NFL Data Angles: Thinking Like an Expert Sports Bettor

Have you ever wondered how to elevate your football research when it comes to sports betting? It begins with adopting a defensive mindset, understanding that matchups are not straightforward, and paying attention to underappreciated NFL data angles.

Here are some guiding principles to follow if you want to break free from relying solely on mainstream data, which often leads to financial losses.

NFL Data Angles to Use

Stop Neglecting Defense 

Everyone knows about quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers in football, but this offensive focus is not limited to casual fans. Even in the highly competitive world of fantasy football, many people are clueless about defensive players. That’s why you often see special teams units grouped with defenses in popular fantasy football formats. Reject this shortcut mentality.

Every offensive team faces a defensive team, and you can’t accurately predict the game’s outcome or identify all angles without considering the individuals trying to defend the ball. Remember, even a balanced approach isn’t enough. You must consciously prioritize defensive player performance to overcome decades of biased media coverage.

You’re on the right track if you can name more than one broadcaster who played defense in their career.

Capitalizing on Defensive Data

I suggest starting with position averages and studying opponents’ allowances, just as you would when analyzing running backs against a defense. While this information may not be readily available among the sea of offensive stats, understanding how and when to use defensive data can reveal game outcomes you didn’t even know existed.

You won’t be caught off guard when the favored team falls short by giving as much consideration to defensive players as you do to offensive ones.

Analyzing Data Flexibility

If you view data as rigid and absolute, you’ll often end up disappointed. Consider this example: Patrick Mahomes threw more touchdowns and fewer interceptions than Phillip Rivers heading into a Sunday night game.

However, relying solely on a single position to determine the game’s outcome is not a recipe for success. Additionally, just because certain data points are higher doesn’t mean Rivers can’t compete against Mahomes.

Both players faced different circumstances throughout their journeys, so understanding why 27 touchdowns are comparable to 25 touchdowns will enhance your handicapping success.

Being Inclusive, Not Conclusive

When deciding who will win, experts and amateurs draw a line in the sand. However, sometimes data points are not definitive, and additional factors need to be considered.

The Super Bowl matchup between the 49ers and the Chiefs in 2020 serves as an example. Despite the Chiefs’ poor defensive performance on various statistical measures, they still made it to the Super Bowl.

Embracing the idea that “worse data” can indicate unconventional success helps you identify false underdogs. During the season, if two teams have the same record, but one performs poorly in specific categories, question how they achieved the same goal. Were their opponents truly weak, or did they possess unique qualities?

Perhaps it’s Mahomes’ sidearm throws that make a difference.

Don’t Overlook the Details

In fantasy football, many players bench their stars due to a tough matchup without realizing that the unfavorable data comes from elite corners on the opposing team who are injured. Football players are human, and their imperfections must be considered when evaluating matchups.

Too often, we assume that math provides definitive accuracy without doing the necessary work ourselves. A calculator can give you the digits of pi but not guide you on how to use it.

I recommend manually calculating averages and allowances based on the players participating in the actual game.

What’s Next?

Now, it’s time to make an impact. Invest the time to utilize or calculate complete data sets so that you don’t develop skewed perspectives on how a game will unfold.

By thinking like an expert and avoiding biased data, you empower the numbers to inform you instead of ensuring they conform to your preconceived notions. I can provide you with guidance and resources, but ultimately, you need to take action and make the most of the available information.