NFL Division Winner Bets: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)
The 2024 NFL regular season is several weeks away. However, it’s time to get those preseason NFL bets in. While betting on team win totals, award winners, and Super Bowl champions are fun, bettors can find significant value in betting on Division Winners.
Our panel of BettingPros analysts weighed in on where they’re putting their wagers for each of the eight divisions. Here’s what they said.
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NFL Division Winner Bets
NFC East
BettingPros Analyst Picks
| Analyst | Pick |
| Andrew Erickson | Philadelphia Eagles |
| Derek Brown | Philadelphia Eagles |
| Pat Fitzmaurice | Dallas Cowboys |
| Sam Hoppen | Philadelphia Eagles |
| Ryan Wormeli | Dallas Cowboys |
| Mike Maher | Washington Commanders |
The Eagles are even money to win the division after one of the ugliest late-season collapses in recent money? Really?! The Commanders and Giants aren’t ready to contend for a division title yet, so I’ll happily back the Cowboys, who ranked fourth in the league in offensive DVOA last season, fifth in defensive DVOA and 10th in special teams DVOA. – Pat Fitzmaurice
The NFC East hasn’t had a repeat division champion since 2004, which is wild when you think about it. This division is always a dogfight, with four storied franchises always playing each other tough, even when one team is clearly inferior (well, except for some of the recent Giants teams). The Cowboys won the NFC East last season, and the Eagles are the slight favorite heading into this year. But what if new HC Dan Quinn and new OC Kliff Kingsbury get the most out of what is an underrated roster and rookie QB Jayden Daniels shines in a system that seems like a perfect fit for him? Stranger things have happened, and I like taking the chance on +1100 more than flipping a coin between the +160 Cowboys or even money Eagles. – Mike Maher
NFC North
BettingPros Analyst Picks
| Analyst | Pick |
| Andrew Erickson | Detroit Lions |
| Derek Brown | Detroit Lions |
| Pat Fitzmaurice | Green Bay Packers |
| Sam Hoppen | Green Bay Packers |
| Ryan Wormeli | Green Bay Packers |
| Mike Maher | Detroit Lions |
As you can see with most of my other picks, I don’t love futures picks that don’t have substantial payouts. Something about waiting six months to turn $100 into $150 just doesn’t do it for me. But I don’t think the +350 Bears have a realistic shot, the Vikings seem poised to take a step back, and the Packers don’t have long enough odds for me to want to move off Detroit. Give me the Lions for +150, even though I feel gross about it. – Mike Maher
The Lions are a perfectly reasonable choice to repeat as division champs, but I’m not sure how much value they offer at +150. I think you get a little more bang for the buck with the Packers, who nearly faced the Lions in the NFC Championship after taking the 49ers to the brink of elimination in the divisional round. Jordan Love looked like a star over the second half of the regular season and the playoffs, and there’s a lot of defensive talent for new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley to work with. – Pat Fitzmaurice
NFC South
BettingPros Analyst Picks
| Analyst | Pick |
| Andrew Erickson | Carolina Panthers |
| Derek Brown | New Orleans Saints |
| Pat Fitzmaurice | Carolina Panthers |
| Sam Hoppen | Atlanta Falcons |
| Ryan Wormeli | Carolina Panthers |
| Mike Maher | New Orleans Saints |
Few probably have realized that last year, on paper, the Saints were quite good despite their 9-8 record. New Orleans was 13th in yards per game, eighth in red zone scoring attempts per game, and 10th in points per game. The issue was that they were only 18th in the red zone in terms of touchdown scoring rate. Their struggles inside the 20 were comical at times last season. With new direction on the offensive side of the ball and a 4-1 record down the stretch last year, New Orleans could quietly be primed to take the division in 2024. – DBro
What a messy division. There’s no way I can bet the Falcons at -115, and I’m fading Derek Carr and the Saints. I worry that Baker Mayfield might crumble without Dave Canales in his ear, so I’ll place a long-shot bet on Canales’ new team, the Panthers. I’m certainly not *expecting* Carolina to win the NFC South. But if Canales can work the same sort of magic with second-year QB Bryce Young that he worked with Mayfield last year, and if defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero can build an above-average unit around studs Derrick Brown and Jaycee Horn, the Panthers could win the NFL’s weakest division with something like a 9-8 record. – Pat Fitzmaurice
NFC West
BettingPros Analyst Picks
| Analyst | Pick |
| Andrew Erickson | Arizona Cardinals |
| Derek Brown | Los Angeles Rams |
| Pat Fitzmaurice | San Francisco 49ers |
| Sam Hoppen | Arizona Cardinals |
| Ryan Wormeli | Los Angeles Rams |
| Mike Maher | Los Angeles Rams |
Look, it’s certainly not sexy to bet the 49ers to win the NFC West at -195 odds, but considering that the Niners probably have a 75% chance to win the division crown, I think there’s value here even at these unappealing odds. San Francisco ranked first in the NFL in offensive DVOA and fourth in defensive DVOA last season. The Rams have to soldier on without defensive leader Aaron Donald, who retired. QB Geno Smith probably isn’t good enough to lead the Seahawks to a division title. The Cardinals could be plucky, but they’re not ready to unseat the 49ers. Don’t overthink this one. — Pat Fitzmaurice
Can I entertain you with some longshot odds for the Arizona Cardinals in the super competitive NFC West? Hear me out. First off, I am expecting a “Super Bowl†hangover of sorts from the 49ers. They were one of the healthiest offenses last season, and they won’t be as lucky when it comes to injuries two years in a row. Their offensive line is super top-heavy with Trent Williams. If he misses time, their offense could run into some real issues. Last year was the first in the last 10 years that the 49ers were inside the top 20 in the fewest games lost due to injury. And like the 49ers, the Rams also benefitted from strong injury luck in 2023 per FTN’s adjusted games lost metric.
If the 49ers/ Rams falter from injuries, I think the Arizona Cardinals could be the sneaky team that ascends to the top of the division. Their team has improved dramatically after back-to-back strong drafts. And they finally have a healthy Kyler Murray available for the entire season. And they should benefit in injury unluckiness for their division foes, given they ranked 30th in adjusted games lost due to injuries last season (5th most injured overall). The last time Murray started the majority of a season (2021, 14 games), the team was 9-5. The team opened 7-1 before Murray had an ankle injury that derailed the Cardinals’ momentum. Among all the longshot odds for teams to win their division in 2024, the Cardinals have by far the best quarterback. He’s flashed an MVP-level ceiling.
Although I won’t go as far as sprinkling in 50-1 bets on Murray to win MVP, a bet on the plucky birds to upset the West will be my exposure play. This team played competitive football last season under Jonathan Gannon despite a depleted roster with nothing to play for. Over their last eight games, the Cardinals went 5-3 against the spread. They beat the Steelers and Eagles on the road. I fully expect Gannon to get even more out of this bunch in 2024 after all the improvements they have made on both sides of the football. Marvin Harrison Jr., Darius Robinson, Max Melton, Evan Brown, and Jonah Williams will all be key contributors.
AFC East
BettingPros Analyst Picks
| Analyst | Pick |
| Andrew Erickson | New York Jets |
| Derek Brown | Buffalo Bills |
| Pat Fitzmaurice | New York Jets |
| Sam Hoppen | Buffalo Bills |
| Ryan Wormeli | Buffalo Bills |
| Mike Maher | Miami Dolphins |
The AFC East is wide open (except for the Patriots). The Bills might take a step back if their gamble on that WR room without Stefon Diggs or Gabe Davis doesn’t pay off. The Jets are once again relying on 40-year-old QB Aaron Rodgers and OC Nathaniel Hackett — who might just be the worst OC in the NFL — to steer their offense. I’ll take the Greatest Show on Surf at +210. No one else in the division can keep up with them offensively. And offense wins games (and divisions). – Mike Maher
I don’t know how 40-year-old QB Aaron Rodgers will look coming off a torn Achilles, and I don’t know how long it will take the Jets to consolidate the new talent on their revamped offensive line. But I do know that the Jets have the best defense in the division (and maybe the entire NFL), and I trust head coach Robert Saleh to maximize all the defensive talent at his disposal. I tend to think the Jets should be no worse than a co-favorite with the Bills, if not the outright favorite, so +190 seems like reasonably good value. – Pat Fitzmaurice
AFC North
BettingPros Analyst Picks
| Analyst | Pick |
| Andrew Erickson | Cincinnati Bengals |
| Derek Brown | Cincinnati Bengals |
| Pat Fitzmaurice | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| Sam Hoppen | Cincinnati Bengals |
| Ryan Wormeli | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| Mike Maher | Cleveland Browns |
I love the Bengals as division underdogs to the Ravens at +165 on FanDuel Sportsbook. Every year, we see a team go from first to last in the divisional standings. Cincy is my best bet to be “that†team in 2024. They have a much easier SOS than the Ravens, who still have some question marks on their roster even after the NFL Draft. Joe Burrow’s squad will face a last-place Strength of Schedule (SOS) after finishing fourth in the AFC North last season. Overall, their forecasted strength of schedule based on Vegas Win Totals per Sharp Football is the sixth-easiest schedule compared to the 32nd-ranked schedule they faced last season. No team has a larger gap in last year’s SOS versus this year’s projection than Cincinnati.
The Bengals were also low-key winners during the 2024 offseason by retaining Tee Higgins and by drafting sharply in the 2024 NFL Draft. They addressed major team needs at OT, WR, DL and TE with the selections of RT Amarius Mims, DT Kris Jenkins, WR Jermaine Burton, DT McKinnley Jackson and TE Erick All. The defense can only improve after last season after finishing 23rd in DVOA after being devasted by key injuries. They were seventh and 16th the two years prior under defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo. They lost DT D.J. Reader in free agency but a signed Sheldon Rankins to address the defensive line in addition to the two rookies they drafted. Simply put, a healthier Bengals team will put the entire AFC North on notice – Andrew Erickson
Like Pat, I consider the AFC North to be wide open. But I think the Browns are closer to pushing for a division title than the Steelers. If Deshaun Watson can turn things around in what is essentially a make-or-break year for the veteran QB, they can make some real noise. The defense should once again be solid, and at +600, I like them as a roll of the dice over the two favorites and Pittsburgh. – Mike Maher
The AFC North is wide open, and while the Steelers aren’t my first choice to win the division, I like them better at this price than I do the Ravens or Bengals at much shorter odds or the Browns at slightly shorter odds. Pittsburgh Has a terrific defensive front seven — one of the best in the league — and some nice pieces in the secondary as well. The Steelers have two potential solutions at quarterback: Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. They also have a head coach, Mike Tomlin, who has a .633 lifetime winning percentage in the regular season and has never had a losing season in his 17 years as the team’s head coach. This is a long shot I feel good about backing. – Pat Fitzmaurice
AFC South
BettingPros Analyst Picks
| Analyst | Pick |
| Andrew Erickson | Indianapolis Colts |
| Derek Brown | Indianapolis Colts |
| Pat Fitzmaurice | Indianapolis Colts |
| Sam Hoppen | Indianapolis Colts |
| Ryan Wormeli | Indianapolis Colts |
| Mike Maher | Tennessee Titans |
A fully healthy Anthony Richardson for the entire 2024 season makes Indy a strong bet. Last year, this team managed nine wins with Gardner Minshew under center for much of the year, Jonathon Taylor in and out of the lineup even after his return, and a young roster that was still finding its way. Last year, the Colts fielded the fourth-youngest roster in the NFL, behind only the Packers, Rams, and Bengals. With Richardson at the helm, Shane Steichen in his second season as head coach, and improvements on both sides of the ball, the Colts are a wonderful bet at the current odds. – DBro
This is the Texans’ division to lose, but the Titans overhauled pretty much everything in HC Brian Callahan’s first offseason. QB Will Levis flashed last year, and they loaded up on weapons for him with Tony Pollard, Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd joining DeAndre Hopkins, Chig Okonkwo, and Tyjae Spears. They might be better than people think if Callahan can get his offense installed smoothly, and at 10-1, I’ll take the swing. – Mike Maher
AFC West
BettingPros Analyst Picks
| Analyst | Pick |
| Andrew Erickson | Kansas City Chiefs |
| Derek Brown | Kansas City Chiefs |
| Pat Fitzmaurice | Kansas City Chiefs |
| Sam Hoppen | Kansas City Chiefs |
| Ryan Wormeli | Kansas City Chiefs |
| Mike Maher | Los Angeles Chargers |
If I am betting -230 on a division favorite in the summer, I am putting my money on Patrick Mahomes. Not the Atanta Falcons, who have a new QB coming off a torn Achilles. Mahomes is 33-5 versus the AFC West in his NFL career. – Erickson
Are the Chiefs going to win this division? Unless something happens to Patrick Mahomes, yes. Is -230 worth a futures pick on that? Maybe. But what’s the fun in that? What if Jim Harbaugh is able to bring some of his magic to Los Angeles in his first season at the helm? Their defense and running game should both instantly improve, and they already have Justin Herbert at QB. They still need some help if they’re going to realistically compete, and I’d prefer the odds to be more like +500 to take this gamble. But what the heck? Let’s LIVE. Give me the Chargers at +350. Let’s. Get. Nuts. – Mike Maher