NFL Love, Like, Lean and Leave Picks & Predictions: Week 16 (2023)

by Matt Barbato |
Dec 22, 2023

Just when it felt like we were going to get hot, we get dealt a brutal 0-2-1 week that easily couldâ€™ve been a 2-1 week.

Hand up, the Pittsburgh Steelers were the flat-out wrong call as our Lean. Iâ€™m never putting money on Mitch Trubisky again.

But we have a legitimate gripe with our Love and Like bets from Week 15. The Commanders and Rams combined for more than 700 yards, and we nearly got the over 49. But after Washington scored to make it 28-20 Los Angeles, Ron Rivera (who the game has clearly passed by) elected to take the extra point try, which was blocked, costing us a push.

Oh, and speaking of pushes, how about the Chicago Bears blowing a double-digit lead to Joe Flacco, then dropping a Hail Mary that was in Darnell Mooneyâ€™s lap to push as 3-point underdogs?

Week 15 was truly one of those weeks. Letâ€™s hope Santa can gift us a 3-0 bounce back in Week 16.

And, of course, happy holidays to all of you. Thanks for reading, following along and hopefully profiting all season long.

2023 record:

Loves: 6-8-1
Likes: 10-4-1
Leans: 8-7
Total: 24-19-2

Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>

Week 16 Love, Like, Lean Picks

Love: Atlanta Falcons (-130) vs. Indianapolis Colts

Donâ€™t spit out your eggnog. Sometimes the bets you love are the ugliest ones. And clearly, the market loves this game too. Earlier in the week, I was able to snag Atlanta as 2-point home underdogs, and the line has since flipped to Atlanta laying 2.5 points. I donâ€™t mind the Falcons at -2.5, but I would prefer the moneyline for what itâ€™s worth.

There are a few reasons I love the Falcons in this spot. First off, I think the initial line posting Atlanta as underdogs was an overreaction to Atlanta losing to Carolina last week. The Falcons controlled the game the entire way and wouldâ€™ve most likely won if not for a howler of an interception by Desmond Ridder in the red zone that gave Carolina life.

Atlantaâ€™s also been in pretty much every game, but late-game blunders (mostly by Ridder) have killed them late. Atlantaâ€™s last four losses have all come by five points or fewer.

Speaking of Ridder, heâ€™s benched once again for Taylor Heinicke, who offers a similarly risky profile but a far higher ceiling for this offense. In this instance, I like the quarterback change.

I also like the matchup for this Falcons defense. Sure, Jonathan Taylor could be back for Indy, but the Falcons rank second in the league in run defense EPA and could get defensive lineman David Onyemata back from injury. Atlanta has also been respectable against the pass, ranking 14th in adjusted net yards per pass attempt allowed.

Iâ€™m also just not a believer in this Colts team. Shane Steichen has done a tremendous job amidst the quarterback uncertainty. But since November, Indyâ€™s wins have come against Mitch Trubisky, Will Levis, Baker Mayfield, Mac Jones, and Bryce Young.

Maybe Indy will beat up on another mediocre QB in Heinicke, but I just have a hard time seeing a defense that ranks 23rd in adjusted net yards per pass attempt allowed and 28th in run defense EPA keeping this up. I also suspect Gardner Minshew is due for some turnover regression, as heâ€™s gotten away with plenty of turnover-worthy throws recently.

Iâ€™ll fly with the Falcons in whatâ€™ll surely be another nail-biter.

Like: Minnesota Vikings +3 vs. Detroit Lions

I really like the spot here for Minnesota, who comes back home in a desperate spot after falling to the Cincinnati Bengals in a game they shouldâ€™ve won.

This will also be the first time Jared Goff sees Minnesotaâ€™s new-look defense under Brian Flores. The unit ranks top-five in DVOA, and is predicated on exotic blitz packages. Minnesota has blitzed on 47.7% of its plays this season, the highest rate in the NFL. That spells doom for Goff, who ranks 29th out of 41 quarterbacks against the blitz, according to ProFootballFocus. The Vikings also rank seventh in run defense EPA and could bottle up the David Montgomery-Jahmyr Gibbs tandem.

Granted, Iâ€™m putting money on Nick Mullens after his ridiculous performance last week against the Cincinnati Bengals. But Mullens covered last weekend, depending on what number you got. And I think he can do enough with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson against a Lions defense that now ranks 28th in EPA pass defense.

Lean: Green Bay Packers-Carolina Panthers Over 37.5

This is another bet thatâ€™s gross on the surface but has also moved in my direction. I got this at 36 earlier in the week, and saw it steam up to 37.5 Wednesday night. I donâ€™t like it as much across the key number of 37, but I still feel good about it even at this inflated number.

This bet is predicated entirely on the two defenses. Believe it or not, Carolina has the better defense in this game, ranking 18th in EPA. Meanwhile, Green Bayâ€™s defense has fallen off a cliff, ranking 25th in EPA. There have been calls for defensive coordinator Joe Berryâ€™s job, as the unit has given up more than 800 combined yards and at least 24 points in consecutive weeks to Tommy DeVito and Baker Mayfield.

Granted, maybe Iâ€™m asking a lot out of Bryce Young, who I think is a colossal bust, and this putrid Panthers offense to muster up two touchdowns to do their share. But the Packers are below average when it comes to sacking the quarterback and are allowing 4.6 yards per carry. That means the Panthers should be able to stay in manageable down-and-distances and keep Young upright.

As for the Packers, I donâ€™t see them having any issues getting to 20 points here, something the team has done in six of its last seven games against far superior defenses.

Leave: Eggnog

Eggnog has always grossed me out, and thatâ€™s especially true when I see relatives at my Christmas celebrations using it as a mixer in alcoholic beverages. Yuck. Pass. Iâ€™m out.

Enjoy your holidays, everyone, hopefully without eggnog!

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

Transform your betting strategy with Automated Line Tracking across all major markets and sports >>

Navigate