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NFL Betting Primer: Top Picks & Player Prop Bets for Every Game (Week 4)

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Introducing the Week 4 edition of the NFL Betting primer, proudly brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm thrilled to be your guide as we delve into each game on the NFL slate. Here, you'll find expert insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and enticing player props that could pave the way for impressive single-game parlays. Note that early in the week the props are mainly limited to just Underdog and Prizepicks, until normal sportsbooks release their player props closer to Sunday.

Before we dive into Week 4, let's take a moment to reflect on the performance in Week 3 and overall. Donald Parham Jr. came through with the big 1st TD score, which set our bankrolls nicely for the remaining Sunday slate of games.

Below is the official record on the recommended picks from Week 3 (not including Thursday night football where we went 4-1). Week 4 Thursday night football was ROUGH, with us going 0-4 with the official picks. Let’s bounce back this weekend.

Week 3:

  • Spread: 6-7
  • Totals: 8-9
  • Player Props: 19-17
  • ML: 1-0
  • Overall: 34-33

2023 season:

  • Spread: 14-23
  • Totals: 18-19
  • Player Props: 44-38
  • ML: 1-2
  • Overall: 77-80

Whether you're a seasoned betting aficionado or just beginning your journey into the captivating world of NFL wagering - like myself, now that my state has embraced sports betting - this primer is your go-to source for valuable perspectives and well-informed picks for the upcoming NFL week.

Prepare to approach the NFL season with a sharp betting focus as we break down the Week 4 matchups and unveil our favorite bets and top picks. So, without further ado, here are my top selections for all remaining 15 Week 3 games. Get ready to elevate your NFL betting game!

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NFL Betting Primer: Week 4

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Atlanta Falcons (JAC -3)

Our first game in London kicks off in Week 4, with the Jaguars "hosting" the Atlanta Falcons for the first of their two games played across the pond (in back-to-back weeks no less).

Opened as Jags -4, the line has moved with some Falcons money. The Jaguars have struggled in back-to-back weeks, following losses to the Chiefs and Texans. However, the losses were most self-inflicted, especially last week. Lost a fumble, interception, drops, and missed field goals. A blocked FG. Kick-off return allowed for a touchdown on a short kickoff. 1-3 in the red zone. 5 for 13 on third downs. They had 400 net yards and lost. Again, self-inflicted wounds killed the Jaguars for the second straight week.

Atlanta's defense has been solid thus far, but they have allowed an average of 22 points per game over their last two matchups. They allowed over 350 yards on defense in their first road matchup last week versus Detroit last week (243 passing yards) after keeping opposing passing games under 150 passing yards at home through the first two games. They also lost handily by two touchdowns, in a game that was never particularly within striking distance.

Overall, the Dirty Birds ranks 6th in pressure rate. I don't think their defense will roll over against a struggling Jaguars offense, but I don't think they hold them under 20 points. Because when Doug Pederson took back play-calling duties in the second half versus the Texans, they immediately scored on the opening drive. They totaled 17 points in the second half alone.

As for the Falcons offense versus the Jaguars defense, I am giving the edge to the home team in this spot. Desmond Ridder has been the 7th-most pressured QB over the last two games. If he's not kept upright in a clean pocket, he doesn't perform. The Jaguars will be able to put pressure on Ridder to disrupt him. Their defense ranks first in hurry percentage and 4th in total pressures. But they have just five sacks. Look for some regression to kick in against Desmond Ridder who owns the fourth-highest pressure-to-sack rate percentage (29%) this season. Ridder is also notorious for playing better at home than on the road, as are the Falcons under Arthur Smith. Atlanta averaged fewer than 18 points per game on the road last season.

The Falcons QB also leads the NFL in turnover-worthy play rate (6.1%), which suggests he's overdue to turn the ball over. He only has thrown one interception this season to go along with two fumbles (one lost).

The Jaguars’ defense has also been solid versus the ground game this season ranking 6th in yards per carry and 7th in fewest rushing yards allowed per game. If they can limit the Falcons' ground attack and force Atlanta to rely on a more pass-heavy game script, they should be able to come away with a win by at least three points.

I'm probably shying away from the total at 43.5 with my lean toward the under. Opened at 45.5, so not sure there's value in betting a worse number.

Would much rather attack the offenses through player props on the Jaguars’ side of the ball. Travis Etienne Jr. got fed out of the gates in the second half of last week's game versus the Texans totaling 32 yards on three carries. With Pederson taking over play calling, I expect ETN to get fed. Bet the over. Atlanta is allowing an average of 69 rushing yards to opposing No. 1 RBs this season. His projection in the prop bet cheat sheet loves the over as well, forecasting him for 75.5 rushing yards.

Evan Engram has gone over 40.5 receiving yards in all three of his games this season. The Falcons rank 5th in catches, 12th in yards (53) and 7th in targets (8) to tight ends this season.

Bijan's receiving props are too low. He's had at least 27 receiving yards in all three of his games. He leads all RBs in target share (21%) and is the No. 1 target on his own offense. The Jaguars’ defense has been devasted after the catch this season, allowing the most YAC while ranking 6th in missed tackles. The rookie ranks 6th in total YAC this season.

My Picks:

My Props:

Houston Texans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT -3)

There's no doubt that the Steelers have been on the favorable side of football variance over the past two games.

They've won by 4 and 5 points despite being outgained in yardage in both contests. Turnovers have been the real story with the Steel Curtain generating a +5-turnover margin. Their defense has essentially saved their bacon in back-to-back weeks as the offense looks to find its rhythm.

The offense did play better versus a non-elite defense in Week 3 against the Raiders, which suggests they should be able to find similar to moderate success against the Texans defense that is injured all over the place. They are a below-average defense across several metrics against both the pass and the run.

I'd expect Kenny Pickett and company to do enough on offense to put them in a position to win as they did last week.

Because even though the Texans beat the Jaguars in Week 3 - it was really more of the Jaguars beating themselves than Houston dominating the game.

The key matchup here is the Steelers' pass rush versus the Texans OL, which has allowed a 38% pressure rate to C.J. Stroud this season. And that's been against pretty middling fronts between the Colts, Ravens and Jaguars. I'm afraid Stroud might be in for a harsh reality versus the NFL's second-best defense in generating pressure this season (30%).

Stroud has been elite from a clean pocket - third-highest passer rating, 8.9 yards per attempt - but Week 4 forecasts for his "dirtiest" pocket to date.

With the Steelers presenting issues for the Texans’ offense and Pittsburgh’s offense a bottom-6 scoring unit dating back to last season, I am firmly backing the under here. Pittsburgh is 2-1 toward the under this season and would be 3-0 had it not been for some defensive TD scores in Week 2.

From a player prop perspective, you want to attack the passing/receiving yardage props. Because both these teams are going to throw the ball a lot.

The Steelers rank fourth in pass rate over expectation (+5.1%) and second overall in normal pass rate (74%). The Texans rank fourth in normal pass rate as Stroud ranks second in the NFL in total dropbacks. Ergo, there should be plenty of passing volume to go around to feed the receivers inside dome conditions. And when Stroud does see a clean pocket, he should shred the Steelers secondary. Last week, Jimmy Garoppolo threw for 286 passing yards and 2 TDs when he was kept clean versus Pittsburgh.

George Pickens has gone over 57.5 receiving yards in his last two games, operating as the team's alpha with Diontae Johnson sidelined. The Texans have allowed on average 62 receiving yards to opposing No. 1 WRs over the last three games. 4th in completion rate allowed.

As for the Steelers secondary, they have continued to be shredded when their pass rush doesn't get home. Versus WRs this season they are allowing the 5th-most receiving yards per game (211). 5 WRs have surpassed 50 receiving yards against them in just three games played this season.

My Picks:

My Props:

Indianapolis Colts vs. Los Angeles Rams (IND -1)

The Colts should get back rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson for their Week 4 home game against the LA Rams. He missed last week in the concussion protocol, but the Colts still managed the major upset win versus the Baltimore Ravens. However, it was another instance of the Colts benefiting from major injuries on Baltimore's roster and poor weather conditions. Their kicker nailed three 53-plus yard field goals to will their way to victory. So, although Indy crushed the Texans in Week 2, they were not the superior team (aside from the final score) versus the Ravens.

Fast forward to Week 4, and they find themselves as 1-point home favorites versus the LA Rams - fresh off a disappointing Monday Night Football loss to the Bengals. But that game was close in terms of net success rate for both teams, which has been the case in all three of the Rams' games played this season.

I'd argue strongly that the Colts are the easiest opponent the Rams have faced all year, so I love their chances of LA winning outright. Because the Colts defense - outside stopping the run - will have no answers for a heavy pass gameplan from Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay.

They rank dead last in passes defended (6) and have allowed the 4th-most fantasy points to opposing QBs this season.

I also equally side with the Colts offense taking advantage of a no-named Rams secondary and generally overrated defense. Their unit ranks 4th-worst in pressure rate this season. They have allowed more passing yards in three consecutive games.

And the way to beat them is through the short underneath passing game. They have faced the fewest total air yards this season. Richardson owns the lowest ADOT among QBs this season.

Expect him to pick up chunk yardage with his legs and through the short-quick game versus LA's defense. Bet the over in the dome.

The Colts hit the over through two games with Richardson at QB and head coach Shane Steichen dialing up a fast-paced heavy-passing offensive game plan.

That dovetails into one of my favorite player props, with the over on Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr. His prop is set at 59.5 receiving yards. He's hit 56-plus yards in all his games so far this season, and I expect him to be peppered with targets as the No. 1 primary target option. MPJ boasts a 31% target share through three games. The last two No. 1 WRs that the Rams have faced have gone over the 60-yard mark, with aDOTs of 6.6 and 9.5. Both also caught 6-plus balls. Pittman owns a 5.5 aDOT this season. The over on No. 2 WR Josh Downs is also a sneaky prop to tail as well.

My Picks:

My Props:

Carolina Panthers vs. Minnesota Vikings (MIN -3.5)

The expectations are that Bryce Young will make his return to the lineup, after missing last week. The offense was marginally better with Andy Dalton under center, although it wasn't enough for Carolina to win on the road. Their defense was destroyed by the Seahawks offense - which I expected when I wrote about last week's game in the Week 3 betting primer. Though their defense was overrated based on the weak offenses/QBs they opened the season against.

So, I expect the high-powered Vikings offense to ROLL over the Panthers' reeling defense. I like the over 24.5 points for Minnesota's team total (-102 DraftKings Sportsbook).

And although the Vikings' defense has been terrible - 27 points per game allowed - they have faced two of the best QBs the last two weeks. In Week 1 versus Baker Mayfield, they only gave up 20 - and that was due to a lot of short fields gifted to the Bucs' offense. That game also hit the under at 37 total points. I like the game overall under, and the under on Carolina's offense. Last week against an atrocious Seahawks defense, the Panthers needed a garbage time TD to go over 20 points. Bet the Panthers team total under at 20.5 points (DK Sportsbook -108).

Considering the Panthers offense with Young at QB looks much more like the Bucs than the Eagles/Chargers, I'd opt for the under. Not confident that Carolina can score many points with what we have seen so far from Young. Adam Thielen as the focal point on any offense can only move the needle and generate so many actual points.

Speaking of which.... Thielen's receiving yards prop is listed at 49.5 receiving yards. I'm taking the under. He averaged just 33 receiving yards per game in his first two starts with Young at QB this season. This team is not going to throw nearly as much as they did with Dalton no longer at QB either.

As for the Vikings, I like the over on Jordan Addison. He's gone over the mark in three straight games and has seen his route participation also increase in the offense. Saw a season-high 8 targets in Week 3 but he didn't score.

The Panthers have allowed four different WRs to go over 55 yards over the last two weeks. DK Metcalf hung over 100 yards versus them in Week 3, and Addison is used in a similar fashion (perimeter alignment, 13-plus aDOT) to the Seahawks big-bodied WR.

And although I am firmly on the sell high Alexander Mattison train in fantasy football - he's seeing all the volume he can handle in the offense at the moment. The Panthers are horrible versus the run, so Mattison should easily get over 53.5 rushing yards unless Cam Akers takes over the backfield in Week 4. Carolina has allowed an average of 115 yards and 25 carries to opposing teams.

130 rushing yards allowed in Week 1, 134 in Week 2 and 146 in Week 3. Easy over.

My Picks:

My Props:

New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NO -3)

This is why we watch football. Jameis Winston’s revenge game against a Baker Mayfield-Buccaneers squad that tasted defeat for the first time in Week 3. Although this isn't the first time Winston has faced his old team since joining the Saints. He played them at the start of last season, in Week 2.

The Saints lost 10-20 at home. Winston threw for 236 yards and 1 TD but was intercepted 3 times. Alvin Kamara did not play. Game closed at TB -2.5 with a 44-point total. The Bucs covered and the under hit. Winston was 0-3 vs the spread as the starter last year. 3-3 versus the spread during his six full starts in 2021.

This Week 4 matchup has a lower total at 40.5 than the one last season, with the Saints coming in a 3-point home favorites.

I've been transparent about the Saints being overrated with Derek Carr this season, even though they could easily be 3-0 based on their soft opening schedule. But they blew their massive lead last week and Carr is out as their starting QB.

Still, Winston is one of the league's best backup QBs, 5-4 straight up with the aforementioned 3-6 record versus the spread in his last nine full games.

But don't blame the loss on Winston last week. He got them in field position to kick a game-winning field goal. The team averaged 4.9 yards per play with Winston (3.6 with Carr). But most of their drives got nuked due to penalties.

In my FantasyPros Week 4 forecast, I wrote about how I thought Winston was a potential upgrade for this offense. And I am sticking by that. Because Winston can be this team's answer to its red-zone woes. They rank 27th in red-zone efficiency this season with Carr at the helm. Last year, Winston threw 4 red-zone TDs in three games. In 2021, 11 TD and 0 red-zone interceptions in six full starts.

Winston has completed 69% of his red zone passes for 15 TDs and 0 INTs over the past two seasons (9 full games). Carr last year completed just 42% of his red-zone passes for 11 TD and 2 INTs. This year more struggles, with 29% completion rate and just two TDs on 17 red-zone attempts. Woof.

And on the Buccaneers' side, they have also struggled in the red zone. 30th in red-zone scoring.

To make matters worse - or better if you want to bet the under – both these defenses have been stout in the red zone. Third best in TD rate allowed (33%) behind only Buffalo and Cleveland.

The under is clearly the play here. Don't think that's too hard to grasp. But from a sides perspective, I am backing the Winston-led Saints. I think we are getting a better price because he's viewed as a backup QB...but I've laid out reasons why that may not be the case. The Saints are also getting back a major offensive boost in the form of Alvin Kamara, while the Buccaneers are playing on a short week. Their secondary is banged up and they have to play on the road. They have also been horrible on third downs (30th) which should aid in the Saints in sustaining drives.

Cornerback Marshon Lattimore has also traditionally locked down Bucs No. 1 WR, Mike Evans, who has accounted for 75% of the team's offensive TDs this season. Lattimore has been balling out to start the season, allowing just a 20.8 passer rating in coverage this season.

Think there's more than enough to back Saints -3. Because as unimpressive as the Saints' 2-1 start has been (should be 3-0), the Buccaneers are another fake 2-1 team that beat two teams that are currently 0-3.

My Picks:

My Props:

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Football Team (PHI -8)

I'm old enough to remember when the Commanders were 7-point favorites against a "tanking" Cardinals team back in Week 1. Oh, how things have changed.

I think it's easy to look at this line and just lock-in the Eagles as seven-point home favorites. Sam Howell was an utter disaster last week at home versus a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Four interceptions and nine sacks.

And the early bettors agreed with me, moving the line to 8 points since the open. Losing the key number sucks, but it's still not enough to get me off backing the Eagles. They won handily by two touchdowns versus an inferior Buccaneers team at home on Monday night. I'd put the Commanders squarely in that tier of team; one that can beat bad teams but crumble in the presence of the elite. Keep in mind that both their wins this season came as 4th quarter comebacks.

The Eagles defensive line is better than the Bills, and that is going to make for a long day for Howell, who leads the NFL in sacks (19) and pressure-to-sack rate (40%).  Eagles rank 6th in total pressures (35, nearly 12 per game).

You'd hope the Commanders offense could establish a ground game to help take pressure off their quarterback, but that will be tough given the Eagles D ranks second-best in fewest rushing yards allowed per game to RBs (40.3).

And I'm sure the Eagles haven't forgotten when the Commanders beat the at home last season despite entering the game as 10.5-point favorites. Keep in mind that it took three lost fumbles (one for a TD) and 40:20 time of possession advantage for Washington to pull off the upset.

Like the Bills, the Eagles have dominated time of possession this season with their unstoppable ground attack. That made it problematic for Washington's offense/defense last week and I feel strongly it will be more of the same in Week 4.

As for totals, it's back to the under. These teams are a combined 4-2 toward the under this season. Liked the under for the Bills-Commanders at 43.5 last week and view this as a similar spot to bet it again.

And similarly, we will be approaching the player props with a similar mindset. We had a clean sweep with the passing yardage unders for Howell, and I think it's wise to go back to it.

He has only gone over this number in one of his four total NFL starts (Week 2) and that came on the back of three passing plays of 30-plus yards. The Eagles boast nearly the same yards per attempt on defense as the Bills (6.7 vs 6.6).

McLaurin has just a 17% target share this season - the same as Jahan Dotson. Outside a 30-yard TD catch in Week 2, TMC has totaled 12 catches for 96 yards through three games.

My Picks:

My Props:

Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins (BUF -3)

Hard to not view this game as the game of the week. Miami's high-powered offense heads up north to take on the Buffalo Bills, in a game with a projected total of 53.5 points. Opened at 49.5 and it has been hammered up. But as we learned last week between the Vikings-Chargers, high totals that are catching steam don't always come through. The trend that pushed me away from the over on the total in that game was the following:

4 games have closed 54 or higher since start of last season with the under an undefeated 4-0. Make that five games after last week. I'll just wait till the number maxes out and then take the under. Trust the process.

Besides, I'm much more interested in this game from a sides perspective, and for me it's quickly riding the waves of the Miami Dolphins. The only reason the Bills are favorites is because they are playing at home. But I tend to think that three points for home teams is overrating home-field advantage. Besides, we saw the Dolphins nearly win OUTRIGHT versus Buffalo as 13.5-point dogs in the playoffs last season with a third-string QB.

They just scored 70 points without Jaylen Waddle - who is already back at practice.

And although the Bills have gotten back on track versus the Commanders and Raiders, last week's win was not what it was all cracked up to be. Their net success rate ranked third-worst among winning teams in Week 3. The Commanders’ offense was able to move the ball decently between the 20s versus the Bills defense, but the sacks and turnovers nuked the points Washington could score. Had they been able to convert either red-zone drive into scores, it could have actually been a tight game in the fourth quarter. But the turnovers and pick-six buried the Commanders' hopes in the end.

That will hardly be the case for the Dolphins offense, based on how quickly Tua Tagovailoa will get the ball out. Offensive tackle Terron Armstead's return should also not be ignored as the Dolphins are 7-3 straight up when he and Tagovailoa have been healthy over the past two seasons.

As for props, it's James Cook overs. If the Bills have any chance of slowing down the Dolphins offense they are going to have to control their time of possession. They do that by running the ball through Cook. Cook currently ranks third in the NFL rushing yards. His prop is set egregiously too low at 55.5 rushing yards. The Dolphins defense ranks dead last in expected pointed added versus the run this season.

Buffalo's run defense has been equally as bad - allowing 5.6 yards per carry to opposing RBs - setting up Raheem Mostert to go over his rushing prop set at 51.5 rushing yards.

The BettingPros Draft Prop Cheat Sheet loves the over on Dawson Knox's receiving yards set at a meager 24.5 yards. He's only gone over this number once this season. But he did it twice in three games versus the Dolphins last season. And before last week's demolition of the Broncos - where no tight ends were involved - Miami had allowed an average of 64 receiving yards to tight ends in more back-and-forth contests.

My Picks:

My Props:

Tennessee Titans vs. Cincinnati Bengals (CIN -2)

The Bengals got back on track versus the LA Rams, coming away with their first victory of the season to avoid a dreaded 0-3 start. Joe Burrow played after being extremely questionable with his calf injury. The offense went extremely pass-heavy (31 attempts in the first half) versus just seven rushes. Burrow would finish with nearly 50 passing attempts as the offense moved the ball better in the second half. Through three games, the Bengals have the second-highest neutral pace rate.

And I think that's where they can take advantage of this Titan's pass funnel defense that is extremely vulnerable versus the passing game. They rank 5th in passing yards allowed allowing at least 289 passing yards to three of the last QBs they have faced. Deshaun Watson had a career day as a Cleveland Brown passing versus the Titans.

Tennessee will undoubtedly stop the Bengals running game, but I am not sure the Cincinnati will care as a team that is more than willing to drop back 50-plus times in a game. Another week removed from the re-injured calf injury, I think the Bengals passing game starts to get on a roll here versus a Titans team that is 1-2 with their only win coming in OT. Their sluggish offense ranks 29th in scoring and yards per play. Meanwhile, the Bengals defense just held the Rams to one third-down conversion on Monday Night Football. Tennessee ranks second-to-last in third down conversions per game (3.3) this season.

These two teams met last season at Tennessee and the Bengals won (and covered) 20-16.

As for the total, I just don't think the Titans offer enough juice on offense to push the Bengals into the over. Ryan Tannehill is 9-6 toward the under as the team's starter dating back to last season.

For props, I am betting the under on Joe Mixon's rushing prop. His rush lines of 56, 59 and 65 the last three weeks have put him over his Week 4 betting line, but the Titans defense is a different animal. No RB they have faced this year has gone over 45 yards. They haven't allowed 60 rushing yards to RB since Week 3 of last season.

Mixon might come close to the 53.5 rushing yards mark, but the fact that Cincy might limit his rushing volume to avoid the strengths of the Titans defense has me backing Mixon under.

As for the overs, I'd be betting on both Bengals WRs to go over their receiving yards totals. 6 WRs have gone over 60 receiving yards versus the Titans this season. Tee Higgins left with an injury after playing 86% of the snaps in Week 3. He was virtually non-existent on the field, going for just 2 catches on 21 yards despite 8 targets. In two of three games Higgins has done nothing with high target volume. Still, his volatile nature suggests he will bounce back in Week 4. His injury is not believed to be severe as it was reported later to be cramps.

My Picks:

My Props:

Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens (CLE -3)

Baltimore came up just short last week versus the Colts, losing in dramatic overtime fashion. Although the wounded Ravens had several chances to win the game, they were not able to overcome it. And now they face a tall task hitting the road to take on the NFL's best defense in the Cleveland Browns. Opening at 1-point underdogs, the Browns have been backed by 3 points now as they host their divisional rivals. However, Baltimore will get much-needed help across their offensive line with Ronnie Stanely and Tyler Linderbaum returning to practice. Starting safety Marcus Williams also returned.

Getting back to OL starters will be essential for the Ravens to pull off the road upset versus an elite defense. Although, I would firmly argue that Lamar Jackson is by far the best QB they have faced this season between a rusty Joe Burrow, Kenny Pickett and Ryan Tannehill. And we still know that Deshaun Watson is going through his growing pains as a passer even after he showed out versus the Titans. Because all QBs play well against that defense. And the Ravens defense is no slouch, ranking 5th in points added on that side of the ball.

Simply put, I like betting on the Ravens as an underdog coming off a loss. Per the Action Network, Baltimore is 19-4 ATS in their last 23 games as an underdog. And over the last three seasons, Jackson is a perfect 6-0 versus the spread as an underdog.

Given the tightness that this game calls for, I'll take the +3 and the team with the superior playmaker at quarterback.

The under is too easy here. Yards per play allowed on defense this season: Browns No.1, Ravens No. 2. This is shaping up to be a classic AFC North dogfight.

And that means we are going back to player prop unders.

Starting with tight end David Njoku, who has been non-existent in the Browns offense this season. Just an 11% target share through three games. Only owns a 12% target rate per route run, which is tied for the lowest among TEs with at least 10 targets this season.

The matchup is also brutal versus the Ravens defense, who have allowed just 2.7 receptions and just 15 receiving yards to tight ends through three games.

The only "over" prop I am taking here is for Amari Cooper. His reception line is set at 4.5, which I think he should easily go over. He's emerged as Watson's go-to guy with 7 catches in back-to-back games. Cooper has traditionally also been better playing at home, going over this number in 70% of his home games dating back to last season.

And finally, the matchup calls for it. Baltimore's secondary is still not 100 percent, which is why 6 WRs have gone for 6-plus receptions in their first three games. No team has allowed MORE WR receptions per game than the Ravens (19.7).

My Picks:

My Props:

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Chicago Bears vs. Denver Broncos (DEN -3.5)

I was absolutely fascinated to see how the market would approach this matchup between the stoppable force and the movable object that are these two teams. The early bettors are backing the Broncos as 3.5-point road favorites after they opened as 1.5-point road favorites despite coming off a 50-point loss to the Miami Dolphins.

And I think I tend to agree here with backing Denver, and I am not overly concerned about the hook. Because when the Bears lose games. They LOSE games.

Per the Action Network, when opponents score more than 20 points against a Bears team led by Justin Fields, they are 19-0 SU. All five Fields wins have come when opponents scored 20 or fewer.

It's been 10 games since a Bears game was decided by a field goal.

And although the biggest storylines about these two teams is how they are both spiraling - the Denver offense has not been the problem.

Russell Wilson ranks 6th in yards per attempt (7.6) and 6th in passer rating (99.5) this season. Denver is averaging a respectable 23 points per game. Now it's a bit juiced because of the Hail Mary completion in Week 2, but the overall offensive metrics suggest that Denver's offense in not the major issue in the Mile High City.

It's more than enough to back their offense against one of the league's worst defenses in the Chicago Bears. They have allowed the second-highest TD passing percentage this season.

The only defense that has allowed a higher passing TD percentage. The Denver Broncos. This defense is still licking its wounds after getting boat-raced by Miami.

And this is hardly a one-game blip, because they melted down versus the Washington Commanders in Week 2 and didn't play great in Week 1 versus the Raiders.

I think we see the Bears offense have one of its best performances of the year versus the Broncos - it's by far the worst defense they have faced - but it won't be enough to get them to cover the spread.

Denver also seems unlikely to take their foot off the gas if they get out to a hot start as they have done through the first three weeks of the season. 16 points per game in the first half. 7th-best. The Bears rank second-to-last in first-half points (5.3).

If anything, I'd just close my eyes and bet the over because these two defenses just can't get out of their own way.

And that means we will be hammering some over on suppressed player props.

The Bears’ defense has allowed the second-most receiving yards to RBs this season. Bet the over on Javonte Williams' receiving yards prop. 13% target share through three games averaging 14 yards per game through the air. Williams also only trails Jaylen Warren - who hit all his receiving overs last week - in target rate per route run (29%) among RBs with at least 10 targets.

My Picks:

My Props:

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas Raiders (LAC -5.5)

At the time of this writing, Jimmy Garoppolo remains in the concussion protocol. Considering guys usually miss the following week after sustaining a concussion I'd bet - literally - that he won't play Sunday. And that means I am 100% backing the Chargers if Las Vegas opts to start Brian Hoyer in his place. As a long-time Patriots fan, I've seen Hoyer play. He is god-awful.

Simply put, 5.5 points isn't enough, and it should be at least a touchdown point spread for the Chargers versus a Hoyer-led Raiders squad.

As for the total, both games went under 47 points between these teams last year. At 48.5 with question marks regarding Jimmy G...I am going right back to the under.

But not for player props.

The injury to Mike Williams should open targets for third-year WR Joshua Palmer to get more involved in the offense. His line is set at 44.5, which he hit in 5of his 6 home games last season when he played at least 65% of the snaps. The Raiders have allowed 66-plus receiving yards to four different WRs over thie last two games.

My Picks:

My Props:

Dallas Cowboys vs. New England Patriots (DAL -6.5)

From a talent perspective, this game shouldn't be this close. The Dallas Cowboys roster is stacked with talent, while the New England Patriots are lackluster at best. But the way the Patriots play with strong defense keeps them in games. Their two losses this season have come against two of the three remaining undefeated franchises. They lost by 5 and 7 points. And their net success rate ranked inside the top 5 both weeks, suggesting they were not completely overmatched, as the close scores also suggest.

Meanwhile, Dallas was a team we faded last week for success. I identified that 12.5 points was dramatically too high for a road team. And they lost outright. Because Dallas' offensive is overrated. 18th in yards per play (5.0). And the more glaring issue is the Cowboys' struggles in the red zone.

27th (40%) in RZ efficiency. Only the Texans, Titans and Buccaneers are worse. Last year under Kellen Moore the Cowboys ranked No. 1 in red zone efficiency. Mike McCarthy's taking over as the playcaller has limited the ceiling of Dallas' offense. They rank second in rushing attempts and 7th highest neutral rushing rate. Last in expected pass rate and 5th-lowest pass rate over expectation.

Dallas wants to run the football and play defense. It's a winning formula to beat inferior teams by field goals, not by touchdowns.

Dallas wins after being upset by the Cardinals, but the Patriots defense keeps the game close to pick up the cover. It's also possible that the Patriots offense performs over expectation after the Cowboys were exposed versus the run game in Week 3.

Having former Cowboys Will Grier and Ezekiel Elliott doesn't hurt the Patriots chances either of digging up intel on Dallas' strengths/weaknesses.

As for props, I am not overthinking this one. Tony Pollard leads the NFL in carries and touches. The team wants to feed him. He's had at least 70 rushing yards in all of his games this season.

I also like fading Michael Gallup after he posted a big game last week. He runs the majority of his routes from the perimeter (95%) where the Patriots defense has been better against defending WRs. Gallup totaled just 13 yards through Weeks 1 and 2 before going off for 92 yards in Week 3. Seems flukey. He caught three passes of 19-plus yards.

The BettingPros Prop Cheat Sheet agrees, with Gallup forecasted for just 25 receiving yards.

My Picks:

My Props:

San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals (SF -14)

The Cardinals were a fun story up against the Dallas Cowboys, getting the upset and cementing their status as a perfect 3-0 versus the spread with Joshua Dobbs as their quarterback. But the sportsbooks are not buying the Cinderella story, with Dobbs and company two-TD underdogs on the road versus the SF 49ers.

San Fran covered the double-digit point spread versus the Giants last Thursday night at home. And when they played Arizona at home last year, they won by 28 points to more than cover the 14-point spread.

There's no reason to think that SF can't continue to dominate their inferior opponents playing at home considering they have won by 13-plus points at home in six of their last seven home games (excluding the Divisional Playoff Game versus Dallas). Only twice at home last year (vs. LAC/KC) did the 49ers not win by at least 13 points during the regular season (78%).

With extra time to prepare for the Cardinals, Dobbs' undefeated run versus the spread comes to an end.

For totals, I'd lean over on the 49ers team total over 29.5 or just bet the game under at 44.5.

The average point total in the 49ers' games at home last season where they won by 13-plus points was 40 total points.

From the perspective of the prop market, I will continue to back the 49ers’ faithful. I'll take the firm under on Zach Ertz's receiving yards line set at 27.5 receiving yards. He's only gone over this number one time this season despite seeing huge target numbers through two weeks. He played just 52% of the snaps while running a route on just 64% of dropbacks in Week 3. He turned back into a pumpkin (it is autumn after all) with just 2 catches for 6 yards on 2 targets versus the Cowboys. His snaps have dipped for three straight games. Not heading in the right direction for the 32-year-old tight end.

Especially given the matchup. The 49ers have held Pat Freiermuth, Tyler Higbee and Darren Waller to a combined 7 catches for 35 yards over the last three games.

My Picks:

My Props:

New York Jets vs. Kansas City Chiefs (KC -9.5)

Hate to just copy and paste my analysis from last week's Chiefs game into this spot, but that's just how I feel about the Jets at the moment. They are starting to unravel in Bears fashion, with so much pressure placed on their defense to stop opposing offenses on every single possession. Their defense is obviously superior to the Bears - but the lack of offensive firepower the Jets have with Zach Wilson gives me zero confidence in backing them against the spread.

KC has covered five of their last seven double-digit favored games at home. The non-covers were against the Denver Broncos (divisional opponent) and the New York Giants (playing after a loss on Monday night football). Considering KC was able to cover as a double-digit favorite just last week, I'd say they roll and continue to build momentum for their offense.

Again, Dallas scored 30 points on this defense in their only road game played this season and they still rank 22nd in yards allowed per game (350). They have stifled team in the red zone - 5th in red zone efficiency - but KC's offense ranks third in red-zone scoring efficiency. New York might keep things close to the start, but they can only fend off Patrick Mahomes for so long without their offense offering any sort of threat.

Wilson is horrible and the Chiefs defense has resurged the last two weeks with the return of Chris Jones. Their defense ranks 6th in fewest yards allowed and 4th in fewest points allowed per game (13.3).

As for the total, I lean toward the under. Mahomes is 9-3 toward the under at home over his last 12 games. When teams don't push them playing in a hostile Arrowhead environment, they tend to go under the projected total. The over just got there barely last week, but I don't think we see it two weeks in a row. Don't expect KC to score 40-plus versus the Jets.

As for player props, the BettingPros Draft Prop Cheat Sheet loves the under on Jerick McKinnon at 10.5 rushing yards. He's been under this number in three straight games and in seven of his last 9 games played. With Kadarius Toney also likely healthier than last week, that opens up fewer gadget/designed rushes for McKinnon. The fact that Isiah Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are also fully healthy, suggests McKinnon sees little usage as a rusher.

I also like the under on Chiefs WR Skyy Moore. KC continues to rotate its WRs to the dismay of fantasy managers, making none safe options for the over. Skyy Moore was targeted six times (four from Mahomes) for a total of 4 catches for 42 yards last week. That was against one of the league's worst defenses. The Jets present a much tougher task, slating Moore to finish with under 3.5 receptions.

But we have one more prop to go over. Zach Wilson under 175.5 passing yards. The number is comically low for an NFL QB, but here we are. Wilson has gone under this number in every game this season. He's gone under this number in 80% of his last 10 games. There's a chance he could get just flat-out benched if Trevor Siemen is active. Bet the under on what projects for a disastrous night for Gang Green's quarterback. Chiefs defense has allowed just 178 passing yards per game this season (6th-fewest). They are allowing just 5.7 yards per pass attempt, which is lower than the Patriots, Cowboys and Bills - all the teams the Jets have faced this season.

My Picks:

My Props:

New York Giants vs. Seattle Seahawks (SEA)

After a tough Week 1 loss, the Seattle Seahawks have shown out in back-to-back games. They gave the Detroit Lions their only loss of the season in a Week 2 overtime victory and took care of business at home against an inferior Panthers unit starting Andy Dalton. Had it not been for the offensive line injuries in Week 1...we could easily be looking at a team that is on the cusp of a 4-0 start.

Meanwhile, the New York Giants enter the week 0-3 versus the spread, featuring two blowout losses to the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers.

The Giants' run defense has been underwhelming, to say the least. They are 4th in yards allowed per game and third in rushing TDs allowed, which will prove problematic versus an offense that has rushed for 114 yards per game while averaging 37 points on offense the last two weeks.

Bet the over on Kenneth Walker's rushing prop, given that New York's defense has allowed at least 70 rushing yards to No. 1 RBs this season.

New York's pass defense hasn't been much better, ranking bottom-five in expected points contributed.

Fully anticipate Seattle's offense to continue cooking under Chef Geno Smith against a defense that cannot get out of it's way.

On the year, Seattle's red-zone offense ranks 11th (62%) - a big improvement from their 2022 struggles in that area of the field.

But I don't think that the Seahawks will be the only team to score in this game. I think by far Seattle is the easiest defense New York has played this season. The Seahawks are allowing 100% red-zone efficiency to their opponents while ranking in 29th yards per play (only the Bears/Chargers/Broncos are worse).

29th in expected points versus the pass and second-most passing yards allowed per game. The Seattle rush defense is much improved - 2.9 yards per carry allowed, 6th fewest rushing yards allowed per game - allowing just 2.8 yards per carry to opposing RBs. An average of 24.3 carries faced for just 66 yards.

Two bad defenses have me shooting for the over while taking Seattle as 1-point road favorites in prime time, where Daniel Jones has never been profitable to back. Per the Action Network, Jones is 1-12 SU and 5-8 ATS at night.

On the player props side, we are going back to the Darren Waller overs. He let us down last week, but the process was there for him to have a big game.

Waller remained Daniel Jones' favorite target - 22% Target share, 7 targets - and his usage was elite. 80% route participation and an 82% snap share. But his efficiency was horrible. A few drops and back throws from Danny Dimes resulted in just three catches for 20 yards.

The Giants passing game has faced two of the league's best defenses in their three games, which has definitely played a role in two lackluster performances. With Seattle coming up, we will see Waller's fantasy production improve. He's clearly the No. 1 target in his offense (21% Target share, 20 targets) which cannot be said for a lot of tight ends. And Seattle has allowed two of the last three tight ends they have faced to surpass 49 receiving yards. No. 1 opposing receivers have gone over 100 yards versus Seattle for three straight weeks.

My Picks:

My Props:

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