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NFL Divisional Round Touchdown Scorer Prop Bet Picks & Predictions (Sunday)

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The Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs is here, giving us two days of action. The week concludes with two matchups on Sunday. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers take on the Detroit Lions in the day's first contest. Then, the Kansas City Chiefs face the Buffalo Bills to wrap up the slate.

Millions of dollars will get bet on these games. However, which touchdown prop bets should you bet? Let's take a look at my favorite touchdown scorers for each matchup.

Divisional Round Sunday Football Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @Detroit Lions

Buccaneers First TD Scorer: Mike Evans (+270)

Last week, Mike Evans struggled in the win over the Philadelphia Eagles. He had only three receptions on seven targets for 48 receiving yards and zero touchdowns. However, the star receiver and Baker Mayfield failed to connect on multiple opportunities. Evans has been Mayfield's favorite target all year, accounting for nearly half of the quarterback's passing touchdowns during the regular season. More importantly, the former Texas A&M star is Tampa Bay's go-to receiver early in games.

Evans led the NFL in receiving touchdowns during the regular season, finding the end zone in 64.7% of the contests. Meanwhile, the Lions didn't surrender a touchdown in the Week 6 matchup between these two teams. However, they gave up 22 receiving touchdowns to wide receivers during the regular season, the third-most in the NFL. In addition, a wide receiver scored the first touchdown against Detroit in 56.3% of the games this year, including in three consecutive weeks.

Lions First TD Scorer: David Montgomery (+320)

The veteran running back has always been outstanding near the goal line. David Montgomery had 13 rushing touchdowns during the regular season, the fifth-most in the NFL, despite missing time with injuries and splitting the backfield with Jahmyr Gibbs. Unfortunately, the former Iowa State star left the Week 6 matchup against the Buccaneers after six rushing attempts with an injury. However, he found the end zone in 84.6% of the other games during the regular season.

Montgomery is the Lions' go-to back early in games. The former Chicago Bear had the first Detroit score in a third of the games he played this year, including last week's win over the Rams. Furthermore, he has had the first team touchdown in four of the past seven contests.

Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have an excellent run defense. However, the first touchdown scored against Tampa Bay was via the ground in 35.7% of their regular season contests.

Anytime TD Scorer: Sam LaPorta (+125)

Despite suffering a knee injury in Week 18, Sam LaPorta suited up in the Wild Card victory over the Los Angeles Rams. The rookie played a near-full snap count but only had three targets. Yet, he found the end zone, scoring from two yards away in the second quarter. The former Hawkeye has been a touchdown machine lately, totaling five receiving touchdowns over the past five weeks. LaPorta also had 10 receiving touchdowns during the regular season, the fourth-most in the NFL.

Meanwhile, the star rookie tight end has an appealing matchup in the second round of the playoffs. The Buccaneers gave up only one touchdown in their win over the Eagles last week - a five-yard receiving score to Dallas Goedert. Tampa Bay has struggled to keep tight ends out of the end zone all year, allowing seven receiving touchdowns during the regular season, the fourth-most in the NFL. While he didn't score in the Week 6 matchup, LaPorta did have 11 targets.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills

Chiefs First TD Scorer: Isiah Pacheco (+310)

Kansas City's passing attack hasn't been elite this year. However, their run game has picked up the slack. Despite missing three games, Isiah Pacheco led the team in rushing touchdowns (seven) and offensive scores (nine) during the regular season. By comparison, he had five offensive touchdowns as a rookie. The former seventh-round pick accounted for 24.3% of the Chiefs' offensive touchdowns during the regular season. The second-year running back has also been the team's key offensive player early in games.

Pacheco had the first Kansas City touchdown in nearly half of the games he played during the regular season. While he didn't play in the Week 14 matchup against the Bills, Jerick McKinnon had a seven-yard rushing touchdown for the team's first score. Meanwhile, the first offensive touchdown scored against Buffalo was on the ground in over half of the regular season games, including six consecutive to end the year.

Bills First TD Scorer: Dawson Knox (+1400)

Last week, I correctly predicted Dawson Knox would score the first Bills touchdown. Despite having only two receiving scores during the regular season and never having the team's first touchdown in a game, the veteran tight end showed up when it mattered the most. Therefore, I'm going back to the well this weekend. Knox plays his best football during the postseason. He has six receiving touchdowns in nine career playoff games, including one against the Chiefs a few years ago.

Meanwhile, Kansas City is an impressive play by Tyreek Hill away from not giving up an offensive touchdown in three of their past four games. However, Buffalo's offense is too good to be kept out of the end zone. The Chiefs surrendered only four receiving touchdowns to tight ends during the regular season, the seventh-fewest in the NFL. Yet, two of those scores were the first touchdown in the game for their opponents, with both coming in the past seven weeks.

Anytime TD Scorer: Josh Allen (-115)

The superstar quarterback was unbelievable in the win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, tossing three passing touchdowns. More importantly, Allen had a long-run rushing score. Despite all the talk from the team about cutting back on his rushing workload, the former Wyoming stat had a career year on the ground. Allen's 15 rushing touchdowns accounted for nearly 70% of the Bills' total during the regular season. Furthermore, only Raheem Mostert had more rushing touchdowns than Allen in 2023.

There is no such thing as a guaranteed bet. However, this prop bet is arguably the safest in this matchup. Allen had a rushing touchdown in over 70% of the games during the regular season, including five of the final six contests. Meanwhile, the Chiefs gave up four rushing touchdowns to running backs during the regular season, the ninth-most in the NFL. One of those rushing touchdowns was by Allen in the Week 14 matchup between these two teams.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Sunday:


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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.

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