NFL Love, Like, Lean and Leave Picks & Predictions: Week 15 (2023)

by Matt Barbato |
Dec 16, 2023

We swept the board in Week 14, with the Falcons-Buccaneers over coming through rather easily and the Chicago Bears winning straight up as underdogs over the Detroit Lions. Finally, a special shoutout to Doug Pederson, who oddly decided to go for two down four late against the Cleveland Browns to get us the cover, with Cleveland laying three against Jacksonville.

But of course, weâ€™re only as good as our most recent week. So letâ€™s try to make it two sweeps in a row in Week 15.

2023 record:

Loves: 6-7-1
Likes: 10-4
Leans: 8-6
Total: 24-17-1

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Week 15 Love, Like, Lean Picks

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Love: Washington Commanders at Los Angeles Rams Over 50.5 (-112)

Iâ€™m going back to the well and taking an over as the bet I love most in Week 15. Washingtonâ€™s defense has completely fallen apart since trading Montez Sweat and Chase Young.

Did you know the Commanders rank 32nd in defensive EPA, 32nd in pass defense EPA and 26th in pressure rate? This results from trading your top two pass rushers away, further exposing your porous secondary. Washington has also given up at least 29 points in their last four games and even gave up 17 points to a Mac Jones-led Patriots offense.

Matthew Stafford and the L.A. offense should have no trouble finding success through the air against this defense. I'm not as bullish on the Rams -6.5 because Sam Howell and the Commanders could find similar success coming off their bye week.

The Rams rank 22nd in defensive EPA, 21st in pass defense EPA and 27th in pressure rate. The Rams are also below average against the run. I'll gladly take the over up to the key number of 51, as there should be plenty of points to be had. I donâ€™t mind a play on Los Angelesâ€™ team total going over either.

Like: Chicago Bears +3 at Cleveland Browns (-112)

Iâ€™m pitting two of our Week 14 darlings against each other this week. Iâ€™ve really liked what Iâ€™ve seen from the Bears the last few weeks, specifically on defense. Chicagoâ€™s defense has been playing exceptionally well ever since the addition of Sweat, and a young secondary filled with potential is starting to play up to that very potential.

Perhaps the more significant reason I like the underdog Bears is because of the rash of injuries that continue to inflict these Browns. Cleveland put starting safety and leading tackler Grant Delpit on Injured Reserve earlier this week. They could also be without defensive end Ogbo Okoronkwo, who is second on the team in sacks, for the rest of the year.

But thatâ€™s not all; the Browns are already down tackles Jedrick Wills and Dawand Jones, and guard Joel Bitonio and center Ethan Pocic have yet to practice this week. An already short-handed Browns offensive line could be even more short-handed this weekend. That could spell trouble for an immobile Joe Flacco against an improving Bears pass rush.

Also, tight end David Njoku has curiously missed practice the last two days, which could be a big blow to Clevelandâ€™s offense if he were not to play. Njoku led Cleveland with 91 yards last week and clearly has developed a rapport with Flacco.

To top things off, Chicagoâ€™s seventh-ranked EPA run defense should be able to limit Clevelandâ€™s ground game, forcing Flacco into plenty of third-and-long situations. Chicago is a live dog capable of pulling off the upset.

Lean: Pittsburgh Steelers +1.5 at Indianapolis Colts (-108)

As disgusting as it seems, this is the spot to back the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Pittsburgh is coming off embarrassing consecutive losses to two of the league's worst teams at home. They're on the road, and the world has written them off. That's just where Mike Tomlin wants his team. The Steelers are 38-26-2 ATS as a road underdog under Tomlin. Pittsburgh is also 55-41-1 ATS off a loss and 25-19-2 with a rest advantage under Tomlin.

Sure, Mitchell Trubisky stinks, but how much worse is he than Gardner Minshew? I see Pittsburgh relying heavily on its running game against an Indianapolis defense that's declining and ranks 29th in run defense EPA. This same unit also struggled to stop a Jake Browning-led Bengals offense a week prior.

Defensively, T.J. Watt cleared concussion protocol, which gives me more than enough reason to trust this defense in a must-win game against a mistake-prone quarterback. Give me Pittsburgh.

Leave: San Francisco 49ers -12.5 at Arizona Cardinals (-112)

Thereâ€™s massive overlook potential here for San Francisco, who welcomes the Baltimore Ravens on Christmas night in what could be a Super Bowl preview. But even so, I donâ€™t have much interest in Arizona below two touchdowns, and this line seems to be moving in their direction. Iâ€™ll pass.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

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