jefferson. Give me Vikings at -1 or just bet the money line.

As for the total, I don’t think it’s smart to keep chasing It up. Opened at 49.5 and are up to 54/53.5 at most books. Per the Action Network, four games have closed 54 or higher since start of last season with the under an undefeated 4-0. Considering how these two teams constantly fail to meet expectations, I’ll bet they come up just short of 54 points scored. So, unless you can find a better number, I’ll stick with the under on the bloated total.

I honestly feel more comfortable backing the player props in this spot, after successfully hitting on the Chargers overs last week.

Mike Williams has gone over 61.5 receiving yards in his last five games where he has been healthy.

The Vikings rank first in pass rate over expectation in the red zone (+18%). Chargers rank 6th in passing TD rate allowed. Kirk Cousins over 1.5 passing TDs…cold-stone lock. He’s gone over 1.5 passing TDs in 8 of his last 11 home games.

Tight end T.J. Hockenson is super involved in the Vikings’ offense and has gone over 4.5 receptions in 7 of his last 12 full games with Minnesota (including twice this year); easy over at plus-money odds in a shootout environment.

Chargers No. 3 WR Joshua Palmer just missed on a TD score last week. But he remains a full-time player in 3 WR sets when the Chargers get into the red zone. It’s more likely that Mike Williams scores than Palmer in Week 3…but Palmer’s 72% snap rate in the red zone suggests he has a prime opportunity

My Picks:

  • Vikings -1 (-105 DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • Under 54 (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)

My Props:

Seattle Seahawks (SEA) vs. Carolina Panthers (CAR) – Spread: SEA -6.5

The Seahawks stunned the Lions in Week 2, pulling off the upset in overtime in a shootout at Ford Field. Despite entering the game without their starting tackles, Geno Smith and the offense rebounded in a big way. On the year, Seattle’s red-zone offense ranks 4th (71%) – a big improvement from their 2022 struggles in that area of the field.

The Carolina offense has been underwhelming to say the least. 31st in yards per play, 27th in red-zone scoring and 25th in third-down conversion rate. The offense has not been good enough with Bryce Young at quarterback. Young is dealing with an ankle injury and is unlikely to face Seattle in Week 3. Andy Dalton is the backup and honestly might be an upgrade of the offense overall for Carolina given his experience and effectiveness last season. Dalton was 6-8 as a starter in 2022. 7-7 against the spread.

Defensively, both Seattle and Carolina have struggled immensely in the red zone ranking 31st and 23rd respectively in red zone scoring allowed. Seattle’s defense has struggled overall through two weeks allowing 5.9 yards per play (only the Bears/Chargers are worse). 31st in expected points versus the pass and third-most passing yards allowed per game.

Carolina’s defense has looked better on paper – 7th best in yards per play, 4th fewest passing yards allowed per game – but I think that’s much more of a result of the two teams they have faced. Don’t think their defense is as good as the numbers suggest, especially versus the pass. Atlanta and New Orleans hardly offer the same firepower as Seattle does. And Carolina has still shown a big weakness toward the run ranking 8th in rushing yards allowed per game.

We should see an improvement and potentially the best version of Carolina’s offense versus a horrible Seattle defense in Week 3. Not as sold that the Panthers’ defense slows down Seattle despite their noteworthy defensive metrics. So, I actually like the over on this game.

Was not as bullish on it from a sides perspective until the Young news broke. As a result, I am backing the Red Rifle.

From Week 12 onward last season, Seattle went 2-8 versus the spread. They have won by 7-plus points in just 2 of their last 12 games. They also lost versus Carolina last year at home 30-24 with Sam Darnold at quarterback. Love the over and Panthers to cover.

As for props, I think it’s prime time to buy low on the Panthers offense with Dalton under center. Rookie quarterbacks are notorious for holding back fantasy production, so I like targeting some of these WRs with a veteran signal-caller now under center.

Again, Young ranked last in catchable target % through two games per Fantasy Points. No QB was setting up his WRs to fail more than Young. Last year, Dalton ranked second behind only Brock Purdy in catchable target percentage.

Adam Thielen caught seven of his 9 targets (29% target share) for 54 yards in Week 2.

But the target share leader was rookie Jonathan Mingo (10). He had a lot of air yards (105) that resulted in just 26 receiving yards and three receptions after running a route on all but one of Bryce Young‘s dropbacks. All things being equal, we could see a massive game for Mingo with the QB upgrade in Week 3. He owns a 22% target share and 44% air yards share (10th overall) through two games.

As for Hayden Hurst, he’s a full-time player who is tied for 9th in receptions among tight ends this season (four per game). In back-to-back weeks, Seattle’s defense has allowed two different tight ends to surpass 49 yards receiving. Five different WRs have surpassed 46 yards versus Seattle’s defense through two games.

My Picks:

  • Panthers +6.5 (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • Over 41.5 (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)

My Props:

Kansas City Chiefs (KC) vs. Chicago Bears (CHI) – Spread: KC -12.5

What a mess this could be. The Bears are 12.5-point road underdogs versus the reigning Super Bowl champions. And all the news outlets that have been covering this game can’t stop talking about Justin Fields and his lack of progression as a passer two games into the 2023 season. Obviously, the Chiefs are going to win, but can they cover the massive spread? Well, historically speaking here are the key trends to look at per the Action Network. KC is 9-13-1 against the spread as double-digit home favorites. But it should be noted that while KC is 4-8 against the spread over their last 12 games as double-digit favorites, they have covered four of their last six double-digit favored games at home. The non-covers were against the Broncos (divisional opponent) and the Giants (playing after a loss on Monday night football). Considering the last time KC was double-digit favorites at home they didn’t cover, I’d say they put the ultimate beatdown to build momentum for their offense.

Because if any team can’t cover their side of the spread, it’s the Bears. Chicago is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games. 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as double-digit underdogs.

They just lost their defensive coordinator. So, although Fields and the disconnect with the coaching staff have been headlining news outlets, I don’t see any situation where the Chiefs offense doesn’t dismantle the worst defense in the NFL.

As for the total, I lean toward the under. Mahomes is 9-2 toward the under at home over his last 11 games. When teams don’t push them playing in a hostile Arrowhead environment, they tend to go under the projected total.

As for props, it starts with Fields. He’s going to run more. Last week was an outlier. Rushed for just three yards on four carries. It was very unusual to not see Fields rushing. Lowest carry total since Week 11 of his rookie year (in a game he didn’t finish). Again, looks like a major outlier performance. Said he wants to play more like himself. And that’s as one of the league’s most electric rushers and playmakers in space. He’s rushed for at least 57.5 yards in 80% of his last 10 games.

I also like the overs on some RBs. The whispers continue to grow for Roschon Johnson seeing an expanded role, especially as a receiver. He’s 2-0 over 8.5 receiving yards through his first two NFL games. Week 3 will be third with the Bears going pass-heavy against negative game script. Johnson has nine targets through two games with a 30% target rate per route run.

On the Chiefs side, I have no clue which WR Is going to have a big game. KC rotates all their guys, making it tough to sort through. However, the backfield is more clear-cut. Isiah Pacheco carried the ball 12 times for 70 yards in Week 2 but had just 2 targets. Not Ideal receiving usage, but all other KC RBs combined for two carries. And his snap rate (51%) and route participation were encouraging compared to Week 1. I’d be betting on Pacheco ahead of a matchup versus the lowly Chicago Bears run defense. Rachaad White rushed for 73 yards versus the Bears in Week 2.

And dating back to Week 10 – when Pacheco started playing full snaps as the Chiefs RB1 – he has rushed for over 55.5 rushing yards in 70% of his games.

My Picks:

  • Chiefs -12.5 (-110 BetMGM)
  • Under 48.5 (-110 FanDuel Sportsbook)

My Props:

Arizona Cardinals (ARI) vs. Dallas Cowboys (DAL) – Spread: DAL -12.5

By principle only, I am going to be taking the Arizona Cardinals as double-digit home dogs. They are 2-0 versus the spread this season and after outplaying expectations in each of their two contests. Are they a great team? No. But let’s put this into perspective on whether they can go 3-0 versus the spread facing Dallas.

Note that a Joshua Dobbs-led Titans team – in Dobbs’ first NFL start no less without Derrick Henry – lost 27-13 in Dallas in Week 17 last year. The score was 17-13 entering the fourth quarter. Tennessee allowed 124 yards due to penalties.

Dobbs has been a fun story since joining the Cardinals late this offseason, and his plucky playstyle will keep the Cardinals in this game long enough to cover. He boasts mobility to help mitigate the Dallas pass rush, and he has shown off-script playmaking under pressure. Under duress this season, Dobbs is fourth in completion percentage and yards per attempt (8.4).

As for the two offenses… here are some other interesting nuggets toward the under at 43. Both teams are below average in yards per play (5.0 vs 4.7). Both teams have bottom red zone offenses. Dallas ranks first in the fewest yards allowed per play (3.5) and red zone defense. Arizona ranks 16th (5.2) in yards per play and red zone defense (60%) allowed – equivalent to New England.

As for props, I’ll continue to back Dobbs, this time with his passing yards. It’s extremely low at 187.5 passing yards. He went over that number last week and tossed for 232 passing yards when he faced the Cowboys in Dallas back in Week 17 of the 2022 season. At home, I think Dobbs hits at least 200 passing yards (matching the projections) in what figures to be a very pass-heavy game script. For some SGP action, sprinkle in some correlated receiving overs such as Marquise Brown (41.5 receiving yards). No Trevon Diggs, who tore his ACL in practice this week.

My Picks:

  • Cardinals +12.5 (-110 FanDuel Sportsbook)
  • Under 43.0 (-105 FanDuel Sportsbook)

My Props:

Las Vegas Raiders (LV) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT) – Spread: LV -2.5

Unstoppable force versus the immovable object. The Raiders have done an excellent job keeping Jimmy Garoppolo upright this season, allowing their quarterback to face pressure at the league’s lowest rate. He has been pressured just eight times.

Enter the Pittsburgh Steelers defensive line that ranks first – by a large margin – in pressure rate generated.

Meanwhile, Kenny Pickett has been constantly under duress as the fifth-most pressured QB versus the 49ers and Cleveland Browns – arguably the league’s top two defenses. The Raiders pass rush? Dead last in pressure rate.

This is an easy buy-back spot for the Steelers offense after they have struggled through the first two games of the season. The Raiders rank dead last in expected points added on defense through two weeks. They were third worst in that category in 2022.

And it’s a potential trap game for the Raiders offense against a fierce Steelers defensive line that will bring heat that Garoppolo has avoided thus far. They will likely have to run the ball with Josh Jacobs versus a run defense that has struggled immensely through two games, allowing nearly 200 rushing yards per game.

The Raiders lead the NFL in completion percentage allowed (82%). This is because they play a cover 2 look with their safeties back. Opens the field for RBs and TEs to feast underneath. So that’s how we attack it from a props market.

Running back Jaylen Warren has over 2.5 catches in four straight games including 4.5 per game over his last two this season. He is tied for league-lead in targets (11) among RBs. He is the preferred receiving back over Najee Harris and should fly over 2.5 catches. No-brainer bet at plus-odds. I also like the Pat Freiermuth over at 3.5 receptions (+110 BetMGM) as he won’t catch just one pass every week. Raiders have allowed 7.5 receptions per game to tight ends this season.

My Picks:

  • Steelers ML (+102 DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • Steelers over 20.5 points (+102 DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • Over 43.0 (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)

My Props:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (PHI) – Spread: PHI -4.5

Tampa Bay has gone 2-0 versus the spread and straight up with Baker Mayfield as their quarterback. He has not thrown an interception. But their overall net success rate has been average at best in their wins. Turnovers have been the story of their season thus far, as they boast a +2.5 turnover margin – second-best to only the Dallas Cowboys. The third-best team? The Philadelphia Eagles.

Now the Eagles are hardly without their warts. The defense has taken a major step backward since last year. Their dealing with injuries and the loss of Jonathan Gannon as a defensive mind has taken shape. However, their defensive line remains elite. Fourth in pressure rate.

Considering the Eagles were a touchdown favorite (closed at 5.5) versus the Vikings (who are a better team than the Buccaneers despite the Week 1 outcome), I don’t think five points is nearly enough for Tampa Bay, even at home. I’ll gladly take the Eagles -4.5 as road favorites.

Both Eagles games have gone over, so I’ll continue to bet on that trend continuing with their defensive issues. Tampa Bay has the requisite weapons on offense to take advantage of the middle of the field.

And that’s where the player props come in.

Cade Otton played 97% of the snaps for the second straight game in Week 2. And this time, it came with more targets. With the Eagles’ secondary extremely weak towards the middle of the field, expect Otton to be peppered with targets from Mayfield. Caught all 6 of his targets for 41 yards in Week 2, while running a route on 78% of dropbacks. That led the Buccaneers pass-catchers.

Godwin has gone over 53.5 receiving yards in 10 of his last 12 games played. The Eagles are allowing second-most passing yards per game through two weeks.

My Picks:

  • Eagles -4.5 (-115 FanDuel Sportsbook)
  • Over 46 (-110 FanDuel Sportsbook)

My Props:

Cincinnati Bengals (CIN) vs. Los Angeles Rams (LAR) – Spread: -1.5

A lot of line movement for this matchup given the ambiguous situation regarding Joe Burrow’s health. The total has moved from 47 to 44. Spread opened at Bengals -7 to Bengals -3 at home. Burrow opened up Thursday with a DNP.  Given the situation, I’ll avoid sides, but I’ll happily buy low on the total.

The Rams offense ranks second in the NFL in yards, 9th in points and first in red-zone efficiency. The Bengals’ defense ranks 22nd in yards per play allowed, 19th in points per game and 23rd in red-zone efficiency.

As for props, the Rams’ offense is vastly overdue for positive passing TD regression. Second in pass attempts per game and third in passing yards per game but dead last in pass TD rate. The Bengals are allowing the 10th-highest pass TD rate.

I think the Rams’ offense will be able to move the ball so bet the over on their team total.

For props, I think there’s value in some Rams players’ TD props. Tyler Higbee ranks third in the NFL in routes and fourth in route participation among TEs (84%). He’s also just one of 9 tight ends to have played 90% or more of their team’s red-zone snaps this season. After finishing 3rd in targets inside the 10-yard line last year…I think he gets the opportunity if the Rams dial up a pass in the red zone. The Bengals have allowed a receiving TD to a tight end for two straight games. And given the slow start for the Bengals offense this year, I think it’s safe to sprinkle in Tyler Higbee’s first touchdown action should the Rams strike first.

My Picks:

  • Over 43.5 (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)

My Props:


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App