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NFL Love, Like, Lean and Leave Picks & Predictions: Week 12 (2023)

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Last week was another 2-1 performance in which our Love bet fell short; the Dolphins are dead to me for failing to cover against Aidan O’Connell off the bye. Still, you could argue we easily could’ve gone 3-0 or 0-3. The Rams needed a missed field goal as time expired to steal a win from Seattle, while the Bears nearly blew the cover along with the game after leading by double digits with minutes to go.

That said, this Thanksgiving, we are definitely thankful - and unapologetic - for the fortunate wins we’ve had and will hopefully have the rest of the way.

Without further ado, let’s get into my Love, Like and Lean for Week 12.

2023 record: 

  • Loves: 4-7
  • Likes: 7-4
  • Leans: 7-4
  • Total: 18-15

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    Week 12 Love, Like, Lean Picks

    (Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

    Love: Buffalo Bills +3.0 @ Philadelphia Eagles (-102)

    I’m willing to believe the Bills steadied the ship in a dominant victory over the Jets last week. I believe Ken Dorsey’s play calling was a problem, as Buffalo’s offense just looked out of sync for much of the year. The Bills averaged 5.5 yards per play against a steady Jets defense and put up 32 points despite going just one for four in the red zone.

    I like the spot here for Buffalo, even on the road. Philadelphia is coming off of a resilient victory over the Chiefs on the road in a huge revenge spot. While a home matchup vs. Buffalo isn’t anything to sneeze at, I could see the Eagles coming out a little flat.

    As someone who bet the Eagles against the Chiefs Monday night, I’m willing to admit that they were fortunate to come away with that win. Philadelphia’s offense once again looked off, particularly Jalen Hurts, whose mobility appears reduced. Hurts also struggled mightily against Steve Spagnuolo’s devised pressure, something Sean McDermott and his staff can emulate. Let’s also not forget Kansas City turned the ball over twice in the red zone and dropped what would’ve been the go-ahead touchdown pass late.

    I also like the matchup for Buffalo, who has the firepower to exploit an Eagles secondary that ranks just 13th in EPA pass defense and allows the third-most receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers. After a couple of consecutive quiet outings from Stefon Diggs, this feels like the week he awakens with a big effort.

    Backing Allen is always risky, given his propensity for turning the ball over. However, the Eagles have been rather fortunate to be 9-1, while the Bills have been a bit unlucky with turnovers and injuries. I think we see some regression in a game the Bills win straight up.

    Like: Derrick Henry OVER Rushing Yards vs. Carolina Panthers 

    A prop for Henry’s rushing total hasn’t been posted yet. However, I’d be pretty willing to back him so long as the number is reasonable.

    We haven’t gotten many King Henry games this year. In fact, he’s only had two games with more than 100 rushing yards. A big reason for Henry’s struggles is that Tennessee has faced a ton of negative game scripts this season. That hasn’t changed a ton since Will Levis took over under center.

    However, this feels like a get-right spot for Henry and the Titans. Carolina’s run defense is porous, ranking 29th in EPA while allowing the second most rushing yards per game to opposing running backs. Bryce Young and the Panthers offense are struggling mightily. This feels like a game Tennessee can jump out to an early lead for a change, and run the offense through King Henry.

    Lean: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals +1.5 (-110)

    So, let me get this straight. The Pittsburgh Steelers just lost to a rookie, third-string quarterback on the road against a divisional opponent and are now favored on the road against a divisional opponent and a backup quarterback?

    Tell me how that makes sense.

    Even without Joe Burrow, I would take Cincinnati’s offensive personnel over Cleveland’s. While Cleveland’s defense is far better than Cincinnati’s, I’m still not buying this Pittsburgh offense, even with Matt Canada no longer calling the plays. Canada was the scapegoat, and deservingly so, but the real person to point the finger at will turn out to be Kenny Pickett, who only ranks above Deshaun Watson, Daniel Jones, Bryce Young and Zach Wilson in Success Rate.

    Now, I’m not here to tell you Jake Browning is the second coming. I’m just willing to bet he’s more competent than DTR and has a better set of weapons to work with. We’ve also seen this spot favor the team with a new quarterback, as uncertainty surrounding the backup leads to value in the market. Plus, we typically see teams rally around the backup in their first start and bring a resilient effort.

    This is a lean for a reason, as there is definitely risk in backing Browning against a strong Pittsburgh defense. But I’m just not sure the gap between Browning and Pickett is that steep.

    Leave: The Thanksgiving Slate 

    This one stings, as betting on Thanksgiving football is as much of a tradition for me as eating turkey and stuffing. But this season’s Thanksgiving slate features three favorites of at least a touchdown against underdogs that I just can’t fully get behind.

    The Packers would be a legitimate bet for me if not for the rash of injury uncertainty on both sides of the ball. My lean in Dallas-Washington would be to take the points with the Commanders, who seem to play up to their competition. Dallas is also 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games on Thanksgiving. Still, the Cowboys have demolished inferior teams all season, and I’m not sure I’ll back the Commanders after the line moved 1.5 points against them Wednesday morning.

    If I had to take a Thanksgiving game, it would be the 49ers -7.0, but even that makes me queasy. I generally think the Seahawks are overrated on both sides of the ball, and think San Francisco at full strength is the far superior team. Yet, the mojo surrounding a night game in Seattle with the Seahawks catching a touchdown makes me nervous.

    So, if you want a Thanksgiving Day play, how about we tease the Lions and 49ers down to -1.5 and -1, respectively?

    Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

    View our Pick of the Day in the BettingPros mobile app (free!) >>


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