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NFL Love, Like, Lean and Leave Picks & Predictions: Week 10 (2023)

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Now that’s how you get back on track. Our Chiefs, Ravens, and Browns-Cardinals under bets hit with relative ease for a perfect 3-0 mark in Week 9.

The goal is to keep building momentum into Week 10, but this week’s board is not loaded with games I’m gravitating toward. No excuses! Let’s keep the winning going.

2023 record: 

  • Loves: 3-6
  • Likes: 6-3
  • Leans: 6-3
  • Total: 15-12

Week 10 Love, Like, Lean Picks

Love: Dallas Cowboys First Half -10 vs. New York Giants 

When the board doesn’t jump out at you, it forces you to search even deeper for angles. And I’ll keep my rationale simple for this one: I suspect the Giants are walking into an absolute buzzsaw.

The G-Men were trounced by the Las Vegas Raiders a week prior, now go back on the road to face a division rival that’s looking to get some frustrations out after doing everything they could to lose to the Philadelphia Eagles last week. Oh, and Tommy DeVito is back under center after the Giants lost Daniel Jones for the year.

Dallas has also played the frontrunner role extremely well. They obliterated the Giants in Week 1, 40-0, crushed the Jets at home a week later, 30-10, killed the New England Patriots 38-3, and most recently clobbered the Los Angeles Rams 43-20. All of those games came at home as well. Following that loss to Philly, I suspect the Cowboys will relish the chance to beat up a division rival.

These guys are professionals, so I won’t go as far as saying the Giants will quit on the season. However, New York has fallen hard from last year’s playoff season, and comments have come out citing the coaching staff’s inability to adjust. I could see the Giants coming out flat, dejected and unprepared.

I don’t mind betting Dallas on the full game spread either, but am isolating the first half because I can’t get myself to lay 17.5 points in the NFL with backdoor covers always lurking. Either way, this has rout written all over it.

Like: Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers First Half Under 19.5

How about another first half bet? As far as angles go, you won’t find many better than betting on a slow start between the Packers and Steelers. Pittsburgh’s averaging 6.9 points in the first half this season, while Green Bay has been notorious for its slow starts and ranks dead-last with an average of 4.5 first half points per game. Defensively, both teams have been average in the first half, allowing around 12 points per game in the first 30 minutes.

Both of these passing games are inefficient and lack much explosiveness, so big plays shouldn’t be a huge concern at least early on. It’s a low total for a first half, but I just don’t see this game beginning in a shootout.

Lean: Tennessee Titans-Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over 38.5 

This game has sneaky potential to be a high-scoring affair like we saw last week when the Buccaneers lost 39-37 to the Houston Texans. While Tennessee's offense doesn't have quite as much explosive upside as Houston's, I've liked what I've seen from Will Levis in his first two starts. And he'll face a Buccaneers defense that might be still overvalued in the market.

Tampa Bay stuffs the run well, but they actually rank 28th in EPA pass defense. This unit is also below-average in pressure rate despite ranking fifth in blitz rate. Tennessee's defense is almost a carbon copy of Tampa's. The Titans defend the run well, but are even worse at generating pressure and rank 26th in EPA pass defense. And while Baker Mayfield isn't a quarterback I'm pounding the table for, it's worth noting that Tampa is averaging 0.1 fewer adjusted net yards per pass attempt than Kansas City and Dallas.

This total just feels a tad too low, as both defenses are also allowing just shy of two points per drive.

Leave: Atlanta Falcons -1.5 at Arizona Cardinals, Houston Texans +6.5 at Cincinnati Bengals

This game just has so much uncertainty and variance. Am I really going to back Taylor Heinicke as a road favorite? Conversely, I think I’d rather see one game from Kyler Murray before I’m running to the window to back the Cardinals.

As a bonus, I’m staying away from the Texans-Bengals game as well. The Texans and the points are tempting, especially when considering that the Bengals have a crucial game against the Ravens next Thursday night. The Bengals could opt to play it safe with Ja’Marr Chase, something they’ve already done by ruling out Tee Higgins and Sam Hubbard.

However, I just can’t quite trust C.J. Stroud on the road, where Houston’s offense has been drastically different. Stroud has thrown for nearly 400 fewer yards, and just three touchdowns on the road. And Houston has struggled to establish much of a running game all season. I’ll sit it out and let the Texans prove it to me.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>


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