Navigate

NFL Divisional Game Preview, Odds & Picks: Buccaneers vs. Lions (Sunday)

by |

We kickoff Divisional Round Sunday with a rematch between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Detroit Lions. Flashback to mid-October, when the Lions secured a 20-6 road victory over the Bucs. The win helped Detroit’s case for legitimization in the NFC, while the loss raised questions about a Buccaneers team that had gotten off to a surprising 3-1 start before that disappointing defeat.

Should we expect a repeat in the rematch at Ford Field? Or can Baker Mayfield and his Bucs give the Lions a scare? Let’s dive into this NFC Divisional Round clash.

Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value, & Star Rating >>

NFL Divisional Round Best Bets: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (-6.5), O/U: 49

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Can Jared Goff beat Tampa’s blitz again? 

The calling card for Jared Goff is that in a clean pocket, he’s a pretty good quarterback. However, when he’s constantly under duress, he morphs into a pumpkin. The Buccaneers blitz at the third-highest rate in the NFL, so Goff must’ve played poorly against the Bucs the first time around, right?

Wrong. While Goff was sacked three times back in October, he still completed 30-of-44 passes for 353 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. Tampa’s problem has been that its blitz tendencies haven’t generated the pressure we’ve seen from previous Bucs’ defenses. Tampa Bay ranks just 21st in pressure rate despite their high rate of blitzing.

I also believe Goff has one of the ultimate blitz beaters in Amon-Ra St. Brown, whose agility and route-running ability make it easier for Goff to find an outlet when the pressure’s coming. To no surprise, St. Brown finished with 12 receptions for 124 yards and a touchdown in the first meeting. No other Lions wideout caught more than three balls.

Tampa Bay’s defense still has plenty of key cogs from a front seven that played an enormous role in their Super Bowl run not too long ago. However, Tampa’s secondary is shoddy, ranking 23rd in adjusted net yards per pass attempt.

The Lions could have trouble on the ground, however, as Tampa does rank 3rd in run defense EPA. The Buccaneers also held Detroit to just 40 yards on 22 carries in the first meeting. The Lions didn’t have David Montgomery or Jahmyr Gibbs in that matchup though.

Can Baker and the Bucs keep up? 

In last week’s game, I wrote about how Detroit’s defense was a bad matchup for the Rams’ offense because of its ability to stop the run and that held true. However, that advantage in run defense almost doesn’t matter against Tampa Bay, because the Bucs can hardly run the ball effectively as it is.

The Buccaneers rank 29th in rushing EPA, and in last week’s win over Philadelphia it was obvious they weren’t even going to try to establish the run. Considering how badly Detroit’s secondary has played, I don’t blame them if they replicate that gameplan.

The Lions rank 24th in adjusted net yards allowed per pass attempt and are 30th in pass defense EPA. If you watched any of Detroit’s Wild Card win over Los Angeles, you probably saw Puka Nacua breaking chunk play after chunk play. That’s because Detroit simply can’t cover anyone.

That sets up favorably for a Buccaneers passing game with plenty of firepower, as the Lions could struggle mightily to cover Mike Evans and Chris Godwin on the outside.

The key will be whether the Buccaneers’ offensive line can hold up against a Detroit front that led the league in pressure rate this season. If they can keep Baker Mayfield protected, he should be able to carve up this woeful secondary.

Prediction & Best Bets

I’ll keep this simple: I like the Over and the underdog in that order of preference. 

While I’d much rather prefer Tampa +7, I don’t mind grabbing them at +6.5 because I simply don’t trust the Detroit defense enough to allow this team to win with a margin. I also suspect both teams will move the ball with relative ease, similar to what we saw in the first half of the Lions-Rams game last week.

From a prop perspective, while the numbers are scary high, I like St. Brown and Godwin to both go over their receiving yardage props. The Lions and Bucs have allowed the third and fourth-most yards per game to opposing receivers. I’ve already outlined why I like St. Brown to have a big game, but I also suspect Godwin will see more coverage against Kindle Vildor than Evans will, which is a big advantage. Vildor is one of the worst cornerbacks in the league and was consistently getting torched in last week’s game against the Rams. Godwin also led Tampa with 77 yards in the first game.

This is a funky one, but I like Baker Mayfield to go over 8.5 rushing yards. Mayfield hadn’t cleared this number in six consecutive games, but then ran for 16 yards on two carries against Philly last week. Mayfield has shown he’s willing to scramble and while Detroit has generated a ton of pressure, they’ve been susceptible to quarterbacks escaping the pocket. The Lions have given up 24.6 rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, the third-most in the league.

Lastly, I also don’t mind throwing darts on both Sam LaPorta and Cade Otton to score touchdowns, as both the Lions and Bucs allowed a fair amount of TDs to opposing tight ends.

The Picks: 

  • Over 49 Total Points (-112)
  • Buccaneers +6.5 (-108)
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 92.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
  • Chris Godwin Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
  • Baker Mayfield Over 8.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
  • Sam LaPorta Anytime TD Scorer (+120)
  • Cade Otton Anytime TD Scorer (+320)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Sunday:


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App