NFL Futures: Best Bet to Win AFC South (2021)

The outlook of the AFC South has already undergone a seismic shift, with the news of Carson Wentz expected to miss time with a foot ailment. As he was prepared to begin his first year with the Indianapolis Colts, Wentz suffered a foot injury early in training camp, forcing him to undergo surgery. Reports suggest that Wentz will miss anywhere from five to 12 weeks of action, which could lead to him missing games in the regular season. Sportsbooks have noticed, as the Tennessee Titans are now at -120 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook to win the AFC South. With the development of Wentz potentially missing significant time, who is the best bet to win the AFC South in 2021?

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Check out our consensus odds to win the AFC South >>

Houston Texans (+2100)

There’s no telling just how bad the Houston Texans could be in the 2021 season. No matter how much fans in Houston want to convince themselves that Deshaun Watson could be under center in the upcoming season, it’s hard to envision him taking another snap for the organization. Besides his legal issues, Watson has been longing for a trade from the Texans, and some teams have been monitoring his situation since the end of last season. With Watson unlikely to be the starting quarterback, Houston is expected to have Tyrod Taylor or rookie Davis Mills named the starter. Unless Watson miraculously takes the field, the Texans have one of the worst rosters in the NFL, and there’s a decent chance they end up securing the worst record in the NFL in 2021. Betting on Houston to win the AFC South in the upcoming season is a good way to burn money.

Indianapolis Colts (+170)

Optimism was high for the Colts throughout the offseason after landing Wentz in a trade with the Philadelphia Eagles. Despite Wentz’s woes in 2020, Indianapolis was confident that Frank Reich - Wentz’s offensive coordinator from 2016-2017 on the Eagles and now head coach of the Colts - would be able to get the best out of him again. However, with training camps underway, Wentz is already sidelined with a foot injury that could potentially cause him to miss the first five-plus games of the regular season. Seeing that the Colts begin their season against the Seattle Seahawks, the Los Angeles Rams, the Titans, the Miami Dolphins, and the Baltimore Ravens, they could be in for a rough start. Jacob Eason is expected to get the first nod to replace Wentz and it’s undetermined if he can hold the fort until Wentz returns. Also, even when Wentz does return, there’s no guarantee he’s one-hundred percent and that he’s on the same page as his teammates. Even though it’s hard to bet against Reich and the Colts, the injury to Wentz definitely throws a wrench in their plans for 2021.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+700)

The level of excitement for the Jacksonville Jaguars has grown expeditiously since the end of last season. Trevor Lawrence is now the quarterback in Jacksonville and Urban Meyer came out of retirement to become the next head coach of the franchise. While I’m skeptical of Meyer’s transition to the NFL, Lawrence is going to be a special quarterback for years to come. That being said, there will be growing pains for Lawrence as he experiences losing for the first time in his life. Lawrence does have a talented assortment of weapons in D.J. Chark, Laviska Shenault, Marvin Jones Jr., Travis Etienne, and James Robinson. But on the other side of the field, while they did improve on defense, the Jaguars aren’t going to be a top unit in 2021. If the pairing of Lawrence and Meyer pans out, we could see Jacksonville compete in a couple of years, but I’m not expecting immediate success.

Tennessee Titans (-120)

The reigning champions of the AFC South are the Titans and it’s hard not to see why they are the favorites entering the 2021 season. Ryan Tannehill is still the quarterback behind a stout offensive line, Derrick Henry is still bulldozing defenders, and Tennessee now has an elite wide receiver duo of Julio Jones and A.J. Brown. Creating offense hasn’t been an issue for the Titans in recent years while their defense has left a lot to be desired. Last season, Tennessee owned the 29th ranked defense in terms of DVOA. In an attempt to patch up their defense, the Titans signed Bud Dupree in the offseason and added Caleb Farley, Janoris Jenkins, and Elijah Molden to the secondary. Barring any injuries or significant declines in production, Tennessee is positioned well to repeat as AFC South champions in 2021.

Pick: Tennessee Titans (-120)

It feels somewhat lethargic listing the Titans as the best bet to win the AFC South, but who else is in contention? The Colts could be in a hole to start the season if Wentz is unable to suit up, the Jaguars have a rookie quarterback on a team with a below-average defense, and there’s an argument to be made that the Texans don’t have an NFL roster. Even with the Titans coming in at -120 odds to win the division, I would bet on them to win the AFC South before their odds rise even more before the season begins.

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