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NFL Divisional Game Preview, Odds & Picks: Texans vs. Ravens (Saturday)

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Divisional Weekend begins with a rematch. Flashback to Week 1, when the Baltimore Ravens defeated the Houston Texans, 25-9, in an unmemorable game.

Back then, C.J. Stroud was a green rookie making his debut against a Ravens defense that we knew was good but didn’t know would become the league’s best by season’s end. Stroud’s inexperience came through in his debut, as he was sacked five times and posted a 34.9 QBR.

That Week 1 loss might’ve been the last time Stroud and the Texans disappointed. Since then, the No. 2 overall pick cemented himself as the Rookie of the Year and has emerged as the league’s up-and-coming young QB while taking the Texans on a ride from 3-13-1 to AFC South champions.

Meanwhile for Baltimore, their Week 1 victory was a sign of things to come. Baltimore dominated the Regular Season and clinched the top seed in the AFC with relative ease.

Now the two teams collide with the first spot in the AFC Championship Game on the line. While so much has changed for both sides, some things also stayed the same. The Ravens closed as 9.5-point favorites back in September, and as of writing are currently 9.5-point favorites for the rematch at M&T Bank Stadium.

Can Houston give the AFC’s top team a better run for its money this time around? Or will this game be a formality in Baltimore’s playoff run? Let’s break down the first game of Divisional Weekend.

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NFL Divisional Round Best Bets: Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5), O/U: 43.5

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

C.J. Stroud faces his stiffest test (again) 

Stroud had his hands full against this Ravens defense in Week 1, and that won’t change in the Divisional Round rematch. Stroud and the Texans only played five games against teams ranked inside the top 10 in defensive EPA, but Baltimore is by far the best defense this young Texans team has and will face.

Baltimore is tops in the league in adjusted net yards per pass attempt allowed and led the league in sacks this season. The biggest reason for Baltimore’s defensive dominance is because its personnel allows it to be schematically versatile. Defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald isn’t afraid to throw multiple defensive fronts and coverage plans at their opponents, and Macdonald is sure to have some crafty schemes cooked up to fluster Stroud and a Texans passing game that ranks third in EPA.

Specifically, we could see Macdonald rely heavily on man coverage against Stroud, who ranked first in the league in QBR against zone coverage during the regular season, but just 27th against man. We saw Stroud play perhaps his worst game of the year against the New York Jets, a team that plays primarily man coverage with two top-end corners. Stroud went 10-for-23 for 91 yards before exiting with a concussion.

While the Ravens don’t have Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed, they do have a good enough group in the secondary to replicate a similar game plan, even without cornerback Marlon Humphrey, who will miss the game due to injury.

To top it off, Houston allowed the 10th-most sacks in the league this year and will be short-handed at wide receiver with no Tank Dell or Noah Brown taking the pressure off of Nico Collins. While the Texans connected on a couple of big plays that went for touchdowns to Brevin Jordan and Dalton Schultz, they only got six receptions from wideouts not named Collins. Continuing to bank on big plays isn’t as likely against a Ravens defense that stifled opposing passing games.

Baltimore was a bit more susceptible against the run, ranking just 14th in EPA. However, Houston’s offense just isn’t built to exploit teams on the ground.

All in all, it could be tough sledding once again for Stroud in Baltimore.

How the Ravens can exploit Houston’s defense 

All credit to the Texans defense, who blew the game open with two pick-sixes of Joe Flacco. However, going from the statuesque Flacco, who was happy to be there, to the ultra-athletic Lamar Jackson is a big step up in competition. It’s one I’m not sure this Houston defense can handle.

For starters, Houston hasn’t played a gauntlet of opposing offenses. They’ve faced just one quarterback in their last 10 games who made the playoffs, and that was Flacco. Plus, they’ve only faced one offense this entire season that finished in the top 10 in EPA, which was Baltimore.

The Texans also didn’t square off with a ton of mobile QBs with anywhere close to Jackson’s skill set. The closest comparisons are Kyler Murray, who rushed for 51 yards and a touchdown against them, and Desmond Ridder, who ran for only 10 yards but did score a touchdown. That could be problematic against Jackson, who’s got something to prove after previous disappointing playoff performances.

I also still have trouble trusting this Houston secondary. The Texans rank 18th in adjusted net yards per pass attempt allowed and have been carved up by far more inferior passing attacks than Baltimore’s.

That being said, I still have questions about the Ravens pass catchers. Zay Flowers has had a nice rookie season, and the sum of Baltimore’s passing game as a whole is greater than the sum of its parts. However, this group’s lack of a true alpha receiver could hurt them in this game and moving forward.

Baltimore could benefit substantially from the return of Mark Andrews from an ankle injury. Andrews practiced in full on Wednesday and is listed as questionable., but I’d expect him to play so long as there are no setbacks. If Andrews is a full go, he could return in style against the Texans, who have allowed the fourth-most yards to opposing tight ends this year.

Prediction & Best Bets

I’m sad to say that I don’t love a pick on the spread or total in this game. While I think the Ravens will win, it’s a lot to ask to win by double digits against this plucky Texans team. That being said, my lean is toward Baltimore at anything below -10. 

My favorite bets in this game are prop bets. Keep an eye out on Andrews’ status, as I’d love to target the over on his yardage prop once it’s posted. The same goes for backup Isaiah Likely should Andrews miss this game. I don’t even mind a play on both guys going over their yardage totals. We targeted David Njoku’s prop last week and that hit with ease.

Finally, while it’s a little chalky, I’d recommend a play on the “Jackson Anytime TD Scorer” prop. The Texans have given up the most rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks this year, and remember that’s come against very few dual-threat QBs.

The Picks:

  • Lean Baltimore -9.5 or better (-108)
  • Mark Andrews and/or Isaiah Likely to hit the Over on their respective Receiving Yards props
  • Lamar Jackson Anytime TD Scorer (+105)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:


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