NFL Christmas Day Week 16 Picks & Predictions (2022)
Sometimes, decisions made in May look a lot worse six months later. And the NFL’s Week 16 Christmas Day slate is the perfect example of that.
I’m sure the NFL schedule makers felt they nailed it when they decided on this Christmas Day trifecta way back in the spring. Unfortunately, NFL fans will be getting coal in their stockings.
Sunday’s three games will feature just two teams currently projected to play in the postseason: the Miami Dolphins and the 6-8, NFC South-leading Tampa Bay Buccaneers. And frankly, the Bucs barely count. On a holiday when the NBA typically dominates, I’ll be curious to see what the viewership numbers look like considering the disgusting nature of the spread.
But we’re not here to discuss Nielsen ratings. We’re here to find some bets that’ll give us a reason to watch. Here are bets to make for each Christmas Day showdown.
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NFL Christmas Day Week 16 Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)
Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins (-4) | Total 49.5
The first game of the day has the makings to be the best of the Christmas Day trio. The Dolphins are jousting for a playoff spot, while the 6-8 Packers aren’t completely dead yet despite being a relative afterthought in the NFC.
This line has been moving down throughout the week, and the Packers should be able to keep this game within a field goal. Miami’s defense has struggled mightily during the team’s three-game losing streak, yielding more than 400 yards per game. While the Packers’ passing game hasn’t been prolific, it still ranks 14th in DVOA and faces a Dolphins pass defense that ranks 26th in DVOA.
Green Bay’s strength offensively comes on the ground, where it ranks third in DVOA. The key will be whether Green Bay’s offensive line, which ranks second in adjusted line yards, can push the pile against a Dolphins defense that’s been better against the run and ranks fourth in adjusted line yards allowed.
Defensively, Green Bay’s bend, don’t break scheme should be an ideal matchup against the explosive Dolphins offense. The Packers play primarily zone coverage, which should help minimize big plays from Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle.
Green Bay almost invites opponents to run the ball against them and ranks 32nd in run defense DVOA. But Miami ranks 29th in rush rate. If Mike McDaniel sticks to his pass-heavy tendencies, it could play right into defensive coordinator Joe Berry’s hands.
The pick: Green Bay +4 (play to +3.5)
Denver Broncos (-2.5) at Los Angeles Rams | Total 36.5
This is the game the NFL wishes it could have a mulligan on. To be fair, we expected these teams to be much better in the off-season. But holy cow, maybe this is the game to open Christmas presents during.
Russell Wilson is apparently ready to rock and roll, which may actually be a bad thing, considering how awful he’s been. But I suppose he’s an upgrade over Brett Rypien. Meanwhile, Los Angeles will go with Baker Mayfield once again.
These two offenses are miserable; Los Angeles ranks 27th in DVOA, and Denver ranks 28th. However, the Broncos’ defense is the best unit in this game, ranking fourth in DVOA. And while Denver’s weakness defensively is against the run, Los Angeles doesn’t have a ground game capable of exposing that flaw.
This is a game I’d advise staying away from. But if you’ve got to make a pick, I’ll lay the points with the stronger, healthier defense.
The pick: Broncos -2.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7.5) at Arizona Cardinals | Total 40.5
If you aren’t drunk on eggnog because of the midday game, then this contest will surely do the trick. The underperforming, stumbling, bumbling Buccaneers will look to keep their lead in the NFC South against Trace McSorley and the disappointing Cardinals.
McSorley was thrown into action last week after Colt McCoy exited the game with a concussion. The Penn State product struggled, going 7-for-15 with two interceptions. A full week to prepare as the starting QB should help, but he’ll go up against a Tampa defense that could be ready to tee off on him. The Buccaneers still generate plenty of pressure and could get home early and often against a Cardinals offensive line that’s average at best in pass protection.
The question will be whether Arizona can generate enough pressure against a Buccaneers offensive line that’s held the entire offense back. My guess is no, as Arizona has just 31 sacks on the season.
I don’t trust Tampa Bay enough to lay more than a touchdown with them. So instead, we’ll conclude the Christmas card with a more creative bet against McSorley versus this Tampa defense.
The pick: Arizona team total under 15.5 points
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