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NFL Divisional Round Odds, Picks & Predictions: Longshot Bets (2023)

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On Wild Card Weekend, we correctly picked Matthew Stafford to throw for over 350 yards, giving us a +500 winner. We very nearly hit Aaron Jones over 120 rushing yards for +550, but with a massive lead late, the Green Bay Packers didn't put Jones back on the field to work the clock, and he ended with 118 yards.

Here are the best longshot bets for the Divisional Round.

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Best NFL Divisional Round Longshot Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens Under 31.5 Points (+427)

When these two teams met in Week 1 of this season, the Ravens came away with the 25-9 win. What many may forget is the score of that game was just 7-6 at halftime. Considering that it was C.J. Stroud's first professional game, it's not wrong to assume he will perform better this week than he did back then. But this will still be a very low-scoring game.

Stroud lit up the Cleveland Browns last week, throwing for 274 yards and three touchdowns. Almost all of that production came in the first half. Perhaps it's wrong to fade him this week, but the Ravens are the No. 1 scoring defense in the NFL. They have held their opponents to 20 or fewer points in six of their last seven games.

The Texans are no slouch defensively, either. They've held three consecutive teams to under 20 points. Since this is their second look at Lamar Jackson, they should have an easier time defending him than they did in their first meeting. All of this adds up to both teams struggling to get into the endzone.

David Montgomery To Score 2+ Touchdowns (+600)

The price for this prop ranges from +350 to +600 at the major sportsbooks. At +350, this is barely even a longshot, so getting this at +600 - the price currently offered by FanDuel - is a gift.

David Montgomery only has one multi-touchdown game this season, but he's still managed 14 touchdowns, if you include last week's game against the Los Angeles Rams. He's scored in four consecutive games, and though he has to split time with Jahmyr Gibbs, he's the Lions' most consistent option around the goal line.

In the Lions' first meeting with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Gibbs didn't play, and Montgomery got hurt in the first half. This benefits the Lions on Sunday, as they can mix up their offense in a way they couldn't in the first meeting. Though the Buccaneers are allowing the sixth-fewest rushing yards per attempt this season, the Lions should score in the 30s this week, and Montgomery will be a huge part of why.

San Francisco 49ers Over 5.5 Touchdowns (+600)

The 49ers averaged 28.9 points per game this season, even though they only averaged 22.0 per game over the last three weeks of the regular season. They scored over 40 points on three different occasions, and they scored at least 30 nine times.

The Packers just dominated the Dallas Cowboys from start to finish. That performance earned them love from bettors heading into this week. But the truth is, even with how good Jordan Love is playing, the 49ers and Packers aren't even remotely close regarding talent.

The Packers have yet to allow 40 points this season, but in Week 16, they allowed the Carolina Panthers to score 30 points against them. Including last week against the Cowboys, the Packers have allowed just four opponents to score at least 30 against them. However, with all of the weapons the 49ers have available, the Packers will struggle to keep them out of the endzone. Since this is the postseason, the Packers won't roll over when they fall behind. That will lead to forced plays from the offense and great field position for the 49ers.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.

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