NFL Futures: Comeback Player of the Year Picks (Russell Wilson, Sam Darnold)
Under the new guidelines the Associated Press (AP) has for the Comeback Player of the Year (CPOY), Russell Wilson should not be considered. The AP wants players coming back from injury or illness to be considered first. That is why Joe Burrow and Kirk Cousins are at the top of CPOY odds boards.
However, while the AP is trying to guide voters to specific players, they left a loophole in the new guidelines. It still allows for someone like Russell Wilson or Sam Darnold, whose careers had been in the tank, to get the credit they deserve.
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NFL Futures: Comeback Player of the Year Picks & Predictions
Criteria Controversy
For years, the criteria for Comeback Player of the Year were vague. Players just had to ‘overcome adversity’ to return to playing and then play well. What qualified as ‘adversity’ was left to the voters.
More often than not, players coming back from injury were named recipients. But in 2010, Michael Vick won; his adversity - prison. Philip Rivers won in 2013 after having a bad season the previous year.
Such winners were few and far between up until the last five years. Ryan Tannehill won in 2019 after he appeared destined for career backup status, but he resurrected his career with the Titans. Geno Smith had already taken the role of career backup before making the most of his shot with the Seahawks in 2022.
Then there was the curious case of Joe Flacco, last season’s winner. He had been sitting at home all season before getting a call from the injury-depleted Browns and guiding them to a 4-1 record as a starter.
Buffalo Bills safety Damar Hamlin was considered a lock to win by many just for suiting up before Joe Flacco swooped in and stole the show. But Hamlin only played sparingly throughout the season and was not exceptional when he did play.
Flacco came off his couch and helped a lousy team win football games.
Consequently, the AP decided to point voters in a particular direction. Rob Maaddi of the AP referenced the new guidelines in an October tweet:
But even by that criteria (other circumstances), Russell Wilson (or Sam Darnold) should still win CPOY.
Why Russell Wilson Should Win
The AP wants players overcoming serious injuries/illnesses to get first consideration. But just returning to the field is not enough; players need to perform at an exceptional level. With that in mind, let’s take a closer look at the current front-runner, Joe Burrow.
His season ended early last year due to a wrist injury. Through Week 12, he has thrown for 3,028 yards, third-most in the NFL behind Lamar Jackson and Geno Smith. That sounds like exceptional play, right?
Eh... take away the 820 yards from the two games vs. the Ravens and his numbers are less impressive. Excluding those two performances, he’s averaging 245 yards per game, which is two fewer than Dak Prescott. To be fair, 245 yards per game is still solid, but can we consider his play exceptional when his team is 4-7?
Russell Wilson is playing at a similar level (242.4 yards per game), albeit in fewer starts, but his play has undoubtedly elevated the performance of the Steelers’ offense as a whole - and they are winning games.
Sorry, Burrow, but your play is not elevating the offense as a whole and leading to wins.
Bottom Line
Michael Vick, Ryan Tannehill, Geno Smith, Joe Flacco - their careers were over or on the fast track to being over or relegated to being career backups. But they got the chance to play, rejuvenated their careers and became QB1s, playing at a high level.
Russell Wilson, whose odds at DraftKings Sportsbook are now +5000 (he is not listed at FanDuel Sportsbook), had become a pariah after two disastrous years in Denver. It came as a surprise when the Steelers acquired him. It became an even bigger shock when Mike Tomlin benched Justin Fields for him.
He has since guided the team to four wins in five games. With an 8-3 record, the Steelers are in position to win the AFC North.
The only other player with a similar impact listed with odds to win CPOY is Sam Darnold (+8000 at FanDuel Sportsbook; +6000 at DraftKings Sportsbook). But since he’s not overcoming an injury or illness, he must be out, too. However, the new criteria allow for ‘other circumstances’ that caused a player to miss time. Wilson and Darnold both fit that criteria.