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NFL Divisional Round Touchdown Scorer Prop Bet Picks & Predictions (Saturday)

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The Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs is here, giving us two days of action. The week kicks off with two matchups on Saturday. The Houston Texans take on the Baltimore Ravens in the day's first contest. Then, the Green Bay Packers face the San Francisco 49ers to wrap up the slate.

Millions of dollars will get bet on these games. However, which touchdown prop bets should you bet? Let's take a look at my favorite touchdown bets for each matchup.

Divisional Round Saturday Football Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens

Texans First TD Scorer: Nico Collins (+340)

Last week, the Texans pulled off the upset victory over the Cleveland Browns, blowing out the Joe Flacco-led team by 31 points. C.J. Stroud was outstanding in that contest but got plenty of help from his receiving core, especially Collins. The former Michigan star had six receptions for 96 receiving yards and the first Houston touchdown in the game (which I correctly called). Collins scored the first Texans offensive touchdown in 31.3% of the games during the regular season, including two of the final three.

These two teams met in Week 1, with the Ravens getting the 25-9 victory. While Houston didn't have a touchdown in the contest, Stroud showed signs of being an elite quarterback. More importantly, Collins led the team in receptions (six), targets (11), and receiving yards (80). He also had the team's first touchdown this year the following week. Meanwhile, the first touchdown scored against Baltimore was by a wide receiver in three of their final five regular season games.

Ravens First TD Scorer: Gus Edwards (+310)

When the Texans and Ravens faced off in Week 1, Edwards didn't have a rushing touchdown. However, the backfield accounted for three rushing scores, including the first in the game by J.K. Dobbins. Unfortunately, the former Ohio State running back tore his Achilles in that game, ending his season. Thankfully, Edwards picked up the slack. He led Baltimore in rushing touchdowns (13), accounting for half of the team's total this year. Furthermore, the veteran also finished fifth in the NFL in rushing touchdowns.

Edwards didn't have a touchdown in the meaningless Week 18 matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers. However, he did find the end zone in eight of the previous 10 games, including three straight before that contest. Meanwhile, the Texans have struggled to stop the run lately. The first touchdown scored against them was a rushing one in three consecutive games to end the regular season. Last week, Kareem Hunt scored both Cleveland touchdowns in the loss to Houston.

Anytime TD Scorer: Devin Singletary (+135)

The Texans' rushing attack was supposed to be the team's strength entering the season. Instead, it has become their weakness. Dameon Pierce flopped in his second year in the league. Thankfully, Singletary picked up his play in the second half this season. The veteran running back led Houston in rushing touchdowns, accounting for 40% of the team's total. More importantly, his role on offense has increased since Houston lost Tank Dell in Week 13.

Over the past six weeks, Singletary has averaged 16.8 rushing attempts per game and scored three touchdowns. He has found the end zone in back-to-back contests, including last week's matchup against the Browns. Meanwhile, the Ravens surrendered only eight touchdowns to running backs during the regular season, the third-fewest in the NFL. However, they did give up a touchdown to running backs in three consecutive games to end the year.

Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers

Packers First TD Scorer: Romeo Doubs (+650)

Green Bay has done an excellent job drafting wide receivers lately. Christian Watson and Jayden Reed are star receivers, but Doubs has been Jordan Love's most reliable weapon. The second-year player had eight receiving touchdowns during the regular season, ranking first on the team and the eighth-most in the NFL. He scored the first Packers touchdown in nearly a quarter of the regular season games. Last week, Doubs led the team in every receiving category, including receiving touchdowns.

More importantly, the matchup is outstanding for the second-year receiver. The 49ers primarily play Cover-3 on defense, using it almost a third of their snaps. Doubs led the team in target per route run rate (25%) and receiving touchdowns (three) among players with at least 60 routes against Cover-3 this year (per Fantasy Points Data). Furthermore, the first offensive touchdown scored against San Francisco was by a wide receiver in 53.3% of the games, including back-to-back contests.

49ers First TD Scorer: George Kittle (+475)

Last week, I had a gut feeling that Dawson Knox would score the first Buffalo Bills touchdown against the Pittsburgh Steelers, and I was correct. I have the same feeling this week with Kittle. The star tight end scored the first 49ers touchdown in only one game this season – the Week 5 matchup against the Dallas Cowboys. However, he did have six receiving touchdowns during the regular season, only one fewer than the team lead.

Meanwhile, the Packers got obliterated by Jake Ferguson last week, allowing him to have 10 receptions for 93 receiving yards and all three of Dak Prescott's touchdowns. Unfortunately, that isn't surprising for Green Bay. They gave up seven receiving touchdowns to tight ends during the regular season, the fourth-most in the NFL. Furthermore, the first touchdown scored against the Packers has been by a tight end in 31.3% of the games this year, including two straight.

Anytime TD Scorer: Christian McCaffrey (-320)

This touchdown pick is low-hanging fruit, but that doesn't matter if the bet hits. McCaffrey suffered a minor calf strain in the Week 17 win over the Washington Commanders. The superstar sat out the meaningless Week 18 matchup, meaning he will have had nearly three weeks to recover before this playoff game. McCaffrey led the NFL in offensive touchdowns (21). Furthermore, he finished first on the team in rushing (14) and receiving scores (seven).

The superstar accounted for 35% of San Francisco's offensive touchdowns during the regular season. More importantly, McCaffrey found the end zone in 86.7% of the games he finished, including five of the previous six contests, before suffering the minor calf strain in Week 17. Meanwhile, the Packers surrendered 13 rushing touchdowns to running backs during the regular season, the seventh-most in the NFL. Tony Pollard found the end zone against Green Bay last week. Therefore, don't be surprised when McCaffrey does it on Saturday night.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:


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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.

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