NFL Betting Strategy: Home-Field Advantage (2022)
Home-field advantage (HFA) is the inherent benefit each team has when playing in their home stadium. In the NFL, a rough estimate of seasonal HFA can be calculated by differentiating point totals between the home-team and the visitor; last season, league-wide HFA settled near 1.7 points.
The value of HFA has been long ingrained into our fandom. However, some corrections must be made to what we perceive that value to be.
In the NFL, it is not unusual for individual teams to experience heightened periods of HFA. These periods of success, however, are not indicative of some future advantage and often linger in the minds of fans and sports bettors alike.
For example, over the past half-decade, the Seattle Seahawks’ esteemed HFA of the Legion of Boom era has all-but vanished, yet nobody has seemed to notice.
Seattle Seahawks Rolling HFA
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2021 |
| 4.76 | 5.87 | 5.16 | 4.10 | 1.94 | 3.79 | 2.03 | 2.45 | 0.49 | 0.85 |
An important note: For the remainder of the article, HFA will be described as a team’s average margin of victory when playing in their home stadium versus on the road. In an effort to minimize variance, each measure of HFA will be calculated over the previous five seasons with extra weight given to more recent years.
Also of note: The 2020 season has been omitted because games were played in mostly empty stadiums due to COVID-19. Games played at neutral sites have also been discarded.
Furthermore, HFA on the whole has been gradually declining over the years, and the longstanding axiom that home-field is worth three-points in the NFL is no longer true.
League-Wide Rolling HFA
| 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 |
| 2.74 | 2.72 | 3.09 | 2.31 | 2.49 | 2.51 | 2.44 | 2.28 | 2.62 |
| 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2021 |
| 2.60 | 2.78 | 2.69 | 2.28 | 2.37 | 2.39 | 2.37 | 1.56 | 1.60 |
Additionally, on a game-to-game basis, a team’s HFA is almost unpredictable. Myriad underlying factors believed to influence a team’s HFA include:
- Game Importance
- Weather
- Stadium Attendance / Noise Levels
- Grass Field v. Artificial Turf
- Opponent Travel Distance
- Opponent Rest v. Home Rest
… To name a few.
Intuitively, HFA is not created equal, and despite overall HFA being in the midst of a gradual decline, certain teams have punctuated their advantage in recent seasons.
Top Rolling HFA Entering 2022
| GB | PIT | MIA | JAX | NYJ | DAL | HOU | CHI | DEN | MIN |
| 5.21 | 3.79 | 3.53 | 3.28 | 3.09 | 3.03 | 2.99 | 2.79 | 2.49 | 2.46 |
Note: while some teams on this list were among the worst in the NFL, their heightened measure of HFA is simply a reflection of how much worse they performed away from their home stadium; as is the definition of HFA.
In summation, any accurate prediction of HFA in 2022 would be a measure of sheer luck. Past successes are not indicative of some future advantage; and, however stimulating, purely ranking teams’ HFA entering the season does not offer much utility of its own. While I could expound some proprietary measure of HFA, a more useful investment is likely to uncover what oddsmakers discern each team’s advantage to be.
For a more in-depth look at the variance of HFA, I encourage the reader the check out Robby Greer’s work at nfeloapp.com. Robby quantifies each team’s advantage in a similar manner and provides an interface useful for visualizing each HFA in relation to league average.
Calculating HFA Prior to the 2022 Season
The crux of the idea is that the lookahead lines for every game of the 2022 season must provide an intrinsic measure of what oddsmakers believe each team’s HFA to be. And thus, by this measure, there must be value in teams whose true advantage deviates most from what the sportsbooks deem it to be.
By scaling each spread line to an opponent’s projected win total, and by differentiating each team’s spread in home vs. away games, it is possible to quantify a Market-Derived HFA.
The purpose of scaling each spread line to a win total is meant to minimize the effect that varying strength of schedule would have when comparing each team’s advantage.
E.g., a six-point favorite versus an opponent with a win total set at 11.5 would be weighted near equal to a favorite of eight points versus a team with a win total set at 8.5.
-6 x (11.5 ℠17) ≈ -8 x (8.5 ℠17)
Market-Derived HFA for the 2021 Season
| SEA | 3.55 | MIA | 2.16 | CAR | 1.79 | PHI | 1.02 |
| TEN | 3.22 | GB | 2.10 | KC | 1.77 | SF | 1.02 |
| MIN | 2.87 | LAC | 2.06 | LV | 1.73 | DET | 0.96 |
| LAR | 2.69 | ATL | 1.95 | JAX | 1.69 | ARI | 0.96 |
| NE | 2.60 | BUF | 1.88 | PIT | 1.66 | TB | 0.90 |
| NYJ | 2.40 | CIN | 1.86 | NO | 1.48 | CHI | 0.69 |
| DEN | 2.34 | NYG | 1.83 | WAS | 1.25 | HOU | 0.35 |
| DAL | 2.19 | IND | 1.81 | BAL | 1.20 | CLE | — |
Note: Browns games have been omitted from the data entirely with their futures market still being established. Keep in mind that this has some effect when calculating Market-Derived HFA for teams that will play Cleveland this season.
This new metric is simply a measure of the degree to which change in venue alters each team’s spread throughout the season, and it averages out to roughly 1.8 points with the omission of Cleveland Browns games. A larger number indicates a greater disparity in home vs. away spreads, and thus a greater Market-Derived HFA.
Finding Value in Market-Derived HFA
The challenge now is to find outliers in this new metric, as these outliers should provide opportunity in wagering on certain teams this coming season.
In the following section, the reader will find both overvalued and undervalued teams in regard to Market-Derived HFA. The hope is that one will be able to better handicap NFL games this coming season utilizing a factor that may not have been previously considered.
Seattle Seahawks
As previously mentioned, the Seahawks’ Rolling HFA after the 2021 season equates to less than one point, yet their Market-Derived HFA paces the NFL. This is a gross misjudgment in the Seahawks’ current HFA, as Seattle is receiving far too much credit for their reputation as one of the best home teams in the NFL.
With star QB Russell Wilson’s departure to Denver, this sustained confidence in Seattle is especially alarming. Proceed with caution when betting on Seattle to cover the spread at home this season.
Los Angeles Rams
In their debut season at SoFi Stadium, the reigning Super Bowl champions’ pathetic home crowd was a consistent talking point. Perhaps their triumph of a season ago enhances their benefit in playing at SoFi, but their Market-Derived HFA of 2.69 is still without justification.
Since 2017, the Rams’ first with HC Sean McVay, no team has experienced less of an advantage when playing in their home stadium. Be extremely cautious betting the Rams this season, as any HFA they might have has likely been priced out.
New Orleans Saints
Despite a relatively modest Market-Derived HFA of 1.48 points, be wary betting the Saints at home. As Drew Brees’ game declined during the latter half of the 2010s, so did New Orleans’ lethal HFA. In fact, the Saints have had a better average margin of victory in road games than they have in home contests since 2018.
The reputation of the Superdome exceeds its current advantage. With Jameis Winston now helming the QB position and legendary HC Sean Payton having moved on, be reluctant when betting the Saints to cover at home this season.
Houston Texans
Even in an era of dwindling HFA, a pre-season Market-Derived HFA of nearly zero cannot be justified. The Texans’ HFA has been well above league-average since 2017, and despite much of this dominance having occurred under an old regime, Houston’s results from a season ago offer no indication of a diminishing HFA.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers have had the best HFA in recent years. Green Bay’s home dominance has been nothing short of historic, and their Market-Derived HFA falls well below the bar Aaron Rodgers has set in Lambeau.
Since Matt LaFleur took over at the Packers HC in 2019, Green Bay has gone 17-7 ATS at home, covering by an average margin of nearly four points. And, at some point, this historic run of dominance can be rationalized only as the Packers being undervalued at home.
Bet Green Bay early and often to cover the spread when playing in Lambeau.
Chicago Bears
The Bears share many similarities to the Texans this season. Both teams are projected to be among the worst in the NFL, and neither team has a Market-Derived HFA that accurately reflects their true advantage.
Despite a poor 3-5 record ATS in home contests a season ago, the Bears had a +12-point differential ATS in these contests: an indication that they may have been “unlucky†in 2021. Additionally, Chicago was far worse on the road a season ago, and the Bears’ Rolling HFA remains in the top third of the NFL entering the 2022 season.
Additional Notes
Rolling Market-Derived HFA
| HOU | 3.12 | SEA | 2.35 | NYG | 1.98 | CHI | 1.65 |
| IND | 2.96 | MIN | 2.30 | SF | 1.93 | NYJ | 1.59 |
| GB | 2.89 | CAR | 2.22 | WAS | 1.89 | JAX | 1.58 |
| BUF | 2.66 | BAL | 2.15 | CLE | 1.87 | PIT | 1.40 |
| ARI | 2.57 | LAC | 2.14 | DAL | 1.84 | TEN | 1.19 |
| CIN | 2.56 | LV | 2.11 | TB | 1.82 | DET | 1.18 |
| MIA | 2.44 | NO | 2.02 | DEN | 1.72 | LAR | 1.09 |
| ATL | 2.41 | KC | 1.98 | PHI | 1.69 | NE | 1.01 |
This is measure of deviation in home vs. away spread lines over the past five seasons. Note that while these games were not scaled to opponent difficulty, over a five-season time frame it is likely that most teams faced similar competition in home and away games. Nevertheless, utility may still be found in identifying teams whose 2022 Market-Derived HFA deviate most from this metric.
For instance:
- The Titans, Rams, and Patriots have had very similar spreads in home and away games, yet these teams enter 2022 with a top-tier Market-Derived HFA
- Over the past five seasons, no team’s spreads have deviated more than Houston’s. In 2022, no spreads deviate less than the Texans’
The Omission of the 2020 Season
While other measures of HFA may choose to include the ‘â€COVID year†in their data set, I felt its omission was warranted. The extent to which the absence of fans influenced each team’s HFA cannot accurately be measured, and a replication of such circumstances is highly unlikely.
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