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NFL Betting Primer: Top Picks & Player Prop Bets for Every Game (Week 7)

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Introducing the Week 7 edition of the NFL Betting primer, proudly brought to you by BettingPros! I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m thrilled to be your guide as we delve into each game on the NFL slate. Here, you’ll find expert insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and enticing player props that could pave the way for impressive single-game parlays. Note that early in the week the props can be limited to just Underdog and PrizePicks, until normal sportsbooks release their player props closer to Sunday.

Before we dive into Week 7, let’s take a moment to reflect on the performance in Week 5 and overall.

Below is the official record on the recommended picks from Week 6 (not including Thursday night football). Another GREAT week from a sides and totals perspective. Props were down overall, but we made up for it with longshot 1st TD calls.  Thank you, Zay Flowers AND Jakobi Meyers.

My hot streak on totals continues to ride (58%). When in doubt, tail my total. Six weeks into NFL betting, it seems like I’ve got a niche when it comes to ending on the profitable side of betting totals. And as a result, we are back up to the positive six weeks in.

Week 6

  • Spread: 6-5
  • Totals: 11-6
  • Player Props: 13-18
  • ML: 1-0

Overall: 31-29

2023 season

  • Spread: 34-40
  • Totals: 49-35
  • Player Props: 83-89
  • ML: 4-2

Overall: 167-164

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NFL Betting Primer: Week 7

New York Giants (NYG) vs. Washington Football Team (WAS) – New York (+3)

We have some weather concerns with heavy wind potential, so track that as we approach Sunday’s kick-off time. Rain is not a factor, but winds are forecasted up to 20 miles per hour.

The Giants offense is arguably coming off its best game to date with Tyrod Taylor at the helm, but I’d argue Saquon Barkley’s return is what actually fueled Big Blue’s most productive offensive outing since Week 2 versus the Cardinals. Ergo, whether it’s Daniel Jones or Taylor at QB, I am not sure it really matters given all the OL injuries on the Giants side of the ball.

The Commanders defense ranks 8th in pressure rate and 6th in sacks. And after allowing 33-plus points in 4 straight games, they limited the Falcons to 16 points while playing on the road.

New York is 5-1 toward the under this season.

Still, they covered the spread with an impressive defensive outing, holding the Bills to 14 points and under 300 total yards. And I’d expect them to find some similar success playing at home versus the Commanders with their blitz-heavy scheme.

Sam Howell versus the blitz this season: 27th in yards per attempt, second-highest pressure to sack rate, 5th worst in passer rating.

Still, can’t ignore how productive the Commanders’ offense has been productive under Howell – scoring at least 20 points in all their games outside the loss to Buffalo.

But again when it comes to the sides, it’s all about turnovers. The Commanders covered last week winning the turnover battle 3-0.

When they have failed ATS they have combined for 10 offensive turnovers. In the 3 games they have covered, 0 turnovers on offense.

The Giants have done a better job of taking care of the football the last two weeks with zero offensive turnovers, while their defense has generated 5.

From a sides perspective this game seems like a screaming stay away with unpredictable turnovers almost surely the deciding factor. As a result, I’d likely settle with Giants +3, but I can’t touch it until I see this week’s injury report with the state of their OL and current QB situation. As of the initial injury report, the OL still looks to be in shambles.

The total seems like an under play even at a low number of 37.5, but a healthy Giants unit might be actually able to move the ball.

The Commanders run defense boasts a strong front, but they can be run on. They rank 32nd in expected points added on run defense. They are allowing north of 4 yards per carry to RBs and the second-most rushing yards per game to opposing QBs (34.3).

Although I still lean toward the under with Saquon Barkley’s rushing prop. Sits at 68.5 rushing yards on Prizepicks despite him getting that number just once this season in three games played. The Commanders have allowed just two RBs to hit 70-plus rushing yards against them this season, and it’s come due to big rushes. James Cook and Khalil Herbert ripped off 34-yard gains versus Washington when they went over their projected rushing totals.

Barkley looked like his explosive self on Sunday night, with rushes of 34 yards and 19 yards. But betting on a repeat performance with another massive rush seems unlikely, especially given the state of the Giants OL.

Washington’s secondary is actually abysmal. 3rd-most fantasy points per game allowed to QBs. League-high yards per completion (12.7) and 3rd-highest adjusted yards gained per pass attempt.

Again, the only Giants games to go over the totals have been when their offense has shown any pulse. As it stands right now, that seems like it could be the case versus a real bad Commanders defense playing on the road.

This matchup also features two defenses that rank the highest – 4th and 8th respectively – in explosive plays allowed on defense.

As long as the weather outlook improves for Sunday, I think we could get an over in this spot.

And we can’t overlook how effective Daniel Jones has been versus Washington in his career. He has a 5-1-1 record versus them straight up (2-0 versus the spread last season). The Giants have been underdogs versus the Commanders in their last four matchups…with Big Blue covering or winning outright in all four contests.  6-1 versus the spread.

Curtis Samuel’s receptions at plus money hit last week. Let’s roll it back. He’s hit the over on his projected total in five of his 6 games played this season including three straight.

My Picks:

  • Over 37.5 ( -110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • Giants +3 (-110 FanDuel Sportsbook)

My Props:

New England Patriots (NE) vs. Buffalo Bills (BUF) – Bills (-7.5)

Early weather forecasts for rain/wind. As if this game couldn’t get more gross. But bad weather plays in the advantage to the home underdog Patriots.

To start, we can easily get back to the under here. The Patriots offense continues to struggle, and they have been 6-0 toward the under this season.

Buffalo has gone under its projected game total in all of their road/neutral played games this season. Josh Allen is also dealing/nursing a shoulder injury.

When these teams met last year, it was split toward the under-over, while Buffalo won both outright by an average of 13 points.

Outside a bizarre showing on Sunday night, the Bills have either lost close games in dramatic fashion or blow teams out of the building.

Unfortunately for Patriots fans, this projects to be more of the latter. Josh Allen and company have won five of the last six meetings with New England, the one loss coming in an extremely rare wind game.

Buffalo has scored 35, 24, 33, 38, 24 in their victories versus the Pats. The Patriots haven’t scored 20 points on offense since Week 1.

Unless the line moves into the double-digits – the process always says to take double-digit point underdogs at home – I am sticking with Buffalo -7.5.

The total is already low at 41 points…but my faith in New England establishing any semblance of offense doesn’t project favorably. They had all the opportunities to run the ball last week versus a bad Raiders defense and couldn’t score more than 17 points on offense.

The Bills run defense is equally as bad – if not worse than the Raiders – but it’s a moot point if the Patriots are down 14-0 nothing after the first quarter and have to abandon the run.

With both teams boasting top-7 red-zone defenses, we might get more FGs than TDs which further puts me toward the under as the move.

On the props side, I am just fishing for value. Gabe Davis’ 33.5 receiving yards prop is extremely low. He’s gone over in four of 6 games this season including four in a row before last week. The Patriots defense ranks 6th in receiving yards allowed per game to No. 2 WRs, setting Davis up nicely to get over the low bar.

My Picks:

  • Under 40.5 (-115 FanDuel)
  • Bills -7.5 (-110 BetMGM)

My Props:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB) vs. Atlanta Falcons (ATL) – Buccaneers (-2.5)

This game was one that stuck to me the most initially when I first glanced at the Week 7 slate. And it comes down to the simple fact that the Atlanta Falcons are a team that you want to fade on the road, even though they are coming off a loss at home. They actually had a NUMBER of opportunities to cover the spread last week in the fourth quarter, but they came up just short.

Atlanta is 0-2 on the road this season, averaging 6.5 points per game.

Tampa Bay’s defense has been solid.

Definition of bend, but don’t break defensive unit. No.1 in the red zone, but 31st on the third downs. Teams can move easily on the Bucs between the 20s, but they tighten up in the red zone.

And they have limited points to high-powered offenses like the Eagles/Lions. I would put the Falcons in a clear tier below those two units, if not farther down with Desmond Ridder as their starting QB.

My only concern with Tampa Bay is that Atlanta is overdue for positive turnover regression, while the Buccaneers are on the negative side of the spectrum.

Tampa Bay is second in plus turnover margin, while the Falcons rank 27th. While those descriptive stats suggest TB should have the turnover edge, it’s noisy when it comes to projecting them weekly. Turnovers by nature are fluky. However, there’s no denying that Ridder’s third-ranked turnover-worthy play rate (14 total this season) suggests that the Buccaneers should come away with the turnover battle.

Tampa Bay is also an elite run defense – 7th fewest rushing yards allowed per game –  which further puts Atlanta’s offense in a tough position if they have to rely solely on their passing attack.

As for the totals, I am sure you can guess this one coming. Under. Atlanta’s defense is underrated, boasting the 6th best red zone unit and the second-best third-down conversion rate.

Atlanta is 5-1 toward the under this season. Buccaneers are 4-1 toward the under. If it ain’t broke don’t fix it.

Kyle Pitts might struggle in this matchup. He mostly aligns in the slot and that is where TB has been excellent versus tight ends—the 5th-fewest fantasy points allowed to TEs in the slot. Buccaneers are a tough matchup for TEs anyway allowing just 39 yards per game to the position. 3rd-lowest yards per reception. 0 TDs to tight ends because they have the no. 1 red-zone defense.

For additional props, you want to target the middle of the Falcons defense. Their biggest weakness is their slot CB, Dee Alford, which could lead to a highly involved day for Chris Godwin. Alford ranks second in targets and catches allowed from the slot this season. Godwin has 6-plus receptions in back-to-back games with at least 5 catches in all but one game this season.

Also, Buccaneers tight end Cade Otton is set up extremely nicely in this matchup. He plays all the snaps for the Buccaneers and Atlanta is a plus-matchup for tight ends. No. 2-ranked prop on the prop bet analyzer.

Atlanta is allowing the 9th-most yards and 6th-most receptions to TEs this season.

The BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet loves the Bijan Robinson over prop on his receptions and I tend to agree. No. 1-ranked prop on the prop bet analyzer.

It’s listed at 3.5 catches when he is projected for 4.3 receptions. He’s 5-1 toward the over on that number this season as he leads all RBs in catches while tying his team with Drake London for the most receptions on the team.

But it’s not love for all RBs. Rachaad White has rushed for 50 yards just twice this season behind the poor Buccaneers blocking unit. The Falcons have the second-best run defense in terms of expected points contributed this season. But my favorite White prop has to do with his receiving numbers. Atlanta has allowed the second-fewest receiving yards and fewest receptions per game to RBs this season. Bet the under on White’s 3.5 receptions prop.

My Picks:

  • Buccaneers -2.5 (-110 BetMGM)
  • Under 37 (-110 DrafKings Sportsbook)

My Props:

Baltimore Ravens (BAL) vs. Detroit Lions (DET) – Ravens (-3)

Heavy wind potential for a game between two legitimate Super Bowl contenders (22 miles per hour with gusts up to 35 mph). I think this is a true “prove it” game for both teams, to put the rest of the league on notice of how seriously they should be taken.

The line is pretty spot on given the Ravens playing at home.

But it’s clear that the trends heavily favor the Lions. Detroit has been extremely profitable since the middle of last season, as they are 22-7 (76%) vs. the spread in games with 54 points or fewer scored since current offensive coordinator Ben Johnson took on a larger role in calling the offense.

And team’s coming off the London game have been trailing in all their games the next week in the fourth quarter. Both teams rank top-10 in points scored per game in the first half, but Baltimore has been sluggish at home averaging just 7 points per game in the first half.

Would not surprise me in the slightest to see the Lions jump out to a lead, with the Ravens hoping to rally in the second half.

Honestly, I like the Lions a lot in this spot as 3-point underdogs because it’s just based on them playing on the road. But again, the home-road splits with Jared Goff – as we discussed last week – only impact him in actual cold weather.

But they proved last week they could travel to a hostile environment and score points on a solid offense. The Buccaneers shut down the Lions’ running game, and the offense still totaled 380 yards of offense, as Goff diced up a solid secondary with 340 passing yards.

The Lions’ offensive line is ranked No. 1 in PFF pass-blocking and is setting up Goff for success every single week. I don’t anticipate much change versus a Ravens’ pass rush that ranks fourth worst in pressure rate.

Lamar Jackson won’t be as lucky. The Lions defense has come ALIVE this season generating the fourth-most pressures and 7th-highest pressure rate.

He will have to be Superman to get the Ravens to the promised land (and 3-point cover).

For the total, everything points to the under including the weather forecast – although I don’t feel as strongly about it as some of other unders on the Week 7 slate. It has some elements of a sneaky shootout just based on two QBs that are playing excellent ball squaring off.

The Ravens have been an under-machine at 5-1 this season. But they have also faced a rookie QB making his first start, an injured Joe Burrow, another backup QB in Gardner Minshew, another rookie QB making his first start, Kenny Pickett (lol) and Ryan Tannehill/Malik Willis.

Their one “over” was against the Bengals – easily the best QB they have faced all season.

The Lions are 3-3 when it comes to totals but 1-2 toward the under on the road. Given how unders have been hitting, Detroit has been one of the “better” teams to force overs.

The way I see the over hitting is with Lamar Jackson’s magic. I am confident that Detroit will score against the Ravens if they can’t get pressure on Goff. And Jackson can easily shred the Lions’ secondary if their pass rush doesn’t hit home. And the offense the Ravens are running under Todd Monken – he’s getting the ball out faster than ever before – suggests that the Ravens passing attack will have its moments with their run game likely neutralized by the No.1-ranked Lions run defense.

So, after going into this game fully anticipating backing the under, I am pivoting to an over after further review.

And we can parlay a game over with a player prop over. Because it’s Mark Andrews week. The Ravens tight end has gone over 65-plus yards in three straight games and is in a great spot versus a suspect Lions defense that has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to tight ends this season.

My Picks:

  • Lions +3 (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • Over 42 (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)

My Props:

Chicago Bears (CHI) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (LV) – Bears (+3)

If there is any team that could blow a game versus a former Division II quarterback making his first NFL start…it’s the Las Vegas Raiders. Ya know the same team that lost to a Jeff Saturday-coached team last year at home as four-point favorites.

They head on the road this week to take on the Bears with similar QB question marks themselves. Jimmy Garoppolo is dealing with a back injury, and it has been noted that rookie Aidan O’Connell will draw his second start of the season.

O’Connell was underwhelming in his debut back in Week 4 versus the Chargers. The biggest issue was taking sacks. Fifty-eight percent of his pressures turned into sacks. Took seven total sacks which are the ultimate drive-killers. He posted solid fantasy numbers with a rushing TD and 238 passing yards, but I’d hardly say his experience put the Raiders in a spot that puts them at a great advantage versus another rookie quarterback.

Should also mention that Tyson Bagent played well based on the circumstances in last week’s game. After taking a sack that resulted in a TD on his second play – would crush the confidence of any rookie QB – Bagent kept his composure.

In the fourth quarter down 19-6, he got them back in the game. Drove the team from the 23-yard line on a 9-play TD drive. And he got them within striking distance to tie the game on the next drive before throwing an interception that sealed victory for Minnesota.

Overall, he did enough to potentially get Chicago the win had it not been for the fumble six.

And that is enough for me to back the Bears at home versus the Raiders who got bailed out by a safety to cover the spread last week versus the Patriots.

Chicago should be able to run the ball against a bad Raiders run defense to come away with a home victory.

On the totals, just go under.

The Raiders are 5-1 toward the under this season. I presume they go run-heavy with a rookie QB, even though the Bears strengths on defense are against the rushing attempts of running backs.

Chicago is 5-1 toward the over, with their only under coming last week after Justin Fields got hurt. As long as Fields remains sidelined, I’d anticipate a new streak of “unders” is upon us.

No better way to pair that under than with a play on Josh Jacob’s rushing prop. The Bears weakness on defense is versus the RBs in the passing game, not the running game. They have allowed no RB to surpass more than 73 yards against them this season. They have allowed just 3.5 yards per carry – equivalent to the Cleveland Browns. Simply put, this number for Jacobs is way too high. He’s surpassed 70 yards rushing one time all year. He is averaging 2.9 yards per carry on the year.

My Picks:

  • Bears +3 (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • Under 37.5 (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)

My Props:

Indianapolis Colts (IND) vs. Cleveland Browns (CLE) – Browns (-3)

At the time of this writing, we still don’t know whether or not Deshaun Watson is playing. He is still listed as day-to-day and he has been pretty non-committal about whether he will start on Sunday versus the Colts. Considering he has a fully guaranteed contract; he literally has zero reason to force himself into action if he’s not 100%. So, I’d bet he doesn’t play.

That will put PJ Walker back into the starting lineup after a pretty horrific performance versus the 49ers. Now, that defense is elite, and Walker did enough to put the Browns in a position to win the game. But one could argue that the team won in spite of Walker and his 45.2 passer rating. He threw two interceptions and have five turnover-worthy plays. Only 59% of his passes were deemed catchable in the rainy conditions and his highly accurate throw rate was a bleak 38%. However, the conditions and defensive opponent have to be considered given that Brock Purdy also posted abysmal numbers.

I’d expect Walker to be better as the starter in Week 7 in a more favorable matchup, which I can’t say for the Colts QB Gardner Minshew. Minshew was equally as bad as Walker was in Week 6 with seven turnover-worthy plays.

And that was against the Jaguars. Against a superior Browns defense that ranks first in a number of categories, things are going to get worse before they get better.

On the total side, you have to go under with two inferior QBs going at it. Before last week, the games that Minshew played the most in resulted in the Colts’ only unders this season (Weeks 3 + 5). Last week, the game hit the over despite the Colts trailing 31-6 heading into the fourth quarter.

Not sure we get nearly as much garbage time production two weeks in a row.

My Picks:

  • Browns -3 (-118 DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • Under 41 (-110 BetMGM)

Los Angeles Rams (LAR) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT) – Rams (-3)

The Steelers are coming off their bye week, but that didn’t help teams much in Week 6. The four teams off the bye week went 1-3 straight up and ATS, with the lone victory coming for the Browns (who should have lost had it not been for a missed FG).

The big question mark is around the Steelers’ offense and whether they can “fix” the issues they have had under offensive coordinator Matt Canada. Spoiler. It won’t. The offense has gotten worse every year under Canada.

The only reason they are 3-2 is because of their defense. They’ve created turnovers at just the right time to beat teams like the Browns, Raiders and Ravens despite being out-gained in yardage in every single game they have played this season.

And I’d expect more of the same versus the Rams, who are a top-10 red zone defense and rank 8th in expected points contributed on pass defense.

They are completely overrated as a 3-2 team. All they have is a pass rush and nothing more.

When the pass rush doesn’t hit home, their secondary has been shredded by every QB they have faced. Pittsburgh has allowed the 4th most fantasy points to the WR position. At least one opposing WR has gone for 70-plus yards against them every game this year. 3rd in yards per completion

They also rank 5th in rushing yards allowed per game.

Whether it be through the air or on the ground, we should see the Rams move the ball on the Steelers and covert in the red zone.

The issue is the Rams’ inconsistent play. LA’s been a team that has yet to really put together a complete full game. It’s been mostly strong halves of play – top-12 in points scored and allowed in the 1st half – followed by letdowns in the second half. Last week was the polar opposite, with them starting slow and gaining steam in the second half as they were down 9-3. They scored twenty points unanswered with a run game that the Cardinals had zero answers for.

I have way more confidence that Sean McVay can make the correct adjustments on offense that Canada could only make in his dreams. Simply put, I don’t think the Steelers have the manpower to keep things close playing on the road.

Rams -3. Lock button.

As for the total, I lean toward the under. Again, the Rams have been the tale of two halves, and would likely need a full four quarters to effectively score enough points to get this over the 43.5-point total. The Steelers’ pass rush will have its moments and stall drives. Even with Cooper Kupp back the last two weeks, the Rams are 2-0 toward the under.

Pittsburgh is 4-1 toward the under this season for reasons I’ve already laid out. The one time they hit the over it came against the Browns. That game featured two defensive TDs and a 71-yard TD pass from the Steelers. It is still the most points they have scored in a game this season.

For props, the Puka Nacua receiving prop sticks out like a sore thumb. The line is set at 59.5 yards and it’s just too low based on the matchup. Again, Pittsburgh has allowed over 200 receiving yards per game to the WR position. At least one opposing WR has gone for 70-plus yards against them every game this year. 3rd in yards per completion

Buy the dip on Nacua after a down game. He still had four catches for 26 yards and was highly involved with 7 targets (33% target share). The Rams ran the ball in the entire second half so they didn’t have to throw. I’d anticipate they throw plenty in this plus-matchup considering the Rams are down their two top RBs.

The BettingPros Draft Prop Bet Cheat Sheet agrees with me, projecting Nacua for 65.2 receiving yards.

As for the Steelers’ side of the ball, I love the over on Pat Freiermuth. The Steelers tight end has dealt with injuries that have negatively impacted his receiving lines. But coming out healthy after the bye week, he should be full-go. Last season, Freiermuth went 9 straight games with 36-plus yards. Simply put, the receiving line set is that of a fringe backup tight end. Not a full-time starter like Freiermuth. Buy the dip.

The Rams have allowed the second-most receiving yards to tight ends this season (69/game).

Easy over.

My Picks:

  • Rams -3 (-108 DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • Under 44 (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)

My Props:

Seattle Seahawks (SEA) vs. Arizona Cardinals (ARI) – Seahawks (-8.5)

Don’t need to sugarcoat this matchup. The Cardinals defense is not good.

Arizona ranks 27th in yards per attempt, 27th in third down conversion rate allowed, and 32nd in pressure rate generated.

Their run defense got gashed in the second half of last week, as it has been run on ALL year. The Cardinals are allowing the third-most fantasy points to RBs this season. 4.5 yards per carry and 113 rushing yards to RBs per game.

The Seahawks offense should score points at home.

And I don’t think the Cardinals have the manpower to keep things close playing on the road. They should be 0-3 versus the spread on the road this season. And since the plucky Josh Dobbs started the year 3-0 versus the spread (zero expectations) they have dropped three straight games ATS, losing by an average of 16.5 points.

Considering the Cardinals’ bad defense has created shootout environments – the last four of five games have hit the over – I like the over in the game’s total. Arizona plays fast from a tempo standpoint. They are also above average in third-down conversion rate and red-zone efficiency, so they can do enough to force the Seahawks to stay aggressive. Arizona has 340-plus yards of offense in three of their last four games.

The Seahawks defense ranks 32nd in red-zone conversion rate allowed and 30th in third-down conversion rate.

Seattle’s rush defense is stout – 3.2 yards per carry allowed, 6th fewest rushing yards allowed per game – allowing just 2.7 yards per carry to opposing RBs. An average of 21 carries faced for just 56 yards.

They only give up production through the air. Seattle has allowed the third-most explosive passing plays per game.

Considering Arizona’s overall defensive struggles – I think this game could be a sneaky shootout after Seattle laid an egg versus the Bengals. Smith still tossed for 326 passing yards, but they just couldn’t convert in the red zone.

The Cardinals play a ton of zone coverage, which favors Tyler Lockett as the No. 1 target. He leads the team with a 23% target share versus zone this season. However, he has been inefficient on his targets averaging just 3 catches for 30 yards per game versus zone. 58.3% catch rate is a team-low for Seahawks pass-catchers versus zone coverage. Lockett’s strong yardage output in Week 6 was boosted by two catches of 30-plus yards. He had zero catches of 20-plus yard air targets entering the game (0-for-7).

Love the over on Marquise Brown’s receiving yards prop. Brown led Arizona with 11 targets and finished with 4 catches for 34 yards. Dobbs missed Brown early which could have easily been a long TD to go along with 3 red-zone targets. Brown will bounce back in a potential shootout. On the year, Hollywood Brown ranks 14th in the NFL with a 29% Target share and 5th in air yards share (45%).

My favorite prop is the under on Keontay Ingram. Seattle’s rush defense is stout – 3.2 yards per carry allowed, 6th fewest rushing yards allowed per game – allowing just 2.7 yards per carry to opposing RBs. An average of 21 carries faced for just 56 yards. Ingram got to 40 yards last week on 10 carries but he had just one carry in the entire second half.

If Arizona falls behind, Ingram won’t even be on the field. Hence why he only played 37% of the snaps last week. The RB snap counts suggest Emeri Demercado should have been involved more, and he probably should have been. He dominated the snaps with the Cardinals down big, but he was just not targeted. His role just didn’t change without James Conner as the receiving third-down back.

My Picks:

  • Seahawks -8.5 (-105 BetMGM)
  • Over 44.5 (-110 BetMGM)

My Props:

Kansas City Chiefs (KC) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (LAC) – Chargers (-5.5)

Death, taxes, Chiefs offense continuously being overrated at home. The total rests at 48 points and the trends in Kansas City games lean towards the under. Patrick Mahomes is 10-3 toward the under at home over his last 13 games (2-1 in the last three home games).

L.A. is 3-2 toward the under this year. One against the Dolphins and one in overtime. But since those games, it’s been three straight unders.

I’ll continue to ride the under train.

Still, keeping the game low-scoring doesn’t suggest the Chargers will cover.  LA is 2-3 ATS this season and it’s by razor-thin margins.

And although KC’s offense struggled against the Broncos’ atrocious defense in Week 6, I’ll chalk that up to a short prep, weird Thursday night contest. Andy Reid with extra time to prepare for the Chargers – who are playing on a short week after losing Monday night – remains undefeated.

The Chargers are facing the 2nd-most red-zone trips per game on defense this season. 31st in passing yards per attempt allowed on defense. Probably a solid get-right spot for the Chiefs.

Meanwhile, the Chargers were held to season-low yardage and point total in Week 6 versus Dallas. KC’s defense has been fierce this season, ranking 9th overall in DVOA and 6th in pass defense DVOA.

On the player props side of things, go right back to Keenan Allen. He gets out of bed averaging 6-plus receptions per game, hitting that mark in 3 of 5 games this season. The one poor game was against the Raiders starting a rookie QB when Justin Herbert broke a finger on his non-throwing hand. Back the volume monster in Allen in a projected high-scoring affair. KC ranks 7th in total targets faced by WRs this season.

On the KC side, we have to back unders on these WRs even in a plus-matchup. The addition of Mecole Hardman makes it less likely that either Skyy Moore or Kadarius Toney get decent usage. Both WRs have already been finishing consistently under the projected receiving totals on a weekly basis.

Toney at least gets targeted when he’s on the field, but that’s not the case with Moore and his 14% target rate per route run. He’s gone under for three straight games, and I think that continues in Week 7. Moore went over 30 receiving yards twice in 10 games played with Hardman in 2022.

My Picks:

  • Chiefs -5.5 (-110 BetMGM)
  • Under 48 (-110 DraftKings)

My Props:

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Denver Broncos (DEN) vs. Green Bay Packers (GB) – Broncos (+1)

Why did the Chiefs struggle against the Broncos defense? Well, besides the fact that it was a weird Thursday night game between divisional rivals, I think it’s more related to the lack of big-play upside on the Chiefs offense. Because big plays are what have killed the Broncos defense this season.

They are tied for second in explosive pass plays allowed per game this season.

KC offense has struggled to generate massive, big plays with their current personnel. But I hardly think that will be the case with Green Bay’s offense, which is dying to hit splash plays downfield between Jordan Love and Christian Watson

Watson’s aDOT in Week 5 before the bye week was an absurd 26.7 yards downfield. Love ranks 4th in deep-ball pass rate this season but has completed just 25% of those throws (4th-lowest). I’d bet this team cashes in on regression in the form of big downfield plays against a beatable defense.

I also expect Love to be kept upright, more so than he has been the last few weeks. The Broncos rank 31st in pressure rate generated. 7 of Love’s 8 TDs have come from a clean pocket this season.

Given the bye week, this team should also be much healthier across the offensive line between Zach Tom and Jon Runyan, along with the secondary between Rudy Ford and Jaire Alexander.

This will present challenges for Russell Wilson. The Packers defense has allowed just one passing TD per game to opposing QBs (the 5th-lowest percentage of passing TDs faced) and fewer than 250 passing yards. Only one QB has scored more than 20-plus fantasy points against them, and it took Desmond Ridder earning a rushing touchdown to get there.

Wilson’s “hot streak” came to an end on Thursday night from an efficiency standpoint, and I am afraid that trend is going to continue.

So as always, fade the overrated Broncos. 0-6 versus the spread. 1-5 straight up, with their only win coming against a Bears team in a game they should have lost.

Wilson is a combined 11-23 in his last 34 games.

The only way I can see the Broncos putting up a legitimate fight here is through their ground game. The Packers run defense is bad – 26th in run defense DVOA – but a strong run game doesn’t always translate into a ton of real-life points.

Take the Packers on the ML.

As for the total, Denver has been one of the over-machines this season. The Broncos went over its projected total in four straight games with all games eclipsing at least 52 points before last Thursday night’s game. Since Nathaniel Hackett was fired at the end of 2022, Denver is 6-2 toward the over, with the Broncos averaging nearly 25 points per game on offense. The Packers are 3-2 toward the over this season (2-1 on the road).

On a slate where there are unders as far as the eyes can see, I actually do like the over in this particular spot. Both defenses rank inside the top-7 in explosive plays allowed per game through both the pass game and the run game.

For props, take the layup with Christian Watson at 49.5 receiving yards. Watson’s aDOT in Week 5 before the bye week was an absurd 26.7 yards downfield. Watson and Luke Musgrave tied for the team lead with 7 targets a piece (24% Target share). Musgrave caught 6 for 34 yards, while Watson flashed his big-play upside with a 77-yard grab on one of his 3 catches with an absurd 177 air yards, 73% air-yard share).

Love ranks 4th in deep-ball pass rate this season but has completed just 25% of those throws (4th-lowest). I’d bet this team cashes in on regression in the form of big downfield plays against a beatable defense.

Also love the over on Musgrave. He’s gone OVER 33.5 receiving yards in 3 of his healthy 4 games played this season. No team has allowed more catches or yards to tight ends than the Broncos.

For the Broncos, we are going back to the under on Courtland Sutton. Hit last Thursday night and I expect the trend to continue. The Packers rank 5th in the fewest fantasy pts per game allowed to perimeter WRs this season. 5th fewest receiving yards allowed per game to WRs. Sutton has been under 48.5 receiving yards in 4 of 6 games this year including his last 3 games played.

At the same time, you want to be on the over for Javonte Williams’ rushing yardage. He’s been 42-plus in all his games played this year and the matchup is divine.

My Picks:

  • Packers ML (-115 BetMGM)
  • Over 45 (-110 DraftKings)

My Props:

Philadelphia Eagles (PHI) vs. Miami Dolphins (MIA) – Dolphins (+3)

We are entering uncharted territory with yet another game that wants to be an over bet. It’s Sunday Night Football at it’s finest between two of the top offenses in the league.

Miami is 4-2 toward the over this season. The unders came against the league’s worst scoring offenses in the Patriots/Giants. They are both averaging 12 or fewer points per game.

The Eagles rank 5th in points per game overall and 3rd in points per game at home. Both of their home games have resulted in 60-plus points.

Bet the over in what should be a WILD shootout. These teams rank first and second respectively in total yards per game.

Philly struggled last week against the Jets’ top-tier red zone defense. Miami ranks 26th in red zone defense. As do the Eagles.

And although the Eagles boast a fierce pass rush, it is beyond useless if Tua Tagovailoa is getting the ball faster than any other quarterback this season.

From a sides perspective, I’d rather just stay away and just enjoy the offensive fireworks show. Probably just take the Dolphins with the +3 in a game that I think will easily be decided by a final field goal.

Jaylen Waddle made a significant impact in Week 6, with 7 receptions for 51 yards, and a touchdown reception (9 targets, 30% Target share). Two more red-zone targets as the team is clearly trying to get him usage when they close in on scoring.

Buy low on Waddle. The eruption game is coming. 9-plus targets in back-to-back weeks to go along with an average of 6 receptions. Bet the over on his 4.5 receptions prop. The Eagles rank 5th in catches allowed per game to WRs.

My Picks:

  • Over 51.5 (-110 BetMGM)
  • Dolphins +3 (-115 BetMGM)

My Props:

Minnesota Vikings (MIN) vs. San Francisco 49ers (SF) – Vikings (+7)

This spread line is not nearly high enough.

The Minnesota Vikings should have lost last week to the Bears who were forced to start their second-string QB with zero NFL experience. Meanwhile, the sky is falling on the SF 49ers because they finally “lost” with Brock Purdy. Even though they were facing the NFL’s top defense on the road in the rain, and their kicker happened to miss two FGs in the 2-point loss.

Buy. The. Dip.

Minnesota’s offense looked incompetent against the Bears defense without Justin Jefferson. They couldn’t run the ball at all and totaled their worst offensive/yardage output (220 yards, 4 yards per play).

2 for 13 on third downs. Woof. And against the Bears all of teams who entered Week 6 as the worst defense on third downs this season. Even after they shut out the Vikings, they still rank last in third down conversion rate allowed on defense this season. Double woof.

I don’t care if Christian McCaffrey plays, if Deebo Samuel plays etc.

This is an EASY buy-low spot on the 49ers versus the Vikings.

The 49ers are STILL the best team in the league and have been beating teams by MORE than 8 points easily – regardless of where they play.

SF is 4-2 toward the under this year, with the overs against teams that boasted somewhat functioning offenses.

Hardly say the Vikings offense will deliver a normal functioning performance based on how they played without Jefferson in Week 6. Not to mention the prime-time narrative around Kirk Cousins. This one could be a blood bath.

For props, Brandon Aiyuk overs. Guy has averaged 91 receiving yards per game this season. He owns a top-10 Target share (30%) and a league-leading 54% air-yard share this season. Only Cooper Kupp ranks higher in total weighted opportunity than Aiyuk this season. With Deebo Samuel nursing an injury and Christian McCaffrey also banged up, expect all the targets to flow through Aiyuk.

And no better spot to back him than against Minnesota who has allowed the third-most receiving yards and most catches to WRs this season.

My Picks:

  • 49ers -6.5 (-115 BetMGM)
  • Under 44 (-110 FanDuel Sportsbook)

My Props:

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