NFL Love, Like, Lean and Leave Picks & Predictions: Week 2 (2023)

by Matt Barbato |
Sep 15, 2023

We couldnâ€™t have asked for a better start to this series. Our Love, Like, and Lean all came through relatively easy, as the Browns, Packers and Buccaneers all won straight up as underdogs, giving us a 3-0 start.

Now, it surely wonâ€™t be so pretty every week. But letâ€™s hope we can keep the momentum churning. Week 2 tends to be a week of overreactions, offering plenty of opportunities to buy low on teams that struggled in Week 1 and sell high on teams that exceeded expectations in the first week of action.

Here are my Love, Like, Lean and Leave for Week 2.

NFL Week 2 Love, Like, Lean and Leave

Week 2 Bet I Love: Cincinnati Bengals -3 vs. Baltimore Ravens

Iâ€™m not sure what to say about Cincinnatiâ€™s Week 1 performance. You could chalk it up to Joe Burrow being rusty after missing most of camp with a calf injury or subpar weather conditions. But if you read last weekâ€™s article, you wouldnâ€™t be surprised by this result.

Cleveland has given Burrow and this Bengals offense fits throughout his young career, and the hiring of Jim Schwartz as defensive coordinator already paid enormous dividends in Clevelandâ€™s dominant win.

But now the Bengals will get the chance to bounce back at home against a Ravens team theyâ€™re more familiar with schematically. After losing his first start as a rookie, Burrow has since won three out of his last four games against Baltimore, with all three victories coming by double digits.

There are several reasons why I like the Bengals to bounce back and cover against their AFC North foes. The first is that Baltimore could be without both cornerback Marlon Humphrey, one of their most important defensive players, as well as tight end Mark Andrews. Being without both would be very detrimental.

I also wasnâ€™t really impressed by much Baltimore did in a 25-9 win over the Houston Texans at home. Sure, Baltimore covered, but Lamar Jackson didnâ€™t look comfortable in Baltimoreâ€™s new offense, throwing for just 169 yards and a bad red zone interception. Baltimore only averaged 4.6 yards per play, turned the ball over twice and committed 13 penalties.

And again, this was all against a Houston team with a rookie head coach and quarterback, along with an offensive line that was battered by injuries. Baltimore also surrendered four sacks to a Houston defense lacking many stars.

The Bengals have matched up well with the Ravens the last couple of seasons. And while Baltimoreâ€™s offense is still a bit of an unknown, it looks to be going through growing pains and now has to replace J.K. Dobbins at running back.

Cincinnati -3 is starting to disappear from the market, so try to lock this in before it moves off the key number.

And hey, how about a prop bet? Jaâ€™Marr Chase has caught at least seven balls in each of his four meetings with the Ravens. Especially without Humphrey, Iâ€™m bullish on Chaseâ€™s over props for receptions and receiving yards.

Week 2 Bet I Like: Seattle Seahawks +5.5 at Detroit Lions

I get it.

Detroit beat the defending world champs on their home field and benefit from a long week of preparation. Seattle threw up all over themselves at home against a Rams team that wasnâ€™t highly regarded entering the season.

But when I say Week 2 is all about buying low and selling high, this is exactly what I mean. If I had to say whether this was a buy low or sell high spot, Iâ€™d say itâ€™s both, but more a sell high on Detroit.

Give Detroit all the credit in the world for winning last Thursday night. But the Lions benefitted from playing a Kansas City team without Travis Kelce and Chris Jones, its second and third-best players. The Lions also scored one of their touchdowns off a complete fluke of a pick-six that shouldâ€™ve never happened.

I also thought Jared Goff looked unsettled most of the night. And while Amon-Ra St. Brown is an awesome weapon out of the slot, the Lions desperately lack a reliable option on the outside. Josh Reynolds, Kalif Raymond and Marvin Jones just donâ€™t cut it, and could cause defenses to clog the middle of the field and dare Goff to beat them at the boundaries. It also wouldnâ€™t stun me if the Seahawks look for ways to match up top cornerback Riq Woolen against St. Brown and take their chances elsewhere.

Lookahead lines had this at Detroit -2.5. Now, we are getting three more points on a Seattle team that was widely regarded as a playoff contender. The Seahawks are 51-35-3 as an underdog under Pete Carroll, while Detroit is in a rare situation as a significant home favorite.

Iâ€™d take this as far as Seattle +3.

Week 2 Bet I Lean On: Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Chris Jones is back, and I suspect Travis Kelce will be back too. And as I discussed above, thatâ€™s massive for this Chiefâ€™s team. But I also love Patrick Mahomesâ€™ matchup against a suspect Jaguars pass defense that allowed Anthony Richardson to throw for 223 yards in his NFL debut. While the Jaguars got the cover over the Colts, they averaged only five yards per play.

I was able to get this at Chiefs -2.5, and the line has steamed a full point since then. There could be more movement in Kansas Cityâ€™s direction if Kelce is announced in, so keep a close eye and be ready to pounce should Kelce be announced as active.

While backing road favorites typically isnâ€™t my style, Iâ€™ll take my chances on the Chiefs bouncing back.

Week 2 Game Iâ€™m Leaving Alone: Cleveland Browns -2.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers

I considered a handful of games here involving home dogs, like New York-Arizona and New Orleans-Carolina. But Iâ€™m once again tempted by the Steelers as a home underdog. However, Pittsburghâ€™s offense looked pretty horrendous and now doesnâ€™t have Diontae Johnson. While Iâ€™m a massive believer in this Browns defense under Schwartzâ€™s guidance, I still donâ€™t fully trust Deshaun Watson to lay points on the road with him.

This is a buy-low/sell-high spot that I just canâ€™t quite get behind.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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