NFL Futures: Best Bets to Win Super Bowl (2022)
The Chiefs and Buccaneers ultimately weren't the dream Super Bowl matchup that we'd all hoped for in February. When examining 2022 Super Bowl odds, though, there's no questioning the possibility that the returning talent on both rosters — and of course, the signal-callers that lead them — could lead to a sequel.
Both are odds-on favorites to emerge from their respective conferences in 2021. Do the Chiefs and Bucs still stack up as quality futures bet values? We looked at the odds at DraftKings Sportsbook to get a feel for the landscape and picked out a few of our favorite futures bets before the NFL Draft kicks off at the end of April.
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Kansas City Chiefs (+500)
I realize the Chiefs looked overmatched by the ageless wonder in last season's Super Bowl, but I just have a hard time betting against Patrick Mahomes moving forward. Though the Chiefs are less of a value than the Bucs (+750) to win the title next year, I'm rolling with the current favorites if the rematch comes to fruition.
Banged up throughout the year in 2020, Mahomes addressed a turf toe issue in the off-season and should be a full-go when the new year begins. Even playing through the nagging injuries, Mahomes looked superhuman at times. Imagine how he'll perform without any physical limitations — and with motivation to avenge the loss.
While one man doesn’t make a Super Bowl champion football team, Mahomes has a quality supporting cast in Kansas City. The Chiefs haven't necessarily won the off-season to this point. Still, the presence of skill players like Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill should allow them to overcome roster deficiencies that most other teams simply couldn't weather.
The Chargers will be a trendy pick to come out of the AFC West. The Raiders, too, have displayed more progress under Jon Gruden than I had expected. But I don't see anybody keeping the Chiefs out of the playoffs, and I'm betting on the veteran head coach Andy Reid to adjust his game plan effectively once they get there.
Buffalo Bills (+1400)
If there is any AFC challenger with a chance to box out the Chiefs from returning to the Super Bowl stage this season, I think it's the Buffalo Bills.
Josh Allen took a step forward in 2020, solidifying himself among the NFL's most prominent quarterbacks. Before 2020, most football people viewed Allen as a gunslinger who lacked the refinement necessary to lead a team to the promised land. He did a lot to change those perceptions of his game, as his completion percentage — which had been a legitimate demerit on his performance throughout his career — improved to 69.2%. He also had more yards, more touchdowns, and a higher QBR. Allen blended his agility and beefed up his situational awareness. More than anything else, he made better decisions as he led the Bills to the AFC Championship Game.
As Allen's new favorite target, Stefon Diggs, produced in a massive way for Buffalo in year one. His effort definitively silenced doubts about whether trading a first-round pick to get him was prudent for the Bills. The team's blue-collar defense could get a boost in the draft, which may help position them to supplant the Patriots as the AFC East's perennial title contender.
Though his team came up short against the Chiefs for the AFC title last season, Allen's ability to progress so significantly gives me faith he can do it again. If he finds yet another gear in 2021, it's not hard to envision how he might clear that final hurdle on the way to a Super Bowl berth.
Dallas Cowboys (+2800)
The Cowboys looked like juggernauts last season before Dak Prescott went down with a gruesome leg injury. Assuming a full recovery for the recently-inked franchise face, Dallas should be among the league's top offenses again in 2021. Barring an unforeseen move, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup will form one of the league's most daunting wideout trios. On the ground, Ezekiel Elliott will look to bounce back from a trying campaign in the absence of his quarterback.
The hope for health across the line is always a tenuous prospect. A full 17 games from Tyron Smith, Zack Martin, and La'el Collins, though, would be an obvious boost for Elliott and Prescott. The pieces for a potent, balanced attack are in place.
Defense remains an issue for Dallas, but you can expect the Cowboys to address it in the upcoming draft. Adding a lockdown defensive back to pair with Trevon Diggs could change the calculus for Dallas in the secondary. That could make life easier on a Cowboys offense that required huge point totals to keep pace last season.
Dallas has talent, but there's no question that the team has flaws and holes to fill. It’s why DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Cowboys at the edge of the top 10 for Super Bowl odds at +2800. But as their quarterback returns to an NFC East division that hasn't been particularly strong in recent years, the Cowboys should be positioned to take advantage of the relative mediocrity that surrounds them.
From there, emerging from the NFC over the likes of Tom Brady's Bucs or Aaron Rodgers' Packers will be a formidable task for the Cowboys. Still, there's enough juice with this team to like their inflated pre-draft Super Bowl odds.
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Brenden Schaeffer is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Brenden, check out his archive and follow him @bschaeffer12.