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NFL Betting Primer: Top Picks & Player Prop Bets for Every Game (Week 8)

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Introducing the Week 8 edition of the NFL Betting primer, proudly brought to you by BettingPros! I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m thrilled to be your guide as we delve into each game on the NFL slate. Here, you’ll find expert insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and enticing player props that could pave the way for impressive single-game parlays. Note that early in the week, the props can be limited to Underdog and PrizePicks, until normal sportsbooks release their player props closer to Sunday.

Before we dive into Week 8, let’s take a moment to reflect on the performance in Week 7 and overall.

Below is the official record on the recommended picks from Week 7 (not including Thursday night football).

It was a “mid” week as the kids say. 22-26 overall.

Props were slightly up overall, but zero 1st TD calls

Totals and spreads also faltered.

Through 7 weeks we are sitting at .500. Considering this is my first official season handicapping/betting every single game, I am overall pleased with a .500 record. Helps me understand what’s worked and what hasn’t. Nearing the halfway point of the season, we can look at the remaining regular season as a new and clean slate. Let’s start with a heater.

And newly featured this week, I will feature my top bets listed at the top between underdogs, favorites and O/Us. Consider it a quick-hitting guide to access my top plays.

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Week 7

  • Spread: 4-7
  • Totals: 5-7
  • Player Props: 13-11
  • ML: 0-1

Overall: 22-26

2023 season

  • Spread: 38-47 (45%)
  • Totals: 54-42 (63%)
  • Player Props: 96-100 (49%)
  • ML: 4-3

Overall: 189-189

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NFL Quick Hitters

Top favorites:

  • Cowboys – 6
  • Eagles – 7
  • Lions – 7.5
  • Seahawks -3.5

Top underdogs:

  • Bengals +4.5
  • Titans +2.5
  • Bears +8.5
  • Steelers +2.5

Top totals:

  • CAR/HOU Under 43.5
  • ATL/TEN Under 35.5
  • JAX/PIT Under 41
  • MIN/GB Under 42
  • NYJ/NYG Under 36.5
  • BAL/ARI Under 44.5
  • CIN/SF Over 43.5

NFL Betting Primer: Week 8

Dallas Cowboys vs. Los Angeles Rams (+6.5)

We have another crop of bye week teams coming back this week, starting with the Dallas Cowboys. Teams coming off bye weeks have struggled thus far, combining for 2-5 record straight up and against the spread. 1-3 after Week 6 and 1-1 after Week 7.

Dallas is coming off a huge Monday night victory versus the Chargers in Week 6, where they got contributions from both sides of the ball. It was the rare game that we saw a complete effort from Dallas in a “normal” game environment, as most of their contests were one-sided (for better or for worse).

Still, Dallas’ record at 4-2 is no fluke, even amid their offensive struggles in the red zone (26th in red zone efficiency).

The Rams are allowing the league’s lowest passing TD percentage but below a below-average red zone defense (19th) and the league’s highest rushing TD percentage at a whopping 69%. Last week the Steelers’ offense went a perfect 3-for-3 in the red zone against the Rams. It was the Steelers’ best offensive output of the season, and they also happened to be coming off a bye week like Dallas is this week. Pittsburgh ranked dead last in red zone conversion rate entering Week 7…

Ergo, this is the perfect spot for Dallas’ offense to get things correct in the red zone, particularly with Tony Pollard. The Cowboys RB1 ranks 1st in the NFL in red zone touches per game. He only has 2 TDs where his expected TD output is closer to seven touchdowns. This is the perfect regression spot for Pollard to blow up and get Dallas’ offense cooking. Pollard has the second-shortest 1st TD prop odds in Week 8. with 21% implied probability. 2 of LA’s 3 1st TDs allowed this season have been RB rushing scores.

LA has been super inconsistent all year long, as they seemingly can only put together 30 minutes of solid football any given Sunday. Their run defense ranks 24th in DVOA, which won’t be favorable against a Cowboys team that wants to run the football.

Against offenses not named the Arizona Cardinals or injury-ravened Seahawks/Bengals, the Rams have allowed no less than 23 points on defense this season. Only in one game have they allowed fewer than 300 yards of offense. Dallas is 3-1 ATS when they accumulate 300-plus yards on offense and perfect 4-0 ATS when they score 20 points on offense.

Offensively, the Rams have posted strong yardage totals 350-plus in back-to-back games. But they have averaged just 21.5 points per game. Dallas’ defense has had similar up-and-down performances this season, but a bye week to prepare ahead for the Rams plays in their favor, as it did for the Steelers.

Simply put, if a completely overrated and fraudulent Steelers team could come away with a 7-point victory on the road versus the Rams – deservedly so or not – a vastly more complete Dallas team should take care of business versus L.A. The Cowboys have won each of their last 10 home games.

Dallas has the advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball and also has the luxury of playing at home. In their only home games this season, they have dominated their opponents by a combined 68-13-point margin. And they start fast ranking only behind KC/MIA in points scored in the first half.

For the total, Dallas is 3-3 toward the under this year. Again, the Rams have been the tale of two halves, and would likely need a full four quarters to effectively score enough points to get this over the 45.5-point total. The Cowboys’ pass rush will have its moments and stall drives. Even with Cooper Kupp back the last three weeks, the Rams are 3-0 toward the under.

Considering the total at 45.5 I am strongly leading toward the under. Dallas is more than happy to take the pedal off the gas late in games to “protect” leads.

Rams and Cowboys have combined for the exact same average total this season at 42.3 points.

Darrell Henderson Jr. started in Week 7 and ran the ball 18 times for 61 yards, averaging 3.4 yards per carry, and scored 1 touchdown in the red zone (2 targets). Logged 3 total red-zone opportunities and 57% of the snaps. Royce Freeman carried the ball 12 times for 66 yards, averaging 5.5 yards per carry and did not score a touchdown. 43% snap share. Those two RBs switched off the drives. Henderson had 9 carries in the first half to Freeman’s 7. It likely will be a split backfield till Kyren Williams returns.

But until that time comes, I’d be sure to make sure Henderson is not available on waivers. However, as I have preached with all Rams RBs this season…none of these guys are made for the long haul. Sean McVay churns through RBs like fantasy managers on the waiver wire. So, what’s the move? Smash the under.

Remember, the Steelers were a favorable matchup for RBs. Dallas will present a MUCH tougher challenge in Week 8. 5 of the last 6 RBs they have faced have gone under their projected rushing yards totals. Just 3 guys have gone over 50 yards. Considering how fragile Henderson’s role in the offense might be, easy under to HAMMER.

And also need to consider that Myles Gaskin might be added to the mix next week after being a healthy scratch. Consider me very skeptical that an RB off the couch can be a true difference-maker. He’s never been able to stay healthy and recall that the Rams outright cut him last November despite him leading the team in rushing yards. I went down the retread RB rode with Cam Akers this year and I will not be fooled again by McVay.

Pair the under with Matthew Stafford’s under 23.5 pass completions. Been under this number in 4 of 7 games, including three straight with Cooper Kupp back in the lineup. Every QB Dallas has faced this season has gone UNDER their completions prop.

My Picks:

My Props:

Carolina Panthers (+3.5) vs. Houston Texans

Both teams are coming off bye weeks, so one team will, unfortunately, continue the trend of teams losing post-bye weeks. The line suggests it will be the 0-6 Panthers, who are three-point underdogs at home against rookie of the year favorite, C.J. Stroud, and his plucky Texans squad.

Houston’s last game action was a big win versus an overrated Saints team. Stroud is firing on all cylinders with the OL fully healthy. In his last 2 games played, Stroud has been the 4th-least pressured QB.

Carolina is middle of the road in pressure rate generated. Stroud ranks third in passing TDs from a clean pocket his season and 5th in passer rating. The Panthers have allowed 2-plus passing TDs in three straight games.

And if the Texans aren’t doing damage through the air, be confident they can get it done on the ground. Carolina ranks 2nd in missed tackles on defense. That’s Dameon Pierce’s calling card as it is for YAC WR god Nico Collins. Expect Houston’s operation ground and pound to be extremely productive between both Pierce and Devin Singletary. Carolina is also the only defense to allow three 1st TDs to opposing RBs this season.

But it’s not the only running game I think that can do damage. Houston ranks first in missed tackles on defense. Keep in mind that both these defenses lead the league in missed tackles, respectively, despite playing one fewer game than most teams. Sloppy football on both sides.

Carolina showed signs of life in their rushing attack over their last two games, averaging 100-plus yards on the ground. They have gone away from Miles Sanders in favor of a more efficient Chuba Hubbard with solid results. Would expect similar split usage in favor of Hubbard out of the bye week.

The Panthers offense is a bit of an unknown in what to expect out of their bye week, with Thomas Brown taking over play-calling duties. Any change seems likely to result in a positive – nowhere to go but up – but I still think there are growing pains to go through.

Keep in mind that Brown stems from the Sean McVay coaching tree from his days spent in Los Angeles. Texans head coach Demeco Ryans was the DC in SF from 2021-2022, so he’s familiar with an offensive approach that Brown is likely to roll out…having seen the Rams offense very frequently. Those Rams-SF games were mostly dominated by the SF defenses.

Therefore, I’ll continue to back the Texans with the superior QB and defense even on the road. Houston is 4-0 versus the spread over their last four games. All 3 of their wins have been by 7-plus points.

Meanwhile, Carolina has played within a field goal just once all season. However, the fact that Frank Reich has been so good after the bye week, and the fact that Carolina has kept games closer at home…I think I am going to settle on the Panthers +3.5 if I were to pick a side.

As for the total, Carolina is 2-0 toward the under at home (average of 35.5 points) as their defense has played better than on the road. The Texans have gone under in three of their last four games, which all featured them playing offenses that are averaging fewer than 20 points per game.

Both teams WANT to establish the run – negative pass rate over expectation – suggesting the under is the play on the total.

Texans are allowing the 5th-fewest receiving yards per game to WRs (140.5). They are getting back starting slot CB Tavierre Thomas who might be able to slow down Adam Thielen. Thielen has run 73% of his routes from the slot this season.

Tank Dell has a 27% target rate against zone coverage this season, which Carolina primarily deploys. Think this a spot where he catches four-plus balls coming out of the team’s bye week.

My Picks:

My Props:

Green Bay Packers (+1.5) vs.  Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings absolutely cooked those hoping for the 49ers to bounce back on Monday Night Football. Kirk Cousins was ALL PRIME TIME winning straight up despite being 7-point home underdogs.

Minnesota has been a rollercoaster ride to handicap correctly this season because all their games have been decided by one possession. They have obviously been on the short end of the stick in one-score games most of this season – after running hotter than the sun in that category last season – but eventually, they’d pick up a few wins/covers along the way.

A divisional matchup at the Green Bay Packers will surely be another close contest suggested by the 1-point spread that is essentially a pick ‘em based on where you shop. Some books have Minnesota favored by one point while others have GB favored. Note that Minnesota opened as a favorite.

The best odds you can get (at the time of this writing) is GB +1.5 (-120 FanDuel).

The public perception and recency bias easily backs Minnesota in this spot after their massive win on Monday Night Football. The Packers haven’t looked good since Week 1 when they faced the Bears. They are losers of 3 straight (two-by-one-score games) and their only other win came in a miraculous comeback versus the Saints.

The offense has regressed immensely with Jordan Love at the helm. However, they did start to heat up in the second half versus Denver scoring on three of their final four drives. They also were in a position to take the lead in the game (which they should have already had had they not missed an FG earlier), but Love was intercepted.

And ultimately, that’s where I want to make my bets on this game. Avoid the sides because it’s such a coin-flip matchup.

I am much more interested in betting the total. We’ve seen the Vikings play much worse on the road offensively in their last two road games against two pretty bad defenses between the Panthers/Bears.

Both games went under as a result.

The Packers’ defense has allowed just one passing TD per game to opposing QBs (the 9th-lowest percentage of passing TDs faced) and fewer than 250 passing yards. Only one QB has scored more than 20-plus fantasy points against them, and it took Desmond Ridder earning a rushing touchdown to get there.

Given that GB has gone under its projected total in 3 of its last four games. I heavily lean toward the under at 41.5 points.

Each of the Vikings’ last five games has gone UNDER the total points line.

And although I want to avoid picking a side – it’s going to be a sweaty bet – I’d just buy the dip on the Packers at home with the +1.5.

Minnesota’s not a team you want to bet on emerging victorious in one-score games with regression not on their side based on last year’s results.

GB is more likely to come out the positive side of a one-score contest based on their 1-3 record in one-possession games this season, including their last two losses.

The home team has covered the spread in each of the last four games between the Vikings and Packers.

As for props, we have to aim for WR overs on the Packers’ side of the football. Minnesota has allowed the most receptions per game to opposing WRs. 6th in receiving yards allowed per game.

My Picks:

My Props:

New York Giants vs. New York Jets (-3)

The Battle of the Big Apple is ON. And it’s another spot where Las Vegas is throwing their hands up with another close spread with no home-field advantage apparent. The Jets are favored by 3 points on an essentially neutral field coming off the bye week after a massive Week 6 win versus the Eagles. Winners of two in a row in fact.

Again, not sure if the bye week is improperly feeding into the line in favor of Gang Green even though teams coming off the bye week have struggled. Meanwhile, the Giants are heating up with impressive back-to-back outings, especially on the defensive side of the football.

They shut down two offenses that have had no issues putting up points this season between the Bills/Commanders. I liked the Giants last week at +3, and they came through. Their defense is finally generating turnovers. Recipe for success against Zach Wilson.

Especially against a blitz-heavy scheme. Against the blitz this season, Wilson is PFF’s 29th-graded QB among 34 qualifiers.

The Jets have also lost each of their last three games as favorites.

For totals, just go back to the basics.

The Giants are 6-1 toward the under this season. The Jets are 3-3. 7 games have been played at MetLife Stadium this season. 6 unders. One over.

It’s the anti-Coors Field.

Bet the under with two defensive-led teams waging war with offenses that want to run the football. The Giants will feed Saquon Barkley and the Jets will feed Breece Hall. Great for ball control and grinding out wins. But not for consistently hitting overs.

Hall should be able to post strong rushing numbers versus one of the league’s worst run defenses in terms of explosive rushing plays allowed on defense.

Breece Hall has the shortest first TD odds in Week 8. Adds up. Both Giants/Jets have allowed the 1st TD scored in 6 games this season.

Although Big Blue has allowed four of those scores as passing TDs to WRs. Maybe a Garrett Wilson leverage play here at +675.

On props, under Zach Wilson’s passing yards. One time this year he has surpassed 199.5 passing yards (83.3%).

My Picks:

My Props:

Miami Dolphins (-8.5) vs. New England Patriots

This has to be a massive letdown spot for the New England Patriots…right? They head down to South Beach, which has consistently been more of a House of Horrors for the New England faithful rather than any type of vacation.

Miami is 4-3 toward the over this season. The unders came against the league’s worst scoring offenses in the Patriots/Giants and recently on Sunday Night Football versus the Eagles (48 points came under the 52-point closing line).

We saw this game play out in Week 2 to an under with a final score of 24-17. And up until last week’s offensive resurgence against the Buffalo Bills, that was one of the more productive outings New England had on offense.

Buffalo’s injuries on defense gave New England’s offense a boost, but so did their offensive line FINALLY getting healthy. Cole Strange was back in the lineup for the first time since Week 3. Mike Onwenu was back after missing Week 6. Explosive rookie WR Demario Douglas was healthy.

And I think New England can roll over similar offensive success, building off last week’s game. Their offense – shockingly – has struggled the most in between the 20s, while being much improved in the red zone. They rank fourth in red zone efficiency this season. Now, part of that is a small sample – they hardly have a timeshare parked in the opponent’s red zone this year – but it is encouraging they are converting when they do get close to scoring. Miami’s red-zone defense ranks 27th this season.

And don’t overlook the fact that this Patriots defense is a different unit than the one Miami played on the road in Week 2. Matt Judon and Christian Watson aren’t healthy. And their defense still gave up 339 yards of offense and 25 points to the Bills even in a winning effort. The Pats’ defense has allowed nearly 27 points per game in their last three contests.

The way I see it, the over is the move to make with multiple paths to succession. Miami’s offense can handle the leg work as they have done in all their home games against inferior opponents. Perfect 3-0 ATS including two double-digit covers. All overs.

And the Patriots offense should be able to do enough on their end as well to get this game over the projected total. I ultimately side with Miami at -8.5 – never bet on NE in Miami – as Mac Jones is notoriously bad ATS as an underdog. At home, it worked versus Buffalo. On the road versus Miami? No thanks.

The Dolphins have covered the spread in each of their last six games against the Patriots.

The Patriots will do everything in their power to shut down opposing No. 1s.

They did so versus Tyreek Hill in Week 2, and I think they will do the same in Week 8 as Hill battles through a hip injury. As scary as it is to bet an under on Hill, I think that’s the move to make. Conversely, bet the over on Jaylen Waddle’s receiving yards prop. Two of Waddle’s highest receiving yardage games (86, 63) have come when Hill has been held under 100 receiving yards.

My Picks:

My Props:

Tennessee Titans vs. Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)

When these lines first came out, the Titans as 1-point home underdogs immediately jumped out to me. Then the line moved to Titans +2.5 as money poured in on the Atlanta Falcons with the Titans dealing with question marks at QB. Ryan Tannehill is not expected to start, and the plan is to use both Malik Willis and Will Levis.

Still, I want to back Mike Vrabel’s squad at home. Vrabel has this certain aura around him in full Mike Tomlin fashion that he wills his way to win games that his team has no position winning. With the recent Kevin Byard trade, the headline with the Titans team is they are tanking/selling, etc. Nobody wants to back this team.

Buy.

This team plays vastly differently at home than it does on the road. 27 points per game at home with wins against the Chargers/Bengals.

And as I noted last week, the Atlanta Falcons and Desmond Ridders are also a completely different team on the road than at home. Obviously, Ridder and company came away with the win, but they were BEGGING to give the Buccaneers the win/cover. Ridder turned the ball over three times in the red zone.

And the Titans’ strengths of run defense can force Ridder to have to beat them, which should have worked last week for the Buccaneers. However, there’s no denying that Ridder’s fourth-ranked turnover-worthy play rate (15 total this season, tied for 1st) suggests that the Titans should come away with the turnover battle.

In 5 games without Ryan Tannehill last season, the Titans went 3-2 ATS, 4-1 toward the under.

Atlanta is 6-1 toward the under this season. If it ain’t broke don’t fix it. Ridder on the road is an under machine – 6-0 toward the under in 6 career road starts. And the combination of Levis/Willis taking sack after sack will limit any ceiling the Titans offense will have against an underrated Falcons defense. 5th best red zone unit and the third-best third-down conversion rate.

Over on Jonnu Smith’s receiving yards prop. The Buccaneers are tough on tight ends, hence the under on Smith last week. He saw three targets on the opening drive and was then never heard of again. That’s despite him hitting the over in every game he has played as a starter this season. Look for the Falcons to expose the Titans secondary that will be without safety Kevin Byard after he was traded to the Eagles.

My Picks:

My Props:

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Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)

It’s our second rematch in the Week 8 slate as these teams met back in Week 4 in Philadelphia. The Commanders gave Philly all they could handle, matching the Eagles punch-for-punch offensively. Ultimately, they fell just short of victory, losing in OT 34-31. The Eagles got the win, but the Commanders got the cover on a 9-point spread.

Fast forward to this week, and Philly is favored by a touchdown on the road.

But as I have voiced every single week regarding the Commanders, it’s still all about turnovers.

When they have failed ATS they have combined for 10 offensive turnovers. In the 3 games they have covered, 0 turnovers on offense.

The Commanders had zero turnovers when they first played the Eagles. Consider me very skeptical that they can repeat those efforts. Especially with their defense unable to slow down the Eagles’ high-powered offense that ranks fourth in points per game. Their fatal flaw has been in the red zone, but it’s improved over their last 3 games.

Still, any red-zone inefficiencies for the Eagles would likely push toward the under, as I likely will side with. Philly is 4-0 toward the under on the road this season, with Washington 2-1 toward the under at home.

We typically get less scoring in the second game of divisional opponents, so don’t hold your breath for another shootout. Not with sack machine Sam Howell leading the charge for the Commanders, facing a defense that ranks first in pressures.

Seven of the Commanders’ last eight home games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Speaking of under…

Jahan Dotson’s receiving yards. Woof. The Under hit 5/7 this season at a line of 34.5. Failed to eclipse this number against the Eagles back in Week 4. He only has 40-plus receiving yards twice this season.

Brian Robinson UNDER 10.5 carries. Another woof.  Been under this number in four of his last five games. The Eagles are allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to RBs while facing the league’s lowest rush play rate. Washington ranks third in pass rate over expectation.

The Commander’s backfield is also starting to morph into a three-headed monster between B-Rob, Antonio Gibson and Chris Rodriguez. BRob has totaled 24 carries for 64 yards in the last 3 games as a result. Rodriguez led the team in rushing last week.

My Picks:

My Props:

Indianapolis Colts (+1.5) vs. New Orleans Saints

The unstoppable force versus the immovable object. The Colts have been an OVER machine this season, with their two “unders” coming in Gardner Minshew’s first start in a rainy game in Baltimore and in the Titans matchup where Anthony Richardson got knocked out early. Still, both games ended with 39-plus points scored.

All the other five games they have played have gone over the total because of the chaotic nature of Gardner Minshew in an offense that has benefited from big plays that have generated points on both sides (especially last week). In Week 7, the Colts and Browns combined for 11 plays of 20-plus yards. 8 came from Indy’s offense. They had 4 the week prior, with an average of 6 the previous two weeks.

Minshew leads all QBs in turnover-worthy plays despite not even being the team’s starter to open the year. That has created short fields for the opposition which again resulted in more points across the board.

Still in this matchup, I think I shy more with the immovable object in the Saints defense. They didn’t play elite versus Jacksonville, giving up season-highs in yards/points at home. But they’ve generated turnovers in all their games and have often played things tight. Hence, their 6-1 record toward the under this year – the one over coming last week versus the Jaguars. That despite the Saints entering that game 12-0 toward the under in their previous 12 games and Derek Carr boasting a 9-3 record toward the under. Updated now to 12-1 and 9-4 respectively.

Each of the Saints’ last nine road games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Ultimately, neither of these QBs is playing particularly good football, which has me leaning back toward the under as a bet against two bad QBs that have not been efficient whatsoever. Yards are great, but until they translate into consistent points, unders will continue to prevail.

Considering the Colts’ two unders have come against two under machines in the Ravens/Titans, I’d say the Saints fit a similar criterion to drag this game down under the 43.5-point total.

As for sides, I don’t like either. Would likely settle on the Saints coming off extra rest, against a super chaotic Minshew. A lot of what they did last week is baked into this line when a lot of the reliance on explosive plays is somewhat unsustainable.

And although I hate the Saints’ offense with Derek Carr at the helm, the Colts’ pass defense is a mess. And passing volume alone should at least get them an FG victory. Their back-to-back losses have come in one-score defeats, despite them posting 400-plus yards of offense.

Michael Pittman had 5 targets and caught 2 passes for 83 yards in Week 7. Caught a 75-yarder late in the game. The Saints are allowing the 5th-fewest fantasy pointsts to perimeter WRs this season. It’s a better matchup for Josh Downs in the slot. Pittman has also not posted overly encouraging numbers against man coverage this season. Made the big play last week, but I wouldn’t bet on that two weeks in a row. Take the under.

But take the over on Alvin Kamara’s reception prop at 4.5. 19 catches in his last two games. Derek Carr is a check-down KING.

My Picks:

My Props:

Pittsburgh Steelers (+2) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

We can’t let Mike Tomlin keep getting away with this. The Steelers are overrated. We all know it. They get outplayed, but somehow come away with wins and covers in tough spots.

They are 4-2 because of their defense. They’ve created turnovers at just the right time to beat teams like the Browns, Raiders, Rams, and Ravens despite being outgained in yardage in Every. Single. Game. They have played this season.

Eventually, things will catch up to them. But will it be in Week 8 at home versus the Jaguars? Who knows. But I’d hardly say I feel any confidence backing the Jags -2.5 on the road with Tomlin the king of underdog covers in Pittsburgh. The Steelers are 5-2-1 as home dogs over the past three seasons. 2-1 this season.

The Steelers have won seven of their last eight games as underdogs. The Steelers have covered the spread in eight of their last 10 games.

Rather just bet the under. Pittsburgh is 5-1 toward the under this season for reasons I’ve already laid out. Defense and turnovers. The one time they hit the over it came against the Browns. That game featured two defensive TDs and a 71-yard TD pass from the Steelers. It is still the most points they have scored in a game this season.

Each of the Steelers’ last four games has gone UNDER the total points line.

Both teams have top-10 neutral rushing rates, which suggests more long sluggish drives and not a ton of points. Jacksonville is strong versus the run: Top-3 in the fewest rushing yards per game and 11th in expected points added in run defense.

The Jaguars’ defense doesn’t allow many big plays – 3rd fewest overall per game – which the Steelers will gladly accept to keep things tight. Runs on early downs and a cloud of dust will take center stage for the Steelers’ offense in Week 8. Can’t wait.

Still, I like the over on Pickett’s passing yardage prop set at 216.5 passing yards. Gone over that number in 5 of 6 games, including both games with Diontae Johnson back in the starting lineup. Every QB the Jaguars have faced this season has gone OVER their projected passing yards total.

I also like the over on Jaylen Warren’s receptions prop. He was unusually not involved as a receiver last week, but I’d expect him to bounce back. His sample size as a receiver is too large. 3 catches in all games outside last week. And the Jaguars have been an RB-receiving frenzy. Every RB they have faced this season has hit the “over” on their respective receptions prop.

Take the over on Christian Kirk. He’s gone over this number against every team this year not named the Indianapolis Colts with their start slot CB Kenny Moore giving Kirk fits this season. The Steelers are also HORRIBLE versus slot receivers. 32nd in fantasy points per game allowed to WRs in the slot.

My Picks:

My Props:

Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) vs. Cleveland Browns

Has the Browns’ defense been exposed? Not really. They gave up an uncharacteristic number of big plays to the Colts in Week 7. 8 of 20-plus yards. So, I’d hardly view this spot as favorable for the Seattle Seahawks, even at home.  The Seahawks were in a smash spot last week at home to destroy an Arizona Cardinals horrible defense but ended with just 20 points.

However, it’s PJ Walker drawing another start. So, it’s difficult to back the Browns moving the ball effectively on offense.  In the last two games, Walker is PFF’s lowest-graded QB from a clean pocket. 51.3 passer rating. Woof.

And the Seahawks have the run defense to stop the Browns run game, that will be without Jerome Ford. Their rush defense is stout – 3.2 yards per carry allowed, 6th fewest rushing yards allowed per game – allowing just 2.9 yards per carry to opposing RBs. An average of 20 carries faced for just 56 yards.

Seattle’s pass defense has improved dramatically since the start of the year, with their cornerbacks healthy on the outside. After allowing 300-plus passing yards in three straight games to open the year, they have allowed fewer than 250 passing yards in three straight games. All three games have ended with an under. The Browns are 4-2 toward the under this year.

Five of the Seahawks’ last six home games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Therefore, I like the Seahawks as three-point favorites at home. Since Week 2, Seattle has been 4-1 ATS and a perfect 2-0 ATS at home.

For props, I’ll lean into the fragility with Pierre Strong. He’s “projected” to have a role behind Kareem Hunt with Jerome Ford out. But to what extent is a total unknown. 35.5 rushing yards seems like a lot for a third-string RB to hit, especially in a matchup as bad as this. Under.

My Picks:

My Props:

Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-7)

The third rematch we have in Week 8 of divisional teams that have already squared off this season. We saw an extremely unusual performance from Denver and KC when they met a few Thursday nights ago, with Denver’s defense stifling the Chiefs’ offense in Kansas City.

The under hit swimmingly, while the Chiefs beat the Broncos (yet again), while pushing the 11-point spread with a 19-8 final.

I was on the over originally in that game with the closing line set at 47. Fast forward to this week and we have an 8-point spread (KC playing on the road) and an eerily close total at 46.5.

So as always, fade the overrated Broncos. 1-6 versus the spread. 2-5 straight up, with their only wins coming against a Bears team in a game they should have lost and another game versus GB they also easily could have lost in the final minutes.

KC’s defense has been fierce this season, ranking 5th overall in DVOA and 4th in pass defense DVOA.

I think the Chiefs can win by more than TD in this spot because I expect a much greater effort from their offense. The Broncos’ weakness is against explosive plays which KC did not take advantage of in their prior matchup. Patrick Mahomes’ aDOT was a season-low 4.8 yards downfield. Last week it was his second-highest mark at 9.4 yards versus the Chargers. I think they dial up more aggressive passes and expose the Broncos’ defense for what it truly is. Bad.

As for the total, Denver has been one of the over-machines this season. The Broncos went over its projected total in four straight games with all games eclipsing at least 52 points before their last two games. Since Nathaniel Hackett was fired at the end of 2022, Denver is 6-3 toward the over, with the Broncos averaging nearly 24 points per game on offense.

Pair the over with Javonte Williams OVER 10.5 carries. He has hit this mark in all his games that he has been 100% healthy for. Williams reclaimed RB1 duties last week carrying the ball 15 times for 82 yards, averaging 5.5 yards per carry, with a long run of 21 yards (53% snap share, season-high).

Also love the overs on Patrick Mahomes’ passing yards/attempts props. The Chiefs QB has gone over 34.5 attempts in five of seven games played this season including 40-plus over the last 3 games.

My Picks:

My Props:

Arizona Cardinals vs. Baltimore Ravens (-9.5)

Before last week, the Ravens were 5-1 toward the under. And the under almost came through versus the Lions had it not been for the offensive onslaught put on by Lamar Jackson and company. Would expect their offense to struggle more on the road – or be less efficient – in Arizona. Also, there is no guarantee that Josh Dobbs and company force the Ravens’ offense to score as much as they did in Week 7.

Dobbs falls into the tier of sub-par QB that the Ravens have been no strangers to facing this season, between two rookie QBs making their first starts an injured Joe Burrow, another backup QB in Gardner Minshew, Kenny Pickett (lol) and Ryan Tannehill/Malik Willis.

Simply put, when they don’t fear an opposing QB, the Ravens go under the game total.

Eight of the Ravens’ last nine games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.

And we know that Arizona won’t be scoring many points versus the Ravens, as they have come crashing down to Earth since a hot start. In the last three games, they rank dead last in points scored per game.

The average total of these two teams combined is 41.2, three points below the listed total.

They should be 0-4 versus the spread on the road this season, but they have faired better overall at home.

But since the plucky Josh Dobbs started the year 3-0 versus the spread (zero expectations) they have dropped four straight games ATS, losing by an average of 14.8 points.

Ravens are hot. Cardinals are not. Baltimore should be a perfect 4-0 versus the spread on the road. 3-1 only due to the Steelers’ loss where the WRs had a million drops.

But that all being said, we are approaching double-digit underdog territory with Arizona at +9.5 at home. Too rich for my blood. Again, stick to props and the under.

As an additional note, there is a chance that Kyler Murray will play in this game after practicing in full on Wednesday. No doubt Arizona will get some love if he starts/plays, which is why I’d wait on this number to play. Give you a better number on the Ravens, which I would very much prefer.

Remember, Murray was 4-8 as a starter last season. 6-6 ATS.

Props. Back to Zay Flowers overs. Arizona is allowing the 3rd-most receiving yards per game to WRs. Hit the over in 5/7 games this season.

Fade Trey McBride. He is going to start with Zach Ertz on IR. Do not care. The Ravens are a no-fly zone for tight ends. Baltimore gives up the 2nd fewest fantasy points to the TE position. 29 receiving yards per game.

My Picks:

My Props:

San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals

*Editor’s Note: On Saturday, Brock Purdy cleared the concussion protocol and is reportedly slated to start at QB*  

The line opened at SF -5.5, but it has since been bet in favor of the Bengals with Sam Darnold potentially starting Week 8 based on Brock Purdy entering the concussion protocol.

I was heavily in favor of fading the 49ers before the Purdy injury, projecting this spread closer to 2.5 points after the 49ers lost their second consecutive game to the Vikings on Monday Night Football. I waited thinking I could get a better number on the Bengals after SF won on Monday, but that ended up not being the case with them getting served by Kirk Cousins.

But even at 3.5, I still LOVE the Bengals in this spot. Their biggest issue has been health all season, and coming off the bye week we could see Joe Burrow operating at 100%. The 49ers’ biggest weakness remains their secondary, which has been exposed at times this season.

Meanwhile, the 49ers are way more banged up between their QB, Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams. And we cannot overlook how often Kyle Shanahan loses games when he doesn’t have the right QB under center. Currently, Kyle Shanahan is 21-32 without Jimmy Garoppolo since 2017.

The record rested at 9-29 until Purdy entered the picture.

I guarantee all week you will hear about how Sam Darnold can do exactly what Purdy has done in this offense. People love discrediting Mr. Irrelevant any chance they get. But look past that and what Darnold has done as a QB…which is not win games.

Even though he was solid ATS as the starter for Carolina last season (4-1 ATS). Although the one game he didn’t cover was the one he was favored in. He also went 4-1 toward the over.

I think Darnold can put up “numbers” that give the idea he’s as good as Purdy is. But when push comes to shove, I don’t think he puts this team over the top against Burrow. Again, this is Sam Darnold versus Joe Burrow. And Burrow isn’t the favorite.

Mentioned Darnold’s games last year leaned toward the over, and I love that in this game as well.

The 49ers are 2-1 toward the over at home this season. Average points per game have been 48.3 total points scored.

Parlay the game total over with an over on Tee Higgins. The 49ers rank 10th in fantasy points allowed per game to WRs and 6th to boundary WRs. Finally healthy, Higgins should get more involved in the Bengals’ offense. Higgins has a 62 receiving yards per game career average. Last year he averaged 64 receiving yards per game and went over 45.5 yards in 11 of 17 games played.

My Picks:

My Props:

Los Angeles Chargers (-8.5) vs. Chicago Bears

The Chargers are 2-4 ATS this year, and it’s been by razor-thin margins when they have covered. Asking a team with that profile to cover a large 8.5-point spread seems like a lot. The Chargers this season have not won a game this year by more than one score. The biggest win came versus an Aidan ‘O Connell-led Raiders team. 7 points to victory. Last season, they won three games by 10-plus points. They won 10 games overall. 30%.

The Chargers are also facing the 2nd-most red-zone trips per game on defense this season. 32nd in passing yards per attempt allowed on defense.

Meanwhile, the Bears backup QB Tyson Bagent has positioned his team to win outright in back-to-back weeks, winning Week 7 outright versus the Raiders. Facing a Chargers defense that ranks worse in DVOA than the Raiders defense should be no problem for the former Division II quarterback.

Not to mention, the Bears’ defense has played extremely well in their last two contests limiting opponents to under 20 points and 250 yards on offense. Just one TD was allowed in the last two games.

L.A. is also 4-2 toward the under this year. SoFi Stadium is 5-2 toward the under between the combined efforts of the Rams/Chargers.

One against the Dolphins and one in overtime. But since those games, it’s been four straight unders as the offense has spurted.

Chicago is 6-1 toward the over, with their only under coming after Fields got knocked out of their Week 6 contest.

Still, I’ll continue to ride the under train. The Bears are protecting their inexperienced quarterback with short safe throws that allow him to stay out of trouble.

For first TDs, look for the Bolts to strike first. In six of the Chargers’ last eight games, the first score has been a Chargers Touchdown.

Bet the under on Austin Ekeler’s rushing yardage prop. 49.5 he has been under in 80% of his last 5 games played.  The Bears’ run defense is ELITE. Same with Joshua Kelley. Got there last week with a massive run. That won’t happen two weeks in a row.

Another running back under with D’Onta Foreman. Roshon Johnson is expected to return for Chicago and potentially create a three-headed backfield as Foreman was already splitting work with Darrynton Evans. The Bears are also massive road dogs and the Chargers have allowed fewer than 35 yards to both Isiah Pacheco and Tony Pollard in back-to-back weeks.

But not all under. Rookie Tyler Scott has a connection with Bagent. Scott saw 29 air yards (52%) as the Bears operated very close to the LOS to protect their inexperienced QB in Week 7. What a novel idea. Scott had 2 carries and three targets (2 for 19). But back-to-back weeks where Bagent has looked for his fellow rookie. That chemistry should be enough to vault him over the 15.5 receiving yards mark.

My Picks:

My Props:

Detroit Lions vs. Las Vegas Raiders (+7.5)

The trends heavily favor the Lions in a major bounce-back spot at home. Detroit has been extremely profitable since the middle of last season, as they are 22-8 (73%) vs. the spread in games with 54 points or fewer scored since current offensive coordinator Ben Johnson took on a larger role in calling the offense.

The Lions’ offensive line is ranked No. 2 in PFF pass-blocking and is setting up Jared Goff for success every single week. I don’t anticipate much change versus a Raiders’ pass rush that ranks fourth worst in pressure rate. If they can neutralize Mad Maxx Crosby, Goff should be able to rebound. And if the passing game is ineffective, I am supremely confident that the Lions can run the football effectively as we saw the Raiders get destroyed against D’Onta Foreman just last week, as they have been all season by opposing RBs. 30th in expected points added in run defense this season.

The Raiders QB – whomever it may be – won’t be as lucky. The Lions’ defense has come ALIVE this season generating the fifth-most pressures and 8th-highest pressure rate. At the time of this writing, the Raiders are still unsure whether Jimmy Garoppolo will start for them. Tale as old as time.

O’Connell is better than Brian Hoyer, but it still won’t be enough versus the Lions at home.

On the totals side, the Lions are 4-3 toward the over this season. But the Raiders are 5-2 toward the under. I presume they go run-heavy with a rookie QB, even though the Lions’ strengths on defense are against the rushing attempts of running backs. Nothing new from Josh McDaniels and his bag of tricks.

For props, let’s keep it simple. Josh Reynolds has gone over 35.5 receiving yards in all but one game this season.

My Picks:

My Props:

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