NFL Black Friday Touchdown Scorers Picks & Predictions: Week 13 (2024)
We have a special Black Friday NFL matchup between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Kansas City Chiefs on Friday afternoon. Millions of dollars will get bet on this game. However, which touchdown prop bets should you bet? Let's take a look.
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Black Friday Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Las Vegas Raiders First TD Scorer: Jakobi Meyers (+500)
The Raiders lost Gardner Minshew to a season-ending broken collarbone in Week 12, meaning Aidan O'Connell will make his third start this year on Friday. The second-year quarterback hasn't played since Week 7 because of a broken thumb. However, expect the offense to remain the same despite the switch at quarterback. Meanwhile, Meyers has two receiving scores this season, including the first Las Vegas touchdown in the Week 8 matchup against the division rivals.
While the Chiefs have a talented defense, opposing teams have found more success throwing the ball against them. Kansas City has surrendered 15 passing touchdowns compared to nine rushing scores this year. More importantly, the first touchdown scored against the back-to-back Super Bowl champions has been a passing one in 63.6% of the team's matchups. Furthermore, the first touchdown scored against the Chiefs has been by a wide receiver in three of the past four games.
Kansas City Chiefs First TD Scorer: Travis Kelce (+370)
Surprisingly, the future Hall of Famer has only two receiving touchdowns despite leading the Chiefs in targets with 88, totaling 34 more than anyone else. Meanwhile, Kelce has had mixed results when facing the Raiders. He famously had a four-touchdown performance against the division rivals a few years ago. Meanwhile, the veteran tight end had the first Kansas City touchdown in the Week 10 win over the Denver Broncos.
More importantly, Kelce found the end zone against Las Vegas in the Week 8 matchup, scoring from five yards out. Meanwhile, the Raiders have struggled to keep opposing tight ends from scoring. They have surrendered seven receiving touchdowns to tight ends, the second-most in the NFL. Furthermore, Las Vegas has given up six of those touchdowns over their past four matchups. They have surrendered two or more touchdowns to tight ends in two of their past three contests.
Anytime TD Scorer: Isiah Pacheco (-170)
Kansas City's offense will get a massive boost this week with Pacheco returning to the lineup. Head coach Andy Reid told the media on Wednesday that only a setback would keep the star running back from playing against the Raiders. He suffered a fractured fibula in Week 2, forcing him to miss the past nine games. Pacheco found the end zone in his lone healthy contest this season, scoring in Week 1.
Don't be surprised if the Chiefs welcome him back into the lineup with a few goal-line opportunities. While Kareem Hunt has played well as his replacement, Pacheco is the far superior runner. Meanwhile, Las Vegas has surrendered 11 touchdowns to running backs in 11 games. They have given up at least one rushing touchdown to opposing running backs in four of their past six games, including one to Hunt in the Week 8 matchup.
Anytime TD Scorer: Noah Gray (+270)
Travis Kelce remains the unquestioned No. 1 tight end on the team. However, the Chiefs have expanded Gray's role lately. The veteran tight end averaged 2.3 targets per game over the first 10 weeks, totaling four or more twice. Furthermore, he had zero receiving touchdowns during those 10 weeks. By comparison, Gray has seen at least four targets in back-to-back games. More importantly, the veteran tight end has turned into a scoring machine.
Over the past two weeks, Gray has led the NFL in receiving touchdowns (four) and end zone targets (three). He has two scores in back-to-back games, including the first Kansas City touchdown last week. Meanwhile, the Raiders have had issues keeping tight ends out of the end zone. Last week, the Denver Broncos' tight ends had only one reception against them. However, Las Vegas had surrendered six receiving touchdowns to tight ends over their previous three games.
Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.