NFL Divisional Game Preview, Odds & Picks: Chiefs vs. Bills (Sunday)
The marquee matchup of the weekend will take place Sunday evening at Highmark Stadium in Buffalo. Perhaps the two most talented quarterbacks in the league will face off in the playoffs for the third time in four years.
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have gotten the better of Josh Allen and the Bills in the previous matchups. The weather isn’t expected to play as much of a factor as it did last week in Buffalo. Let's take a deeper look at Sunday evening’s matchup.
NFL Divisional Game Preview: Chiefs at Bills
Mahomes will be playing the first road playoff game of his career. A raucous crowd is expected in Buffalo. With the temperature forecasted to be in the 20s, it will be balmy compared to what the fans endured Monday afternoon. The talent of both offenses should be on display in what promises to be a close game.
Buffalo has been the hottest team in the league since their bye in Week 13. After a 6-6 start, the Bills won out to make the playoffs, claiming the AFC East and stealing the No. 2 seed in the AFC. They went 7-1 on the season at home, averaging 29.5 points per game. Even in frigid temperatures against the Pittsburgh defense, Allen threw for three touchdowns and ran for another one on the way to a wild-card victory that wasn't as close as the final score indicated.
The Chiefs haven't been at their typically dominantant form on offense this season. They rank only eighth in DVOA on that side of the ball. Mahomes hasn't put up the gaudy passing numbers he has in years past, though drops have been a problem for the offense.
Last week against Miami, the Chiefs had some success. Mahomes threw for 262 yards, but it took him 41 attempts to get there. The Chiefs were able to move the ball down the field but stalled out in the redzone multiple times, settling for four field goals.
Injuries to the Buffalo defense have been detrimental all season. With a few more guys banged up last week, it's becoming more of a concern. The Bills allowed a putrid Pittsburgh offense to put up 324 yards of offense and 5.1 yards per play. The Chiefs have been muffled on offense much of the season, but the matchup with Buffalo might be just what they need to break out.
Only 37 points were scored in the regular season matchup between these two teams, but a controversial KC touchdown was taken off the board and both teams were able to move the ball down the field. I like both offenses to show up Sunday, as we've often seen when these teams meet up in the postseason.
Pick: Over 45 (-110)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Sunday:
- NFL Divisional Round Betting Primer & Expert Picks (Sunday)
- NFL Sunday Same Game Parlays Odds, Picks & Predictions (Divisional Round)
- Top 3 NFL Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Divisional Round (Sunday)
- Top NBA Odds, Picks & Predictions
- Top NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions
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