NFL Futures Odds & Picks: Best Bet to Win the AFC East (2023)
Over the last two weeks, I’ve gone through my best win total bets for both the AFC and NFC. This week, I’ll continue my NFL preseason betting preview with a look at my favorite bet to win each division.
Just like my win total breakdowns, I’ll start things off with the AFC. Below is my preview and best bet to win the AFC East.
Best Bet to Win the AFC East
All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
AFC East Betting Preview
Odds:
- Buffalo Bills +120
- New York Jets +270
- Miami Dolphins +300
- New England Patriots +800
The Jets are the team generating the most buzz by far entering training camp. They already had a playoff-caliber defense but were held back by atrocious quarterback play. In case you’ve lived under a rock since March, the Jets addressed that glaring need by acquiring Aaron Rodgers in the definition of a win-now trade. Now, the Jets have a great chance to snap the longest postseason drought in sports.
While the Jets have a roster that’s capable of competing for a playoff berth in the AFC, I’m not sure the value is there at +270. The Buccaneers provided the blueprint for how to win immediately after acquiring a legendary QB, but I’m not sure New York’s roster is quite on par with that 2020 Buccaneers team. There are still significant questions along the offensive line, and I think New York’s defense still has something to prove after benefitting from facing a handful of backup quarterbacks last season.
The Bills are rightfully the favorites to win this division. They’re the most complete team in the division, if not the entire AFC, and finished last season tops in DVOA. The only question surrounding Buffalo is the pass rush, which ranked 14th in the league in sacks and pressure rate. QB Josh Allen’s bunch definitely has the goods to win the AFC East yet again, but at +120 the value isn’t quite there for such a competitive division.
This leads me to the Dolphins, who I already recommended a win total over bet on earlier this summer. The Dolphins have a ton of upside entering the 2023 season after a breakout year under first-year head coach Mike McDaniel. Miami’s passing game should remain lethal so long as Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle all remain healthy. It’s the changes on the defensive side of the ball that have me excited about Miami’s potential.
The Dolphins made a tremendous hire, landing Vic Fangio as their defensive coordinator. While Fangio’s head coaching stint in Denver didn’t work out, there’s no doubting his ability as a defensive game planner and play caller. Miami’s defense should improve based on scheme and preparation alone.
The cherry on top was the acquisition of Jalen Ramsey, who gives Miami a legit No. 1 cornerback to lock up talented pass catchers across the division and conference. Ramsey earned a really solid 86.4 overall grade from Pro Football Focus, and, at 28 years old, I suspect he’s still got plenty left to offer Miami’s defense.
Like Buffalo, Miami could also afford to improve from a pass-rushing standpoint, but I think the arrow is pointing up for a unit that finished 15th in DVOA a year ago.
Obviously, Tagovailoa’s health gives Miami a much lower ceiling than its divisional counterparts. I really liked Miami’s decision to sign Mike White as the backup QB. White did an admirable job for the Jets a season ago, and is a more than capable option. Should Tua go down, I’d feel much more confident in White than I did in Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson last season.
In a division filled with a dominant incumbent and the most hyped team of the offseason, I suspect Miami is flying a bit under the radar. Therefore, I recommend taking a stab on the Dolphins to win the division at +300.
Best bet: Miami to win the AFC East +300
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