The NFL season is off to a wild start and now it’s time for my favorite week of the year, overreaction week. Opportunities are ripe to pick off value as people overreact to the one week of NFL action we have, which is an illogical thing to do. A lot of weird stuff can happen in a three-hour window of NFL action, so it’s important to lean on our preseason priors over the one-game sample we have so far. Take note of the things that actually matter, but let’s not shift our opinions on teams too much.
Prop Bet Analyzer: View top-rated props and historical prop performance by player >>
Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Los Angeles Rams to win NFC West (+115)
The Rams dropped an absolute stinker in the NFL season opener. The Bills were dominant and it was a concerning performance for the Rams. Relax. The Rams are a great football team, it is okay for them to lose to a better one. The Rams were +110 to win last Thursday night, implying a 48% win probability. With the loss, they lose just a half-win in their season-long win projection. The 49ers are their main competition in the NFC West. San Francisco had an implied probability of about 67% in their game against Chicago. The loss cuts two-thirds of a win off their season-long projection, a larger drop-off than the Rams. So if you’re just looking at market odds and doing the math here, it was a much more damaging week for the 49ers and Cardinals out west than it was for the Rams.
Some slight downgrades from what we saw Thursday night are deserved, but the Rams are still a top-five team in my power ratings. My NFC West win total projections have the Rams at 10.6, the 49ers at 8.7, the Cardinals at 6.8 and the Seahawks at 6.4. The Rams are the clear favorite and clear best team. One loss against the best team in the league doesn’t change that, so I think these odds are too long at +115.
Denver Broncos under 9.5 wins (-120)
This may seem like an overreaction to Denver’s disastrous Monday night loss in Seattle, but I’m not changing my opinion on the Broncos much. They deserved to win that game and without two goal-line fumbles and mystifying end-of-game management by Nathaniel Hackett, they easily would have. I was lower on this team coming into the season, and with the Broncos failing to take advantage of one of the worst teams on their schedule, I am concerned about this team’s playoff outlook.
The rest of season schedule is brutal. We know their division is a gauntlet with two games apiece against the Chiefs, Chargers and Raiders, but they also play the Rams, Ravens, Colts and 49ers. There are only four games on the Broncos’ schedule that I have them as comfortable favorites (>67% win probability), so this team has their work cut out for them to get to double-digit wins.
I have the Broncos projected for just 8.2 wins, so I think their win total should probably be at 8.5, well below a juiced 9.5. Denver has Russell Wilson and a good roster around him, so it’s certainly possible they go on a run and get to 10 wins, but the rest of season schedule is brutal for this team, so I’m betting against it.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you're new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our How To Section - including How to Avoid the 7 Biggest Sports Betting Mistakes - or head to more advanced strategy - like Thinking Like an Expert Sports Bettor - to learn more.
