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NFL Betting Primer: Top Picks & Player Prop Bets for Every Game (Week 5)

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Introducing the Week 5 edition of the NFL Betting primer, proudly brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m thrilled to be your guide as we delve into each game on the NFL slate. Here, you’ll find expert insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and enticing player props that could pave the way for impressive single-game parlays. Note that early in the week the props can be limited to just Underdog and Prizepicks, until normal sportsbooks release their player props closer to Sunday.

Before we dive into Week 5, let’s take a moment to reflect on the performance in Week 4 and overall.

Below is the official record on the recommended picks from Week 4 (not including Thursday night football where we went 0-4). Not a great week from a sides and player props perspective. But four weeks into NFL betting, it seems like I’ve got a niche when it comes to ending on the profitable side of betting totals.

Week 4

  • Spread: 5-9
  • Totals: 11-6
  • Player Props: 9-21
  • ML: 1-0

Overall: 26-36

2023 season

  • Spread: 19-32
  • Totals: 29-25
  • Player Props: 53-59
  • ML: 2-2

Overall: 102-116

Whether you’re a seasoned betting aficionado or just beginning your journey into the captivating world of NFL wagering – like myself, now that my state has embraced sports betting – this primer is your go-to source for valuable perspectives and well-informed picks for the upcoming NFL week.

Prepare to approach the NFL season with a sharp betting focus as we break down the Week 5 matchups and unveil our favorite bets and top picks. So, without further ado, here are my top selections for all remaining 15 Week 5 games. Get ready to elevate your NFL betting game!

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NFL Betting Primer: Week 5

Buffalo Bills (BUF -5.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

We are back in London with the Jaguars playing their second consecutive game across the pond – the first team to ever do so. They took care of the Falcons’ inept offense in Week 4, but one could argue they still left a lot to be desired from an offensive perspective. After going up 17-0 in the first half, they only scored two field goals for the rest of the game. The Jaguars scored one offensive TD on a broken deep pass play to Calvin Ridley. Their other TD was a pick-six. The Jacksonville offense has been mediocre at best since their Week 1 game versus the Colts. Overall, they rank 20th in points per game and 17th in yards per play. The red zone offense has been bad (26th), as has been their third down conversion rate (29th).

Getting starting left tackle Cam Robinson should be a major boost for the offense, and Doug Pederson spoke about how big his impact will be for the running game. That’s where the Jaguars should be able to expose a Bills defense that ranks last in yards per carry allowed at a whopping 6.3 clip.

This is hardly the spot where we should expect the Jaguars to have a massive passing day. The Bills are No.1 in the fewest fantasy points allowed to QBs this season. Tua Tagovailoa was the first QB they faced this season to throw for more than 200 passing yards. The Bills rank 4th in total expected points added on defense behind just Baltimore, Dallas, and Cleveland.

As for the Jaguars’ defense, they played a massive role in last week’s win. They generated pressure on Desmond Ridder, and that created opportunities for turnovers. They HAVE to get to Josh Allen to have any chance of slowing down the Bills. Allen has been the least pressured QB over the last three weeks when Buffalo has trounced their opponents by a grand total of 123 to 33. I like the Jags’ chances to do so, considering they boast the best pressure rate of any defense the Bills have faced this season.

Jacksonville should also limit the Bills’ ground game. Top-10 in fewest rushing yards per game and 8th in expected points added in run defense.

With a bloated total of 49 points, I think that the under is my primary play here. I think both defenses have the requisite personnel to keep this game from becoming a full-blown shootout. The Bills are 2-0 toward the under on the road this season, with the Jaguars 2-1 (including last week) toward the under at home.

From a sides perspective – again, tail at your own risk, as I alluded to at the top – I don’t have a strong lean. Likely would side with Jags +5.5.

But given my track record…stick with the under.

I would much rather attack the offenses through player props on the Jaguars’ side of the ball. Travis Etienne Jr. got fed out of the gates in the second half of Week 4’s game versus the Houston Texans, totaling 32 yards on three carries. With Pederson taking over play calling, I expected ETN to get fed in Week 5. He did just that with 20 carries but amassed just 55 yards.

Still, bet the over at 63.5 rushing yards in Week 5. The Bills rank dead last in yards per carry this season. Etienne’s explosiveness should be on full display.

Bet the under on Christian Kirk. The Bills have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to slot WRs this season. Starting slot cornerback Taron Johnson ranks third in coverage snaps per target (12.1), with teams shying away from him in tight coverage. With Zay Jones’ potential to make a return, it could put Kirk in a tough spot to keep up his recent pace of production and targets. Conversely, I’d be looking at buying the dip on Calvin Ridley’s receiving yardage set at 63.5.

Evan Engram has gone over 48 receiving yards in all four of his games this season. So I like his over, but my favorite tight end to target is rookie Dalton Kincaid.

Bet the over. Because the Jaguars cannot stop tight ends in the slot, allowing the most fantasy points to the TEs aligned inside this season. Kincaid has run more than half of his routes from the slot this season. Last week, he finished second with five targets but caught just four for 27 yards (20% Target share). His route participation was boosted substantially (79%).

Expect him to fly over his 2.5 receptions prop, which he has done in all but one game this season.

Also love the under on Gabe Davis at plus-money odds. Just three targets (12%) last week. Just a 14% Target share overall with three TD grabs in as many weeks. Only one game with 4-plus targets. Darious Williams is PFF’s highest-graded CB this season. Tyson Campbell is also a solid perimeter CB for the Jaguars.

My Picks:

My Props:

Indianapolis Colts (IND -1) vs. Tennessee Titans

The Colts are 1-point home favorites versus a Titans unit coming off a convincing Week 4 victory over the Bengals. Indy came up just short of victory last as favorites, losing in OT despite a late rally from rookie QB Anthony Richardson.

In terms of matchups, I don’t love the spot for the Titans offense. Their OL is bad, and that has created issues for this team on the road, where they are 0-2 this season versus 2-0 at home and scoring 9 points per game versus 27 points per game. Ryan Tannehill is averaging nearly 10 yards per pass attempt at home while averaging close to five yards per attempt on the road.

The Titans offense is not good – 23rd on 3rd downs, 28th in red zone – and Colts’ strengths on defense match up well against Tennessee’s ability to run the football. And the Titans will continue to smash Henry into a brick wall whether it works or not. Per Arjun Menon on Twitter/X, the Colts boast the second-lowest defensive pass rate over expectation versus the run this season.

Meanwhile, I think that Richardson and the Colts offense can take advantage of a leaky Titans secondary, as they did last week versus the Rams. Tennessee ranks 5th-worst in adjusted net yards allowed per pass attempt and completion percentage faced.

Meanwhile, Richardson is coming off a 200-yard passing game where he completed just 11 passes on 25 attempts (a career-high 8 yards per attempt).

We saw Shane Steichen decimate this Titans secondary last year with Philly to the tune of nearly 400 passing yards. Don’t think we see that type of exact output from the Colts offense, but make no mistake the Colts will know exactly how to effectively attack this defense.

Taking the Colts to get the win.

As for the total, I tend to lean toward the under. Tannehill is 10-6 toward the under as the team’s starter dating back to last season. The Colts have been an over machine at 3-0 with Richardson as the team’s starter, but those all came in games with opponents who had above-average offenses, in my estimation.

Tennessee isn’t that kind of powerhouse to hold up their end offensively, especially on the road. They scored fewer than 20 points on the road in seven of their last nine road games. With Tannehill as the starter, it’s been four of the last five under 20 points.

I like the game total under overall or would just back Indy’s offense to go over their 21.5-point team total. The Colts have gone over their implied team total in every game this season.

On the player props side, I am doubling down on the Colts passing attack.  Anthony Richardson’s passing prop is egregiously low, set at 204.5 passing yards. Again, he came just short of this number on 11 completions last week. His projection has him smashing this number to another orbit at 239 passing yards versus the pass funnel Titans.

Pair it with the over on Michael Pittman Jr.’s receiving line set at 56.5 receiving yards. Pittman has hit 56-plus yards in all his games besides last week, and I expect him to be peppered with targets as the No. 1 primary target option.

MPJ boasts a 28% target share through four games. His one catch last week after posting games with 8, 8, and 9 receptions stands out as a complete outlier. Also, t-shirt narrative.

I think the Derrick Henry rushing prop over 76.5 yards is probably how I would round out the 3-pick parlay on Prizepicks. Although I think the Colts run defense is underrated, that doesn’t mean Henry won’t get his if he is seeing 25-plus carries versus a defense that has faced nearly 34 carries per game this season. Don’t love it in a vacuum, but it makes sense as a correlated play.

The same for DeAndre Hopkins OVER 54.5 receiving yards. Likely no Treylon Burks for another week, and Hopkins is not listed on the injury report at all. Colts are allowing the 7th-most receiving yards to WRs this season and have allowed 6 different WRs to surpass 55 yards against them. With a 28% target share to boot, hard to see Hopkins missing this number with double-digit targets coming his way.

My Picks:

My Props:

Atlanta Falcons (ATL -1.5) vs. Houston Texans

I am absolutely fascinated with this game from a handicapping perspective. Because I think it’s so easy to look at this game and the two starting QBs and just bet the Houston Texans. C.J. Stroud > Desmond Ridder.

An easy game, right? Well, not so fast.

First off, the Ridder hate is probably being overblown. No doubt he was bad in the first half of the London game versus the Jaguars. But give him credit for improving dramatically in the second half. Drove the team down for a TD score right after the half and was one foot in-bounds away from a one-score ball game with six minutes remaining in the fourth quarter – in a game that should have never been close.

Also, Ridder plays so much better at home. That’s been evident this year, with the Dirty Birds 2-0 averaging 24.5 points per game in Atlanta versus their 0-2 record on the road, where they have averaged 6.5 points per game. Ridder has never lost a college or professional game at home.

If Ridder isn’t pressured, he can get the Falcons offense moving. Houston’s pass rush isn’t as good as Jacksonville’s or Detroit’s, hence my contrarian optimism for this offense in Week 5.

And remember, this is a chess match between Arthur Smith and DeMeco Ryans, where Smith had the edge last season when Atlanta BEAT the San Francisco 49ers defense at home 28-14. Marcus Mariota completed all but one pass with three total TDs.

And you can’t ever count out Atlanta’s offense with Bijan Robinson operating as the engine. Houston is still just an average to below-average run defense, so I expect Atlanta’s dynamic run game to be effective. The defense with the most missed tackles this season? Houston.

Atlanta’s offense should be efficient enough to win the game, and I think their defense can make a play or two to get the edge over Houston’s offense. First off, I think it’s another rough outing for Dameon Pierce. The Falcons defense is not the same rollover unit it has been for some many years. They rank first in expected points added on run defense. Atlanta gives up the 3rd fewest fantasy points to the RB position.

Atlanta has also allowed the second-fewest yards after catch; they rank fourth in pressure rate and third in quarterback knockdowns. And unlike the Texans’ last two opponents, Atlanta actually has a secondary that can complement its pass rush up front, fifth in yards per attempt allowed and in fewest passing yards allowed per game.  A.J. Terrell is playing like a shut-down cornerback. Jeff Okudah has been playing up to his 1st-round draft capital the last two weeks. Safety Jessie Bates has been earning his contract as PFF’s highest-graded safety.

Stroud is good, but eventually, he will experience some regression, with nearly half of his passing yardage coming after the catch. Nico Collins has been a big part of that, as he leads the NFL in yards after the catch. Atlanta ranks second in fewest yards allowed after the catch this season. Their biggest weakness is their slot CB, Dee Alford, which could lead to a highly involved day for veteran Robert Woods.

I think we could easily see the lines move heavily in favor of the Houston Texans before kickoff, just based on the vibes of each team, so there might be some value to waiting before backing Atlanta.

The total has been bet down from 45 to 41, so it’s probably hands-off based on the current number. But I agree with the under here, considering we have two teams that rank first and second, respectively, in neutral rushing rate.

The player props are correlated with the under and Falcons defense giving the Texans offense some concerns. The Texans’ defense has also been very stingy themselves versus WRs, allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. The third-fewest points to WRs aligned out wide, whereas they have been more suspect in the slot. Considering Drake London is almost strictly an outside CB, he gets the shaft. He’s gone under 42.5 yards in three of four games this season. And he has only done it twice since Week 3 of last season when playing alongside Kyle Pitts in the lineup.

My Picks:

My Props:

 Detroit Lions (DET -9) vs. Carolina Panthers

We head back to the Coors Field of the NFL, where the Lions will host the Carolina Panthers at Ford Field. The Lions are nearly double-digit home favorites – for the first time in I can’t imagine how long – with their sights set on a 4-1 start. Backing the Lions has been extremely profitable since the middle of last season, as they are 20-7 (74%) vs. the spread in games with 54 points or fewer scored since current offensive coordinator Ben Johnson took on a larger role in calling the offense.

The current total in this game is being suppressed to 45 points due to the Panthers’ inability to put forth any worthwhile offensive production. Three games with Bryce Young as the starter, and they have yet to eclipse 17 points scored. No more than 281 yards in any game.

And although the Lions have traditionally been “the” get-right spot for offenses to get going, the Lions’ overhauled defense has rewritten the narrative. Against the run? They rank first in the fewest rushing yards per game. Don’t hold your breath expecting any type of ground attack.

And although they haven’t been as solid against the pass – 15th in passing yards allowed per game – its’ inflated by their OT loss to the Seattle Seahawks. That game that featured a pick-six thrown by Jared Goff is essentially the one blemish on a Lions team that has been near flawless on both sides of the ball. Their pass rush is one of the best units in the league, ranking 7th in pressure rate and second in total pressures.

Meanwhile, Carolina can’t generate anything on offense with a sheer lack of playmakers. And their defense has been destroyed by the run, allowing the third-most rushing yards per game to opposing RBs.

The Lions blew the doors of the Packers on Thursday night with a strong run game led by David Montgomery, and I’d expect more of the same in Week 5. This defense invites the run so heavily that even the super pass-heavy Vikings decided to run on them in Week 4.

And when they do drop back to pass, Jared Goff should shred and be as efficient as he tends to be when playing at home with time in the pocket. The Lions are on the cusp of being elite, and they take care of business with a double-digit home win on Sunday. They have had extra time to prepare for this matchup, and

And although I love my Ford Field overs – this Panthers offense has shown me zero justification that they can push for points against an underrated Lions defense.

As for props, I am just going to keep it simple. David Montgomery OVER 69.5 rushing yards. He has rushed for 67 yards in all three of his games played this season, with his lowest output coming in a game that he left early. Unless he gets hurt, don’t see how he doesn’t fly over this number.

My Picks:

My Props:

Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT 4.0) vs. Baltimore Ravens

The Steelers are the walking wounded. Starting QB Kenny Pickett is dealing with a bone bruise injury that could keep him out of Sunday’s game, even though he expects to play. Considering the Steelers have a Week 6 bye week, we might get Mitchell Trubisky if Pickett suffers any type of re-injury in the game. Hide your children.

Either way, this offense is going to struggle as it basically has done during the entire Matt Canada era. They will also be without starting tight end Pat Freiermuth and starting left tackle Dan Moore. Starting guard James Daniels is also dealing with an injury.

Baltimore’s defense is far from elite, but they don’t let teams score on them in the red zone. Third best in red zone defense this season. They take care of business against bad offenses and incompetent play callers, which is exactly what the Steelers are bringing to the table.

Baltimore also beat the Steelers last season in Pittsburgh by a field goal, starting Tyler Huntley. Trubisky played for the Steelers.

Huntley actually started both games versus the Steelers, and a field goal decided each game. However, the Ravens totaled more net yards in both games. And this time around, they have Lamar Jackson starting.

I understand the credence of the 4-point line respecting Mike Tomlin and the Steelers at home, but the Ravens are not the team that will overlook a division rival despite all their obvious flaws. The only personnel grouping the Steelers have in their favor is their pass rush, which can be mitigated by a sound running game. The Raiders and Texans couldn’t run the ball at all till they faced the Steelers in back-to-back weeks. The defense ranks second in rushing yards allowed per game to RBs. Every starting RB they have faced has gotten at least 60 rushing yards.

All aboard the Gus Bus!

Hammer the over 43.5 rushing yards. Hit for three straight games, and he has asserted himself as the team’s lead back. In Week 4, Edwards led the backfield with 15 carries for 48 yards on a 69% snap share. Justice Hill went 3 for 33 (12% snap share), and Melvin Gordon went 3 for 21 (19% snap share). Gus Bus also earned 3 targets with a shockingly high route participation (65%). All aboard the Gus Bus.

When the pass rush doesn’t hit home, their secondary has been shredded by every QB they have faced. Pittsburgh has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to the WR position. At least one opposing WR has gone for 90-plus yards against them every game this year.

Let’s not overthink this one. Ravens -4.

Take all the Zay Flowers overs you can. He was quiet in a bad matchup – 3 for 56 on 4 targets – last week and STILL went over. Played 98% of the snaps. 100% route participation. Saw nearly half the team’s air yards (47%) and a solid 22% Target share with the Ravens not forced to push the game script against a rookie QB. Bet the over. 30% Target share through the first month of the season. Odell Beckham Jr. and Rashod Bateman aren’t walking through the doors anytime soon.

My Picks:

My Props:

New England Patriots (NE +1) vs. New Orleans Saints

Nothing frustrates me more than parsing through two dysfunctional teams set to face off against each other after horrible performances. Last week, it was Broncos-Bears. This week, it’s Saints against my Patriots. Woof.

First off, take the under. It’s still at a decent number, settling at 40 points, down from 42 points at the open. The Patriots are 4-0 toward the under this season. The Saints are 4-0 toward the under this season.

Sides. The books are throwing their hands up because you can get both teams at +1, depending on where you shop. It’s essentially a pick ‘em. And I ultimately side with the Patriots. They are playing at home and have been better overall through four games than the Saints. Obviously, the recent bias of the Cowboys game has suppressed any excitement around the Patriots, but don’t forget they played well at home versus the Dolphins/Eagles. The Patriots entered the season with the league’s toughest schedule. They are 1-3. The Saints entered the season with the league’s easiest schedule. They are 2-2.

The Patriots tend to get smoked when they play top-tier QBs, but they absolutely ruin the days for bad QBs. And despite the contract Derek Carr signed this offseason, he has been straight-up bad through four games. He is 28th in PFF passing grade to Mac Jones’ 29th ranking, 27th in yards per attempt to Jones’ 27th-ranked yards per attempt. Passing grade from a clean pocket? 32nd out of 35 qualifying QBs. Woof.

So, despite the injuries to Matt Judon and Christian Gonzalez, Carr is going to find a way to struggle in this game as he has done all year. They rank 32nd in red zone scoring rate.

As for the Patriots, their OL has been a big issue for their offense. Both in the run game and pass game. Hopefully, they get Cole Strange back in the starting lineup.

Luckily, the Saints have not been able to generate much pressure. They rank 22nd in pressure rate. It’s by far the lightest pass rush they have faced this season. They are a tough team to run on, so it’s likely to be tough sledding for the Patriots RBs.

But the Pats passing game should bounce back if Jones gets time in the pocket. Think they can do it enough to gut out a home win (or at least a one-point loss).

As props, take the under on JuJu Smith-Schuster. His routes have dropped in four straight games. He played played fewer than 50% of the snaps in Week 4. He has finished under his projected receiving yards total in every single game this season.

Smith-Schuster also has generated the league’s 6th-worst passer rating when targeted this season.  Great signing, Bill!

My Picks:

My Props:

Miami Dolphins (MIA -10.5) vs. New York Giants

Not only did the Giants get destroyed (again) on Monday Night Football, but their “reward” is getting ready for a pissed-off Miami Dolphins team coming off a huge loss to the Bills in Week 4. At home. Where Miami has averaged 70 points per game.

It’s one of the worst matchups a team could ask for, coming off a short week. Especially considering how bad the Giants’ defense already is, not just the fact that they will be tasked with trying to limit an offensive assault like Miami. New York blitzes nearly 50% of the time, and that spells disaster for their defense.

Against the blitz this season, Tua Tagovailoa ranks first in PFF grade and fourth in passer rating. We saw the 49ers offense put up 30 on the Giants two weeks ago, and you can bet Mike McDaniel will use wrinkles of that game in his design to take on Big Blue in Week 5.

Not to mention, the Giants also can’t stop the run.

As for the Big Blue offense – which has played a grand total of two quarters through four games this season – it’s hard to have any confidence they will turn things around. 0-4 versus the spread. Woof.

Getting back tackle Andrew Thomas and running back Saquon Barkley is integral to this unit improving in any capacity because they should be able to take advantage of a bad Dolphins defense – although they also should have done so to Seattle on Monday night. Big Miss. Again, I was contributing the Giants’ offensive woes to facing Dallas and SF – two elite units. But the egg they laid versus Seattle reveals this offensive is much more of an internal issue. I also gave too much credit to the Giants passing game being able to take advantage of a bad Seahawks pass defense (they did not).

If they can get those two key pieces back on offense, I’ll dip my toes into the over at 49.5. Miami is 3-1 toward the over this season.

New York is 1-3 toward the under, with their one over coming in the game where they scored points on offense. Miami’s red-zone defense ranks 31st, and they can be run on – which fits more into the strengths of New York’s offense.

If New York can just show up on offense in any capacity, we should see a high-scoring contest that gets to 50 points. However, at the time of this writing, the injury outlook does not look favorable for Big Blue. Thomas is leaning toward no, and two more Giants OL pieces got hurt Monday night. Woof. Take the Dolphins, and don’t look back.

New York has trailed by AT LEAST 10-plus points in all four games this season.

On the props side, going OVER on Jaylen Waddle, who is 15th in yards per route run this season, averaging 70 receiving yards per game. The 59.5 is too low. The Giants rank second in missed tackles on defense.

Therefore, you also need to go OVER on De’Von Achane’s comically low 50.5 rushing yards prop. He’s gone over 100 in his last two games. Achane also finished with a 60% snap share to Raheem Mostert’s 43%. Mostert also lost a fumble. It’s the rookie’s job after he also led the backfield in routes run (69%). Look for him to keep running against a defense that ranks second in missed tackles and fourth in rushing yards allowed to RBs at nearly 116 yards per game. Every starting RB they have faced has rushed for at least 70 yards.

My Picks:

My Props:

Los Angeles Rams (LAR 4.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles

The undefeated Eagles head to the West Coast to take on the L.A. Rams in what should be an offensive shootout. The Eagles defense has regressed majorly since last season, ranking 28th in red zone defense and 25th on third downs. Their pass rush and defensive line remain top-tier, but they can be picked apart in the secondary if the pressure doesn’t hit home.

The Rams’ defense has been better on third downs but has struggled equally defending in the red zone (26th).

There should be points galore in the dome matchup. Two bottom red-zone defenses.

But ultimately, the Eagles pass rush will cause enough issues for Matthew Stafford – who has already faced the sixth-most pressures this season and is dealing with a hip injury – to get them a road victory.

The Eagles’ offense will do plenty enough damage versus a defense that has only really been tested by one other elite offensive unit in the 49ers. They allowed 30 points and 365 yards on defense.

And last week, despite being up 23-0, the Rams allowed the Colts and Anthony Richardson to come charging back and force overtime. They are also the only team that the lowly Bengals have been able to beat this season. They likely would have lost in Week 1 had it not been for Seattle losing both its two starting offensive tackles.

On the player props, I love the matchup for Tyler Higbee versus the Eagles defense (thumb injury). The Eagles weakness is over the middle of their secondary. As a result, they have allowed the second-most fantasy points to TEs this season.

Also really like the matchup for TuTu Atwell in the slot, given the weaknesses of the interior of the Philadelphia defense. Against slot WRs, they have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game and ninth in total receiving yards per game to WRs (186).

On the Eagles side, it’s probably another good setup for D’Andre Swift. The Rams rank third-to-last on defense in pass rate faced versus expectation, while the Eagles rank 31st in pass rate over expectation. Swift’s rushing yards have dropped for three straight games, but one would presume a bounce-back effort versus the Rams defense that has allowed at least 64 rushing yards to a running back in every single game this season.

Dallas Goedert over 33.5 receiving yards (-115 BetMGM) or his receptions prop is also a solid bet to add into a same-game parlay. Goedert’s gotten the squeaky wheel narrative after catching just two balls in Week 4. After he posted zero catches in Week 1, he saw 7-plus target in two straight games.

My Picks:

My Props:

Arizona Cardinals (ARI 3) vs. Cincinnati Bengals

While others zig, we zag. The overwhelming narrative around the Bengals is doomsday. Joe Burrow’s calf will never be healthy, and this team is going to crumble. Meanwhile, the Arizona Cardinals – after nobody wanted to bet on them – are now receiving nearly 50% of the bets against the Bengals as 3-point home underdogs. They are the fun go-lucky story of the year led by Joshua Dobbs, who is 3-1 versus the spread this season as the starter. His one loss versus the spread came last week when they lost by 19 points to the 49ers.

And the public just seems to be completely ignoring the fact that Burrow’s been very vocal about his play not being influenced by the lingering calf injury. Says he’s healthy etc. Maybe he’s lying. But if everybody thinks he’s lying then what advantage does that do for us bettors?

After all, if he really wasn’t healthy, why are the Bengals favorites at all? And why do they have the eighth-highest implied team total on the slate at 24.25 points? The highest since before the Rams game?

After all, they are 31st in points per game on offense. Arizona is 18th in points per game.

Therefore, I am approaching this game with a different lens that this Bengals offense is primed to get back. If Burrow is truly healthy (or healthier) then this offense will improve. Nowhere to go but up. Buy the value dip.

Especially against Arizona, which is 29th in yards per attempt, 30th in third down conversion rate allowed, and 27th in pressure rate generated.

It’s a clear get-right spot for the offense that nobody wants to admit. Again, another week removed from the re-injured calf injury, I think the Bengals’ passing game starts to get on a roll. After all, it cannot get any worse.

As for the Bengals defense, that’s an entirely different issue. They haven’t played great. And current Cardinals offensive coordinator Drew Petzing was formerly staffed by the Browns as the QB coach. Last year versus the Bengals defense, the Browns averaged nearly 400 yards of offense and 27.5 points per game against the Bengals.

Considering Cincy’s overall defensive struggles – I think this game can be a sneaky shootout out in the desert dome. Arizona’s offensive has been considerably better at home – 28 points per game – and their last three games have hit the over.

As for props, I am going back to Joe Mixon. Except this time, I am taking over his rushing prop. He shoved it in my face last week by going over his prop against an elite Titans-run defense.

He draws a much easier matchup versus Arizona who are allowing over 100 rushing yards per game to opposing RBs. Mixon’s yardage has increased in four straight games on an average of 15 carries per game.

On Arizona’s offense, Marquise Brown’s receiving yards prop is way too low. He has hit the over for three straight games. He is averaging 8 targets and 60 receiving yards per game with a 27% target share and 44% air yards share (7th among all players). Also really like the over on rookie Michael Wilson at 37.5 receiving yards. Gone over in three straight games

The Bengals are facing the highest aDOT this season (10.3), suggesting that chunk plays are coming. But not for the RBs as they have allowed the fourth-fewest total YAC.

As for unders, I like the prop below on James Conner’s receiving yards prop. He has gone under in three of four games played as Emari Demercado has taken over the RB receiving role out of the backfield. Conner saw his snaps dip slightly in a negative game script (62%) as Demercado was used more in the receiving game. He saw more targets and ran more routes with Keontay Ingram out of the lineup. Ingram is not likely to play in Week 5, confirming Demercado as the pass-catching RB for Arizona moving forward. Arizona hardly throws to RBs anyway, ranking 29th in total RB targets this season.

My Picks:

My Props:

 Denver Broncos (DEN -2) vs. New York Jets

Denver’s historically bad defense versus Zach Wilson. This should be fun to watch. Especially because we also have a coaching narrative with Nathaniel Hackett facing his old team that fired him last year. There’s bad blood between these two teams and I am sure the Jets are using Sean Payton’s offseason quotes as bulletin board material.

I’ve preached during the preseason about how overrated the Payton acquisition has been for the Broncos, and it’s shown up in betting results. 0-4 versus the spread. They should have lost straight up last week versus the Bears. They got bailed out. That won’t happen on Sunday after the Jets gave the Super Bowl reigning champions all they could handle on Sunday night. Unlike the Broncos. Who should have lost…

Wilson owns a 6-6 record straight up and lost just two games by more than 8 points since last year. Contrary to the belief, he plays in close games. Russell Wilson? A combined 11-21 in his last 32 games.

Continue to fade the overrated Broncos. This Jets defense – is by far the best unit they have faced this season.

Jets +2 or even Jets ML.

As for the total, these teams are a combined 5-3 toward the over this season. Denver has hit the over in its last three as they continue to trot out a historically awful defense.

If the Jets could score 20 points on a Chiefs defense that ranks fifth in fewest points allowed this season – and one that blanked the Chicago Bears to 10 points (who just scored 28 points last week versus Denver) I think we get enough offensive production from the Jets.

Denver’s offense has been very productive, but I fear it is more related to the opponents they have faced. Still, the fact that the Jets have allowed as many offensive TD per game as the 49ers (1.5, sixth overall) has me convinced this unit can limit Denver’s offense.

Both teams also want and should be able to run the ball effectively, which further suggests not chasing the steam toward the over. Both Wilsons could just crumble based on their larger sample sizes. Effective run games could eat up clock and lead to fewer possessions for each team.

I’ll play it safe with the under.

As for the props, I am looking at the Denver WRs. Courtland Sutton under 47.5 receiving yards seems like a total layup. The Jets rank fifth in the fewest fantasy points allowed to WRs this season with their two top perimeter CBs. Sutton’s only gone over this number twice in four games, and failed to do last week versus the Jets. Actually really like the under 3.5 receptions at +120 (DraftKings). The Jets have allowed just 3 WRs to surpass four receptions this season – Stefon Diggs, CeeDee Lamb and Kendrick Bourne.

Conversely, Jerry Jeudy has gone over 48.5 receiving yards in his last two games, as he returns from his hamstring injury. Given he gets to work more from the slot, he will get the more favorable matchup versus Jets slot CB, Michael Carter. Jeudy also went off when he played the Jets last season, amassing seven catches for 96 yards on 11 targets.

My Picks:

My Props:

Minnesota Vikings (MIN +4.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs

The Vikings are hosting the Kansas City Chiefs, fresh off their first victory of the season over a winless Carolina Panthers team. I must imagine the spread is being impacted by KC’s poor outing versus the Jets – although they were just a longer Patrick Mahomes slide away from covering on Sunday night.

Now the Vikings are probably better than their 1-3 record suggests, especially because of how great they have been offensively. At least that’s what you’d think. They only rank 16th in points per game (22.5). But they also rank third in yards per play. KC ranks fifth in yards per play and 9th in points per game.

Both offenses can move the ball, but KC is the only unit that could potentially slow down their opposition. They haven’t allowed more than 21 points to any offense they have faced. Their red zone defense ranks ninth.

Meanwhile, the Vikings are coming off their worst offensive output of the year, scoring 21 points against a hapless Panthers defense. It was the first time they totaled fewer than 300 yards on offense.

The Chiefs always score points – especially when they play on the road. That has me feel comfortable backing them as 4-point road favorites.

But from a totals perspective, I think I am leaning toward the under with the bloated total. Again, we saw Vikings-Chargers just a few weeks ago go under a 55-point total. Minnesota is 3-1 toward the under this year (2-0 at home) while KC is also 3-1 toward the under (2-0 on the road).

As for props, you must slam the under on Travis Kelce. Since returning from his knee injury he hasn’t been close to reaching 78.5 receiving yards. He’s gone under the number in three straight games, and the Vikings have allowed the fewest receiving yards to tight ends this season (20.5). Kelce’s target share is just 23% this season – a slight dip from his 25% share last season.

My Picks:

My Props:

 San Francisco 49ers (SF -3.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys

We’ve got a GREAT matchup played for Sunday Night Football. The 49ers take on Dallas at home, who have yet to be in a “normal” game this season.  They blew out the Giants, Jets and Patriots inferior offenses while losing at home in disastrous fashion versus the Arizona Cardinals. There’s little doubt in my mind that both of these teams should be 4-0. But The 49ers have played more legitimate competition and shown up in every contest. 30-plus points scored in all four games including a 3-1 versus the spread. They should be 4-0 had it not been for a pointless Rams FG back in Week 2.

Meanwhile, Dallas’ defense has been the reason they have dominated because their offense continues to sputter out in the red zone, 30th in red zone efficiency behind only New Orleans and Houston. As good as Dallas can be moving between the 20s and lack of consistent red zone efficiency will be on full display in this prime-time matchup. And who is to blame? Mike McCarthy. Last year under Kellen Moore the Cowboys ranked No. 1 in red zone efficiency. McCarthy’s job as the playcaller has limited the ceiling of Dallas’ offense. They rank third in rushing attempts and 5th highest neutral rushing rate. Last in expected pass rate and 5th-lowest pass rate over expectation.

Dallas wants to run the football and play defense. It’s a winning formula to beat inferior teams by field goals, not by touchdowns.

That will not be the case with the 49ers, who possess an offense built to mitigate Dallas’ elite pass rush and expose their run defense.

Simply put, Dallas is getting too much credit for beating bad teams. Think they face a harsh reality on the road this week.

As for the total, I like buying the dip on the total. It’s been bet down to 45 after opening at 47. Dallas is 3-1 toward the under this year, with SF at 2-2. But in the games where the over has cashed, it’s because the opposing team offered a semblance of life on offense. We know the 49ers can score, so not worried about them holding up their 24.5 implied team total (+102 DK Sportsbook). Dallas’ offense is far from perfect, but they still are the No. 1 offense on third downs and are averaging 24-plus points strictly on offense with mostly field goals.

No reason that SF can’t continue to score at playing at home considering they have won by 13-plus points at home in six of their last seven home games (excluding the Divisional Playoff Game versus Dallas). Only twice at home last year (vs. LAC/KC) did the 49ers not win by at least 13 points during the regular season (78%).

But we don’t need a double-digit win for them to cover this spread or score 24.5 points. And I’d be very surprised if Kyle Shanahan didn’t have a plan to ensure his team scores more than 19 points at home – the only time a Brock Purdy-led offense has scored fewer than 30 points playing in SF.

On props side, I am shooting for more overs. Tony Pollard ranks second in the NFL in carries and fifth in rushing yards. He is seeing too much volume in a run-heavy offense to have his number be listed so low. It was listed at 70.5 rushing yards last week. Consider me unafraid of the 49ers run defense that allowed 4.7 yards per carry to James Conner last week.

Brandon Aiyuk is averaging 106.7 receiving yards per game (6th). The only game he failed to hit 55 this season he got injured in. This number is way too low. His projection is 64.5 receiving yards. Easy over.

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My Props:

Las Vegas Raiders (LV +1) vs. Green Bay Packers

The Packers have had a long layoff since getting curb-stomped two Thursdays ago by the Detroit Lions, as their protection could not hold up versus a fierce Lions pass rush. As a result, they fell behind big for a second straight week at home and were unable to climb back into the game in the second half.

However, I don’t envision as many pass protection issues on Monday night versus the Las Vegas Raiders, who rank third to last in pressure rate. It’s Maxx Crosby and nobody else. With extra time to prepare, I expect Matt LaFleur to have answers to protecting Jordan Love – who has been the fourth-least pressured QB this season.

The Raider’s pass defense is also just bad overall, ranking 29th in expected points added on pass defense.

Every QB they have faced has thrown for double-digit TDs aside from Justin Herbert and his broken finger last week. But Kenny Pickett was efficient for fantasy versus the Raiders. Start Love in fantasy football and back the Packers in a field goal matchup. He should have his two most explosive weapons in the passing game back and fully healthy between Christian Watson and Aaron Jones

Green Bay has the fourth-best red zone offense and 11th-best offense on third downs. The Raiders rank 23rd on third downs and 28th in red zone defense. They boast the third-highest passing TD rate faced this season, while Love ranks third in red zone pass attempts.

On the totals, I like the over, presuming Jimmy Garoppolo is back for Las Vegas. The Packers are 3-1 toward the over this season (2-0 on the road).

My Picks:

My Props:

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