NFL Love, Like, Lean and Leave Picks & Predictions: Week 13 (2023)

by Matt Barbato |
Dec 02, 2023

Well, another week, another love bet that succumbed to incredibly bad luck.

The Buffalo Bills were the right side Sunday at Philadelphia, and if you bet the Bills early when the line was +3.5, it all worked out despite Buffaloâ€™s late-game collapse. But if you got +3 (like we did in last weekâ€™s article) or anything lower, you were likely punching the air as the Eagles scored the game-winning TD in overtime.

Oddly enough, Buffalo +3 was our first push of the year in general, but the Buffalo pushed summarized a 1-1-1 week, with Derrick Henryâ€™s rushing prop being our lone winner. An aside, I wonâ€™t be betting on Jake Browning ever again.

Letâ€™s get back to our winning ways in Week 13.

2023 record:

Loves: 4-7-1
Likes: 8-4
Leans: 7-5
Total: 19-16-1

Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>

Week 13 Love, Like, Lean Picks

Love: San Francisco 49ers (-148) moneyline at Philadelphia Eagles

Once again, weâ€™re fading the Philadelphia Eagles, who have benefitted two weeks in a row from poor late-game execution from their opponents. The Eagles deserve all the credit for going out and winning the games, but this team could just as easily have two or three fewer wins on their record.

But like last week, I donâ€™t love the value on this game as much as I did earlier in the week. The 49ers opened the week as short underdogs, but have now moved to as high as 3-point road favorites. I had grabbed the Niners at -115 earlier in the week, but still donâ€™t mind playing them on the moneyline at this juicier price.

First off, the 49ers are healthier and have motivation on their side, as this is a revenge game from last seasonâ€™s NFC Championship. San Franâ€™s offense has been a machine in the weeks since Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams returned to health. And from a matchup perspective, I think this game favors San Francisco as well.

The Eagles have some issues in the secondary, where they rank 14th in pass defense EPA. Plus, a Philly run defense that ranks 24th in EPA could be without two key cogs up the middle, Fletcher Cox and Zach Cunningham.

The 49ers just have more firepower in this matchup, and while Jalen Hurts and the Philly offense are finding ways to win, this offense just doesnâ€™t look right at times, as evidenced in the first half against Buffalo.

San Francisco is the more complete team.

Like: New York Jets vs. Atlanta Falcons Under 33.5

Iâ€™ll keep this one simple. The Jets offense is arguably the worst in football, and did not show any improvement with Tim Boyle leading the unit as opposed to Zach Wilson. Making matters worse, this is a tough matchup for a Jets offense thatâ€™ll rely heavily on tailback Breece Hall. Atlantaâ€™s defense ranks 2nd in the league in run defense EPA, which means Boyle could face his fair share of third-and-long situations. That doesnâ€™t bode well for scoring.

On the flip side, Desmond Ridder could throw the Falcons out of this game against a strong Jets pass defense. While New York hasnâ€™t been as stiff against the run, they can load up the box and dare Ridder and a mediocre Falcons passing game to beat Sauce Gardner, D.J. Reed and the Jets secondary in single coverage.

This total has steamed down considerably after opening at 36 earlier in the week. But I find it hard to see either team hitting 20 points in this one. Something along the lines of a 16-13 game in either direction feels right.

Lean: New Orleans Saints +4.5 vs. Detroit Lions

Iâ€™m a major proponent of fading Derek Carr and Dennis Allen as favorites, especially on the road. But in this case, the Saints are modest home underdogs against a Lions team that might be reeling a bit.

While Jared Goffâ€™s recent run of form against the Bears and Packers is alarming, Iâ€™m more concerned about a Detroit defense that has sneakily ranked dead-last in EPA per play since Week 7.

Itâ€™s worth noting that New Orleans may have next to nothing in terms of experience at wide receiver, as they could be without Chris Olave, Michael Thomas and Rashid Shaheed Sunday. But even so, I like the spot for a Saints team that desperately needs a win and benefits from a difficult home-field environment.

Itâ€™s a lean for a reason, and this is one of my uglier ones of the year.

Leave: Los Angeles Chargers -5.5 at New England Patriots

I mean, how can anyone bet this game? Would you rather lay a significant number on the road with Brandon Staley? Or would you prefer to take the points withâ€¦ Bailey Zappe? This game screams stay away in every sense of the phrase.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

Navigate