NFL Conference Championship Early Odds, Picks & Trends (2024)

by Austin MacMillan |
Jan 23, 2024

Here is an early look at NFL Conference Championship odds and trends:

NFL Conference Championship Early Odds, Picks & Trends

Chiefs @ Ravens - Sunday, January 28 - 3:00PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - BAL -3.5; O/U 44.5

Chiefs Trends:

2-0 ATS; 2-0 to the Over in playoff games as an underdog since 2021
2-1 ATS; 2-1 to the Over in road playoff games since 2021
Previous 10 playoff games: 7-3 ATS
Previous 11 games with rest disadvantage: 4-6-1 ATS
Previous 20 games as a road underdog: 13-6-1 ATS; 12-7-1 to the Over
Previous 30 games: 19-11 to the Under
Previous 30 games as an underdog: 19-10-1 ATS; 17-12-1 to the Over
Previous 30 road games: 20-10 to the Over
Previous 43 conference games: 19-23-1 ATS
Andy Reid as an underdog (Career): 50-36-2 ATS
Patrick Mahomes as an underdog (Career): 8-1-1 ATS

Ravens Trends:

Previous 10 playoff games: 7-3 ATS; 5-3-2 to the Under
Previous 10 home playoff games: 8-1-1 to the Under
Previous 10 playoff games as a favorite: 6-4 ATS; 8-1-1 to the Under
Previous 10 games as a favorite: 7-3 ATS
Previous 20 games: 13-7 ATS
Previous 20 home games: 13-7 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a home favorite: 8-12 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
Previous 30 games as a favorite: 21-9 to the Under
Previous 31 games following a win: 13-17-1 ATS
Previous 34 non-divisional games: 20-13-1 ATS
John Harbaugh as a favorite (Career): 87-88-5 ATS
Lamar Jackson as a favorite (Career): 32-33 ATS

Best Bet - Chiefs +3.5

Getting Mahomes as an underdog has been a rare occurrence throughout his career, but he has been extremely profitable in those situations with an insane 8-1-1 ATS record as an underdog. He proved last week that he can get it done on the road in the playoffs, and I see no reason to fade him in an identical spot this week. Baltimore very well might win this game to advance to the Super Bowl, but I trust Mahomes and the Chiefs to keep this game within a field goal.

Lions @ 49ers - Sunday, January 28 - 6:30PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - SF -7; O/U 51

Lions Trends:

1-1 ATS; 1-1 to the Over in playoff games this season
Previous 10 road games: 8-2 ATS
Previous 10 games as a road underdog: 7-3 ATS
Previous 23 games following a win: 15-8 ATS
Previous 30 games: 21-9 ATS; 17-13 to the Over
Previous 30 games as an underdog: 20-10 ATS; 18-12 to the Under
Previous 35 non-divisional games: 23-12 ATS
Previous 38 conference games: 26-12 ATS
Dan Campbell as an underdog (Career): 25-16 ATS
Jared Goff as an underdog (Career): 27-19 ATS

49ers Trends:

4-1 ATS in home playoff games since 2020
4-1 ATS in playoff games as a favorite since 2020
Previous 10 playoff games: 7-3 ATS; 8-2 to the Under
Previous 10 games as a home favorite: 7-3 to the Over
Previous 13 games with rest advantage: 8-5 ATS
Previous 20 home games: 13-7 ATS
Previous 20 games as a home favorite: 13-7 ATS
Previous 30 games: 18-12 ATS; 18-11-1 to the Over
Previous 30 home games: 17-13 to the Over
Previous 38 non-divisional games: 21-17 ATS
Previous 39 games following a win: 24-15 ATS
Previous 43 conference games: 28-15 ATS
Kyle Shanahan as a favorite (Career): 34-37-1 ATS
Brock Purdy as a favorite (Career): 17-8 ATS

Best Bet - Lions +7

The tandem of Jared Goff and Dan Campbell have paid out bettors big time as underdogs in their time with the Lions, both covering well over the 50% mark as underdogs. The 49ers offense was extremely suspect after Deebo left the game early due to injury, and their defense was somewhat surprisingly gashed on the ground by Aaron Jones. It's true that Goff has been shaky playing outdoors in his career, but they should be able to lean on their ground game and their defense has been excellent at defending the run this season. I find 7 to be too many points in this game, and I'll take the Lions to keep this within one possession.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

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NFL Conference Championship Early Odds, Picks & Trends (2024)