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NFL Divisional Round Betting Primer & Expert Picks (Saturday)

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Let's dive into the two-game Saturday marquee NFL slate for the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Here are my top picks and player prop bet picks between the Houston Texans vs the Baltimore Ravens and the San Francisco 49ers vs the Green Bay Packers.

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Saturday Football Betting Primer

Houston Texans vs Baltimore Ravens (-9.5)

Sides:

  • The Texans are 70% ATS as an underdog. 6-4 overall. They went 1-1 overall and straight up as an underdog without C.J. Stroud during his two-game absence.
  • Seven of their last 9 wins have been by seven or fewer points.
  • Houston is 10-6 ATS in their last 16 games.
  • The Ravens starters have covered the spread in 9 of their last 10 games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Ravens have covered the spread in each of their last seven games following a loss.
  • Baltimore is 64% ATS as a favorite.
  • The Ravens have lost each of their last six home games in January.

Game Total:

  • The Texans have gone under in 11 of their last 16 games, which featured them playing many offenses that are averaging fewer than 20 points per game.
  • The Ravens rank 3rd in points per game overall and second at home (31.9).
  • Baltimore is 5-4 toward the over at home this season, averaging just under 50 points per game.
  • The Ravens have gone OVER in two of the last 3 games (3 of the last 6).
  • Each of the Ravens’ last 10 January games at M&T Bank Stadium has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • These teams averaged 44.5 points per game.
  • Baltimore has the second-best red zone defense in the NFL. No.1 lowest yards per attempt allowed. 8th best defense on third downs.
  • The Texans’ offense ranks 16th in the red zone, 20th on 3rd downs, and third in yards per pass attempt (7.9).
  • The Texans’ last three road games have gone under the total.

Overall:

As I have pointed out in previous editions of the BettingPros Primer, the Ravens are a team that plays to the level of their competition. Against good/winning teams, they bring out their best. I expect them to get their best from Lamar Jackson in a marquee home postseason matchup.

For what it's worth, the Texans have also been solid playing teams twice this season, going 3-1 ATS and overall, in their second game against opponents. They swept Tennessee and split with both Indy/Jacksonville/Cleveland. And back in the Week 1 contest, the Texans out-gained Baltimore with the score 7-6 in the first half.

The Texans are vastly overdue for regression regarding their 7-11 O/U record. The Ravens are 8-9 toward the O/U.

No precipitation in this game, but some mild wind and gusts will be present in the 20mph. Ergo, wait until this number falls with more fear about wind, causing an overreaction from the market.

As good as the Ravens are, the Texans can hang around to cover this massive spread as road underdogs. 70% ATS as underdogs, is too good to pass up, as is Stroud with 9.5 points.

As for the total, I love the over. It's down to 43.5 despite these teams averaging 44.5 points per game this season.

Props

Devin Singletary once again spearheaded the Texans backfield in the wildcard round, rushing 13 times for 66 yards and 1 TD (had another big run called back due to holding). He logged 72% of the snaps. Dameon Pierce had 3 carries and played just 13% of the snaps. Singletary's stranglehold on the RB1 job in Houston has not budged.

I am leaning toward the OVER on Singletary's rushing line prop set at 60.5 rushing yards this week. He's gone over in 5 of his last 6 games. And the Ravens' run defense has hardly been a gauntlet. Since Week 6, they have allowed nearly 100 rushing yards per game to RBs at the second-highest yards per carry (4.8). 6 of the last 7 RBs they have faced went over 55 rushing yards.

Dalton Schultz played the most tight end snaps in the Wildcard Round and scored on his lone catch for a 37-yard touchdown. The impending free agent dropped his other target. Brevin Jordan took his one catch 76 yards to the house. Jordan's a YAC monster who also played 50% of the snaps. Would be leaning toward the under on Schultz's receiving prop this week. Just not involved enough consistently in the offense, and the matchup is tough versus Baltimore.

I like the over on the total in this game, along with more than on C.J. Stroud's 234.5 passing prop. Gone OVER in back-to-back games. The Ravens' first-team defense has allowed 240-plus yards to 3 of the last 4 QBs they have faced. In Stroud's first game in the NFL, he threw for 242 against the Ravens on the road.

With Mark Andrews out, we should see another massive game for tight end Isaiah Likely. The Texans allow the most receiving yards to tight ends this season (65). Take the MORE THAN on Likely's 36.5 receiving yards prop. He has 40 or more yards in 5 straight games as the starter.

The Ravens don't allow many WR yards, but they bleed targets (2nd) and receptions (12th). Watch for low reception props on ancillary Texans WRs like John Metchie III with Noan Brown placed on IR.

Take the under on Gus Edward's 51.5 rushing yards. Still somewhat in a committee with Justice Hill.

And since Week 8, just three RBs have surpassed their rushing totals against Houston.

My Picks:

San Francisco 49ers (-10) vs. Green Bay Packers

Sides:

  • The Underdogs have won seven of the Packers' last nine games.
  • The Packers are also 8-2 when they allow fewer than 23 points on defense. 7-3 ATS.
  • Green Bay is 3-5 ATS when they allow more than 23 points.
  • The Packers have scored first in each of their last five road games.
  • The road team has covered the spread in each of the 49ers' last 10 games.
  • The 49ers have not covered the spread in their last 5 home games.
  • The 49ers first team has covered as favorites in 59% of their games. 12-4 overall.
  • SF is 56% ATS as a favorite. 12-5 overall.
  • GB is 64% ATS as an underdog. 6-5 overall.

Game Total:

  • Seven of the Packers' last eight games have gone OVER the total points line. Their defense has been horrible.
  • Each of the Packers’ last six road games has gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Packers' last nine postseason games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • GB has allowed 24-plus points in four of their last six games.
  • The 49ers are 5-3 toward the over at home this season, averaging over 46 points per game.
  • Teams average 46 points per game.
  • The 49ers starters have scored at least 27 points in 12 of their 16 games played this season.
  • The 49ers have not covered the spread in their last 5 home games.
  • They have averaged over 28 points per game at home this season (3rd-best).
  • The 49ers have scored first in nine of their last 10 home games.

Overall:

Although the spotlight in this game is on the two QBs, the Packers' chances of winning/covering the spread are more about their defense. When GB's defense struggles, they lose. Green Bay is 3-5 ATS when they allow more than 23 points. SF is 10-2 ATS when they score 23 or more points.

The 49ers have been great as a favorite this season, but their middling and recent ATS record at home (0-5) makes me think they are slightly overrated regarding the point spread. The Packers own the third-best scoring margin on the road this season (+5.4) and they are hardly getting the credit/respect they deserve after the beatdown they gave the Dallas Cowboys in the Wildcard Round.

Road teams and underdogs have been profitable ATS in 49ers/Packers games respectively, so taking the Packers with the points is a no-brainer to me. Also, the Packers play well against teams that they are familiar with.

They are 2-1 straight up in the last 3 matchups under Matt LeFleur versus Kyle Shanahan. 2-0 last two games playing in SF. 2-1 ATS in the last 3 matchups versus the 49ers. In the division this season, the Packers went 4-2. They swept the Bears and won the second game against the Lions/Vikings. They were familiar with Mike McCarthy’s offense and Dan Quinn’s defense last week, and came out on top.

Also, their improved first-half offense posed problems, as we know the 49ers are a team that operates at its best as a front-runner. The Packers have scored first in each of their last five road games. Through the first 9 weeks of the season, the Packers averaged an ABSYMAL 4.1 points per game in the first halves of games. From Week 10 onward these are their first half-point totals: 10, 23, 14, 10, 10, 23, 23, 7, 27. Average of 16.3 points per game in the first half. No. 2 in the league.

As for the total, I lean toward the over for the reasons I have outlined. However, the number itself is just massive at 50.5. 3 of the overs in SF this year have finished with points totals of 51, 51, and 52. Unless it comes down, this total is likely a shy away based on what these teams have traditionally done scoring on average this season.

Props:

The Packers bleed big gains to tight ends (second-highest yards per reception allowed) ranking 26th in DVOA against the position. We saw this 49ers offense take on Joe Brady's Green Bay defense twice back in 2021, with tight end George Kittle being the constant threat that was very productive. He went over 52 yards in both games against this Packers defense.

He has also gone over 51.5 receiving yards in four of his last five games, including 6 of the 49ers' 7 home games played this season.

Again, it is very much a "pick your flavor" when it comes to chasing the "MORE THANS/OVERS" on 49ers players. The over on Christian McCaffrey's rushing yardage at 92.5 yards might be the obvious/safest wager to make. Gone over in 6 of his last 8 games played. In one game he didn't finish because of an injury. The Packers can easily be run on, and I'd expect a full workload for CMC off two weeks of rest. Six of the last 10 RBs the Packers have faced have gone OVER their projected rushing totals.

On the other side of this SF-GB matchup, I would expect another high-octane and volume passing effort from Jordan Love. The 49ers have allowed the 3rd-most completions this season to QBs. The 4 of the last 5 QBs the 49ers have faced have completed 22-plus passes. 8 of 11 have hit the over on their completions prop.

Love has gone for 250-plus yards in 8 of his last 10 games played (80%). I love pairing Love with his No. 1 WR as well in same game parlays.

Jayden Reed was not needed, going 0-for-3 on his targets in the wild card round. Still ranked third in snaps from the slot (46%) and just 11 routes overall with the Packers winning with efficiency, not volume, in their passing attack. Expect him to bounce big in a big way as the Packers' best WR. Note that the 49ers have allowed the 5th-most catches to WRs this season. Reed is the quick-read slot option for Love, who should look to his rookie frequently in this spot.

Before last week, Reed had gone for at least 4 receptions in eight straight games. Over 3.5 receptions for Reed is this week’s stone-cold lock of the week.

Also would opt for the UNDER on Luke Musgrave's 19.5 receiving yards prop. The 49ers rank 4th in DVOA against tight ends. Still, they have allowed the 8th-most receiving yards to tight ends since Week 10. Therefore I'll take the MORE than on Kraft's 22.5 receiving yards prop given he is the starting tight end in the offense.

My Picks:

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:


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