NFL Love, Like, Lean and Leave Picks & Predictions: Week 5 (2023)

I’d like to open up this week’s Love, Like and Lean picks with some lyrics from the song “I Want to Know What Love Is,” by Foreigner.

“I wanna know what love is… I want you to show me… I wanna feel what love is… I know you can show me.” 

• Loves: 1-3
• Likes: 3-1
• Leans: 4-0
• Total: 8-4

NFL Week 5 Love, Like, Lean and Leave

Love: James Conner Over 58.5 Rushing Yards

Once again, my love bet involves the Bengals. But this time, I’m not factoring in Burrow and the offense. Instead, I’m going to target a Cincinnati run defense that’s been atrocious.

Cincinnati’s run defense has allowed 5.1 yards per rush attempt, 157 rushing yards per game, and is 29th in expected points added. Meanwhile, Arizona’s running attack ranks fifth in EPA and second in yards per rush attempt.

Looking at Conner specifically, he’s cleared this prop in three of his first four games, the lone exception being last week’s loss to San Francisco. However, Conner still rushed for 52 yards on 11 carries in a game Arizona was constantly trailing and was forced to become one-dimensional.

I don’t anticipate a similar game script against a Bengals offense that clearly looks stuck in the mud and a defense that’s still meshing with new personnel in the secondary. This number feels a tad low, as Conner is playing some of the best football of his career.

Like: Atlanta Falcons -1.5 vs. Houston Texans

This feels like your classic buy-low, sell-high NFL spot. Remember when the Falcons were 2-0 and among the league’s darlings? How quickly we forget, as Atlanta has dropped two straight in unimpressive fashion to the Detroit Lions and Jacksonville Jaguars.

Meanwhile, Houston and C.J. Stroud are the talk of the NFL after two straight convincing wins over the Jaguars and Pittsburgh Steelers.

So why am I buying the free-falling team against the ascending one? A few reasons.

First of all, the matchup against the Jaguars was far more favorable for Houston than Atlanta. Jacksonville’s run defense is a strength, while its pass defense is below average at best. That played into the hands of Stroud and wound up killing the Falcons with Desmond Ridder at the helm. Stroud threw for 280 yards and two touchdowns against Jacksonville two weeks ago, while the Falcons offense was held back by Ridder, who threw 31 times for 191 yards, one touchdown, and two costly picks.

That being said, Atlanta still averaged 5.8 yards per rush against Jacksonville. The problem was Ridder, who simply couldn’t make enough throws to sustain drives and keep Atlanta within striking distance after falling into an early hole.

There’s no doubt Houston has the advantage at quarterback. However, this matchup sets up well for exactly what Atlanta wants to accomplish. The Texans’ run defense is yielding 4.4 yards per rush and ranks 23rd in EPA. It was just two weeks ago that Zach Moss ran for 88 yards on 18 carries against this Houston defense. Imagine what Bijan Robinson will do.

Ultimately, the Falcons should be able to stay ahead of the chains with their ground game, putting Ridder into far more favorable situations and play-action opportunities.

Defensively, I expect Atlanta’s front seven to constantly harass Stroud. The Falcons rank fourth in the league in pressure rate and are average in blitz rate. They should be able to get home against a Texans offensive line that just lost its fourth starter to injury after guard Kenyon Green was placed on injured reserve. And if Houston tries to establish the run, it could struggle against a Falcons front that tops the league in EPA run defense.

The biggest question to this bet is Ridder. But I suspect he’ll have a short leash if he struggles early. And if Arthur Smith makes the move to backup Taylor Heinicke, I think it adds more variance to this Atlanta offense. While Heinicke’s a much bigger risk-taker, he also gives the Falcons a higher ceiling than Ridder.

I’ll take the Falcons as a cheap home favorite in a get-right spot.

Lean: Minnesota Vikings vs. Kansas City Chiefs Over 52.5 Points

Here we go, another Vikings home over hanging around the low-50s. But at least this week, it’s our lean, and not our love, which means it’ll surely hit.

This game features two of the five blitz-heaviest defenses against two quarterbacks who perform quite well against the blitz.

Something has to give, right? And I suspect it’ll be the scoreboard.

Minnesota’s defense is just dreadful. Despite blitzing on 57% of opposing dropbacks, Minnesota generates pressure at a 17% clip. The Vikings rank 26th in adjusted net yards per pass attempt allowed and 24th in EPA pass defense. Sure, the Vikings rank seventh in EPA run defense, but that doesn’t matter a ton against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.

Minnesota doesn’t have the personnel to get pressure with four, which means defensive coordinator Brian Flores will have to dial up some pressure. But sending extra rushers has burnt opponents in the past, as Mahomes has a 50% success rate against the blitz this season, which is just ridiculously good. But if Flores decides to sit back and drop seven back, Mahomes should have no problem picking a pitiful secondary apart.

Meanwhile, Minnesota’s defense will likely have to play fast and in keep-up/catch-up mode, which isn’t exactly a bad thing for this offense. Minnesota still has a high-octane passing game and will get a Chiefs defense that allowed Zach Wilson to throw for 245 yards and two touchdowns in his best professional game.

After last weekend’s afternoon slate might’ve prompted you to take a nap, I suspect we get fireworks in this matchup.

Leave: New Orleans Saints +1 at New England Patriots 

This game just stinks. The Saints and Patriots offenses are both struggling mightily. And while taking New England as a really short home favorite makes sense, I can’t justify it, given the injuries New England has suffered at cornerback. That being said, I don’t trust a banged-up Derek Carr to take advantage on the road, even with a highly talented group at receiver. Just a total stay away for me.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

• NFL Week 5 Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)
• NFL Week 5 Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Jaguars vs. Bills (London)
• MLB Best Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
• MLB Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions
• 2023 Bank of America ROVAL 400: NASCAR at Charlotte Odds, Picks & Predictions

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