NFL Futures Odds & Picks: Best Bet to Win the AFC West (2023)
Earlier this summer, I provided best win total bets across both the AFC and NFC. This week, I’ll continue my NFL preseason betting preview with a look at my favorite bet to win each division.
Below is my preview and best bet to win the AFC West.
- Best Bets to Win AFC: East
- More NFL Betting Advice
- NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- NFL Betting Strategy
Best Bet to Win the AFC West
All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
AFC West Betting Preview
Odds:
- Kansas City Chiefs -165
- Los Angeles Chargers +340
- Denver Broncos +550
- Las Vegas Raiders +1200
The defending Super Bowl champs are deserving favorites to win the AFC West yet again. But, at -165, the Chiefs aren’t worth considering here. Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce are studs. The Chiefs made a savvy move by replacing departed tackle Orlando Brown with Jawaan Taylor. Still, the Chiefs have some questions regarding a WR group headlined by Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and rookie Rashee Rice.
Instead, the question when capping the AFC West is whether there’s a team that could dethrone the Chiefs in 2023. First, let’s throw out the Raiders, who have major holes on defense and downgraded at quarterback. Plus, Josh Jacobs could hold out, and Josh McDaniels doesn’t warrant much trust as a head coach.
As for Denver, I loved the hiring of Sean Payton as head coach. but, quite frankly, I need to see what he can do to help Russell Wilson after a disastrous 2022 season. While +550 is tantalizing odds, I’d prefer to pass until I know whether Wilson’s abysmal performance was more related to Nathaniel Hackett’s incompetence or a troubling sign of things to come. If Wilson can show drastic improvement, the Broncos have a defense capable of getting them back to the playoffs.
That leaves us with the Chargers, a team I’m high on entering the year.
If there’s a quarterback who feels most on the cusp of a massive, MVP-type year, it has to be Justin Herbert. The Oregon product has all the tools and a rocket arm. He was let down by horrific play calling last year, but Herbert still amazingly finished second in the league in passing yards despite ranking 31st in intended air yards per pass attempt. In other words, Herbert made as much as he could out of Joe Lombardi’s horribly conservative and unimaginative play calling.
There’s good news! Lombardi is out, and Kellen Moore is in. If nothing else, Moore should utilize Herbert’s rocket arm more often. Just look at Dak Prescott, who finished 10th in average depth of target last year. The Chargers still have big-play machine Mike Williams and added another potential home-run threat in Quentin Johnston during the draft. With Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler back, the Chargers’ passing game has plenty of elements to keep opponents on their toes schematically.
Los Angeles’ defense leaves more to be desired, however. The Chargers were horrific against the run — part of which is the design of Brandon Staley’s defense — and didn’t do much to address the defensive line. They did at least retain Morgan Fox and spent a sixth-round pick on Boise State product Scott Matlock. The Chargers also still have some cap space to utilize and could perhaps add a run plugger via free agency during training camp.
That all being said, the Chargers have a couple of defensive stars in Joey Bosa and and Derwin James. They also have some exciting pieces in the secondary in J.C. Jackson and Asante Samuel Jr. Other than the Chiefs, Los Angeles has the highest ceiling in the division.
Of course, this is the Chargers we’re talking about. So heartbreak always feels imminent. But with a new offensive identity and better health defensively, Los Angeles has the makings of a team that can take a leap in 2023.
Best bet: Chargers to win the AFC West +340
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