NFL Futures Bets: Best Picks & Predictions to Win the AFC
With the 2023 NFL Draft in our rearview mirrors, I now focus on making myself some money as we approach the NFL season.
This year, we’re starting to see new teams emerge as potential favorites to win their division for the first time in decades. Specifically, that team is the Detroit Lions capturing the NFC North. It’ll be interesting to see how their season pans out.
Even more interesting is how the AFC is going to look this season. I have so many questions about how that conference will turn out. For starters, will the real Russell Wilson please stand up? Broncos fans pray to the football Gods that Sean Payton can bring out the best in Wilson and compete against a very good Kansas City Chiefs team.
Can Tua Tagovailoa stay healthy for the Miami Dolphins in a tough AFC East? How about Aaron Rodgers in New York and giving the Jets their best chance for a division title since 2002? I believe there will be some regression from the Buffalo Bills, so the AFC East could be much more competitive than we’ve seen in previous years.
A lot can happen, and a lot will happen. But for now, let’s look at my three favorite bets to win the AFC this year.
NFL Futures: Best Value Bets to Win the AFC
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Chalk: Kansas City Chiefs (+330)
It's hard to imagine the Chiefs not being in the Super Bowl yearly. With Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs can compete at a high level and beat anyone at any time. Looking at their 2023 schedule, predicting more than a few losses for this football team is difficult. I could see them losing a game to the Chargers, Eagles, and the Bills or Bengals.
Other than that, I see a scenario where the Chiefs start the season 8-1 before their bye week. When they get to the playoffs, I could see them drawing the top seed and ultimately finding their way back to the Super Bowl. The odds at +330 make the Chiefs the chalk pick of the AFC, but it's still a good price at plus money.
Value: Cincinnati Bengals (+550)
Just giving everyone a fair warning now, I'm all-in on Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals. I've loved the dynamic of their offense, with Burrow throwing to Tee Higgins, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tyler Boyd for some time. They've added left tackle Orlando Brown to their offensive line, and ultimately, this is the best Bengals offensive line we’ve seen in some time. Sure, Joe Mixon saw a production drop with only 210 carries for 814 yards, but he still recorded seven rushing touchdowns and 60 receptions last season.
Defensively, the Bengals did lose Jessie Bates, but they do have Daxton Hill. Drafting Jordan Battle to play safety for their secondary will also be a sneaky-good pick from the 2023 NFL Draft. Altogether, there's much to be desired with this Bengals team. They can certainly make a run with how they find ways to "gel" at the right time. I could see them winning 11 or 12 games and squeezing out a few playoff wins to get back to the Super Bowl. With odds at +550, throw some coins at this fair price before the season starts.
Long shot: New England Patriots (+3500)
Call me crazy, but I like what the New England Patriots did in the 2023 NFL Draft. They added plenty of depth to their offensive line, which will pay off down the road. Meanwhile, they drafted a potential lockdown cornerback in Christian Gonzalez out of Oregon. The addition of Keion White to their defensive line doesn't move the needle much for me. Yet, if there's any team that can maximize the potential of White, it would be the Patriots.
However, much of this season will rest on the shoulders of quarterback Mac Jones. With Bill O'Brien leaving Alabama to return to New England to become the offensive coordinator, we should see a more stable offensive game plan weekly from the Patriots. Let's not forget that Jones threw for 3,800 yards and 22 touchdowns as a rookie. Sure, the Patriots lost Jakobi Meyers, but they added JuJu Smith-Schuster and maybe they'll be able to tap into the potential of rookie Kayshon Boutte.
Add in the fact that they have a potential bell cow of a back in Rhamondre Stevenson and the Patriots could surprise a few teams across the AFC. I think the Patriots will be better than last year. With the greatest head coach of all time still in the game, I could see the Patriots winning 10 games this year and pulling off an upset in the playoffs. At this price of +3500, it's worth a sprinkle of a few bucks for a longshot play.
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