NFL Love, Like, Lean and Leave Picks & Predictions: Week 14 (2023)

by Matt Barbato |
Dec 09, 2023

Week 13 treated us pretty well, although we did miss out on a perfect week by a measly hook. The San Francisco 49ers imposed their will on the Philadelphia Eagles as I expected, the Jets-Falcons game was horrible in every fashion and cashed the under with ease.

Then, thereâ€™s the New Orleans Saints, who lost by five to the Detroit Lions as 4.5-point underdogs. It wouldâ€™ve been nice if Saints head coach Dennis Allen elected to go for two after New Orleans scored a late touchdown to cut the game to one possession. But asking Dennis Allen to do anything with competence might be asking too much.

All bitterness aside, we went 2-1 with our Love and Like both hitting. You canâ€™t complain too much, although I will complain about Dennis Allen as much as it takes before I feel better.

Letâ€™s keep the winning going in Week 14.

2023 record:

Loves: 5-7-1
Likes: 9-4
Leans: 7-6
Total: 21-17-1

Week 14 Love, Like, Lean Picks

Love: Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over 41 Points

This pivotal NFC South rematch has all the makings of going over the point total, which might come as a surprise given the total is as low at 40.5 in some spots. But to explain my thinking, let's look back at the first meeting between these teams in October.

The game ended 16-13 in favor of Atlanta, which on the surface is not encouraging for our over. But a deeper dive into the box score suggests this game should've flown over the total. The teams combined for 730 total yards, but also committed five total turnovers while going 1-for-7 in the red zone. Tampa Bay's defense has regressed as of late and now ranks 19th in EPA. Meanwhile, Atlanta's defense could be without cornerback AJ Terrell.

Bank on better execution in a game that could go over the total with relative ease.

Like: Cleveland Browns -3 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Browns are an incredibly tough team to gauge right now. Joe Flacco was fine in his Browns debut. But one thing is clear, the Browns probably can't count on Flacco to win them a shootout, as evidenced by last week's 29-12 loss to the Rams. The good news is, Cleveland's defense has been far more ferocious at home. The Browns are allowing an average of 10 points per game at home, compared to over 30 points per game on the road.

More importantly, this matchup suits Clevelandâ€™s defense nicely, as Jacksonvilleâ€™s offense is incredibly banged up beyond quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Key receiver Christian Kirk will miss this game, and the Jags are down to their third-string left tackle. That spells doom against an immobile quarterback in C.J. Beathard.

Iâ€™m not that big of a fan of this Jaguars team even with Lawrence healthy. Coming home off a loss, I suspect Clevelandâ€™s defense will feast to the point where Flacco wonâ€™t be asked to do too much.

Lean: Chicago Bears +3.5 vs. Detroit Lions

The total for this game has been moving like crazy, as a nasty winter storm was expected to hit Solider Field on Sunday. But as it usually happens, the early forecasts were wrong. And while it won't be a glorious day on the gridiron, temperatures in the low 30's with only moderate winds and no precipitation is completely manageable.

While I don't mind the over at 43 or better, I feel more confident in the home underdogs. Chicago's defense has shown improvement as the year's gone on, and it's gotten especially better against the pass thanks to the arrival of Montez Sweat as well as a healthier secondary.

Meanwhile, Detroit has felt shaky ever since their ridiculous comeback victory over the Bears a few weeks ago. Jared Goff hasn't looked great since that game, and Detroit's secondary is raising questions about the validity of this defense. I wouldn't be stunned if Chicago won outright. The Lions defense now ranks 20th in EPA, and 27th in pass defense EPA despite having a strong pass rushing unit.

And while Chicagoâ€™s defense still only ranks 25th in EPA, this unit has played better than Detroitâ€™s defense as of late. Since Week 7, Chicagoâ€™s defense ranks sixth in EPA per play and 8th in success rate, while Detroit ranks 29th and 31st in those categories.

Chicago has revenge on their minds after blowing a double-digit lead late in the fourth quarter in the first meeting between these teams a few weeks ago. Plus, the Bears are coming off the bye while Detroit will play its second straight road game.

Now granted, this is still a tough Bears team to trust, which is why itâ€™s a Lean. But Iâ€™d say I like this game almost if not as much as the Browns bet.

Leave: Philadelphia Eagles +3.5 at Dallas Cowboys

I know, I know, I know. Putting perhaps the marquee game of the week as my Leave is not something anyone wanted to read. But after studying this game, Iâ€™m just not sure which way to play it.

Weâ€™ve faded the Eagles the last couple of weeks in this column, and I maintain that Philadelphia still doesnâ€™t look outstanding on either side of the ball. The Cowboys have been the better team as of late, but who have they really beaten? I donâ€™t fully trust this Cowboys team to raise their game to the level of NFC elite. Itâ€™s just something I have to see, and I surely wonâ€™t lay over a field goal with them.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

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