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NFL Futures: Offensive Rookie Of The Year Picks (Jayden Daniels & Bo Nix)

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Jayden Daniels is having an incredible season. Washington's rookie quarterback has played so well that he has a better than 85% chance of winning Offensive Rookie of the Year (Odds Courtesy Of FanDuel Sportsbook). But it may be time to fade him and bet on someone else.

I know what you're thinking: he's got -600 odds right now; I'm not betting on Daniels anyway. Betting $600 to win $100 just isn't worth it. But there's an even better reason. With how he's been playing and with how another rookie quarterback-yes, Bo Nix — is playing, that 85% chance may be closer to 50%.

Offensive Rookie Of The Year Odds

The Case For Fading Jayden Daniels

Daniels was hot right out of the gate with a very impressive 4-1 start to his rookie season.

He wasted no time letting the NFL know the next great dual threat had arrived with 88 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. His 77% completion percentage through Week 5 was something you don't see on many (if any) veteran quarterback stat lines. Take away the fifth game,  the win over Cleveland, and he completed over 82% of his passes in his first four games in the NFL!

His start definitely encouraged voters to recognize his accomplishments and bettors to put money on him. However, awards are not won in the season’s first 4-5 weeks.

Since the win over the Browns, in the five full games he's played, his completion percentage was 62%, which is not bad, but it isn't exceptional. He's not running nearly as much, either. In his last five complete games, he's carried the ball 42 times for 132 yards; in his first five, he had 57 carries for 300 yards and four touchdowns.

Then, of course, there's Washington's record. Daniels led the Commanders to a 4-1 record in his first five but in his last five full games, he was 2-3.

Making A Case For Betting On Bo Nix To Win OROY

While Jayden Daniels looked like the guy to bet on winning OROY in the first few weeks of the season, Bo Nix looked like the first guy everyone should fade. But just as awards are won in the first four weeks of the season, they aren't lost then, either.

After Week 4, the Broncos were 2-2, but this was more in spite of Nix than because of him. Since then, Denver has gone 4-3 to improve to 6-5. There is little to no chance they will overtake the Chiefs for the division lead, but they are now in a position to make the postseason, something they haven't done since winning Super Bowl 50.

Nix has had a lot to do with the team's success. In his last seven games, he has had multiple passing touchdowns five times, completed more than 70% of his passes in four games, thrown for 200+ yards in six of seven games, and has thrown just two interceptions. In his Week 11 start vs. the Atlanta Falcons, Nix put on a clinic, completing 84.9% of his passes (28-33) for his first 300+ yard game (307) and four TDs.

But Should You Bet On Nix Or Daniels To Win OROY?

Whether you 'should' make a bet is always up to the individual bettor. But if you were to bet on one, we'd have to go with Nix, not so much because of his play. At -600, there is no value in betting on Daniels. With Nix, you can turn $100 into $500 (your stake plus $400 in winnings).

As for who will win, both of their resumes lack the same thing-a signature win.

Daniels has beaten just one team with a winning record (Arizona Cardinals). He lost to Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Tampa Bay. Nix has beaten just one team with a record over .500 as well (Atlanta Falcons) and has losses to Kansas City, the Ravens, the Steelers, and Seattle.

It had appeared as if Daniels had all but locked up the award, but not anymore. As for who will win, it depends on how they play down the stretch. Can Nix continue to improve? Can Daniels regain his early season form? Will either get a signature win (both have one shot-Daniels v. Eagles and Nix vs. Chargers/Chiefs)?

Only time will tell.

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