NFL Futures Odds & Picks: Best Bet to Win the AFC South
We wrap up our look at AFC divisional futures with the most prestigious division within the conference, the mighty AFC South. While this division clearly isn’t the most talented on paper, there’s more intrigue from top-to-bottom than there has been in quite some time.
The Jaguars are out to prove their legitimacy and that their 2022 division title wasn’t a fluke. The Titans are looking to reestablish themselves after falling apart down the stretch and recently signed DeAndre Hopkins. The Colts were vastly disappointing with the corpse of Matt Ryan under center, but they were bad enough to land Anthony Richardson fourth overall. And the arrow might actually be pointing up for the Houston Texans after hiring DeMeco Ryans and aggressively landing their (hopefully) franchise quarterback and pass rusher.
So, can anyone dethrone the Jags in 2023? Here’s my breakdown and best bet for the AFC South. And be sure to check out my breakdowns of the AFC East, AFC West, and AFC North from earlier in the month.
NFL Futures Odds & Picks: Best Bet to Win the AFC South
Odds to Win the AFC South
All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
After grossly exceeding expectations in 2022, all eyes will be on the upstart Jaguars in Trevor Lawrence’s third season. Lawrence’s enormous potential started to come to fruition in his first year with Doug Pederson, and there’s no reason to believe he won’t take another leap forward in 2023.
The biggest X-factor for Jacksonville will be newly acquired wideout Calvin Ridley, who will look to revive his career after an injury-shortened 2021 season followed by a suspension that cost him all of 2022. Ridley has a 1,300-yard season under his belt and gives this offense an even higher ceiling if he can regain that form and stay on the field. I also liked Jacksonville’s decisions to replace tackle Jawaan Taylor with Anton Harrison in the first round and draft RB Tank Bigsby in Round 3 to serve as the short-yardage back behind Travis Etienne.
Defensively is where my questions lie with the Jaguars, specifically against the pass. Jacksonville ranked 30th in pass defense DVOA a season ago and didn’t do much in free agency to address it. The Jags did spend five draft picks on edge rushers and defensive backs, but all of them came in Round 4 or later.
Lucky for Jacksonville, they may not need an elite defense to win a division that could have three rookies starting at quarterback by season’s end.
I have been down on the Tennessee Titans for the last several years, and last year was finally the year the wheels came off. Granted, it required a seven-game losing streak to end the year after a 7-3 start. But the fact is the Titans simply weren’t a good team last year, ranking 23rd in DVOA.
Tennessee is also a strange team from a roster building perspective. The Titans feel more like a team that should rebuild than go for it, but they still have a workhorse back, Derrick Henry, veteran quarterback Ryan Tannehill, and recently signed DeAndre Hopkins to headline an otherwise completely unproven receiving group. The Titans used their limited draft capital to shore up a deteriorating offensive line and take another shot at finding a long-term QB by ending Will Levis’ draft freefall in Round 2. But after an offseason that was more about achieving salary cap flexibility, it’s hard to envision this team having a high ceiling in 2023.
Mike Vrabel commands a ton of respect as a head coach, and the Titans will likely be a team I back as an underdog throughout the year. But too much is riding on an aging Tannehill and the 29-year-old Henry for me to back Tennessee.
The Indianapolis Colts are the most fascinating team in this division. Indy has been held back by Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan the past two seasons. But now the Colts actually have some long-term hope under center in the form of Anthony Richardson. The Florida product certainly has the highest upside in the 2023 quarterback class. He’s got the tools and talent to become the next member of the dual-threat QB lineage. But boy, is Richardson an unseasoned prospect, and we don’t even know if he’ll beat out Gardner Minshew for starting duties in training camp.
That being said, the Colts have talent on offense. Jonathan Taylor is a young stud RB, Michael Pittman has an immense amount of talent but has been held back by terrible quarterback play. And I’m holding out hope that Indy’s once formidable offensive line didn’t suddenly fall off a cliff last season. Whether it’s Richardson or Minshew, the starting quarterback is walking into a decent, and perhaps good situation and a refreshed offense under new coach Shane Steichen.
The Colts also had one of the deepest 2023 draft classes in the league and infused a lot of youth across a variety of positions. And that’s sort of the story when assessing this Colts team. If Richardson blossoms right away, Indianapolis has the potential to get back to the playoffs. But the Colts feel like an upstart team that’s close but not quite there yet.
Lastly, 2023 will most likely be a rebuilding year for the Houston Texans. But at least there’s reason for hope. I liked C.J. Stroud a lot coming out of Ohio State and liked Houston’s aggressiveness to trade up to No. 3 overall to land edge rusher Will Anderson, who might be the best player in this 2023 class. Houston also added a slew of affordable veterans during free agency to give the roster more legitimacy.
A defense that actually ranked 22nd in DVOA should improve under their new head coach Ryans. But Stroud doesn’t have a ton to work with offensively. 2023 will be about determining what Houston has in young pieces Nico Collins, John Metchie, and Dameon Pierce.
There’s reason for optimism in Houston for the first time in a long time, but the Texans still need more top end players on both sides of the ball.
Best Bet to Win the AFC South: Jacksonville Jaguars
I rarely endorse chalky favorites with divisional futures, but in this case, it’s hard to see anyone but the Jags securing the division crown. Jacksonville has its franchise quarterback, a talented roster, and a good coaching staff. I’m not sure Vrabel can do enough to overcome the glaring holes across his roster. And while I love Indianapolis’ upside, I don’t think Richardson sees the field much as a rookie.
Sometimes you can’t get cute with future betting. The Jaguars are the logical pick to win the AFC South.
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