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NFL Betting Primer: Top Picks & Player Prop Bets for Every Game (Week 1)

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Introducing the Week 1 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.

Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering - I know that I am for the first time now that my state has legalized wagering - this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 1 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for all remaining Week 1 games.

NFL Betting Primer

Baltimore Ravens (BAL) vs. Houston Texans (HOU) – Spread: BAL -9.5 

Love, love, love the Ravens in the spot. The heaviest favorites at home versus an under-matched Houston Texans team that has suffered injuries across its offensive line this preseason, with a rookie QB making his first NFL in a hostile environment. Over the last four seasons under John Harbaugh, the Ravens’ average margin of victory in Week 1 has been by over 25 points.

And we should expect a healthy dosage of Ravens RB J.K. Dobbins inflicting damage on the Houston Texans’ defense.  During Dobbins' hot streak to end the 2022 season, he hit the "over" his rushing line in his last five games at full health. The Texans’ run defense has been a bottom-5 unit over the past three seasons, so Dobbins should be set for a very productive day rushing. The Texans tried to plug up their interior with the additions of Sheldon Rankins and Hassan Ridgeway this offseason, but it remains to be seen if new head coach Demeco Ryans can turn this unit into the stingy 49ers run defense of the south with overall inferior personnel.

Atlanta Falcons (ATL) vs. Carolina Panthers (CAR) – Spread: CAR +3.5

I spoke glowingly about the Atlanta Falcons in my NFC South: Picks & Predictions article released this past summer. I believe that the Falcons boast the best overall odds to win their division, and that starts in Week 1 versus the Panthers. Carolina's OL looked completely overmatched during preseason contests, and the offense is severely lacking weaponry on the offensive side of the ball. That will put them significantly behind the 8-ball versus a revamped Falcons defense that should take a step forward in 2023 with the additions of Jeff Okudah, Calais Campbell, Jessie Bates, Kaden Elliss, Bud Dupree, etc. Eliss reunites with new Falcons defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen from their days spent in New Orleans. I'll take that defense at home versus a rookie quarterback making his first NFL start. It's by no coincidence that the Panthers have the third-lowest implied team total on the slate. I am really not sure how the Panthers actually plan on moving the ball and sustaining drives.

Sure, the books aren't high on the Falcons scoring a ton of points - 21.75 implied points puts them 18th - but I'm confident they will provide the most offensive points in this game. I am confident that second-year QB Desmond Ridder can be competent enough to distribute the ball to his playmakers and let them take care of the rest. Marcus Mariota threw multiple TDs in just four of his games last season for the Falcons. Two games versus the Panthers (5 passing TDs total). Ride the Ridder's perfect home winning streak. The former Cincinnati quarterback has never lost a home game in college or the pros.

Considering the low overall total in this game (39.5), I am not expecting insane passing yardage totals from either side. Therefore, I am going under on Kyle Pitts' 37.5 receiving yards prop after he posted poor route participation during the preseason. We have not seen Pitts play a game with Ridder at the NFL level, and Arthur Smith seems to prefer Drake London and Bijan Robinson as his two featured pieces on offense. Given that Pitts went over this number just three times in 10 games last season...the under is the move on the talent yet misused Falcons tight end, who was listed as a co-starter with tight end Jonnu Smith on the team's depth chart.

Cleveland Browns (CLE) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (CIN) – Spread: CLE +2.5

The Browns are playing in front of their home crowd, gearing up for a better season from quarterback Deshaun Watson. The former Texans QB struggled last season with so much time away from the game due to a lengthy suspension. Meanwhile, the Bengals have been without Joe Burrow for virtually the entire offseason, as he's been rehabbing a calf injury. The close spread is also heavily considering the Bengals' struggles versus the Browns, as they have lost 3 of their last four matchups against their AFC North rivals. However, the Bengals won the most recent game 23-10. And the game they lost in late October, Cincy was without star WR Ja'Marr Chase. It was his first game last year that he missed, so it's possible the Bengals just weren't as prepared as they should have been without him.

The Bengals are my long-term bet to win the Super Bowl this year, and I think their success starts here in Week 1. Excluding their loss in the AFC Championship game, the Bengals haven't lost a game with a healthy Chase since Week 5 of the 2022 regular season. And all of their 14 wins  â€“ and technically all their 13 wins in 2021 - have been won by at least a three-point margin.

As for props, I like going toward the over on Watson's 23.5 rushing yards prop. He averaged nearly 30 rushing yards per game last season and was frequently scrambling during the preseason. With the potential that this game shoots out - third-highest total on the slate - Watson should fly over this number with plenty of dropback opportunities. The BettingPros prop bet analyzer has Watson projected for 28.4 rushing yards, putting him comfortably over the betting line.

Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT) vs. San Francisco 49ers (SF) – Spread: PIT +2.5

The 49ers played four road games over their 10-game winning streak to close out the 2022 season. Two games versus the crumbling Rams/Cardinals, one TNF victory over Seattle, and a wild OT finish versus a Jarrett Stidham-led Raiders. They hardly faced a murderer's row of road teams. They wouldn't lose a game until the conference championship in Philadelphia. Fast forward to 2023, and the 49ers will open on the road at Pittsburgh. The Steelers were strong after their bye week, finishing 7-2 (7-2 ATS) after a rocky 2-6 start. And both of their losses at home were by one score. Pittsburgh is 3-1-1 in Week 1 over the past five seasons, including two big upsets as touchdown underdogs the last two years versus Buffalo and Cincinnati.

I think a fierce Steelers defensive line (5th-ranked DL vs. 18th-ranked OL for SF) at home gets after Brock Purdy in his first NFL start since his major elbow injury, and the Steel Curtain pulls off their third straight Week 1 upset. The Steelers are 3-1-1 as home dogs over the past two seasons. My bet feels even better knowing that Pittsburgh is entering the game in much better health than the 49ers, who have also been without Nick Bosa for all of the preseason as he awaited his new contract.

Considering I am not super high on the 49ers offense, I am also betting the under on Brock Purdy's passing yardage prop. The best line I can find is 236.5 passing yards over on Underdog Fantasy. His projection is coming way under this total at just 204 yards. With Kittle entering the game banged up, Purdy's passing numbers could suffer dramatically.

Washington Commanders (WAS) vs. Arizona Cardinals (ARI) – Spread: ARI +7

When this line finally moved to seven points in favor of the Commanders, my first take was that Sam Howell shouldn't be a 7-point favorite versus anybody in the NFL. But when considering the starting quarterback Joshua Dobbs has made a grand total of two starts and arrived at the team two weeks before their season opener against Washington...it's not hard to see why the line currently rests as is. Dobbs started two games for the Titans last season, finishing 0-2 with the league's 8th-worst passer rating. Jonathan Gannon had originally remained hush-hush on who would start at QB, maintaining his stance on "competitive advantage." But Arizona finally announced it would be Dobbs drawing the start after spending time with new Cardinals OC Drew Petzing in Cleveland. Dobbs starting probably won't matter versus PFF's 3rd-ranked defensive line with a secondary that looks improved from last year.

Don't overthink the 7-point home favorite Commanders (as the highest projected scoring DST in Week 1), believing the Cardinals can make this a legitimate back-and-forth contest. Howell has performed well whenever he has been given the opportunity, and I believe that will continue in 2023. And there's no better spot for him to be in than against a lowly Arizona Cardinals defense that is ALREADY playing for the 2024 season. They boast PFF's 32nd-ranked defensive line and 29th-ranked secondary. This defense is potentially WORSE than it was last season, when it was a consensus bottom-10 unit in most metrics, "highlighted" by allowing the league's second-highest passer rating. Unless the Cardinals score some random defensive TD or on special teams, Washington comes away with a 7-point win.

Because in addition to Howell being in a great spot...I am confident Washington will be able to run the ball effectively. Brian Robinson Jr. should get fed in this matchup, making his rushing prop at 57.5 yards an enticing proposition towards the over. From Week 6 onward last season, B-Rob averaged 9.4 fantasy points per game (RB34). But the points per game hardly depict Robinson's rookie campaign because he was getting pumped with volume. He ranked fourth in carries (17.8 per game) and averaged over 70 rushing yards per game as PFF's ninth-highest-graded running back (82.1).

New Orleans Saints (NO) vs. Tennessee Titans (TEN) – Spread: NO -3.5

We saw Derek Carr take on this Titans secondary back in Week 3, and the ex-Raiders QB tossed for 302 passing yards and two TDs - albeit in a losing effort due to a failed two-point conversion. But I am not super confident we see another high-end performance from Carr in his first game as a Saint. His 24th-ranked OL is at a disadvantage versus a fierce Titans defense front seven that features the likes of Denico Autry, Teair Tart, Jeffery Simmons, Arden Key, and Harold Landry III, the latter of whom missed the entire 2022 season due to an injury.

On the flip side, the biggest concern on the Titans’ side is their offensive line. It's easily the worst in the NFL and will prove to be problematic against tough defensive fronts. But that's not really the Saints defensive line that ranks 29th entering the 2022 season per PFF. However, given that offensive lines can take time to gel, I'll give the nod to the Saints’ defense in the trenches, especially at home.

With a lack of conviction in both starting OLs, I am strongly leaning toward the under 41.5 in this contest. Both defensive secondary units have more talent than their 2022 numbers would suggest. And neither offensive playcaller necessarily wants to run up the scoreboard, with both ranking bottom-10 in pace last year. Ryan Tannehill was also 7-5 toward the under at 42 points last season as the team's starter. Just twice the total went over 48 points.

If I had to pick a side, I'd likely go to the Titans with 3.5 points because I think it is very close between the two teams. But there's no debate that Mike Vrabel owns a big edge as head coach that can win with less than Saints HC Dennis Allen.

A potential lack of offensive fireworks has me sniffing around for player prop unders, specifically with second-year WR Treylon Burks. The team already projects to be run-heavy with Derrick Henry, and the underrated Saints secondary will pose problems. Burks had more than four receptions once last season. And now alpha target-earner DeAndre Hopkins enters the fold, making it less likely Burks will go over his projected total.

Minnesota Vikings (MIN) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB) – Spread: TB +6.0

The Minnesota Vikings were one of the most overrated teams last season, finishing with a fraudulent 13-4 record despite a negative point differential. They have no means of a pass rush, which was even considering the team's recent trade of Za'Darius Smith, Minnesota's No. 1 pressure generator in 2022. Danielle Hunter is coming off a season-ending torn pectoral injury. Expect their defense, led by Brian Flores, to blitz a ton and rely heavily on man coverage. This will make life tough on Baker Mayfield but also potentially lead to big plays. Their defense ranked 31st in explosive receptions allowed last season. Considering Tampa is the inferior opponent, they are going to need a few things to go in their favor, which they certainly can do based on their talented players at WR and RB.

I like the over 45.5 in a sneaky dome shootout and for the Buccaneers to cover in Mayfield's first start. And it's less about liking Tampa Bay - although I feel they are undervalued with current offensive personnel - and more about fading an overrated Vikings team (and horrible defense) from last season.

A player who will play a large role in ensuring the Buccaneers offense gets points is running back Rachaad White. His 2.5 receptions prop is egregiously low. Once he became the starter last year over Leonard Fournette, he hit the over in 6 of his 7 games played. Mayfield is a dump-off savant and will look toward White as a check-down option early and often.

Indianapolis Colts (IND) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (JAC) – Spread: IND +5

A Jonathan Taylor-less Colt team will play host to the most hyped-up team this offseason with the Jacksonville Jaguars. If the Jags were playing at home, I'd have zero issues taking them with the points. But the fact that Jacksonville must go on the road versus a divisional rival has me smelling a potential trap game brewing. These two teams split wins and losses last season, with the home team winning each respective matchup. And the lack of JT is being overblown by the market as if RBs should ever effectively influence lines and totals, considering it is one of the most replaceable positions in football.

The unknown factor of Colts rookie QB Anthony Richardson is what has me really intrigued, especially because the Jaguars’ defense was poor versus mobile QBs a season ago. They allowed the third-most rushing yards and fifth-most rushing attempts from opposing QBs. Jalen Hurts (38), Daniel Jones (107), Patrick Mahomes (39), and Lamar Jackson (89) all posted effective rushing totals against the Jaguars under defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell. Considering I think that Richardson can do more than the markets are giving him credit for against last year's 30th-ranked pass defense in DVOA...

I think we could see some early offensive fireworks from both sides. The total is listed at 45.5 (-110). Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr. went nuclear the last time he faced the Jaguars, posting 134 receiving yards on 13 catches and 16 targets.

Per the FantasyPros Primer, the Jaguars went pass-heavy in the second half of the season, ranking 7th in neutral pass play rate. Shane Steichen's offense in Philly was seventh in neutral pace with the 11th-highest neutral rushing rate. Therefore, I'll back the Jaguars' 25.5 team total after they averaged that number scoring last year versus the Colts. Not only will Indianapolis be able to push the Jaguars into scoring, but the Jags offense should also be in a better position to score points with WR Calvin Ridley added into the fold versus an extremely suspect defense. The Colts also boast PFF's 31st-ranked secondary. The projected starting cornerbacks are Dallis Flowers and Darrell Baker Jr…..two former 2022 UDFAs.

The Jaguars are going to score points in this matchup, and the WR I feel most confident about finding the end zone is Christian Kirk. Kirk finished 5th in red-zone targets last season and scored three TDs versus the Colts in two games against them last season.

The Jags leading RB rusher versus the Colts last season averaged 75 rushing yards. The Prop Bet Analyzer loves the Travis Etienne rushing over. He went over that line in four of his last five starts.

Los Angeles Chargers (LAC) vs. Miami Dolphins (MIA) – Spread: LAC -3

This should be a fun, high-scoring affair between two high-powered offenses. I wouldn't shy away from betting the over at 51 with both offenses mostly healthy at full strength. However, Jaylen Waddle's oblique injury and the absence of Jalen Ramsey move the odds enough for the Chargers, in my estimation. With newfound support and improved health, Justin Herbert is poised for a strong start to the 2023 season-locked-and-loaded fantasy QB1 with No. 1 overall upside in Week 1. I’d bet he overs, including on his interceptions (+135), given he has averaged at least one pick in his last four matchups versus Vic Fangio-led defenses. Still, passing yardage will be plentiful. He shredded the 2022 Dolphins personnel for a season-high 367 passing yards in Week 14 last season.

I don't think Tua Tagovailoa will be able to match Herbert in this matchup. Last year, when facing Brandon Staley's defense, Tagovailoa posted his worst completion percentage (36%) of the 2022 season. Considering this uber-talented defensive roster is healthy entering the start of the season - usually not the case if you have followed the Chargers' injury-plagued luck throughout the years - Miami's offense might be more underwhelming than most are anticipating, given the game's high projected total for Vegas.

Seattle Seahawks (SEA) vs. Los Angeles Rams (LAR) – Spread: LAR +4.0

The people still don't believe in Geno Smith. Well, I do. Smith is an overlooked gem for Week 1 and will lead Seattle to victory. The Seahawks quarterback averaged an impressive 19.4 fantasy points per game last season, tied for 6th in the league. Seattle boasts a strong implied team total (25.5) against the completely overhauled Rams defense, which ranks 32nd in secondary per PFF. With youth and growing pains on the Rams' side, Smith, as a 4-point home favorite, is set to shine. He's had success against the Rams in the past, averaging nearly 22 fantasy points per game last year, making him a solid option to back, especially with Jaxon Smith-Njigba available.

As for props, I am just going to take the low-hanging fruit with tight end Tyler Higbee. Cooper Kupp is out, and the only reason Higbee’s 44.5 receiving yards prop isn't higher is due to his lack of receiving numbers posted in the second half of last season when Kupp and Matthew Stafford were hurt. But in the two games that Kupp missed or left early in 2022, Higbee posted 45 and 73 receiving yards with Stafford at the helm - seizing 8 targets in each contest.

New England Patriots (NE) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (PHI) – Spread: NE +4.0

Is this a Homer selection? Perhaps. But there's no denying there's a lot of sharp money on New England at home. Because if the Eagles were so much better than New England...why is the spread just four points? Because the sharps are acknowledging that the Eagles had one of the softest schedules ever on paper in 2022 and that they may not be the insane juggernaut the public views them as. New England still boasts a top-tier defense that will no doubt give Jalen Hurts & Co. fits, with Bill Belichick emphasizing an entire offseason to prepare for this Week 1 matchup. Ultimately, I think that talent wins out when the Eagles pull out the W...but might take a last-second field goal and some Jalen Hurts rushing magic to make it happen. Playing the under at 45.0 (opened at 46.5) as New England keeps things tight with Tom Brady back at Gillette Satdium as a bystander. The place is going to be ROCKIN'.

Also, it is worth noting that the Super Bowl hangover is a real thing. Since 2000, the SB losers are 4-19 versus the spread. Teams that rest their starters completely during the preseason can come out of the gates sluggish, which was pointed out by our guest on a recent BettingPros podcast, Joe Raineri.

As for props, I don't love any listed in normal sportsbooks. But one sticks out to me on Prizepicks.com. JuJu Smith-Schuster UNDER 18.5 receiving yards on his first two receptions. Philadelphia ranked tied for second in lowest yards per pass completion (10.1) and fifth in average depth of target faced (7.1). Smith-Schuster had the 11th-lowest average depth of target. Unless he rips off a massive catch-and-run, JuJu likely won't surpass 18.5 receiving yards on two receptions working so closely to the line of scrimmage. In this same matchup in the Super Bowl versus these same Eagles, Smith-Schuster totaled just 13 yards on his first two receptions. Averaged 7.5 yards per reception on seven receptions.

Chicago Bears (CHI) vs. Green Bay Packers (GB) – Spread: GB +1.5

I am siding with the Packers and the points because Jordan Love is in a solid spot against the Chicago Bears. Chicago's defense has made upgrades on the personnel side to improve from their 32nd DVOA ranking from a season ago. But it remains to be seen how quickly those improvements will take shape, giving Love and company an opportunity to take advantage. The Bears have the 31st-ranked DL per PFF due to a severe lack of pass-rush juice, which should allow Love ample time in the pocket to get the ball to his flurry of young playmakers. I like the over on Jordan Love's 202.5 passing yards prop. BettingPros has him projected well over that number at 228 yards.

Meanwhile, Justin Fields could struggle with an unfavorable matchup in the trenches. With some injuries hitting the Bears' offensive line during the preseason - no Teven Jenkins and Cody Whitehair moving from center to guard - expect the Packers to make life tough on the Bears offense in Week 1. They finished 8th in pressure rate last season. Against Fields - who has a propensity to take sacks - Green Bay's defense has scored 9, 10, and 15 fantasy points in their three previous matchups versus Chicago under current defensive coordinator Joe Barry. Fields was pressured on 40% of his dropbacks versus Green Bay in 2022, posting a 0-3 TD-INT ratio. The Bears QB will likely be fine with his own rushing added to his fantasy profile, but I'd hardly say this is the spot or game where we see Fields' massive NFL leap as a passer. Fields is 0-4 versus Green Bay in his career, with an average margin of loss of nearly 13 points.

I also expect running back A.J. Dillon to get some healthy usage in this spot. Dillon ran wild versus the Bears’ defense the last time he faced them, going for 93 yards and 1 TD on 18 carries. A heavy dosage of Dillon seems to be the Packers' fancy because earlier in the season, he saw the exact same workload of 18 carries (albeit for 61 yards). The 2022 game logs suggest we should expect a healthy dosage of Dillon versus a beatable Bears defensive line as the Packers offense looks for balance in the post-Aaron Rodgers era. Bet the rushing yards over at 40.5 yards (-120 BetMGM).

Denver Broncos (DEN) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (LV) – Spread: LV +3.5

People think that betting on preseason games is stupid. But I believe it's not. Because it can give you a glimpse of what the public and market think about teams based on expectations. Insert the 2023 Denver Broncos, who everyone and their mother-in-law is convinced will right the ship with Sean Payton at the helm after a disastrous 2022 season. The Broncos went 1-2 versus the spread during the preseason and 1-2 straight up despite being the favored team in all contests. I bring this up not to suggest these preseason games are indicative of how Denver will play in the regular season but to point out that the public seems fully bought back into the Broncos being a team worth backing in the betting markets. And that's despite quarterback Russell Wilson carrying a combined 10-19 record over the last two seasons. His .345% winning percentage ranks 39th among 43 qualifying quarterbacks since the start of 2021. The only QBs that have lost more games over that span are Justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence. Fields, Davis Mills, and Baker Mayfield are the only QBs with a worse winning percentage.

New Raiders QB Jimmy Garoppolo is 16-9 over his last 25 games. Garoppolo is no world-beater, but when's kept healthy and upright, he can win games for the teams he plays on. His supporting cast - specifically the offensive line and offensive head coach-are downgraded from what he had in SF, but the Raiders are hardly short on offensive weapons between Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs, Jakobi Meyers, and Hunter Renfrow. And until I see Payton work his magic on Wilson, I'll continue to fade the overvalued Broncos.

As for props, there's not much certainty with all the changes from last year. So, in cases like this, I check out the BettingPros prop bet cheat sheet. And it finds the best value on Jakobi Meyers' reception prop at 3.5. His projection is 4.1 receptions, and it comes in at plus-money (+110) on DraftKings Sportsbook. You don't have to squint too much to see Meyers rack up at least four catches, with Davante Adams drawing coverage from stud cornerback Pat Surtain. We saw the Surtain-Adams matchup force targets toward Mack Hollins the last time LV played the Broncos. Hollins commanded nine targets for 6 catches and 52 yards in that Week 11 contest.

New York Giants (NYG) vs. Dallas Cowboys (DAL) – Spread: DAL -3.5

The New York Giants were 11-8 toward the under last season. In their two games versus the Cowboys' top-ranked defense, they were held to 20 or fewer points. The over hit at 48 points when these teams met on Thanksgiving. Even with Dak Prescott at quarterback, the over only hit because of a last-second and meaningless TD pass from Daniel Jones. I am skeptical that we will see major offensive fireworks on New York's side of the ball up against one of the NFL's strongest defenses. On the flip side, Dallas will be less aggressive on offense without Kellen Moore calling plays. With Moore and Prescott at quarterback playing on the road, Dallas was 2-5 in terms of hitting the closing line over (29%). That was while the Cowboys ran the third-most plays in the NFL, AND that's going to decrease with Mike McCarthy running the show.

For Sunday night props, I am taking full advantage of the public sleeping on WR Darius Slayton. He's locked in WR1 on the Giants and offers big-play ability. He has gone over 34.5 receiving yards in seven of his last nine games played. The number is even lower on Underdog (32.5).

I also love the over on Brandin Cooks in his first game with Dallas. 3.5 receptions is too low. He caught at least four passes in all but two games last season (85%) on a horrible Texans offense. The projections have him pegged with 4.3 receptions.

New York Jets (NYJ) vs. Buffalo Bills (BUF) – Spread: NYJ +2.5

Josh Allen is 3-1 versus Jets head coach Robert Saleh over the past two seasons. The lone loss came back in Week 9 of last year, in a game where the Bills QB suffered an elbow injury. Buffalo was an 11-point favorite entering that contest. Obviously, upgrading at quarterback with Aaron Rodgers in New York makes this a much closer contest, but not to the extent where Buffalo should remain just a 1.5-point or 2.5-point road favorite. Buffalo beat Rodgers 27-17 back in Week 8 of the 2020 season as double-digit favorites. It should also be noted that before dropping that Week 9 contest vs. Gang Green, Buffalo was 3-1 on the road versus the reigning SB champs, Lamar Jackson-led Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs. Their only road loss came in a crazy hot weather game in Miami.

My MNF prop card is filled up with a lot of picks that I love.

Jets second-year WR Garrett Wilson will be Aaron Rodgers' go-to target all year long. And it will be on full display in Week 1. This number is just going to increase as the season progresses. Keep in mind, last year, in games started by non-Zach Wilson Jets QBs, Wilson averaged over 6 catches, 11 targets, and 82 receiving yards per game. Gabe Davis is a full fade versus the Jets' lockdown secondary, and if he beats me with a deep ball, so be it. The Jets allowed the fewest yards and catches to WRs last season. Davis went under 45.5 receiving yards in 10 of 17 games last season, going 0-2 versus New York. The Dalvin Cook rushing prop sits at 40.5 yards, and I just think it's too low for a presumable starter. Note that the lead Jets RB last year - one game Michael Carter, the other Zonovan Knight - both surpassed 70 rushing yards and scored TDs.


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