NFL Divisional Game Preview, Odds & Picks: Packers vs. 49ers (Saturday)
The Packers made postseason history in the wild-card round, going on the road to Dallas and defeating the Cowboys. The Packers became the first No. 7 seed to advance to the divisional round since the playoffs were expanded in 2020.
Next, the Packers will take on the top-seeded 49ers in San Francisco. The 49ers opened as large favorites. The question is if they can slow down a red-hot Green Bay offense. Let’s take a deeper look at this Saturday night matchup.
NFL Divisional Game Preview: Packers at 49ers
The Packers were the biggest story of wild-card weekend with the way they were able to dominate the Cowboys. Sure, Green Bay has looked unstoppable on offense the second half of the season. Jordan Love has thrown for 2,422 YDS, 21 touchdowns and one interception over his last nine games while the Packers have gone 7-2. However, the biggest edge that the Packers have had in the second half of the season has been Aaron Jones coming to full strength.
Jones has rushed for 476 YDS on 5.7 YPC in the last four games. Now, he’ll go against a 49ers’ run defense that has shown some vulnerability this season. San Fran ranks just around league average in DVOA run defense. The 49ers’ offense has been so dominant this year that opponents haven’t often been afforded the luxury of trying to run. The Packers have been explosive in both aspects of their offense. They should be able to rack up some points on this elite 49ers defense.
On the other side of the ball, I don’t see San Francisco having any issues. Dallas shot themselves in the foot over and over again with untimely turnovers last week against the Packers. Dak Prescott reverted back to his turnover-prone tendencies that he had been able to avoid most of the season. Still, the Cowboys racked up over 500 yards of total offense and moved the ball 5.7 yards per play. The 49ers’ offense has explosive playmakers both running and passing the ball, so the Packers will have a tough time slowing them down.
Green Bay ranks 26th in DVOA against both the run and pass. San Francisco, led by Christian McCaffrey and Brock Purdy, were in the top two in DVOA both running and passing the ball. Green Bay doesn’t have the firepower to slow the 49ers down. Most teams don’t.
The spread in this game is pretty large. Early money has come in on the Packers, but if Green Bay isn’t perfect, San Francisco could pull away quickly. Both of these teams should be able to score points in this matchup, leading to an exciting, high-scoring Over play.
Pick: Over 50.5 (-110)
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