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NFL Divisional Round Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Favorites (2024)

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The first week of the NFL Playoffs was a good one for player props, with a 5-1 start to the postseason. We only have seven NFL games remaining before a long, desolate offseason, so let's make some money while we still have the chance.

I'll get to this week's selections in a moment. But first, a recap of the Super Wild-Card Weekend plays …

The wins: Joe Flacco over 271.5 passing yards, Isiah Pacheco over 64.5 rushing yards, Kyren Williams under 82.5 rushing yards, David Njoku over 54.5 receiving yards, Stefon Diggs under 60.5 receiving yards

The losses: Najee Harris over 58.5 rushing yards

Last week: 5-1

Season record: 89-84

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Fitz's Favorite NFL Divisional Round Player Prop Bets

All odds are courtesy of DraftKings, as of Thursday morning.

Baker Mayfield OVER 261.5 passing yards

If the Buccaneers are going to move the ball and put up points against the Lions, they'll have to do it through the air. Detroit allowed the second-fewest rushing yards this season but gave up the fourth-most passing yards. Mayfield has cleared this number in four of his last five games, and he's coming off a 337-yard performance against the Eagles in the wild-card round that could have been even better if his pass catchers hadn't been guilty of some egregious drops. Mayfield has averaged 8.7 yards per pass attempts over his last four games, and the Lions gave up 7.8 yards per attempt during the regular season — second-most in the league. With the Lions favored by 6 points, it's likely to be a pass-heavy game script for the Buccaneers.

Christian McCaffrey OVER 91.5 rushing yards

McCaffrey has topped this number in five of his last six games, and he might have been 6-for-6 if not for a minor calf strain that forced him to the bench early in San Francisco's Week 18 win over Washington. CMC has had an extra week to recover and has been full go at practice this week. He'll be a big part of the 49ers' game plan against the Packers, whose leaky run defense ranks 26th in DVOA. Green Bay yielded the fifth-most rushing yards during the regular season. Smash the over.

Rachaad White UNDER 54.5 rushing yards

White has a nasty matchup this weekend against a Lions run defense that has been impregnable for most of the season. Detroit gave up just 60.5 rushing yards per game and 3.5 yards per carry to running backs during the regular season. The Lions faced an average of 24.0 rushing attempts per game, the third-lowest total in the league. White has been a workhorse for the Buccaneers this season, but he hasn't been especially efficient, averaging 3.6 yards per carry. This is a tough spot for White. Fade him this week against the NFL's best run defense.

George Kittle OVER 52.5 receiving yards

Kittle has cleared this number in four of his last five games and eight of his last 10. Kittle has a favorable matchup against a Green Bay defense that has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends since Week 10. Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson had 10 catches for 93 yards and three touchdowns against the Packers last week.

Luke Musgrave UNDER 19.5 receiving yards

Musgrave scored a 38-yard touchdown last week on a play where the Cowboys left him completely uncovered, and that play might be artificially inflating Musgrave's yardage total for the Packers' Divisional Round game against the 49ers. Musgrave, who returned from a lacerated kidney two weeks ago, played only 15 snaps against Dallas last week, while fellow rookie TE Tucker Kraft played 45 snaps. Maybe Musgrave's snap share will increase this week, but he's still likely to have a part-time role since Kraft performed so well during Musgrave's six-game absence. If Musgrave plays fewer than 25 snaps, it will be hard for him to reach this number against a 49ers defense that ranks fourth in defensive DVOA vs. tight ends.

Sam LaPorta OVER 42.5 receiving yards

Tight end player props are all the rage this week, and here's TE bet No. 3. This total is set low because LaPorta hyperextended his knee and sustained a bone bruise two weeks ago in Detroit's regular-season finale. LaPorta played and scored a touchdown in the Lions' wild-card win over the Rams, but he had only three catches for 14 yards. Despite the knee issue, LaPorta played 80% of Detroit's offensive snaps against the Rams, and he's been practicing in full this week. The star rookie averaged 52.3 receiving yards per game this season, and this weekend he'll be facing a Buccaneers defense that gave up 1,077 receiving yards to tight ends during the regular season, third-most in the league. Take advantage of the injury discount and play the over here.

Stefon Diggs UNDER 62.5 receiving yards

We hit the under on Diggs' receiving total last week, and we're going back to the well. Over his last nine games, the slumping Diggs has averaged 44.6 receiving yards per contest. His matchup against the Chiefs is a tough one. Kansas City has two outstanding cornerbacks in L'Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie. Diggs will probably run a majority of his routes against Sneed, who held Miami's Tyreek Hill to 62 yards last week. When Diggs faced the Chiefs in Week 14, he had four catches for 24 yards.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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