NFL Love, Like, Lean and Leave Picks & Predictions: Week 7 (2023)

by Matt Barbato |
Oct 21, 2023

Week 6 was an unmitigated disaster, one where we couldnâ€™t catch a single break. But our Week 6 losses can teach us a very valuable lesson.

Our Love, the over in Ravens-Titans, was sabotaged by the two teams going a combined 2-for-10 in the red zone. Then our Like, Patriots +3, went down in flames when Mac Jones inexplicably took a safety on their final drive to lose by four. To top it off, the Colts never came close, as Gardner Minshew was an absolute mess.

Unbelievable. Outrageous. Unlucky. Thatâ€™s what it ultimately came down to. If Iâ€™m dead wrong on a bet, like Indianapolis last week, so be it. If I misread the game, I can live with that. But for me, and Iâ€™m sure plenty of bettors, thereâ€™s nothing more frustrating than when you get a pick right but are undermined by terrible fortune.

This is why itâ€™s critical in sports betting to have a short memory when things go well or wrong. But I understand that keeping emotions out of betting is much easier said than done. And when things go wrong, itâ€™s easy to want to chase your losses or, even worse, put an aggressively high bet on an upcoming game to try and win it all back.

Take it from experience: Thatâ€™s the worst possible thing you can do. I have tilted before, and Iâ€™ve rarely won on those games where Iâ€™ve done so. And then Iâ€™ve felt even worse.

So, before we get into actual picks, let me leave you with some friendly advice.

If you feel the urge to tilt or chase, just cash out. It turns a negative into a positive, as youâ€™re avoiding blowing your bankroll and holding onto whatever money is left in your accounts. Plus, it prevents you from making poor decisions as you desperately attempt to win back your losses.

Itâ€™s not easy, and Iâ€™m here to listen to anyone who needs to vent about a brutal loss. Hit me up on Twitter @RealMattBarbato anytime.

Now, letâ€™s get into the picks. It can only go up from here, right?

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Week 7 Love, Like, Lean Picks

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Love: Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 vs. Miami Dolphins (-115)

Betting against this insanely good Miami offense is a scary proposition, but there are a few reasons why Iâ€™m doing it.

First off, Miamiâ€™s offense is a juggernaut thatâ€™ll get theirs essentially every single week. But Iâ€™m curious how Tua Tagovailoa performs against a Philadelphia defense with a fearsome front seven thatâ€™ll be highly motivated after last weekâ€™s loss to the New York Jets.

The Eagles rank fourth in the league in pressure rate, and we recently saw Miamiâ€™s offense struggle against a Bills defense that leads the league in pressure rate. In that game, Miami scored on its first two drives but only put up points on one of its ensuing nine drives, as Tagovailoa was sacked four times.

I also think this is a good spot for Philadelphiaâ€™s offense to get right after a four-turnover meltdown against the Jets last week. While Miamiâ€™s defense does generate pressure at a high rate, Miami ranks 24th in adjusted net yards per pass attempt allowed and 26th in expected points added on run defense. I suspect weâ€™ll see Philadelphiaâ€™s offense prioritize the ground game, as well as quick passes in space to its top playmakers, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.

The weather also could benefit Philadelphia, as temps could drop into the 40s, with winds gusting up to 35 miles per hour throughout the game.

Ultimately, I trust Philadelphiaâ€™s defense to get a couple more spots in this potential Super Bowl preview.

Like: New York Giants +3 vs. Washington Commanders (-118)

The Giants showed some serious heart in a gutsy loss to the Buffalo Bills that easily couldâ€™ve been a win. But most importantly, New Yorkâ€™s offense was fine with Tyrod Taylor under center for Daniel Jones. Dare I say it was better?

Now it helped that New York got Saquon Barkley back from injury last Sunday night. Barkley could have a ton of success against a Commanders defense that ranks 31st in run defense EPA and is yielding 4.6 yards per carry. I expect Brian Daboll to devise a game plan emphasizing Barkley early and often. This should set up Taylor for success in shorter down and distances with quick passes against a Commanders front that can get after the quarterback.

Conversely, I donâ€™t trust Sam Howell, especially as a road divisional favorite. Howell has taken a ton of sacks and is one of the worst quarterbacks in the league against pressure. Giants defensive coordinator Wink Martindale must be licking his lips in anticipation of Sunday as New York blitzes at the fourth-heaviest rate in the league. After a spirited effort against Josh Allen and Buffalo, Iâ€™m banking on New Yorkâ€™s defense building off that momentum and devising a game plan that forces a couple of mistakes out of Howell.

Lean: Los Angeles Chargers +5.5 at Kansas City Chiefs (-110)

Betting on Brandon Staley isnâ€™t fun, but all Los Angeles does is play close games. All of L.A.â€™s games this season have been decided by single digits, and this series has been awfully tight recently, with last yearâ€™s contests both being decided by a field goal.

The Chargers have been a tough matchup for the Chiefs because they have the firepower to keep up with Patrick Mahomesâ€™ unit. But whatâ€™s especially important this year is that Los Angeles has allowed the fourth-fewest yards to opposing tight ends this season. Shutting down Travis Kelce is critical to beating this yearâ€™s version of the Chiefs, who lack proven threats on the outside.

Going on the road after another brutal loss in primetime is a tough spot for the Chargers, but I ultimately think this game will be tight until Los Angeles does something silly and sets up Kansas City for a game-winning field goal.

Leave: Las Vegas Raiders -2.5 at Chicago Bears (-115)

You just canâ€™t get me to bet on a game between Brian Hoyer/Aidan Oâ€™Connell vs. Tyson Bagent. The Raiders should and probably will start the veteran Hoyer here, but I canâ€™t put my hard-earned money on Josh McDaniels as a road favorite. Meanwhile, Bagent looked completely lost in relief of Justin Fields last week, but perhaps heâ€™s somewhat competent with a week to prepare as the teamâ€™s starter?

Just stay away.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

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