NFL Futures Odds & Picks: Best Bet to Win the AFC North (2023)
Our NFL preseason futures series continues with a look at another divisional future. This time, I’ll examine and provide a best bet to win what could be a highly competitive AFC North, which features four teams that are thinking playoffs entering the 2023 campaign.
Below is my breakdown and best bet to win the division. And be sure to check out my AFC East and AFC West breakdowns and predictions if you haven’t already.
Best Bet to Win the AFC East
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
AFC East Betting Preview
Odds
- Cincinnati Bengals (+150)
- Baltimore Ravens (+220)
- Cleveland Browns (+425)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (+450)
Cincinnati Bengals (+150)
Let’s start with the incumbents and favorites, the Bengals, who had a relatively busy offseason by their standards. The marquee move was signing tackle Orlando Brown to a four-year $64 million deal to solidify a position of weakness along Cincinnati’s offense. They also underwent an overhaul in the secondary. Safeties Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell have departed, and the Bengals brought in Nick Scott and cornerback Sidney Jones to supplement their back end.
By now, we know who the Bengals are. They feature one of the best young quarterbacks in the game in Joe Burrow, as well as arguably the best receiving duo in the league in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. The offensive line presumably should improve with Brown in the fold, but we have to be cautious assuming a huge leap after Cincinnati made numerous additions to a unit that ultimately struggled most of the year.
What worries me more about Cincinnati is the defense, a unit that ranked 11th in DVOA last season will look to replace two starters in the secondary, which could offset Cincinnati’s talented front seven. A healthy Burrow gives the Bengals as good a shot as anyone in this division, but with such short odds, I’m looking elsewhere, given the questions I have on defense.
Baltimore Ravens (+220)
The Baltimore Ravens collapsed under the weight of attrition in 2022. But better injury luck combined with a refreshed offensive scheme could make the 2023 campaign a bounce-back season.
The Ravens agreed to a long-term deal with dynamic QB Lamar Jackson, and Jackson will now be operating under Todd Monken’s direction. While Greg Roman deserves credit for unleashing Jackson as the dual-threat monster he’s become, his scheme and tendencies became far too predictable toward the end of his Baltimore tenure. Monken should bring with him elements of the up-tempo spread principles he ran at Georgia, a welcomed change.
The biggest question for Baltimore comes at the skill positions. Tailback J.K. Dobbins has the makings of a dynamic back, but he began training camp on the PUP list. The Ravens also need young receivers Rashod Bateman and first-round pick Zay Flowers to emerge in a passing game that’s been overly reliant on tight end Mark Andrews. If their talent finally comes to fruition, this Baltimore offense could be poised for an explosion.
Defensively, the Ravens remain rock-solid. Baltimore let go of oft-injured cornerback Marcus Peters but added Trayvon Mullen and Rock Ya-Sin to sure up the back end. And despite a slew of injuries, Baltimore still finished seventh in defensive DVOA.
Injuries are impossible to predict year-to-year, but it’s hard to imagine Baltimore getting hit any harder by the injury bug than they did a year ago. With better health, a new offensive identity, and a manageable schedule, Baltimore has the talent and coaching to compete with the upper echelon of the AFC.
Cleveland Browns (+425)
The Cleveland Browns have an immensely high ceiling and a pretty low floor. It mostly hinges upon whether Deshaun Watson returns to his elite form after looking awfully rusty in his return from suspension late last season.
You can’t really argue with the weapons Cleveland’s brass has put around Watson in hopes of getting him back to his franchise QB caliber. He has arguably the best tailback in the league by his side in Nick Chubb, one of the best offensive lines in the league and a pretty solid receiving trio featuring Amari Cooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones and the newly acquired Elijah Moore. Rookie Cedric Tillman is also an exciting prospect to keep an eye on.
I also like Cleveland’s additions to its defense. The Browns were atrocious against the run last season, ranking 28th in DVOA. They addressed that glaring need by signing Dalvin Tomlinson and drafting Baylor run plugger Siaki Ika. After letting Jadeveon Clowney walk, the Browns gave Myles Garrett a new pass-rushing partner by trading for Za’Darius Smith. Cleveland also added a veteran with Super Bowl-winning experience in safety, Juan Thornhill.
The Browns are a team that, on paper, should be in the playoff mix in 2023. If Watson returns to his old self, the ceiling ascends even higher.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+450)
Last, but not least, there’s the Pittsburgh Steelers, who will look to take a leap in Kenny Pickett’s second season. The Steelers also had a pretty active offseason. They brought in guard Isaac Seumalo and drafted tackle Broderick Jones 14th overall in an attempt to shore up a deteriorating offensive line. While I didn’t love the signings of Patrick Peterson and Allen Robinson, the Steelers might have landed some impact players via the draft in CB Joey Porter Jr. and defensive tackle Keeanu Benton.
Once again, the Steelers should have a rock-solid defense and will always be a tough opponent under coach Mike Tomlin. But I need to see more development from Pickett, who is clearly the fourth-best QB in this division. The pieces are there. However, Pickett must prove he’s a legitimate franchise quarterback to vault the team back into contention.
Bottom Line
This decision came down to the Ravens and Browns. The Browns present much more value and will be a team I’m buying in on this season in general. But Baltimore has more known commodities while having a similarly high ceiling.
Best Bet: Baltimore Ravens to Win the AFC North (+220)
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