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NFL Betting Primer: Top Picks & Player Prop Bets for Every Game (Week 6)

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Introducing the Week 6 edition of the NFL Betting primer, proudly brought to you by BettingPros! I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m thrilled to be your guide as we delve into each game on the NFL slate. Here, you’ll find expert insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and enticing player props that could pave the way for impressive single-game parlays. Note that early in the week the props can be limited to just Underdog and PrizePicks, until normal sportsbooks release their player props closer to Sunday.

Before we dive into Week 6, let’s take a moment to reflect on the performance in Week 5 and overall.

Below is the official record on the recommended picks from Week 5 (not including Thursday night football). A GREAT week from a sides and player props perspective. In fact, my best week to date this season – despite the Ravens blowing their four-point spread. And another week where the 1st TD prop cashes. Thank you, Dallas Goedert.

My hot streak on totals continues to ride. When in doubt, bet the total.

Five weeks into NFL betting, it seems like I’ve got a niche when it comes to ending on the profitable side of betting totals. And as a result, we are back up to the positive five weeks in.

Week 5

  • Spread: 9-3
  • Totals: 9-4
  • Player Props: 17-12
  • ML: 1-0

Overall: 36-19

2023 season

  • Spread: 28-35
  • Totals: 38-29
  • Player Props: 70-71
  • ML: 3-2

Overall: 137-135

 Whether you’re a seasoned betting aficionado or just beginning your journey into the captivating world of NFL wagering – like myself, now that my state has embraced sports betting – this primer is your go-to source for valuable perspectives and well-informed picks for the upcoming NFL week.

Prepare to approach the NFL season with a sharp betting focus as we break down the Week 6 matchups and unveil our favorite bets and top picks. So, without further ado, here are my top selections for all remaining 15 Week 6 games. Get ready to elevate your NFL betting game!

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NFL Betting Primer: Week 6

Tennessee Titans (TEN -4.0) vs. Baltimore Ravens

We handicapped the hot-cold Tennessee Titans correctly last week, citing their bad offensive line and home/road splits. They are 0-3 this season versus 2-0 at home and scoring 11.3 points per game versus 27 points per game. Ryan Tannehill is averaging nearly 10 yards per pass attempt at home while averaging close to six yards per attempt on the road.

The Titans’ offense is still not good – 23rd on 3rd downs, 29th in red zone – and the Ravens’ strengths on defense match up well against Tennessee’s ability to run the football. Baltimore ranks 4th in expected points contributed by run defense, allowing just 3.6 yards per carry. Only one RB has rushed for 60-plus yards against them, and it took 30 carries for Zack Moss to get there. They are also the only team yet to allow a rushing TD this season.

Meanwhile, I think that Lamar Jackson and the Ravens passing offense can take advantage of a leaky Titans secondary – 4th worst yards per attempt and 5th worst in completion percentage allowed – as they SHOULD have done last week versus the Steelers. No offense ran worse than Baltimore’s in Week 5.

Must expect a major bounce-back game for the Ravens after they totally blew a game that could have easily won. Blown 4th downs and points in the red zone. Multiple dropped TDs. A blocked punt resulted in a safety. Back-breaking red-zone interception.

The Ravens had the 4-point cover in the bag on the road versus the Steelers. They blew it. They won’t do that twice in a row this week in London. The Titans’ pass rush is nowhere near what Pittsburgh can offer, and playing across the pond should be more favorable than playing in your AFC North rival’s home stadium.

As for the total, I tend to lean toward the under. Tannehill is 11-6 toward the under as the team’s starter dating back to last season.

The Ravens have been an under machine at 4-1

Tennessee isn’t that kind of powerhouse to hold up their end offensively, especially on the road. They scored fewer than 20 points on the road in eight of their last 10 road games. With Tannehill as the starter, it’s been five of the last six under 20 points.

On the player props side, I am doubling down on the Ravens’ passing attack. Regression is going to work in their favor after the left so much production on the table last week.

Zay Flowers‘ 58.5 receiving yards prop is too low. He’s gone over his projected total in four of five games this season. He was Lamar Jackson’s top target in Week 5, receiving 11 passes (29% Target share). He caught 5 of them for 73 yards, demonstrating his ability to gain significant yardage on receptions. More importantly, he was used more downfield with a 16.7 average depth of target.

Ravens WR1. 29% Target share this season. And he left the production on the table.

Massive game coming versus Tennessee this weekend. Flowers and DeAndre Hopkins are the two WRs this season with the highest number of targets, receiving yards and receptions to NOT have scored a TD yet. Flowers has nine total red zone opportunities (7 targets, 2 carries) while Hopkins has 6 red zone targets.

On Tennessee’s side, I am strongly fading tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo. The Ravens are allowing the 3rd-fewest receiving yards to TEs this season. Okonkwo just got to 33 yards last week with 1:00 remaining in the fourth quarter. Before his last 8-yard gain, he was sitting on 4 catches for 25 yards. Woof. He also only ran a route on 65% of the dropbacks and played a season-low 58% snap share. Fade the Titans’ tight end in a bad matchup.

My Picks:

My Props:

 Atlanta Falcons (ATL -2.5) vs. Washington Commanders

We zigged while others zagged last week right to the bank. Everybody was ready to write off Desmond Ridder after an abysmal performance in London. But he responded in a big way at home in Week 5, throwing for a career-high 329 yards! He threw one touchdown pass and didn’t record any interceptions.

Ridder has still yet to lose a game at home in his professional and college career, so I’ll continue to back the Falcons when they are at home in the dome.

That’s been evident this year, with the Dirty Birds 3-0 averaging 23.3 points per game in Atlanta versus their 0-2 record on the road, where they have averaged 6.5 points per game.

If Ridder isn’t pressured, he can get the Falcons offense moving. Now the Commanders actually do have a better pass rush than Houston – 2nd best in the league in pressure rate (27%) – but it has not slowed down any offenses considering they have allowed 33-plus points scored in four straight games.

Atlanta’s offense should be efficient enough to win a close game, which has been the Falcons’ calling card this season. Unlike the Vikings (pour many out), the Falcons have been on the positive side of regression in one-score games. Last year, the Falcons lost 8 of their 10 one-possession games.

This year? 2-0 in one-possession games including last week’s win. Regression to the mean at its finest.

I also think their defense can make a play or two to get the edge over the Commanders’ offense.

The Falcons’ defense is not the same rollover unit it has been for some many years. They rank first in expected points added on run defense. Atlanta gives up the 3rd fewest fantasy points to the RB position. They have allowed the fewest receiving yards to RBs.

Atlanta has also allowed the second-fewest yards after catch; they rank 11th in pressure rate and second in quarterback knockdowns.

And unlike the Commanders’ last two opponents, Atlanta actually has a secondary that can complement its pass rush up front, sixth in lowest yards per attempt allowed and in 7th fewest passing yards allowed per game.

A.J. Terrell is playing like a shut-down cornerback. Jeff Okudah has been playing up to his 1st-round draft capital the last three weeks. Safety Jessie Bates has been earning his contract as PFF’s second-highest-graded safety.

The closest defense to the Falcons that Washington has played this season is the Bills. And Buffalo completely overwhelmed Washington and their sack machine QB, Sam Howell.

The Commanders’ offense has been productive under Howell – scoring at least 20 points in all their games outside the loss to Buffalo. Still, the matchup suggests this might be a “down” game for the Commanders’ offense.

And as we say play out last week, turnovers almost always dictate whether or not the Commanders cover. When they have failed ATS they have combined for 10 offensive turnovers. In the 2 games they have covered, 0 turnovers on offense.

Considering Atlanta only has generated one turnover on defense since Week 1 – despite playing great statistically across the board – I’d bet they are overdue for some positive turnover regression.

They rank dead last in sack percentage, despite consistently generating pressure on opposing QBs. Could see a massive game from them versus the sack king himself. Howell is on pace to break the all-time sack record…

Back the Falcons as 2.5-point favorites at home.

From a totals perspective, I am likely looking toward the under. When Atlanta dictates the pace of play, they run the football. Also 4-1 toward the under this season. And I’ve alluded to his being a tough spot for the Commanders’ offense against one of the better defenses they have faced.

When these teams met last season, it was a 19-13 barnburner (under) in favor of the Commanders.

For props, you want to target the middle of the Falcons defense. Their biggest weakness is their slot CB, Dee Alford, which could lead to a highly involved day for Curtis Samuel.

Also, Commanders tight end Logan Thomas is set up extremely nicely in this matchup.

LT continues to be super involved in the passing game, leading with a team-high 11 targets (23%) for 9 catches, 77 yards and 1 TD in Week 5. Ran a route on 78% of the dropbacks. Atlanta is allowing the second-most fantasy points to TEs this season.

The Falcons’ defense is also horrible versus slot WRs…so Curtis Samuel’s 3.5 receptions prop at plus money is music to my ears. 6-plus catches in back-to-back games and no fewer than 3 receptions in any game this season.

Terry McLaurin, I like the under. He’s gone over 56.5 receiving yards just one time this season. Falcons are allowing the 4th-fewest receiving yards per game to WRs this season.

I also like the Drake London over 45 receiving yards. He has 6-plus targets in four straight games and has gone over this number in five of his last 6 home games. The Commanders have allowed the second-most receiving yards to WRs this season and at least 100 yards to a single WR in their last four games.

My Picks:

My Props:

Cleveland Browns (CLE 10.0) vs. San Francisco 49ers

Deshaun Watson is not expected to play for the Browns in Week 6. He was medically cleared two weeks ago before Week 4 to play but decided not to play. Coming out after the bye week, you’d presume he would be a full participant in practice, but that has not been the case thus far. Major red flag.

He has been listed as day-to-day – which actually means week-to-week if you have been following NFL injury reports for a while. Not sure when we will see him back on the field.

Editor’s Note: Deshaun Watson has officially been ruled OUT for Week 6.

The 49ers are the best team in the league and have been beating teams by MORE than 8 points easily – regardless of where they play.

Sure, the Browns have a strong defense, are coming off a bye week and are playing at home. Hence, I understand the line as it is. But it’s still not nearly enough points to get me off the 49ers who should be 5-0 ATS this year had it not been for a pointless Rams FG back in Week 2.

As for the total, it’s probably a shy-away spot for me because the number is already so low at 36.5 due to the Browns starting PJ Walker and weather that calls for Cleveland wind and rain. Classic autumn weather in Browns nation.

SF is 3-2 toward the under this year, with the overs against teams that boasted somewhat functioning offenses. Hardly say the Browns offense has been above average despite a strong performance in Week 3 versus the Titans. And it hardly projects as a normal functioning offense if PJ Walker is the starter for the Browns.

So under on the game overall with Watson likely out. But over on the 49ers’ team total at a lowly 21.5 points. Again, the Browns feasted on the Steelers, Bengals and Titans to open the year. They gave up 28 points to the Ravens – who have been inconsistent. SF has scored 21 points in all but one of Brock Purdy‘s completed games.

Speaking of Purdy starts…George Kittle has not consistently posted in yardage with the 49ers starting QB dating back to last season. He’s gone over 40 yards in 5 of 14 games played. Twice against Dallas. If the team keeps him into block more versus a fierce Browns defensive line, he could easily fly under the prop.

As for the Browns offense without Watson… we are sniffing for more unders. Specifically in their backfield. Jerome Ford under 35.5 rushing yards. Ford ranks dead last in rushing success rate this season. Despite being the “starter” the last two games, he has totaled yardage numbers of 18 and 26. No team is allowing fewer rushing yards per game to RBs than the 49ers (43.4). Considering the negative game script, I don’t even know how many rushes Cleveland will total in this game.

I also heavily lean on betting the under on Kareem Hunt‘s receiving yards prop. Not because of the matchup – the 49ers actually allow decent RB targets – but because he is not the pass-catching RB on the roster. Over the last two games, Hunt has run a route on just 12 of 80 dropbacks (15%) with two targets. Ford has run a route on 60%. Very skeptical Hunt sniffs any worthwhile receiving usage or turns it into actual yardage. The BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet agrees with me, citing Hunt’s 3.6 receiving yards projection.

My Picks:

My Props:

Houston Texans (HOU 1.5) vs. New Orleans Saints

When I first looked at the opening lines for the Week 6 slate, the Texans at +2.5 stood out to me like a sore thumb. Playing at home after a close road loss, the Texans are primed to bounce back here versus a completely overrated Saints team. Now, New Orleans took care of business versus a hapless Patriots team, but I think that is highly overrating them in the betting market. Early bettors agreed, moving the line from +2.5 to +1.5 Houston since the lines opened.

Just bet the Texans ML.

Because C.J. Stroud is going to have more time than ever to rip the Saints secondary. Keep in mind that the Saints rank 24th in pressure rate. And the Texans OL is getting healthy at the right time. Last week with Laremy Tunsil, Tytus Howard and Shaq Mason all back, Stroud faced Week 5’s LOWEST PRESSURE RATE. This offense is just starting to heat up. And give credit to Stroud as he put his team in a position to win last week, but they came up just short of victory.

Stroud’s passer rating from a clean pocket this season? 5th best in the NFL. 3rd in yards per attempt. 7 TDs and 0 interceptions. Shreds Ville is coming. The Saints are allowing TDs through the air at the league’s second-highest rate. And I think Stroud is by far the best QB they have faced all season.

At home where the Texans and Stroud have averaged over 300 passing yards per game, I absolutely love them in this spot. We saw firsthand that Dallas’ big win over the Patriots did nothing but make them overvalued the following week. Don’t fall for the same trap as the Saints.

As for the total, I am likely leaning toward the under (although I just like the Texans ML more). The Saints are 5-0 toward the under this season. And although I like Stroud to do damage, the Texans affinity with rushing the ball (second in neutral rushing rate) creates concerns with getting a high-totaled game. As does the Saints’ inability to score in the red zone.

My Picks:

My Props:

Miami Dolphins (MIA -13.5) vs. Carolina Panthers

Hate to just copy and paste my analysis from the Dolphins’ breakdown as double-digit favorites versus the Giants…but here we are. Two TD favorites might seem like a lot…but they have won by more than that in both their home games this season. Meanwhile, the Panthers defense has shown no ability to slow down top offenses like Seattle and Detroit on the road – allowing nearly 40 points per game. They even lost to the Falcons by two TDs on the road.

Simply put, their offense for the first time finally scored 20-plus points because of a garbage time TD. That’s ultimately the fear with the big spread is with the backdoor cover as the Panthers have all incentive in the world to juice Bryce Young‘s numbers to justify taking him with the first overall pick. Same with the total. This game screams like a 4th quarter sweat with the actual W-L outcome a done deal.

Miami is 3-2 toward the over this season, with unders coming against the Giants/Patriots anemic offenses. The Panthers are closer to that offense than the ones that have actually challenged the Dolphins…hence my hesitance to just ride the over after Carolina’s offense finally posted a decent stat line. However, Carolina has been BETTER than both the Patriots and Giants offenses overall.

Miami’s defense isn’t great, but the total STILL flew under last week despite a pick-six for the Giants.

As much as I’d like to chalk up last week’s offensive “resurgence” to Carolina playing at Ford Field – the Coors Field of the NFL, the only time we have seen the Panthers offense score points is facing top offenses on the road. That script is what we have set up here in Week 6, especially with how turnover-prone Young has been (third-highest turnover-worthy play rate). That gives Miami access to quick scores.

The turnovers are why I can’t back the Panthers covering – even a spread this large – against a pass rush that ranks third in pressure rate. But I think I can back the over knowing the Miami offense could bail me out if they do 80% of the scoring. The narrative against Young being a “bust” five games in also makes me believe this offense will look to take advantage of an exploitable defense with its fair share of problems.

For props, I love going back to Jaylen Waddle‘s receiving props. Because they are trying to jam him targets. Season-high 10 targets in Week 5. A ton of red zone usage (4 red -zone targets). Also saw his average depth of target dip dramatically, in a way I view as an extension of the run game that will be without De’Von Achane for the foreseeable future.

The Panthers’ defense ranks fourth in missed tackles and 6th in the lowest depth of target faced. I think this is a breakout game week for Waddle.

As for the Panthers RBs…fade Miles Sanders if he plays.

Miles Sanders – 43rd in rushing success rate among 44 qualifying RBs. Picked up a shoulder injury. Woof. Sanders. PFF’s 57th graded RB among 58 qualifiers.

His “backup” Chuba Hubbard – 6th best in rushing success rate, Carolina has the 4th-lowest PROE. Three-down skillset. PFF’s 7th-highest graded RB.

The other Panther WR I like is Jonathan Mingo.

Mingo made 5 receptions for 48 yards, showcasing his reliability as a target (7 targets, 20% Target share). He put Terrace Marshall Jr. back on the bench in Week 5.

D.J. Chark contributed 42 yards on 3 receptions, averaging 14 yards per catch, and scored a touchdown (6 targets). 3 red-zone targets.

Both Chark and Mingo have 30% or higher air yard shares this season, with Mingo boasting the higher Target share 18% vs. 12%). Mingo is also coming off his best game to date. The first play was a pass to the rookie.

Think I prefer chasing the rookie than the boom-or-bust Chark. 7-plus targets in Young’s last two games. Chark has totaled fewer than 3.5 targets per game in 3 games with Young.

My Picks:

My Props:

Cincinnati Bengals (CIN -2.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks

After everybody was completely out of the Bengals, we were BACK IN before it was cool. Last week we backed the Bengals and Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and the calf came through.

Maybe it was Burrow’s health that fixed everything. Or maybe it was a bad defense in the form of the Arizona Cardinals giving Cincy the perfect get-right spot. Either way, Seattle’s defense shouldn’t stop this Bengals offense from continuing to surge.

The Seahawks’ defenses rank dead last in red-zone efficiency to their opponents while ranking 31st in third down conversion rate.

Seattle’s rush defense is much improved – 3.2 yards per carry allowed, 6th fewest rushing yards allowed per game – allowing just 2.8 yards per carry to opposing RBs. An average of 23 carries faced for just 59 yards. But they can’t stop allowing rushing TDs – ranked third-most allowed per game.

As for the Bengals defense, that’s an entirely different issue. They haven’t played great. 20th in points per game, 21st on third downs, 25th in yards per play.

Specifically, they have struggled against the run. 6.5 yards per carry allowed last week to Cardinals without their starting RB. 5th-most rushing yards allowed per game to RBs, 2nd-most rushing yards allowed per game.

Cincy’s run defense is the spitting image of the New York Giants run defense – that Seattle hung 120-plus rushing yards on in Week 4 – so I’d expect zero issues for Seattle to move and score with the vastly improved red-zone offense from last season.

Considering Cincy’s overall defensive struggles – I think this game can be a sneaky shootout. Seattle’s OL should be at full strength coming off a bye week.

Just keep an eye on the weather. Chance of rain and wind but it looks like it will be on the lesser extremes than some other games this week.

For props, back to Joe Mixon‘s rushing UNDERS. The Seattle rush defense is much improved – 3.2 yards per carry allowed, 6th fewest rushing yards allowed per game – allowing just 2.6 yards per carry to opposing RBs. An average of 22.8 carries faced for just 59 yards.

My Picks:

My Props:

Jacksonville Jaguars (JAC -4) vs. Indianapolis Colts

We have our first rematch of the 2023 season, with the Jaguars-Colts set to play for the second time since Week 1. That Week 1 contest was extremely profitable as we identified it as a great spot to bet the over with two defenses boasting suspect secondaries. The Jaguars secondary ranks 6th in passing yards allowed per game this season, and the Colts still have major issues in the backend. They currently rank 5th in passing yards allowed per game.

The Jaguars are coming off back-to-back victories in London, hoping to build on their momentum back on US soil. They obviously beat the Colts 31-21 in Week 1 (also covered), but the game was closer than the final score. Should have been 31-28 had rookie QB Anthony Richardson not been stuffed at the goal line at the tail end of the game.

Richardson won’t play in this game – slating Garnder Minshew to make his second start this year. Minshew is 3-0 straight up in games he has played significant snaps in so far in 2023. Although the two games he has played the Colts QB has orchestrated slightly more conservative game plans that have resulted in the Colts’ only unders this season (Weeks 3 + 5). Meanwhile, the Jaguars are 3-1 toward the under at home (including both games in London).

Two divisional opponents that know each other have me leaning heavily toward the under at 46.5 especially with Minshew drawing the start for Indianapolis.

Jacksonville should also limit the Colts’ ground game. Top-5 in fewest rushing yards per game and 8th in expected points added in run defense. Their pass rush is also solid, which should give Indianapolis some fits.

As much fun as it is to back Minshew as underdog against his old team, I think we are going to see the Jaguars hit their stride both offensively and defensively to cover the four-point spread at home. They have 400-plus yards of offense in two of their last 3 games.

On the props side, you need to bet the over on Christian Kirk. Zay Jones will probably miss this game, and we have seen Kirk’s production and involvement boom as a result in recent weeks. He’s gone over this number in 3 of his last 5 games (4/5 on closing line number) and the Colts’ defense has been gashed from the slot since blanking Kirk back in Week 1. 7th-most fantasy points per game allowed to slot WRs.

For the Colts, under on Zack Moss‘ rushing prop is too easy. First of all, he is going to split more carries with Jonathan Taylor. Ergo, carries and volume are not on his side. Second, the matchup is brutal. The Jaguars are top-5 in fewest rushing yards per game and 8th in expected points added in run defense.

Love the overs on both Colts WRs Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs. Pittman has owned the Jags in his last two matchups posting 97-plus yards. Downs has gone over 42.5 yards in two of his last three games.

Downs has been more productive in the games that Minshew has played than with Anthony Richardson. The same goes for Pittman. Both guys should be viewed in higher regard with Minshew.

The targets have been extremely concentrated between the two WRs anyway. Pittman has a 29% Target share this season. Downs owned a 25% Target share in Week 5. This year, it’s 20%.

Jacksonville is allowing the 9th-most receiving yards and fourth-highest yards per catch this season to opposing WRs.

My Picks:

My Props:

Chicago Bears (CHI 3.0) vs. Minnesota Vikings

The Bears welcome a Justin Jefferson-less Vikings team that is trending in the completely wrong direction. They are 1-4 and the vibes just aren’t good coming out of Week 5. Kirk Cousins is being floated in trade rumors with him on an expired deal.

Still, they find themselves as 2.5-point favorites on the road. And I get it because, besides the W-L record, Minnesota has been a solid team, specifically on the offensive side of the ball. Top-10 in yards and fourth in yards per play. It’s just the lack of turning yards into scoring (16th) and turnover margin (32nd) that have killed them in the win-loss column.

Meanwhile, Chicago’s offense has come to life over the last two weeks like what we saw last year after a slow start. I think the production continues versus a blitz-happy Vikings defense.

Over the last two weeks versus the blitz, Justin Fields has the third-highest passer rating (141.9). 5 passing TDs. Weeks 1-3 vs the blitz? The second-worst passer rating.

Still, Chicago’s defense is still abysmal.

The Bears rank 23rd in takeaways per game (0.8) and 26th in passes defended through four games.

Even without Jefferson, Cousins should be able to orchestrate an offense that can beat down the Bears defense. And without Chicago’s defense creating turnovers we should see the Vikings come away with a road win, despite how badly they have been hit by regression in one-score games this season compared to last season.

But if you’d rather not try your luck betting on the Vikings in a one-score spread with the regression god out for blood, just take the over. And bet the over on Justin Fields’ passing yards prop which has been comically set at 188.5 passing yards. Gone over that number in four of five games this season.

Chicago is 5-0 toward the over due to the rare combination of horrible defense and offense that can get on a hot streak. And even without Jefferson, I think we can see the Vikings score against one of the league’s worst defenses.

As for player props, the prop on Vikings RB Alexander Mattison is just too low. Although the Vikings are using more RBs, Mattison is still seeing the vast majority of carries. And before last week, the Bears had allowed at least 40 rushing yards to an opposing RB. However, if you’d just rather fade Mattison altogether, considering the under on his receiving yards prop. Aside from Mattison continuing to drop screen passes left and right, he is losing pass-down usage to both Cam Akers and C.J. Ham in recent weeks. After catching 3 passes in every single game the first three weeks, Mattison has just three total catches on four targets. The under at 2.5 receptions very much in play (-110 BetMGM).

Also want to highlight the weather concerns here as well, so you may want to wait until earlier Sunday for a full weather update. The forecast at the time of writing calls for rain and winds 17-19 miles per hour. The total continues to dip as a result, so I think I’d back the under and probably flip to the Bears +3.0 at home in bad weather conditions. Otherwise, the game might just be a complete shy away.

Sunday update: The weather still doesn’t seem to be great, so I am flip-flopping my official picks. Under on the game at 43.5 and Bears +3. Fields can take advantage of poor weather/field conditions with his mobility.

There are certain props I still like in rainy conditions that I think can hit assuming we get short-to-intermediate passing attacks from these two offenses.

K.J. Osborn OVER 40.5 receiving yards. Osborn figures to take on a larger role with Justin Jefferson sidelined. Specifically, as Kirk Cousins’ short dump-off option. The Bears rank dead last in YAC allowed this season. Osborn has also had a ton of success versus the Bears defense in the past. In two games last year versus Chicago, Osborn posted a combined 10 catches for 158 yards on 11 targets.

I also love the OVER on Cole Kmet‘s receptions prop at plus-money odds. Vikings rank 6th in receptions allowed to TEs (5.8 per game) and Kmet has surpassed 3.5 catches in all but one game this year. He ranks 5th in the NFL in receptions among TEs.

My Picks:

My Props:

Las Vegas Raiders (LV -3) vs. New England Patriots

Back again with my Patriots. The offense has been beyond dysfunctional, and the defense has suffered several key injuries. That’s resulted in a two-game losing streak where they have been outscored 3-72.

The only semblance of hope that works in the offense’s favor is that the Las Vegas Raiders’ defense is the weakest unit they faced this season. The Raiders struggle to generate pass rush outside of Maxx Crosby and have a horrible run defense that has made sub-poor offenses run the ball effectively this season. They rank 10th in rushing yards allowed per game. And the Patriots will likely be able to establish some ground game considering they won’t be down two TDs from the get-go.

The Raiders rank 24th in first-half points per game.

But if you’d rather just avoid picking sides – as I also like to do – just bet the under. The Patriots are 5-0 toward the under this season. Las Vegas? 4-1 toward the under this season. The only game that has gone over was LV playing the Bills back in Week 2.

For the LV side of the props, I like betting the overs on the WRs. Because the Patriots’ banged-up secondary doesn’t have the guys to hang with the likes of Jakobi Meyers and Davante Adams.

In three games with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback, Meyers has averaged 10.5 targets, 7.6 receptions, 80.3 receiving yards, and 1 TD per game. Adams had gone over 70 yards in three straight games before last week’s win versus the Packers. Expect him to get back on track.

My Picks:

My Props:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB 3) vs. Detroit Lions

I think this line is disrespectful to the Detroit Lions. Considering its 3-points awarded to the home team – give or take – this is suggesting that the Lions-Buccaneers would be a pick ’em on a neutral field. IN. WHAT. WORLD.

I honestly think this is reading too much into Jared Goff‘s home/road splits when it’s more about his effectiveness – or lack of – in bad weather. Sunday’s game in Tampa Bay projects for 77 degrees and sunny weather. The Lions offense is also supposed to get a boost back in the form of WR Amon-Ra St. Brown. Meanwhile, Mike Evans opened the week with a DNP after suffering a hamstring injury in Week 4. Off a bye week. Not good for the Buccaneers.

And outside a pick-six thrown by Goff in the OT loss to Seattle, I spot zero blemishes from the Lions’ 2023 record on both sides of the ball. Their pass rush is one of the best units in the league, ranking 8th in pressure rate and 5th in total pressures.

The Lions have also been extremely profitable since the middle of last season, as they are 21-7 (75%) vs. the spread in games with 54 points or fewer scored since current offensive coordinator Ben Johnson took on a larger role in calling the offense.

The Lions are a legitimate 4-1 team. The Buccaneers are a fraudulent 3-1 team. They beat two teams that were winless and another team that trotted out a QB just a week removed from an AC shoulder injury.

The Buccaneers have benefited greatly from metrics that are not sustainable.

No.1 in turnover margin. Baker Mayfield is the highest-rated QB under pressure. He’s also been the best QB on third down. These are great descriptive statistics. He has been playing well, no doubt. But his level is production is not predictive.

Fade the Bucs. Lions -3. Lock Button.

For totals, it’s an under for me. The Buccaneers are 3-1 toward the under and have totaled fewer than 44 points in all four of their games played. Given their strengths on defense, I think they can keep the Lions’ offense limited to keep the total under 44 points.

As for the Buccaneers’ player props. Hammer the under on Rachaad White. The Lions have the league’s No. 1 run defense and White has not been an efficient rusher this season. No RB the Lions have faced has surpassed 45 yards on the ground against them.

My Picks:

My Props:

New York Jets (NYJ +7.0) vs. Philadelphia Eagles

The undefeated Eagles head back to the East Coast to take on the Jets fresh off a win against the lowly Denver Broncos.

The Eagles defense has regressed majorly since last season, ranking 30th in red zone defense and 26th on third downs. Their pass rush and defensive line remain top-tier – first in the NFL in pressures – but they can be picked apart in the secondary if the pressure doesn’t hit home. That’s going to prove problematic for New York’s offensive line that just lost starting guard, Alijah Vera-Tucker to a torn Achilles. The Eagles’ strengths of defense are also against the run – they have allowed the fewest fantasy points to RBs this season – which puts the Jets in a tough position offensively if they can’t get Breece Hall going.

New York has the second-worst matchup this week in the trenches, per The 33rd Team’s Trenches Matchup Tool.

Meanwhile, the Jets defense has been somewhat overrated. They have shown no ability to stop the running game ranking fourth in rushing yards allowed per game. They rank 27th on third downs but have slowed teams enough in the red zone (3rd) to keep points off the board. Ultimately though, they give up a ton of yardage (22nd) because the other offense controls the pace of play.

The Eagles offense has posted over 400 yards of offense in four straight games. And yet that has resulted in just two games with a total of 40-plus points.

From a sides perspective, I am backing the Eagles as road 7-point favorites. Their defense can exploit the Jets’ poor OL and put pressure on Zach Wilson to force mistakes. Meanwhile, the Eagles possess too many playmakers and elite ground attack for Gang Green to have enough answers on defense. Comes down to the red zone where New York can “try” and keep things close against an offense that has also struggled to convert in the red zone (27th).

Spoiler they won’t.

On the side of the total, I lean under 41 points. The Eagles are 3-2 toward the under this year, while the Jets are 2-0 toward the over in their light resurgence the last two weeks. Still, one game was against the Denver Broncos. And betting AGAINST teams after they face Denver has been a profitable trend aside from last Thursday night with the Chicago Bears’ big win versus the Washington Commanders.

There’s also a chance of rain and light wind, further bolstering the case for the under.

On the props side, look no further than DeVonta Smith coming off his worst game of the season. Buy low on Smith. He still led the team in routes run. Visibly upset with the lack of usage on the sideline. Don’t envision him seeing that little involvement for a second straight game. With Sauce Gardner likely trying to cover A.J. Brown, the targets should open up for Smith to feast in the passing game.

Probably prefer the over on his 4.5 receptions more at plus-money odds (+105 BetMGM).

My Picks:

My Props:

Los Angeles Rams (LAR -7) vs. Arizona Cardinals

The Rams play host to the Cardinals in Week 6, coming off a tough loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. The Rams offense fell flat in time of possession and couldn’t score in the second half after taking a 14-10 lead late in the second quarter. So poor defense at the end of the half led to an Eagles’ go-ahead TD as time expired in the first half, and the Eagles never looked back.

It was a rare performance by the Rams defense to not get off the field on third downs, as they entered Week 5 as an above-average unit. They were actually better defensively in the red zone holding Philly to 3 field goals on 5 red-zone trips.

LA’s been a team that has yet to really put together a complete full game. It’s been mostly strong halves of play – top-12 in points scored and allowed in the 1st half – followed by letdowns in the second half.

In fact, that has been the storyline with both these teams. Fast starters in the first half, but slow in the second half.

I don’t think the Cardinals will present much of a threat to stop the Rams’ high-octane offense that has yet to truly hit its ceiling. Arizona ranks 26th in yards per attempt, 30th in third down conversion rate allowed, and 31st in pressure rate generated.

The Rams offense should score points – especially early – with Cooper Kupp fully healthy at home. And I don’t think the Cardinals have the manpower to keep things close playing on the road. They should be 0-2 versus the spread on the road this season. And since the plucky Josh Dobbs started the year 3-0 versus the spread (zero expectations) they have dropped back-to-back games ATS, losing by an average of 16.5 points.

Considering the Cardinals’ bad defense has created shootout environments – last four games have hit the over – I like the over in the first half and in the game’s total. It’s in a dome, and Arizona plays fast from a tempo standpoint. They also rank top-10 in both third-down conversion rate and red-zone efficiency, so they can do enough to force the Rams to stay aggressive.

Their aggressive nature should create enough pass attempts to get Puka Nacua well over his 5.5 receptions prop.

When Cooper Kupp returned last week, the big question was what would happen toNacua’s targets? Nacua saw 11 targets catching 7-71 and 1 TD. 100% snap share. 32% Target share. Exactly the same as Weeks 1-4. Baller. Bet the over. Arizona ranks 5th in receptions and 3rd in completion rate allowed to WRs this season.

My Picks:

My Props:

Buffalo Bills (BUF -14.5) vs. New York Giants

When the NFL schedule was released, it didn’t look great for the New York Giants. But man, I don’t think anybody thought it could go THIS bad for Big Blue. Juggernaut after juggernaut they have been tasked with taking on. And to add literal insult to injury – Daniel Jones is dealing with a neck injury – they have to face a pissed-off Buffalo Bills team coming off a loss in London. They just recently faced a pissed-off Miami Dolphins team and were totally overmatched.

As two TD road underdogs, you’d like to think they could at least cover the spread? Well, think again.

Big Blue’s offense – which has played a grand total of two quarters through five games this season – it’s hard to have any confidence they will turn things around. 0-5 versus the spread. Woof.

The team is also extremely banged up between Jones, Andrew Thomas, John Michael Schmitz, Matt Peart, Darren Waller and Wan’Dale Robinson.

The only semblance they have is that maybe Saquon Barkley suits up. But an RB coming off a high ankle sprain can only do so much behind a patchwork OL.

As a result, New York is 4-1 toward the under this season. Just have no faith that this offense can show up in any capacity even against a banged-up Bills defense that has been pretty solid this season.

Woof. Take the Bills, and don’t look back.

New York has trailed by AT LEAST 10-plus points in all five games this season. And we have seen Buffalo TROUNCE teams in all their wins by margins of 28, 28, and 34. 14 points may not be enough against a Tyrod Taylor-led team. Might be worth an alternate spread to get your money’s worth of a potential blood bath.

The Giants’ pressure rate ranks in the bottom 10. And if you can’t get to Josh Allen, he shreds you.

From a total perspective, I am shooting for the under at 45. Even though the Bills are 2-0 toward the over at home, I have no faith that Big Blue can push them into scoring, unless Barkley is active. If Saquon plays, I might be slightly more tempted to shoot for the over, given how bad the Bills run defense has been this season. Again, the only Giants games to go over the totals have been when their offense has shown any pulse. As it stands right now, that doesn’t seem to be the case.

My Picks:

My Props:

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     Los Angeles Chargers (LAC 2.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys

    Monday night football is all about the narrative street. The Chargers, led by former Cowboys OC, Kellen Moore, take on Dallas after their big prime-time beatdown. The Chargers are 2.5-point “home dogs” although we know the Chargers don’t really have much of an actual home-field advantage. Expect to see plenty of Cowboys jerseys in the stands.

    But what will we get from Dallas? A team that, through five weeks, still doesn’t have much of an identity. They blew out the Giants, Jets and Patriots inferior offenses while losing at home in disastrous fashion versus the Arizona Cardinals. Then there’s last week’s demolition against the 49ers.

    Still, Dallas should be 4-1 at worst. And their defense is a big part of that, as their offense continues to struggle mightily in the red zone. And the Chargers defense has been solid in that area of the field. 10th in RZ defense. However, they are facing the 2nd-most red-zone visits per game.

    At the end of the day, Dallas wants to run the football and play defense. A winning formula to beat inferior teams by field goals. In a three-point spread, this method works. Especially given that the Chargers are not a formidable run defense and Dallas’ OL is at full strength.

    Dallas’ offense is far from perfect, but they still are the No. 3 offense on third downs and are averaging 21-plus points strictly on offense with mostly field goals.

    Even with the Chargers coming off the bye week, I hardly think they will be at any significant advantage with Brandon Stanley leading the team. The Chargers are 2-2 ATS this year, but it’s been by razor-thin margins.

    Think Dallas bounces back here with the FG win. They have been great at kicking FGs and no team loses more games due to heat-breaking kicks than the Chargers.

    Dallas is 3-2 toward the under this year, whereas LA is 2-2. Considering the bloated total at 50.5 I am strongly leading toward the under.

    I also need to include this bet mentioned by Joe Raineri on the Week 6 Best Bets BettingPros podcast. He loves the Chargers 1st half money line, followed by a Dallas ML in the second half. Justin Herbert has been one of the most profitable QBs to bet on in the first halves of games, and the least in the second halves. LA is 3-1 on the first half ML this season.

    LA’s been a top-scoring unit in the first half over the last three seasons. Ask any Chargers fan about how every week is followed by a gut-wrenching finish in the 4th quarter. LA in the 2nd half is allowing 13.5 points per game (26th) this season.

    My favorite prop in this game? Joshua Palmer UNDER 52.5 receiving yards. Here’s the scoop. The Cowboys are allowing the fewest fantasy points to perimeter WRs this season. 3rd-fewest receiving yards allowed overall to WRs with the 2nd-lowest catch rate.

    In Week 4, Palmer led the team with 8 targets, finishing with 3 catches for 77 yards. Again, the final stat line is majorly boosted by the last-minute 51-yard catch, so Palmer busted for essentially 59 minutes. Keep that in mind as Austin Ekeler‘s return will likely lower Palmer’s target share as will an increased workload for rookie Quentin Johnston.

    The BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet agrees with me projecting Palmer for just 41.2 receiving yards – more than 10 yards under his listed prop.

    My Picks:

    My Props:

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