NFL Christmas Betting Primer Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 17)
Get ready for a special Christmas NFL double-header on Netflix that's sure to keep you on the edge of your seat!
Week 17 brings two thrilling matchups to kick off the holiday season, starting with an AFC clash between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Kansas City Chiefs, and then later in the day, we have the Baltimore Ravens taking on the Houston Texans.
These two games feature high-stakes action with teams pushing for playoff positioning, making them perfect for bettors looking to capitalize on exciting opportunities. I'm Andrew Erickson, here to guide you through all the key matchups, spreads, totals, and player prop angles to help you make the best bets for Christmas Day.
Whether you're sharpening your same-game parlays or zeroing in on individual player performances, this guide has all the insights you need. Prepare for a full day of NFL action that could impact the playoff race, so get your bets in, set your lineups, and get ready for a holiday feast of football!
Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sides:
- The Chiefs have covered the spread in 12 of their last 15 games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Chiefs have covered the spread in 12 of their last 21 games.
- The Chiefs have won 20 of their last 21 games.
- The underdogs have covered the spread in 19 of the Chiefs’ last 28 games.
- The Chiefs have covered the spread in seven of their last 10 road games.
- Overall, they are 8-10-1 as road favorites (44%).
- The Chiefs have won eight of their last nine games as underdogs.
- The Chiefs are 50% ATS at home in their last 26 home games
- The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last nine games.
- The Chiefs have scored last in six of their last seven home games.
- The Chiefs have scored first in each of their last five games.
- The Chiefs have covered the spread in each of their last three games against the Steelers.
- The Steelers have won 13 of their last 19 games.
- The Steelers have covered the spread in seven of their last nine games.
- The Steelers are 5-2-1 ATS as a home underdog.
- In six of the Steelers’ last 10 games, the first score has been a Steelers Field Goal.
- Their opponents have scored last in four of the Steelers’ last six games.
- The Steelers are 15-10 ATS on the road (60%)
- The Steelers are 8-8 ATS and on the ML on the road since the start of 2023.
- They are 10-8 as road underdogs. The only road games they haven't covered were against the Browns/Bills/Eagles/Ravens or contests where they were less than 2-point underdogs or by double-digits.
- As road favorites, the Steelers are 5-4 ATS.
- The Steelers are 7-5 as home favorites ATS.
Totals:
- Fourteen of the Chiefs’ last 22 games have gone UNDER the total points line (16 of the last 24).
- Three of the Chiefs’ last four road games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Since the start of 2023, the Chiefs have allowed just two teams to score 27 points against them (the Bills in Week 11 and the Panthers in Week 12).
- They are undefeated when they hold teams to 17 points or less.
- Nineteen of the Chiefs' last 25 games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.
- KC is 4-4 toward the over at home this season (over 42 points per game).
- The Steelers are 7-8 toward the under this season. 2-4 O/U at home this season (39.7 points per game).
- Seven of the Steelers’ last 10 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Seven of the Steelers’ last 15 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Ten of the Steelers' last 19 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Six of the Steelers’ last seven road games have gone OVER the total points line.
Overall:
Reinforcements are on the way for the Pittsburgh Steelers. No. 1 WR George Pickens was listed as a full participant in practice on Monday and is set for a return to the lineup after a three-game hiatus. However, the Steelers’ defense won’t be as lucky given that cornerback Joey Porter Jr. is out after suffering a knee injury versus the Ravens.
But given how bad the Steelers offense has played without Pickens, I think Pittsburgh is fine with the tradeoff. With Wilson and Pickens active, the Steelers are 4-1 ATS.
And we know this Steelers defense will make this game a close contest. Pittsburgh thrives in situations as underdogs, and I love the fact that they are hosting the Chiefs after back-to-back losses against the Eagles/Ravens.
And we know too well that the Chiefs don't blow teams out. Yes, they took care of business against a fraudulent Houston Texans team, but the lines were way off based on the Patrick Mahomes ankle injury.
The only "safe" bet on the Chiefs this season has been them as small favorites. After a second straight cover last week versus Houston, KC has now covered four of their five games this season as small favorites.
I think that a small number is key because the Chiefs usually have low covers on the road due to an overinflated spread. That is not the case in Week 17 with a 2.5-point line.
I think this game is a masterclass between two of the best-coached teams in the NFL, and it will be settled by a field goal (and a likely Chiefs victory). I'll avoid picking sides for this matchup and go straight for the over on the game total.
I like the over at 44 points.
Without Pickens, in the last three weeks, two of the Steelers games have finished under the projected game total. The Ravens drove last week over the projected game total to 51 points. There's only one game the Steelers have played this season with Russ/Pickens where the game didn't go over the total (5-1). And that was against Baltimore, with the line set at 48.5 points.
With Pickens back, I fully expect an improved effort from the Steelers’ offense. The Chiefs defense has been overrated since they lost cornerback Jaylen Watson.
Case in point: three of the Chiefs’ last four road games have gone OVER the total points line. And seven of the Steelers’ last 10 games have gone OVER the total points line.
It feels somewhat point-chasing, given that both teams are coming off OVERs, but the trends are strong toward offense in the early game for Christmas.
Props:
Russell Wilson has tossed for at least 226.5 passing yards in four of his six games played with Pickens healthy this season. Pickens has gone over 64.5 receiving yards in all but one game that Wilson has started this season. And 10 of the last 11 most comparable WRs to have faced the Chiefs have gone over their receiving yards prop.
Pickens’s return is great for Russ but not for tight end Pat Freiermuth. With Wilson and Pickens healthy in the lineup, the Steelers tight end has posted three games with fewer than 30 receiving yards.
Xavier Worthy was the top receiver for the Chiefs in Week 16, hauling in 7 receptions for 65 yards and a touchdown, with 67 air yards and an average depth of target (aDOT) of 6.09. Worthy also had a solid target share of 27% and 29% air yards share. The former Texas product was targeted on 32% of his route run and earned six red-zone opportunities.
According to Next Gen Stats, of Worthy’s 65 receiving yards, 61 came after the catch, the most YAC in a game of Worthy’s rookie season. Worthy caught all seven receptions on short passes (under 10 air yards), recording the shortest average route depth (9.6) of his career.
The rookie has been coming on in the second half of the season, leading the Chiefs in receiving yards since Week 11. He has four catches or more in six straight games, with 40-plus yards in all contests. I like the over on his 44.5 receiving yards in Week 17 and the alternate over on his 3.5 receptions on Prizepicks. Most sportsbooks have his receptions at 4.5, which I don't like as much, given the return of Marquise Brown.
Brown followed Worthy with five receptions for 45 yards, averaging 7 yards per target with 56 air yards in his Chiefs debut. Brown's Target share was 20% on a total of eight targets. He only played 27% of the snaps in his first NFL game of the season. But he was hyper-targeted, earning a target on 57% of his routes run.
Chiefs head coach Andy Reid said that Brown's snaps will increase, and therefore, I love taking his anytime TD odds at close to3-to-1. He had a red zone target last week. 16-to-1 odds to score the 1st TD. HOLLYWOOD.
Jaylen Warren has at least 25 receiving yards in five of his last seven games.
My Picks:
- Over 44
- Russell Wilson OVER 226.5 passing yards
- George Pickens OVER 64.5 receiving yards
- Jaylen Warren OVER 19.5 receiving yards
- Marquise Brown anytime TD (+275)
Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans
Sides:
- The Texans have covered the spread in their last eight games as underdogs following a loss.
- The Texans have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 16 games and are 6-9 ATS this season.
- The Texans are 8-15 ATS in their last 23 games as favorites (8-13 ATS as a favorite since the start of 2023).
- Thirteen of their last 18 wins have been by seven or fewer points.
- Houston is just 16-16 against the spread over its last 32 games.
- Houston is 4-4 as road favorites. 7-12-1 ATS as a favorite.
- Houston is 10-6-1 ATS as a road underdog (67%) and 3-6-1 ATS as home favorites.
- The Texans have won seven of their last nine home games.
- The Texans have scored first in nine of their last ten games.
- They are 9-20-1 ATS as underdogs, while 6-7 ATS (45%) as home underdogs ATS.
- The Texans have won the first half in 10 of their last 12 games.
- In four of the Texans' last seven games, the first score has been a Texans Touchdown.
- The Ravens have covered the spread in eight of their last 13 games.
- Baltimore is 16-7 on the money line as home favorites but just 10-13 ATS as home favorites. 7-4-1 as home favorites in their last 12.
- Baltimore is 16-6 ATS on the road in the last two seasons and 12-5 ATS as a road favorite in their last 17 applicable appearances.
- The Ravens have covered the spread in 12 of their last 14 games following a loss.
- Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the Ravens have covered the spread in 13 of their last 14 games following a division loss.
Totals:
- Houston is 5-10 O/U this season. Ten of the Texans' last 14 games have gone UNDER the total points line. 1-6 O/U at home (43 points per game).
- According to DraftKings Sportsbook, eight of the Texans' last nine games as home favorites have all ended UNDER the total points line.
- The Texans have gone under in 21 of their last 34 games, which featured them playing many offenses averaging fewer than 20 points per game.
- Seven of the Texans' last 11 games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Most of the 2023 Ravens games that went over came at home (11 of their last 15), but they tended to be against better offenses.
- The Ravens are 12-3 toward the over this season.
- Twelve of the Ravens’ last 15 games have gone OVER the total points line. Their lowest total game this season has been 34 points (previous lows of 43 and 45 points).
- The Ravens have gone OVER in 16 of the last 20 games (16 of the previous 22).
- Seven of the Ravens' last eight road games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Nine of the Ravens’ last 11 games have gone OVER the total points line.
Overall:
It's going to take a lot more than 5.5 points to get me onto the Houston Texans. The only time Houston has been a decent bet has been when they have been road underdogs. As home underdogs, the Texans are 6-7 ATS (46%). It is not terrible by any means, but it is hardly a reason to back H-town.
Besides, when the Ravens are favored on the road, you want to bet on them. 16-7 on the road ATS (70%) and 12-6 ATS as road favorites (67%).
Lamar Jackson is playing at an MVP level, and C.J. Stroud is not. Even against a strong Texans defense, I think Jackson continues to show out.
And the Ravens defense can make the Texans' one-dimensional. They are elite versus the run, and Houston only has Nico Collins left after they lost Tank Dell to another season-ending injury.
The Ravens' defense has also improved dramatically in their last five games, allowing an average of sub-200 passing yards. I think this is going to be tough sledding for the Texans' offense.
As for the total, it's likely a shy-away point for me. Any game Baltimore plays can be driven over the total. But I just have little faith that Houston will match Baltimore's offensive output.
Houston is 5-10 O/U this season. Ten of the Texans' last 14 games have gone UNDER the total points line. They are 1-6 O/U at home (43 points per game).
Props:
Tight end Dalton Schultz was a safety valve for Stroud in Week 16, grabbing five receptions for 45 yards and a touchdown (22% target share, two red-zone targets). Schultz, who was targeted 8 times, posted a solid 5.5-yard average per reception and was used effectively in the red zone. The biggest winner for Week 17 will be Schultz, given the plus matchup versus the Ravens. He can be a TE1 in the fantasy football championship round.
He plays a near-every-down role and ran a route on 74% of the dropbacks against Kansas City (27% target rate per route run). Schultz has 33-plus receiving yards in four of his last six games. Eight of the last 11 TEs to play Baltimore have gone OVER their receiving yards prop.
The Texans utilized a balanced rushing attack in Week 16. Joe Mixon led the team with 14 carries for 57 yards, averaging 4.1 yards per carry, although he did not reach the end zone. Mixon played 66% of the snaps.
Mixon has rushed for under 60 yards in four of his last six games. His opening rushing yards prop opened at 66.5 rushing yards on and is down to 63.5. One RB has surpassed that number against the Ravens this season (Saquon Barkley). Slam the UNDER. By far, my favorite bet on the Christmas day slate is the under on Joe Mixon’s rushing yards.
My Picks: