NFL Line Movement Predictions: Super Bowl LVIII (49ers vs. Chiefs)
The Super Bowl is finally upon us, and if you're looking to make valuable bets for the big game, then the process starts way before kickoff on February 11th. This will be my first of two articles (the other will be posted on February 6th) where I'll analyze the projected line movement for the side and total for Super Bowl LVIII. Let's dive into the opening odds and explore where these lines could go.
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Predicted Line Movement for Super Bowl LVIII
Odds from varying sportsbooks. Check out the Betting Pros NFL odds comparison page for the latest lines.
Projected Side Movement
San Francisco opened as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday night and we've already seen money come in on Kansas City, knocking the spread down to the 1.0- to 1.5-point range in favor of the 49ers.
So, where will it go from here? Well, the movement on the side isn't going to be very eventful. There are no key numbers (i.e. 3.0, 7.0) to move through at this point. It would take a lot of action on San Francisco to move the spread back toward a full 3.0 points. And, if we did go that high, you can expect a ton of resistance from the market, where we'd see any 'Kansas City +3.0s' get gobbled up very quickly. I mean, who wouldn't want to be in possession of a ticket where you get Patrick Mahomes +3.0 points in the Super Bowl? I sure would, but I don't think we'll get that opportunity.
On the flip side, the other notable move could be to push through a pick 'em, where the Chiefs would become slight favorites. The only way I think that's possible is if San Francisco has a horrendous injury report over the next week. However, that's extremely unlikely considering the Niners suffered no major injuries in the NFC Championship. Deebo Samuel appears to be more than fine as he hauled in eight passes for a team-leading 89 receiving yards. Defensively, linebacker Dre Greenlaw went down with a stinger, but he returned to the game. Even if he was somehow downgraded, a defensive player isn't impactful enough to flip a spread.
Ultimately, we should reside in the 1.0- to 2.0-point range up until kickoff. If I were to predict any specific movement, it'd be that San Francisco moves back toward being a 2.0-point favorite. As I said, we're kind of in limbo right now with no key numbers to push through.
My only advice for placing a bet on the side with Kansas City would be to take the moneyline (+100) with the Chiefs since these points are very insignificant. If you're leaning toward the 49ers, rather than lay -118 on the moneyline, you'd be better off from a value standpoint to just play them -1.0 (-110) to save the eight cents. Obviously, a game can land inside of a field goal margin, but if you're betting for the long term, it's unwise to lay an extra 8% tax for one insignificant point.
Projected Total Movement
The total will be a little more interesting in terms of potential movement. This line opened at 47.5 points, and it has held here through the first 24 hours. A couple of things to note for the total would be weather and injuries. Well, this game will be played in a dome in Las Vegas so weather will be a 0% factor. As for injuries, I mentioned above that San Francisco escaped unscathed in their conference championship game.
On the other hand, Kansas City entered the AFC Championship with a couple of noteworthy injuries. Isiah Pacheco was listed as questionable (toe, ankle) entering the game, but he played and amassed 82 scrimmage yards (68 rushing, 14 receiving). The Chiefs were without All-Pro offensive lineman Joe Thuney (pectoral) and linebacker Willie Gay Jr. (neck). Per Adam Schefter, Thuney will likely miss the Super Bowl. Also, Kansas City lost pass rusher Charles Omenihu (ACL) in the conference championship round.
However, with all skilled players healthy and the weather being a non-factor, that leaves us with "organic interest" to move the total. Knowing that the public loves high-scoring games, I anticipate this total moving north as high as 49.0 points. However, look for a buy-back on the under at that point. I doubt we reach 50 points with these two defenses. While we've seen a decent resurgence from Kansas City's offense, we still have to remember that they were notably inefficient in the red zone this year (17th, 54.1% touchdown-scoring rate in the red zone).
Ultimately, I think this number is about right for the total. Knowing Kansas City's red zone woes, I wouldn't want to be holding an over ticket around the 50.0-point range. On the contrary, is anyone running to the window to bet the under at this number in a game featuring San Francisco's dynamic offense (3rd, 28.9 PPG) going against Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes?
My best guess is that we'll see organic interest push this total up to the 48.5- to 49.0-point range. That's where I'd entertain a wager on the under. As for over-bettors, I think now would be the best time to lock in a bet. I can't see this total coming down with these two offensive-minded head coaches at their respective helm.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday: