NFL Line Movement Predictions: Super Bowl (49ers vs. Chiefs)
We're less than a week away from Super Bowl LVIII, and there's still plenty of time to make valuable bets for the big game. In fact, if you're just now starting to analyze the market, you haven't missed much, as we're right back where we started when it comes to the spread and the total.
To recap the movement through the first week, the total has held steady at 47.5 points since the market opened. As for the side, San Francisco opened as a 2.5-point favorite, and they were quickly bet down to the 1.0- to 1.5-point range before slowly creeping back up to the 2.0- to 2.5-point range, where we now sit (as of Monday afternoon).
Below, I'll break down some of the factors that could move the lines in either direction as we approach kickoff. I'll also touch on when's the best time to pull the trigger on a side or total wager.
Finally, in case you missed it, here's part one of this series, where I gave my thoughts on where the spread and total could move through the first week.
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Predicted Line Movement for Super Bowl LVIII
Odds are courtesy of varying sportsbooks. Check out the Betting Pros NFL odds comparison page for the latest lines.
Projected Side Movement
Let's address the $1 million question right off the bat. Will we ever see Kansas City get to a 3.0-point underdog for Super Bowl LVIII? While we've had some action on San Francisco throughout the later part of the bye week, I don't anticipate enough money coming in on the Niners to move this spread out to a full 3.0 points. Currently, there's only one "Chiefs +2.5" on the betting board, and it's priced at -115. The rest of the market is still sitting at 49ers -2.0, mostly priced at -110 each way.
For those newer to sports betting, 3.0 is a key number when betting the side. NFL games land with a 3.0-point margin of victory more than any other margin. Specifically in the Super Bowl, dating back to 2002, seven out of 22 Super Bowls (31.8%) have landed with a 3.0-point margin of victory. That's why, in some cases, it literally is the $1 million question. It's important to have the full 3.0 points, so you have a push to fall back on.
When we look at the factors that move lines, injury news is one of the main variables. And, at this point, we pretty much know who will (and who won't) be on the field for Sunday's Super Bowl. Per the Chiefs injury report, it's confirmed that DE Charles Omenihu will miss the game with an ACL injury. He was Kansas City's third-leading sack-man, racking up 7.0 sacks during the regular season. Also, All-Pro guard Joe Thuney is still listed as questionable with a pectoral injury, but Adam Schefter stated last week that it's extremely unlikely he'll play.
As for San Francisco, there is no new injury news. It appears that everyone who was able to play in the NFC Championship will be good to go for Sunday.
So, as impactful as players like Omenihu and Thuney are on the field, it's rarely reflected in the point spread. Perhaps it was a partial reason why we saw some buy-back on the 49ers last week, but it's tough to tell. My opinion is that we stay inside of 3.0 points. If anything, I believe the spread will stay right here in the 2.0-point range leading up to kickoff.
If you're looking to bet on the Chiefs for Super Bowl LVIII, I think now's the best time to lock them in. It appears we won't get the opportunity to hammer Kansas City +3.0, so I'd suggest taking them to simply win the game outright at +110. You have to go all the way back to 1991 (NYG 20 – BUF 19) to find a Super Bowl that landed inside of 3.0 points. From a value perspective, you're better off taking the plus-money payout with the Chiefs to win outright. On the flip side, if you want to back the 49ers, there's really no sense in paying the tax on the moneyline (-125). It'd be a more valuable bet to lay these 2.0 insignificant points and avoid the extra juice.
Projected Total Movement
As noted, this Super Bowl's total hasn't moved off the opening line of 47.5 points.
Two important factors have an impact on moving totals. First, it's the weather. Considering this game will be played in a dome in Las Vegas, the weather will be a non-factor. Second, it's injuries. I thought the news of Omenihu would at least push us north by 0.5 points, but it surprisingly did not.
However, I still believe that we will see some organic interest move this line to the 48.0-to-48.5-point range. The public loves betting overs, and typically, casual bettors aren't locking in their bets until later in the week. Furthermore, essentially every skill player is 100% healthy in this game, which leads me to believe that someone out there wants to have action on the over.
That's my only theory on the total for this contest, at least in terms of line movement. Ultimately, I believe we'll see a move north before "sharp money" comes back in on the under. Personally, that's the approach that I'm taking as well. I like the under, but I'll be waiting to hopefully get a more favorable number.
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