NFL Love, Like, Lean and Leave Picks & Predictions: Week 8 (2023)

by Matt Barbato |
Oct 28, 2023

Finally, after weeks of awful beats, my Week 7 bet I loved came through in a relatively sweat-free fashion. Thanks to the Philadelphia Eagles, we ended the losing streak and bounced back with a 2-1 week.

Now, itâ€™s time to build on that momentum and go on a winning streak. Hereâ€™s my Week 8 Love, Like, Lean and Leave.

2023 record:

Loves: 2-5
Likes: 5-2
Leans: 4-3
Total: 11-10

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Week 8 Love, Like, Lean Picks

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Love: New England Patriots +9.5 at Miami Dolphins (-108)

Full disclosure: It wasnâ€™t easy finding a game I love this week. Of the games I liked, this spread was my favorite. Once again, weâ€™re fading the Dolphins in the Love slot with a Patriots team that mightâ€™ve turned a corner last week against the Buffalo Bills.

Now, Iâ€™m not here to say Mac Jones is a great quarterback who will take New England to the playoffs. But the Patriots saw noticeable improvement along the offensive line, namely due to the return of Cole Strange. New England kept a strong Bills pass rush at bay, allowing just one sack and two hits on Jones. This Pats offensive line is getting healthy and gaining continuity, which is critical against a Dolphins pass rush that ranks sixth in pressure rate.

Everything just looked better with this New England offense, as Bill Oâ€™Brien created a game plan predicated on getting the ball out early, which is an entirely sustainable plan for success.

Defensively, New England has already held Miami to its second-lowest yardage output of the year earlier in the season. Miamiâ€™s offense is also banged up along the offensive line, with three starters potentially out. There are also some significant winds forecasted in Miami on Sunday afternoon, which doesnâ€™t help Miamiâ€™s aerial attack. Sure, Jalen Ramsey will make his Dolphins debut, but I assume Miami will tread cautiously in his first game back from a knee injury.

Iâ€™m not going to say the Patriots are a good team, but theyâ€™re good enough to cover this massive number on the road.

Like: Cleveland Browns at Seattle Seahawks Under 37.5 (-112)

Sometimes, you just get a hunch, and Iâ€™ve got a hunch that this Browns-Seahawks game will be ugly. It helps that P.J. Walker will be under center again, but I also suspect Seattleâ€™s offense could have trouble moving the ball.

Itâ€™s now well known that Cleveland has arguably the best defense in the NFL, which ranks second in EPA. That unit just served up 38 points to Gardner Minshew and the Colts, and Iâ€™m expecting a locked-in effort from Jim Schwartzâ€™s group. Cleveland is second in the league in pressure rate and could have a ton of success against a Seattle offensive line thatâ€™s been in flux much of the year. And weâ€™ve seen Geno Smith crumble under duress this season, most recently against the Cincinnati Bengals.

Both teams also rank top-10 defensively in run defense EPA, so I donâ€™t expect either team to find much success on the ground. To top it off, both teams are pretty banged up at the skill positions. Cleveland could be without starting running back Jerome Ford, leaving veteran Kareem Hunt to handle the bulk of the duties. Meanwhile, D.K. Metcalf should return after a one-week absence, but Tyler Lockett and Ken Walker both havenâ€™t practiced yet this week.

In a battle between two top-1o defenses and two short-handed offenses, Iâ€™ll take a shot on this game being ugly.

Lean: Cincinnati Bengals +3.5 at San Francisco 49ers (-110)

I took the Bengals +3.5 once news broke that Brock Purdy was in concussion protocol, but the line has jumped up to as high as +4.5 in some spots with word that Purdy was present at practice Thursday. I'm still operating under the assumption that Sam Darnold starts on Sunday, as teams have been far more conservative with the concussion protocol this season.

But even if Purdy plays, I still like the Bengals to keep this game within a field goal, if not win outright. I suspect Joe Burrow is at or awfully close to full strength after the bye. Meanwhile, it's the 49ers who are dealing with a bevy of injuries, as there's a decent chance both Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel will miss this game, too. Burrow and the Bengals are 13-6 ATS as a road underdog, and I like the spot for Cincinnati coming off of its bye week against a 49ers team that played last Monday night.

A healthy Burrow should have no trouble attacking a 49ers secondary that couldnâ€™t get Kirk Cousins off the field a week ago. Iâ€™m banking on Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo coming in with a stellar game plan off the bye week against a shorthanded 49ers offense that could lack firepower.

Leave: New Orleans Saints -2.0 at Indianapolis Colts (-110)

These are just two teams I havenâ€™t had a read on all year. And I definitely donâ€™t know what to expect in a battle between Derek Carr and Gardner Minshew. Pass.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

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