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NFL Betting Primer: Top Picks & Player Prop Bets for Every Game (Week 9)

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Introducing the Week 9 edition of the NFL Betting primer, proudly brought to you by BettingPros! I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m excited to serve as your trusted guide through the upcoming NFL action. This week, we’ll explore each game on the Week 9 slate, offering expert insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and intriguing player props that have the potential to enhance your single-game parlays. Please note that early in the week, player props might be limited to platforms like Underdog and PrizePicks until traditional sportsbooks release their player props closer to Sunday. I’ll continue to add more props as I see fit/value leading up to Sunday, so be sure to come back close to kick-off for all the goodness in the player props market.

But before we dive into the Week 9 matchups, let’s pause for a moment to reflect on the Week 8 performances. Remember 8 weeks in, we were sitting at exactly .500.

Nearing the halfway point of the season, we started strong with a brand-new slate under our belts.

Below is the official record on the recommended picks from Week 8 (not including Thursday night football).

It was a strong week at 31-28 overall. Spreads were spot on, totals were 50/50 while the props let us down.

But still finished in the green overall. Let’s roll the momentum into Week 9. Especially after the clean sweep on Thursday night football. The Diontae Johnson TD drought is OVER.

Week 8

  • Spread: 9-4
  • Totals: 8-7
  • Player Props: 14-17

Overall: 31-28

2023 season

  • Spread: 47-51 (48%)
  • Totals: 62-49 (56%)
  • Player Props: 110-117 (48%)
  • ML: 4-3

Overall: 220-217 (50%)

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NFL Betting Primer: Week 9

And newly featured last week, I will feature my top bets listed at the top between underdogs, favorites and O/Us. Consider it a quick-hitting guide to access my top plays.

NFL Quick Hitters

Top favorites:

  • Ravens -5.5
  • Texans -2.5
  • Bengals -1.0
  • Patriots -3.0
  • Chiefs -1.0

Top underdogs:

  • Panthers ML/+2.5
  • Cowboys +3
  • Jets +3.5

Top totals:

  • NYG/LV under 37.5
  • TB/HOU under 40
  • CAR/IND over 44
  • NO/CHI under 41
  • DAL/PHI over 47
  • LAC/NYJ under 40.5
  • NE/WAS over 40.5

Kansas City Chiefs (-1) vs. Miami Dolphins

We kick things off across the pond over in Frankfurt Germany at Deutsche Bank Park, in a HUGE matchup between two AFC powerhouses.

KC is looking to bounce back after a loss versus the Broncos, where Patrick Mahomes was battling the flu. KC has usually played well after losses, winning their last 9 games following a loss.

Miami has struggled to beat “tougher” teams going 5-0 as a favorite, but 1-2 as an underdog this season. They have scored fewer points – 36, 24, 20, 17 – in four consecutive road games.

KC will present similar issues for Miami’s high-flying offense with their top-tier defense, ranking 5th overall in DVOA and 4th in pass defense DVOA. 23rd in rush defense DVOA. I think we will see a heavy run game plan by the Dolphins to expose the Chiefs’ weaker run defense. Miami is dealing with a lot of OL injuries, so pass protection could be a potential issue. Therefore I like the over on Raheem Mostert’s 11.5 carries prop. Even with Jeff Wilson Jr. back in action last week, Mostert carried the ball 13 times. The over HIT last week on Javonte Williams’ carry total versus the Chiefs, so we will roll that over into Week 9.

Overall it’s not too often you can bet on Patrick Mahomes laying just 1-2.5 points coming off a huge loss. Think you know where I am leaning here.

As for the game total, Miami is 5-3 toward the over this season. The unders came against the league’s worst scoring offenses in the Patriots/Giants and recently on Sunday Night Football versus the Eagles (48 points came under the 52-point closing line). The current line is bloated at 51 points when the overseas game thus far has dramatically flown under the total this season, for a perfect 3-0 toward the under.

And the Chiefs offense has not been the same juggernaut unit in past years. 2-6 toward the under this season. Currently on a four-game streak of unders. That’s not to say KC can’t score. But it’s the expectation that they are ALWAYS scoring that has underwhelmed in the markets this season.

In terms of travel, we have seen teams struggle out of the gates that leave LATER in the week, allowing less time for the body to acclimate. Miami left on Monday, but KC is scheduled to leave Thursday for Germany.

The optics of this matchup on the surface between Miami and KC as “two high-powered offenses” are heavily weighted in the total. But based on Miami’s lackluster performances versus tougher defenses and good opponents overall – along with just the weird/unusual settings of a neutral game site in Europe – I do lean toward the under even though a 24-27 game could easily be the exact outcome. Both teams might look to establish the run which might not generate as many points especially early on as we’d all love to see.

With no Clyde Edwards-Helaire – out with an illness – we should expect a massive workload for Isiah Pacheco. The rushing attempts line is set at 14.5. Over. The only way this one fails is if the Dolphins build a massive lead and KC is forced to forego the running attack.

Might even look closer toward the first half under, should KC come out sluggish after traveling over to Germany later in the week.

Although my strengths this season have been on the totals, I feel better about backing KC -1 in this spot.

My Picks:

  • Chiefs -1
  • Under 51
  • First Half Under 24.5

My Props:

Atlanta Falcons (-4) vs. Minnesota Vikings

Each of the Vikings’ last six games have gone UNDER the total points line. And that was with Kirk Cousins as the team’s starting quarterback. And now they will be starting rookie Jaren Hall in the wake of Cousins tearing his Achilles on the road where Minnesota’s offense has underperformed even with a healthy Captain Kirk at the helm of the offense.

Meanwhile, the Falcons under Desmond Ridder play substantially better at home than on the road. And I’d expect similar if not better output with Taylor Heinicke drawing the start in Week 9. Heinicke is one of the league’s better backup QBs and started 9 games last season.

5-3-1 against the spread, and 5-3-1 straight up. 2 games they didn’t win, or cover came against their division rival Giants.

To further build the case for the Falcons over the Vikings in Week 9, we must also recognize the difference between how these two teams play in one-possession/score games. Minnesota ran Supernova Hot in this category last season and has regressed negatively in 2023. The Falcons have been the opposite, running poorly in one-score games last year, while thriving in that metric in 2023. Ergo, the math suggests any one-score game here should be won by the Falcons.

The Falcons’ defense has not been great in recent weeks, and losing Grady Jarrett isn’t going to help them. And although I feel strongly about Atlanta winning the game versus a rookie QB, it might not be easy. The Falcons are on a four-game streak of failing to cover the spread in games they are favored in.

Atlanta is 6-2 toward the under this season, while Minnesota is 7-1 toward the under. Think the under might just be the move to make. And although Heinicke may not be viewed as a consensus upgrade at quarterback is an upgrade – laying 4 points with Desmond Ridder felt gross – Atlanta at home is a spot where I feel much better betting on Dirty Birds with a more capable QB under center.

The Falcons’ average margin of victory this season is 5 points, so give me the Falcons with a 5-point win in Week 9. But if this number goes to 6/6.5, I am moving firmly away and would just settle on the Falcons ML (-205).

As for props, I am going to buy the discount on T.J. Hockenson. His receptions prop is at 4.5 receptions with the downgrade at QB. However, this number Hockenson goes over in his SLEEP. Over in 7/8 games this season. Only went under this number twice last year as a member of the Vikings.

Considering how bad the Falcons have been versus tight ends – 5th-most catches allowed per game – and Hockenson’s elite target share without Justin Jefferson the last four weeks (23% target share), I think he can still get over this number with short targets from Hall. On 4 pass attempts last week, Hall targeted Hockenson twice (two also went to K.J. Osborn).

My Picks:

  • Falcons -4
  • Under 38

My Props:

Baltimore Ravens (-5.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks are currently in first place in the NFC West, and they have already made moves to bolster their standing as a legitimate NFC contender. They traded for Giants defensive lineman, Leonard Williams, a day before Tuesday’s trade deadline. Williams is a big boost to the surging Seattle defense. He’s also a big loss to the interior of the Giants’ defensive line.

Baltimore has covered their last five of six games against a team with a winning record. I pointed out last week that the Ravens are a team that plays to the level of their competition. Against good/winning teams, they bring out their best. Versus bad teams – like what we saw last week versus the Cardinals – they tend to play with less urgency and composure.

Two weeks ago, the Ravens were 5-1 toward the under. But in back-to-back weeks they have miraculously hit the overs. Last week it came in garbage time for Arizona which vaulted the game over the total after it looked like the game would fly under the projected total. I swear I am not upset.

But this game is interesting because one could argue that Seattle’s offense is one of the top units Baltimore has played this season. Again, outside the dominant performance versus Jared Goff at home, the Ravens have faced two rookie QBs making their first starts, an injured Joe Burrow, another backup QB in Gardner Minshew, Kenny Pickett, Ryan Tannehill/Malik Willis and Josh Dobbs.

Simply put, when they don’t fear an opposing QB, the Ravens tend to go under the game total.

Eight of the Ravens’ last 10 games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line. Nine of the last 10 Ravens’ home games have gone under the total.

Seattle’s pass defense has improved dramatically since the start of the year, with their cornerbacks healthy on the outside. After allowing 300-plus passing yards in three straight games to open the year…

They have allowed fewer than 250 passing yards in four straight games.

3-1 toward the under. Albeit against some pretty bad QBs. And the fact that the Seahawks defense gave up so much production to the Browns led by PJ Walker – 385 total yards – has me concerned they might not hold up versus the Ravens on the road.

My Picks:

  • Ravens -5.5
  • Under 44

My Props:

New Orleans Saints (-8.5) vs. Chicago Bears

Are the Bears contenders? Well, maybe not but their move to acquire Montez Sweat is somewhat puzzling. They traded a 2nd-round pick to acquire him, with a contract extension likely coming in the near future as well. Suggests that the Commanders are already looking ahead to 2024. More on that game later (keep scrolling).

As for this Week 9 matchup…

The Saints own a 6-2 record toward the under this year – the overs coming in their last two games. All the Colts’ games are hitting the over. And that came despite the Saints entering that game 12-0 toward the under in their previous 12 games and Derek Carr boasting a 9-3 record toward the under. Updated now to 12-2 and 9-5 respectively.

The Saints have not covered the spread in their last five games at home.

We bet on the Bears last week to cover, and that makes me gun-shy betting on them again. Thanks a lot, Velus Jones. And even though the Bears offense showed some life on offense, it was against the horrible Chargers defense that ranks 27th in overall DVOA. The Saints rank 8th. And with the Bears likely running into more trouble versus a Saints run defense that ranks fifth in expected points added versus the run, I’d be expecting a more sluggish Bears offense overall.

However, I don’t feel great backing the Saints as fraudulent favorites with a touchdown and HOOK. More than happy to just go right back to the under at 41.

The Saints have averaged 40.1 points in games played this season, and the Bears have gone under their projected total in their last 2 of 3 games without Justin Fields.

Not to mention, the Bears’ defense has played extremely well outside the first half versus the Chargers.

They still rank fourth in the fewest yards allowed per play over their last 3 contests. Adding Sweat to the mix can’t hurt either.

But if I am to bet ANYTHING from this game, it’s 100% Alvin Kamara over his receptions prop. 4.5? Child, please. I know he came up just short of this number last week, but it’s just two low for a guy that is so heavily involved as a receiver. 23 catches in his last three games. Derek Carr is a check-down KING. And the Bears cannot stop RBs in the passing game. They rank 3rd in receptions, third in targets and 1st in receiving yards allowed to RBs this season.

I also tend to lean toward the under on D’Onta Foreman’s 10.5 carries prop. The Bears are massive road underdogs for a second straight week, and this Bears offense is running a three-headed committee. The rushing attempts under HIT for the last 7 of 8 RBs New Orleans’s fierce run defense has faced this season. Last week, the first-half carries were 5 to 4 to 1, between Foreman/Roschon Johnson/Darrynton Evans. Could easily see RJ usurp Foreman entirely as the team’s RB1 further backing the case for the under here.

My Picks:

  • Under 41 

My Props:

Cleveland Browns (-12.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals

*Editor’s Note: Deshaun Watson was announced as the Browns’ starting QB after this article’s initial publish time.

Poor Clayton Tune. A rookie QB is being thrown to the wolves in his first start as a professional against one of the league’s premier defenses. Meanwhile, P.J. Walker is teed up to have his best game to date against a horrible Cardinals defense. Walker hasn’t been great in any of his three starts this season, but the Browns scored 39 points when they faced a horrible Colts defense two weeks ago.

Think Cleveland can do enough offensively between their talented group of pass-catchers and RBs to take advantage of Arizona at home.

Because the Cardinals have stood zero shot of winning games on the road this season. They should be 0-4 versus the spread on the road this season (0-4 straight up). Since the plucky Josh Dobbs (now a Minnesota Viking) started the year 3-0 versus the spread (zero expectations) they have dropped four of five games ATS (backdoor cover last week) losing by an average of 13.4 points.

The Browns have covered the last 6 games following a loss. And the last 6 of the last 7 games have gone under the total. 1-3 toward the under at home. And the one “over” was the bizarre Steelers-Browns game that went over because of two defensive TDs.

 

Houston Texans (-2.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Houston’s last win was against an overrated Saints team before the team’s bye week. C.J. Stroud was firing on all cylinders with the OL fully healthy. In his last 2 games played before the bye week, Stroud was the 4th-least pressured QB. Versus Carolina, he was also not pressured heavily. Over the last four weeks, he has been the 3rd-least pressured QB. But he was unable to will his way to a victory because the Texans only dropped back 27 times in Week 8. It was a season-low for Stroud in pass attempts as they dialed up a more aggressive rushing attack.

Makes sense given the Panthers’ weaknesses versus the run, but it doesn’t necessarily fit what the Texans do well on offense. I’d bet we see more of Stroud throwing versus the Buccaneers, who have the 3rd-highest pass rate faced on the road this season.

They also blitz at the third-highest rate. Music to Stroud’s ears. Against the blitz this season, Stroud ranks second in yards per attempt and fourth in passer rating.

Houston is 4-1 versus the spread over their last five games. And all 3 of their wins have been by 7-plus points. Tampa has also struggled recently having dropped back-to-back games at home and 3 straight games since coming off their bye week.

The Texans have gone under in four of their last five games, which all featured them playing offenses that are averaging fewer than 20 points per game. Tampa Bay is averaging 17.3 points per game (27th).

Tampa Bay boasts the league’s No. 1 red zone defense. Houston’s defense ranks 7th.

However, they rank 32nd on the third down conversion rate defensively. Teams can move easily on the Bucs between the 20s, but they tighten up in the red zone. Houston should be able to move the ball as they rank 7th in third-down conversion rate this season.

Houston’s offense has struggled in the red zone this season ranking 26th in conversion rate. Tampa Bay’s offense ranks 28th.

The Buccaneers’ ability to hold teams at bay in the red zone has fueled their 6-1 record toward the under this season including five straight unders.

Think the breakdown of this game is pretty straightforward. Bet the under and the Texans at home.

In the two games where Tampa has not won the turnover battle, they are 0-2 straight up with an average defeat of 14 points. Houston ranks 1st in fewest giveaways allowed per game (0.6).

My Picks:

  • Under 40
  • Texans -2.5

New England Patriots (-2.5) vs. Washington Football Team

The Commanders defense is not good. And they just traded away their two best pass-rushers Montez Sweat and Chase Young before the trade deadline. This one could get ugly for the nation’s capital, even against a bad Patriots offense at home. Because the Pats have increased their offensive output dramatically over the last few weeks. Cole Strange, Mike Onwenu and rookie Demario Douglas were all healthy for the second straight week.

Their offense remains strong in the red zone – in the cases that they can get there. 7th in red-zone conversion rate. We saw a season-high offensive performance against an injured-plagued Bills unit at home a few weeks ago, so I like the Pats offense in this spot. Outside the complete dud, the Patriots played versus the Saints a few weeks back, all 3 of their best offensive games (points/yards) have been at home. Two straight games that have gone OVER the total in back-to-back weeks.

Mac Jones is horrible as an underdog, but performs much better as a favorite. 12-8-1 per the Action Network.

When the Commanders have failed ATS they have combined for 10 offensive turnovers. In the 3 games they have covered, 0 turnovers on offense.

The Patriots defense has generated 4 turnovers in their last two games after generating 2 through their first 5 games.

However, the Pats’ defense has allowed nearly 28 points per game in their last four contests. That looks like a potential spot where Sam Howell can take advantage. But he’s been super matchup-dependent. Great versus the Eagles (twice) and Broncos. But bad versus the likes of the Bills, Bears, and Giants.

And it’s been an up-and-down trend with Howell unable to post back-to-back strong outings. Turnovers will ultimately decide his fate, and the fact that he is tied for league-lead in turnover-worthy plays the last two weeks has me very concerned about his prospects against the Patriots. Even if they can score points, the sacks/turnovers will set Washington back too much against the spread.

Especially if they can hit on the big plays from OUTSIDE the red zone. Washington scored three TDs from outside the 20-yard line versus the Eagles.

Making my homer pick with the Patriots at -2.5 and leaning toward the second straight OVER. Hit the over pick last week against Miami. Given how turnover-worthy prone BOTH quarterbacks are, we could easily see some defensive TDs and short fields to aid in total scoring. Both rank top-5 in terms of points allowed to opposing defenses and above average in red-zone trips granted on defense.

As bad as the Patriots have been, their average total game points scored has been 41 points. The Commanders is nearly 50 points. Sneaky shootout on deck.

And that means we are in for some player prop overs.

Look at Washington Commanders No. 2 WR, Jahan Dotson. The Patriots have stifled No. 1 WRs this season, but have allowed No. 2 WRs to run wild. 1st in DVOA versus No. 1s, but 29th in DVOA versus No. 2s. 6th in targets and yards allowed to No. 2 WRs. Dotson -fresh off back-to-back games with 5-plus catches and 8-plus targets – should be set up in a good spot here. Curtis Samuel will likely miss the game with a toe injury, and his absence the last two weeks has influenced Dotson’s spike in production.

I sound like a broken record, but the Brian Robinson props are too good to pass up on. We took the under last week. It hit. Brian Robinson has been under 12.5 carries for four straight games. It’s back at 12.5 and that means it’s another solid spot to back the under. The Commanders are a pass-first offense and I don’t think that will change against the Patriots. New England boasts the No. 1 run defense in expected points added. Their pass defense ranks 27th. Think it’s safe to say what we can expect the Commanders offense to do on Sunday. Throw the damn ball.

Before last week, in games where Demario Douglas has played more than 40% of the snaps, he has totaled at least 4 receptions and 40-plus receiving yards on 6.5 targets. He came up just short of his receiving yards prop last week catching 5 balls for 25 yards. But don’t be fooled as Douglas was the clear target leader with 7 opportunities. 77% snap share led all WRs as did his two red zone targets and 84% route participation. It’s a great matchup for him to hit the over at 41.5 receiving yards versus the Commanders, who rank 2nd in most fantasy points and 1st in receiving yards allowed to WRs this season.

My Picks:

  • Over 40.5
  • Patriots -2.5

My Props:

Green Bay Packers (-3.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams

The 3.5 point line suggests Matthew Stafford won’t be playing on Sunday as he deals with a thumb injury. Because the Packers have done absolutely nothing to deserve to be favorites against any team with what they have put out on the field.

The Packers haven’t looked good since Week 1 when they faced the Bears. They are losers of 4 straight (two-by-one-score games) and their only other win came in a miraculous comeback versus the Saints.

The offense has regressed immensely with Jordan Love at the helm. And coaching has played a major part because of how awful the team is in the first halves of games. 32nd in points per game in the first half (4.1). Second half? 1st in points per game. WOOF.

It’s a larger issue that Green Bay needs to figure out to alleviate the sluggish starts. Luckily the Rams matchup is favorable for them.

The Rams are allowing the league’s 5th-lowest passing TD percentage but an average red zone defense (17th) and the league’s 4th highest rushing TD percentage at a whopping 50%. In Week 7 the Steelers’ offense went a perfect 3-for-3 in the red zone against the Rams. Last week versus Dallas 2-for-3.

LA has also been super inconsistent all year long, as they seemingly can only put together 30 minutes of solid football any given Sunday. They got blown out in the first half versus Dallas.

Their run defense ranks 20th in DVOA and their pass defense ranks 22nd. Again, I feel like a broken record backing the Packers, but against a Stafford-less Rams team (4-5 ATS last season) feels like the right spot for them to get a win at home.

Against offenses not-named the Arizona Cardinals or injury-ravened Seahawks/Bengals, the Rams have allowed no less than 23 points on defense this season. Only in one game have they allowed fewer than 300 yards of offense.

Simply put, if a completely overrated and fraudulent Steelers team could come away with a 7-point victory on the road versus the Rams – deservedly so or not – GB should take care of business versus L.A even if it requires another strong second-half effort.

Four of the Packers’ last five games have gone UNDER the total points line. Heavily lean toward the under overall in this contest. Even with Cooper Kupp back the last month, the Rams are 3-1 toward the under, with the one “over” coming on the back of Dallas’ offense in Week 8. Over the last month, the Rams have averaged just 9.5 points per game in the first half. Their defense – before allowing 33 points in the first half last week – had allowed just 9.3 points per game in the first half.

My Picks:

  • Packers -3.5
  • Under 38 
  • 1st half Under 19.5

 

Carolina Panthers (2.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts

My fondness for the Carolina Panthers grew as the week progressed in Week 8, so much so that I completely took my official Texans pick ATS off the books and flipped to Carolina +3.5. Carolina came away with the straight-up home win, and I think this could be the start of a streak for the Cardiac Cats.

Bryce Young posted his highest passer rating and PFF passing grade, throwing for his second-highest yardage mark on the season. Thomas Brown took over play-calling duties and so far it looks to have been a positive development for his rookie QB.

Head coach Frank Reich has traditionally been much better at winning games in the second half of the year versus his slow starts.

And I love this spot against the atrocious Colts defense for this offense to keep its momentum going in a revenge game for Reich at home. It’s by far the easiest matchup the Panthers have drawn this season.

This is super important to note because we knew the Panthers could struggle out of the gates based on their schedule. I wrote about them having the 25th ranked schedule Weeks 1-8, while boasting the 3rd-easiest Week 9 onward. That starts this week. So shake off your anchor bias from the team’s slow start and buy this team to start racking up wins.

Indianapolis is an OVER machine. The Colts are 6-2 toward the OVER this year with their two “unders” coming in Gardner Minshew’s first start in a rainy game in Baltimore and in the Titans matchup where Anthony Richardson got knocked out early. Still, both games ended with 39-plus points scored.

All the other six games they have played have gone over the total because of the chaotic nature of Gardner Minshew (first in turnover-worthy plays) in an offense that has benefited from big plays that have generated points on both sides.

In Week 8, the Colts and Saints combined for 9 plays of 20-plus yards. The Colts averaged 7 the previous four weeks.

Both defenses give up a TON of explosive plays. And both are allowing over 28 points per game.

Bet the over and the Panthers on the ML in this spot. Carolina is 2-1 versus the spread at home this season. Also 2-1 toward the over in their last three games.

As for props, I am trusting the projections with this one. Under on Alec Pierce’s 2.5 receptions yardage prop. He has an abysmal 11% target share over the last month. And considering he is one a three-game heater of three straight overs (with 3 receptions in all the games), I think he’s due for an under. The Panthers are a defense that has faced the league’s heaviest run rate, which could limit the total pass attempts for Indy. Carolina also doesn’t give up a ton of huge passing plays or face a high average depth of target. Considering Pierce is used mostly downfield – leads all Colts WRs in aDOT – he’s facing an uphill battle to haul in 3-plus balls on tougher to convert downfield pass attempts from Gardner Minshew.

Because the Panthers have faced the league’s highest run rate, I want to back the overs on Jonathan Taylor’s rushing/carries props.

He had 11 carries in the first half last week for 94 yards – 7 for 82 in the first quarter – before the team just randomly decided to stop feeding him the ball.

One carry in the second half. In yet, still played a season-high snap share at 61%.

Shane Steichen said post-game it was due to the team being down so much in the second half. Even though I like the Panthers to win this game outright, it’s probably safe to say this game will be more back-and-forth. That will keep JT in the game, and the yards/carries will continue to pile up. Ladder bet alert? You. Bet.

My Picks:

  • Panthers ML
  • Over 44

My Props: 

 

Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5) vs. New York Giants

The Raiders are who we thought they were. An utter dumpster fire. After a horrible start highlighted by a poor showing on Monday Night Football versus the Detroit Lions, the team fired both head coach, Josh McDaniels and general manager Dave Ziegler just 8 weeks into the duo’s second year with the organization. Woof.

The team is also looking to bench starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, in favor of rookie Aidan O’ Connell.

In yet, they remain 1.5-point favorites versus the Giants. The Raiders cannot stop the run – 3rd in rushing yards allowed per game to RBs – and that is going to be an issue against Big Blue in their offense that ranks fourth in run rate over expectation. Saquon Barkley is the offense for the Giants fresh off a game that saw him earn 36 carries in 2023 football. No joke. Bet the over on his rushing attempts at 17.5 carries. He IS THE ENTIRE OFFENSE.

Daniel Jones is also expected to make his return, bolstering the case for Big Blue. They would have covered last week, but their QB got injured and Zach Wilson bailed the Jets out seconds before overtime kicked off. I’m not upset (clearly). Giants forced 11 punts from the Jets offense. Two third-down conversions.

Regardless, O’Connell is going to run into issues with the Giants defense. They shut down two offenses that have had no issues putting up points this season between the Bills/Commanders. Their defense is finally generating turnovers.

The Raiders are 6-2 toward the under. I presume they go run-heavy with a rookie QB, with New York’s weakness against the run. They also don’t have Leonard Williams to fear on the Giants roster.

The Giants are 7-1 toward the under this season.

Bet the under with offenses that want to run the football. The Giants will feed Barkley and the Raiders will feed Jacobs. Great for ball control and grinding out wins. But not for consistently hitting overs.

And although I like Giants +1.5 (any sports betting content you absorb this week will talk about how ridiculous it is that the Raiders are favorites) we see this all the time with teams after they fire their coach. The very next week, they rally. Per the Action Network, those teams are 16-19 straight up and 19-16 ATS (54%). It’s probably a spot not worth touching unless the Raiders become complete betting underdogs. When in doubt, just bet the under.

And bet the OVER props on Davante Adams. Because good lord this man is going to get drowned in targets. The last time we saw Aidan O’Connell start a game, Adams was O’Connell’s top target, securing 8 receptions for 75 yards on 13 targets despite getting treated for a shoulder injury early on in the contest. Adams owned a 50% first-read target share. He’s going to catch at least 7 balls.

My Picks:

  • Under 37.5

My Props:

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) vs. Dallas Cowboys

The Eagles’ high-powered offense ranks third in points per game (28). Their fatal flaw has been in the red zone, but it’s improved dramatically over their last 3 games (5th-best).

The Cowboys rank second in points per game and that’s been with the 29th-ranked red zone offense. Dallas’ record at 5-2 overall is no fluke, even amid their offensive struggles in the red zone. The Eagles defense rank 26th in red zone defense – by far the worst red zone defense the Cowboys have faced this season.

Philly is 1-4 toward the over on the road this season, but 2-1 toward the over at home. No game has scored fewer than 48 points total in Philly this season.

Dallas is 3-4 toward the under this year, but 2-2 O/U on the road.

Each of the last five games between the Cowboys and Eagles have gone OVER the total points line.

The Average total between these two teams this season: 47.4

Enough evidence for me to back the over on the 47-point total. The Eagles defense is overrated, and the Cowboys defense plays much worse at home than on the road.

As for sides…the favorites have covered the spread in eight of the Cowboys’ last nine games.

But Dallas is 4-1 ATS when they accumulate 300-plus yards on offense and perfect 5-0 ATS when they score 20 points on offense. Eagles have covered one spread when they have allowed 20 points on defense. By a half point. There were also two pushes. 1-2-2 ATS when their defense allows 20 points.

Again, I think Dallas can have a strong offensive outing in this spot versus the Eagles defense. Dak Prescott has been on fire in his last two games, as PFF’s No.1-graded QB.

Given that Jalen Hurts may also be dealing with a knee injury – I am going to back Dallas on the road. All In all, this game would likely be a pick ‘em in a neutral site, and the Eagles have hardly benefitted from any home-field advantage thus far this season. And they have hardly been a team that has comfortably covered, going 1-2 ATS the last 3 weeks. Dallas has the second-best record ATS in the NFC (71.4%).

From a props perspective, I think we can take advantage of a potentially pass-heavy game script for Dallas. No team faces a higher pass-play rate than the Eagles this season (72%). And Dallas dialed up a pass-heavy approach last week coming out of their bye week. In the first half alone, Prescott attempted 21 passes, completing 17 for 225 yards. Philly is also allowing the league’s most completions per game at 26.5. Think this is a spot for some same-game parlay action with Prescott stacked with CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson.

This prop is more narrative-driven, but I like the bet at plus odds. Jalen Hurts is not 100% and attempted just 4 rushes last week. His line is set at 7.5 with plus-money odds toward the under. Take the under.

My Picks:

  • Over 47
  • Cowboys +3

My Props: 

Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) vs. Buffalo Bills

Buffalo has either dramatically underwhelmed or blown their opponents’ doors off this season. Their two strongest offensive outputs have come at home. Therefore, we should be wary of them on the road in Cincy. They are 1-3 straight up and ATS on the road/neutral sites this season.

Still, Buffalo’s offense should be able to move the ball even amid their road struggles as they rank second in third-down conversion rate this season. Cincy ranks 24th defending on third downs.

The Bengals are also 17th overall in DVOA. The Bills scored 24 points on an equal if not better Buccaneers’ defensive unit (12th in DVOA) last Thursday night.

Josh Allen – despite the narrative that he is super careless with the ball – has one turnover-worthy play over the team’s last five games. Buffalo also boasts the second-best red-zone offense this season (69%).

The Bills defense is the bigger issue at hand. Injuries have caught up with them, as they have allowed season-best performances to the league’s two worst offenses (Patriots, Giants) in 2 of the last 3 weeks. Failed to close out last Thursday night versus the Buccaneers.

They have allowed 20.25 points and 300-plus yards per game on defense in the last four weeks. They also rank 9th worst term in terms of third downs allowed over the last 3 weeks.

They forced an OVER game total with the Patriots’ anemic offense…

Simply put, I see no reason why the Bengals can’t continue to shred this Bills defense. They are finally healthy and we saw last week them impose their will on an exploitable 49ers defense. Rinse and repeat folks.

The Bengals are heating up. Back them at home as 1-point favorites (moneyline). And take the over on what should be a high-scoring affair on Sunday Night Football.

Josh Allen has thrown for 284-plus passing yards in 7 straight games as a road underdog. Take the over on his passing yards prop (267.5 passing yards). Pair it with Dalton Kincaid OVER

Kincaid caught 5 passes out of 7 targets for 65 yards in Week 8. He scored 1 touchdown (18% Target share). The week before, Kincaid ran a route on 63% of the dropbacks while playing 61% of the snaps. In Week 8, he ran a route on 85% of the dropbacks while playing 84% of the snaps.

Wheels ARE up for the rookie tight end versus a defense that ranks 1st in most fantasy points allowed to TEs this season.

If it ain’t broke don’t fix it. Tee Higgins hit the over on his receiving yards prop last week, and the lines have barely moved his yardage prop.

Higgins has a 62 receiving yards per game career average. Last year he averaged 64 receiving yards per game and went over 45.5 yards in 11 of 17 games played, including 9 in a row.

Look for him to start a new streak in Week 9. Also like the under on Tyler Boyd at 4.5 receptions. He’s only hit the over in 4/7 games this season, two of which came in games where Higgins as not played or was limited to a snap count.

My Picks:

  • Bengals ML (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • Over 50.5 (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)

My Props:

New York Jets (+3.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers are 3-4 ATS this year, and it’s been by razor-thin margins when they have covered aside from their Bears beatdown on Sunday Night Football. They’ve won one game by more than one score.

The Chargers are also facing the 2nd-most red-zone trips per game on defense this season. 32nd in passing yards per attempt allowed on defense. New York’s offense should be able to do something to keep this game close.

The Jets are 3.5 point- dogs at home riding a three-game win streak (3-0-1 ATS over their last four games). Their defense has been light’s out, holding opponents to a league-low 4.8 yards per attempt.

The Chargers don’t traditionally blow teams out and they are 1-2 ATS on the road this season. They beat Minnesota by 4 points in their only cover, followed by losses to the Titans by 3, and Chiefs by 14.

Simply put, don’t be swayed by the Chargers’ major win versus the Bears on SNF. This team consistently underwhelms, and I expect exactly that much on the road versus a much tougher defense in Week 9.

L.A. is also 5-2 toward the under this year. It’s been five straight unders. The Jets are 4-3 toward the under. 8 games have been played at MetLife Stadium this season. 7 unders. One over. Average of 31.4 points.

It’s the anti-Coors Field. Bet the under on Monday night.

My Picks:

  • Under 40 (-115 BetMGM)
  • Jets +3.5

My Props:

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