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NFL Chrismas Day Betting Primer & Expert Picks: Week 16 (Monday)

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Tis the season! Let’s dive into the Christmas NFL matchups for Week 16. Here are my top picks and player prop bet picks for NFL Week 16 Monday football.

Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value, & Star Rating >>

NFL Sunday Betting Primer: Week 16 (Christmas)

Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders

This game SCREAMs under at the 40.5 point total.

For starters…The Chiefs are 5-1 toward the under at home this season. An average of 40 points per game scored. These teams average 39.5 points per game.

Seven of the Chiefs’ last eight games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.

Five of the Chiefs’ last seven games against AFC opponents have gone UNDER the total points line. 7 of the Chiefs’ last 10 games overall have gone UNDER the total points line.

Additionally, five of the Raiders’ last 7 games have gone UNDER the total points line

Las Vegas’ defense has also been vastly underrated: 11th in total DVOA and 7th versus the pass in DVOA. Only one QB they have faced has thrown for 300-plus yards.

8/10 QBs that have faced the Chiefs have gone UNDER their projected passing yards total this season. Their defense is their strongest unit.

With passing yards hard to come by on both sides, the under is the easy play to make here.

As for the sides…

The underdogs have covered the spread in six of the Chiefs’ last seven games. The Raiders are 5-1-1 ATS over their last 7 games.

Both teams are covering at a sub-50% clip as the favorite/underdog this season. Ergo, I’m not comfortable with backing either side in this spot. The Chiefs have been overrated ATS at home, going 0-2 ATS in their last two home games (0-2 straight up). Avoid the sides and take the under.

The biggest mismatch is that the Raiders defense cannot stop the run. Isiah Pacheco will be back for the Chiefs in Week 16. But a run-heavy game script projects for a lower-scoring affair. And Pacheco’s rushing prop is set very high based on the matchup at 67.5 rushing yards. But coming off minor shoulder surgery, hard to imagine he has a CRAZY workload. Would either avoid it altogether or bet the under. He has gone over 67.5 rushing yards twice in his 2 of his last 8 games played. And against these same Raiders – just 55 yards.

Jakobi Meyers has gone under 4.5 receptions and 37.5 receiving yards in six of Aidan O’Connell’s 8 starts this season. He’s hit the over in his last 2 of 4 games (including 2 straight unders, but the larger sample size leans toward the under on Meyers.

My Picks

  • Under 40.5

My Props

Philadelphia Eagles (-13.5) vs. New York Giants

The Eagles are 5-1 toward the over at home this season. They have been an over-machine at home this season. Nearly 60 points have been scored on average. These teams average 44 points combined this season.

A classic example of the stoppable force versus the movable object. With the line bet down from 44 points to 43, I think the value is actually on the over. In Tommy DeVito’s 5 starts, the team is 3-2 toward the over. Point totals of 66, 46 and 50.

As for the sides…

The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games against teams that held a losing record. The Eagles have also failed to cover the spread in 9 of their last 10 games against teams that held a losing record. Good teams win. Great teams cover.

This Philadelphia team is not what its record at 10-4 suggests. They have been the luckiest team this season, rallying from first-half deficits every week. In the last three weeks, the Eagles have been exposed to the 49ers, Cowboys and Seahawks. It was bound to happen based on how close to the margins the Eagles were winning against NFC juggernauts.

The Eagles’ average winning margin is just 7 points.

Their defense is horrible. The defense cannot stop anyone in the red zone. 28th in red-zone conversion rate allowed.

They have also covered just 3 spreads when they have allowed 20 points on defense. 3-5-2 ATS when their defense allows 20 points. Been very lucky to snag pushes at the right times. As for New York…they have scored 20-plus points in 2 of their last 3 games with Tommy DeVito as their starting quarterback. 3-2 ATS.

Even so, the Giants have lost six of their last 7 road games.

Too many conflicting trends going against the Eagles to back them with 13.5 points at home against a division rival. Take the over. The Giants won’t be able to stop the Eagles’ offense, and Big Blue can do enough offensively against a bottom-dwelling defense to get this over the projected total.

Jalen Hurts has thrown for fewer than 230.5 yards in 5 of his last 6 games. The Giants have allowed the fewest passing yards per game to QBs over the last four weeks (145 per game). Hurts has also attempted 32 or more passes just once in his last 6 games.

4 of the last 7 QBs the Eagles have faced have gone for 300-plus passing yards. Again, why I like the over in this game.

The Eagles are allowing the most fantasy points per game to slot WRs this season. Wan’Dale Robinson. Come on down. Caught 4 balls last week, and has at least 4 receptions in his last 3 games. 8 of his 10 closest comparable WRs have gone OVER their reception numbers versus the Eagles this season.

I also love the over on Darren Waller’s receiving against the Eagles. Last week, Waller drew 6 targets (18% target share) for 4 catches and 40 yards. Was hyper-targeted as he only played 42% of the snaps.

With his snaps likely to increase, he should fly over 37.5 receiving yards versus the Eagles’ defense that ranks 29th in DVOA versus tight ends this season.

My Picks

  • Over 43

My Props

San Francisco 49ers (-6) vs. Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore has covered the spread in the last 8 of the last 10 games against a team with a winning record.

The Ravens have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games as underdogs. This season they are 100% ATS as underdogs. (1-0). Week 2 at the Bengals. They lost, but covered. Per Action Network, the Ravens are also 19-5 ATS (79%) as an underdog since 2018. When Jackson starts, they are 11-2 ATS (8-5 straight up) as an underdog.

The Ravens are also 6-1 on the road this season. The only loss coming versus the Bengals in Week 2.

As I have pointed out in previous editions of the BettingPros Primer, the Ravens are a team that plays to the level of their competition. Against good/winning teams, they bring out their best. I expect them to get their best from Lamar Jackson.

Meanwhile, Brock Purdy will face a Ravens secondary that has allowed just 214 passing yards per game to opposing QBs this season. Only 3 QBs they have faced since Week 7 have gone over 230 passing yards. The Baltimore defense is allowing the league’s lowest yards per attempt (4.9) and the second-best red-zone conversion rate. 5th-best defense on 3rd downs.

Still, it will be a tough task for Baltimore. The 49ers offense ranks No. 1 in the red zone, 1st in yards per attempt and 4th in third-down conversion rate. In his last 8 games, Purdy has thrown for fewer than 270 yards twice.

But that’s not to say they cannot be matched. The Ravens offense ranks 8th best in terms of third-down conversion rate, 10th in red-zone conversion rate and 4th in yards per pass attempt (7.7).

It’s clear that backing Jackson as an underdog has been super profitable. The numbers show it, and Jackson said to reporters himself this week that he likes being the underdog. And it got me thinking…when have we seen the Ravens get blown out in the Jackson era? Seems like when he is playing, they always have a chance to win.

Jackson has lost just 6 career games by 7 or more points. 12 games by 6 or more points. Twice in the postseason. The other 2 postseason losses were by 6-plus points.

In the regular season, the worst losses came versus the Bengals, Browns, Steelers, Chiefs and Dolphins. Note that none of these teams are NFC teams. Jackson has twenty-seven career losses, nearly half of which have come by 6 or more points.

Even if Baltimore comes up just short of victory here, I think Jackson dons the Superman Cape and keeps this game within 6 points. Note the 49ers have not covered the spread in their last 3 home games.

More on the game total. Move over baby.

The 49ers have scored at least 27 points in 11 of their 14 games played this season. The Ravens have scored 20-plus points in 9 straight games. We are getting to 47 total points EASILY.

The 49ers are 3-3 toward the O/U at home. 46 points scored on average. These teams average 45.5 points scored.

Each of the Ravens’ last three games as underdogs has gone OVER the total points line, including back in Week 2 (51 points scored).

When they don’t fear an opposing QB or play a top-tier offense, the Ravens tend to go under the game total. I can confidently say, that this matchup is one where they will be facing an above-average if not top-5 overall passer and arguably the No. 1 overall passing offense. They are entering this game knowing they will have to score points to keep pace. As alluded to, you want to be on the underdogs in projected shootouts.

As for player props…

Baltimore has allowed an over to an opposing tight end in 5 of their last 7 games, with four tight ends going over 50 yards. However, they do not allow many receptions to tight ends (4.7 per game).

This George Kittle receptions prop at 3.5 has been EZ money this season. We bet it last week to flying colors. Rinse and repeat with it again listed a plus odds. Kittle has 3.5 or more receptions in just two games played this season alongside a healthy Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk.

Another interesting note about the Ravens’ defense is it allows a lot of receptions to WRs (8th-most). But they keep the yardage in check (10.5 yards per catch, 32nd).

The 49ers have allowed the 2nd-most completions this season to QBs. Jackson ranks 11th in the NFL in completion rate (66%) averaging 19 per game. The last 3 QBs the 49ers have faced have completed 22-plus passes.

My Picks

  • Over 46.5
  • Ravens +6

My Props

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:

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