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NFL Divisional Round Betting Primer & Expert Picks (Sunday)

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Let's dive into the two-game Sunday marquee NFL slate for the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Here are my top picks and player prop bet picks between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs the Detroit Lions and the Buffalo Bills vs the Kansas City Chiefs.

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Sunday Football Betting Primer

Detroit Lions (-6) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sides:

  • The Lions have won the first half in 15 of their last 16 games as favorites.
  • The Lions have won seven of their last eight home games.
  • The Buccaneers have covered the spread in eight of their last nine road games.
  • On the road, Tampa is 8-1 ATS this season. 4-5 at home.
  • The Buccaneers have won each of their last four games as underdogs.
  • Underdogs have won five of the last 6 Buccaneers' games.
  • Tampa Bay is 75% ATS as an underdog this season. 6-6 overall.
  • The Lions are 12-3 overall as a favorite, 67% ATS.
  • The Detroit Lions are 7-5 ATS over their last 12 games.

Game Total:

  • Teams average 51.3 points per game at Ford Field this season. 6-3 O/U record.
  • In the Lions' last 18 home games, the average total has been 54.5 points. 77% (14/18) of the games have scored at least 51 points.
  • 4 of the Lions' last five home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Lions' last 10 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Each of the Buccaneers’ last four games has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Tampa Bay is also 12-6 toward the under this season overall.
  • The Bucs are 4-4 toward the over in their last 8 games.
  • These teams average 45 points per game.
  • Their offenses average 48 points per game.
  • Tampa Bay has averaged 23 points per game this season on the road (11th).
  • The Buccaneers boast the No. 1 red-zone defense in the NFL at home (35%). Falls to 50% on the road.
  • They are allowing just 16.2 points per game at home this season (top 5). On the road? 21 points per game.
  • The Buccaneers are 2-7 toward the game total at home this season. On the road? 4-5 O/U.

Overall:

The Lions have been the best team ATS this season (71%) especially when they have been favored at home. But the betting trends heavily back the road underdog Buccaneers, who have covered all but one road contest ATS this season. Tampa Bay has the second-best record ATS this season (65%) tied with the Baltimore Ravens.

In situations like this, I tend to avoid sides and just bet the total. Again, both these teams have shown all year long, to rise to the occasion. Detroit is tied for the highest over rate (65%) overall this season.

And this Buccaneers team is screaming for an over game after falling short of the point total in four straight games. Ford Field - as alluded to - is the gift to the over that keeps on giving. The total fell just short last week despite 38 points scored in the first half; that won't happen two weeks in a row.

Props:

Because we love the over in this matchup, you should be betting on player props aggressively.

Given the pass-funnel nature of the Buccaneers’ defense (5th-highest pass rate faced) lock-and-load over on Jared Goff's passing yards prop at 279.5 passing yards. He has 270-plus yards in four of his last 5 games. At home, he has gone over in four of his last 5 games at Ford Field aka the Coors Field of the NFL. He also threw for 350 when he faced this defense earlier this season.

And who better to pair a Goff passing yards than with the SUN GOD himself, as he continues to be on an absolute heater, posting bonkers numbers.

Amon-Ra has gone for 95 or more receiving yards in 7 of his 8 games played at home this season. No fewer than 77 receiving yards in any home game this season. St Brown also has 90-plus receiving yards in 5 straight games. Amon-Ra went for 124 yards when these teams played earlier this season. We trusted the sun god last week, and he didn't let us down. Rinse and repeat.

Mayfield cooked the Eagles like a Thanksgiving Turkey in the first round of the NFL playoffs. 337 passing yards and 3 TDs.

The yardage won't stop this week.

The Lions have allowed an absurd number of passing yards over their last four games. Nearly 380 passing yards per game. Detroit has also allowed the most passing yards to QBs over the last 6 weeks.

Mayfield has gone over his number (260.5) in four of his last five games. And who better to pair Mayfield with than Mike Evans?

Have to imagine a horrible Lions secondary is the BOOM spot for Evans after a few down games.

Evans has 265 air yards in the last two weeks, but 70 actual yards. Regression is coming. Earned 10 targets last time he played the Lions with 127 air yards. The Lions rank 1st in air yards and second in ADOT faced this season.

The Lions have allowed most fantasy points to slot WRs since Week 9.

Last week, Chris Godwin caught 4 balls for 45 yards on 5 targets with a TD score (14% Target share). In the previous DET-TB matchup, Godwin led the team in receiving, with 6 receptions for 77 yards (7 targets, 19% Target share). Evans (10 targets, 27%, 127 air yards) and Trey Palmer (7 targets) also contributed with receptions, although they couldn't find the end zone or haul in any worthwhile production. Palmer led the team with 154 air yards (35%) and played a 66% snap share.

Josh Reynolds also had a "revenge game" boost last week. 5 catches for 80 yards on 7 targets (27% Target share). Played well ahead of Jameson Williams coming off his injury while tying the Sun God in routes run. Williams was an utter failure yet again, catching just 2 balls for 19 yards (2 targets). Only ran three fewer routes than the other two WRs. I'd be wary of trusting Reynolds in back-to-back weeks even in a plus-matchup. Would likely go back to the over on Jamo at the current number (36.5 receiving yards).

The Lions' defense is ELITE versus the run. They have not allowed RB to surpass 70 yards against them ALL SEASON. Fewest rushing yards allowed per game to RBs this season (60.5). Rachaad White has gone under 55.5 rushing yards in two of his last four games, both of which came in tougher matchups.

My Picks:

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills (-2.5)

Sides:

  • The Bills have won each of their last six games.
  • The Buffalo Bills are 11-4 as a favorite this season.
  • But they have covered just 47% of their games ATS as favorites. 7-8 ATS.
  • Buffalo is 8-1 and 5-4 ATS at home.
  • Buffalo has failed to cover the spread in 9 of their last 14 games. Woof.
  • KC is 3-0 ATS in the last three weeks.
  • The underdogs have covered the spread in eight of the Chiefs' last 11 games.
  • The Chiefs have covered the spread in each of their last nine games as road underdogs against AFC opponents.
  • The Chiefs have won each of their last four games as underdogs. 100% ATS this season as an underdog (2-0).
  • KC has covered the spread in five of their last six games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Chiefs have won 82% of their games when leading at halftime.

Game Total:

  • The Bills are 4-5 toward the over at home this season, averaging under 45 points per game.
  • These teams average 42 points per game.
  • Five of the last 7 Bills' games at home have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Bills have scored first in 11 of their last 12 games against the Chiefs.
  • Each of the Chiefs’ last four games has gone UNDER the total points line (5 of the last 6)
  • The last three Chiefs' Road games (with starters) have gone OVER the total.
  • Totals of 44, 46 and 48. The current O/U is 45/45.5.
  • The last five matchups between these teams have totaled points of 37, 58, 78, 43, 62.
  • An average of 55.6 points scored per game.
  • In the previous matchup, some points were left on the board. Mahomes had an interception in the Bills' territory.

Overall:

Buffalo has hardly been a confident bet against vastly inferior teams, failing to put away bad teams like the Patriots and Chargers at times this season. They beat down the Jets at home, but that's been about it. Even last week against the Steelers, they let them hang around in the second half despite taking a 21-0 lead.

KC is not the same powerhouse it has been in recent years, but they are starting to get into a groove. They are essentially playing with house money as road underdogs, which is the exact spot you want to back Patrick Mahomes in.

In a back-and-forth contest and FG spread, the Chiefs are the overwhelming bet to take ATS with every trend backing them in this matchup. Not sure if they ultimately pull out the win, but I'll easily take them catching 2.5 points on the road. Mahomes is 1-3 versus the Bills in the regular season, but 2-0 against them in the postseason.

Furthermore, the Bills defense is banged up. Taron Johnson and Terrel Bernard both got hurt versus the Steelers.

As for the total, Buffalo has been an under-machine at home. And the season-long sample sizes of these teams strongly suggest the under at 45.5. But the line is razor sharp in this 45-45.5 range, so I can't justify a selection either with two elite QBs that have the capability of talking over the game at any moment. And the fact that the Chiefs’ last 3 road games have gone OVER, gives me some hesitance that their defense will just lock down Buffalo. In their last two road games played, they have allowed their two largest yardage outputs at 382 yards (vs GB) and 358 yards (vs LV).

I might wait to see if the number continues to be bet down (opened at 46.5) and jump on the over closer to kick-off.

Props:

Josh Allen has been running wild as a mobile QB. He's gone over 10+ carries in three of his last six games. I like the over on Allen's 8.5 rushing attempts prop as well as a plus money bet on the over at 9.5. His career average rushing attempts per game versus the Chiefs (10.3) is the highest against any opponent he has played more than once.

My Picks:

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Sunday:


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